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Post-Game Talk: #10 | Sabres at Flyers | November 1, 2023 | Hart-less

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bennysflyers16 said:
Missing chance after chance

Maybe a historically awful PP

Your definition of very good is very generous.


They haven’t even lost 6 straight.
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Can a player play a very good hockey game if he ends up off the scoresheet?
 
Tripod said:
Remember, the underlying stats say this team is playing much better so this year is different than past years.
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Wasn’t last year when they got lambasted for terrible underlying metrics and how poorly they were playing but getting good results that this forum went on the holier then thou rant?

This year when their metrics are fantastic and they aren’t getting the result isn’t different?

Last year was all about how much they suck and will lose because of reversion to the mean based on poor metrics, could the same not hold true in opposite now?
 
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thedjpd said:
Wasn’t last year when they got lambasted for terrible underlying metrics and how poorly they were playing but getting good results that this forum went on the holier then thou rant?

This year when their metrics are fantastic and they aren’t getting the result isn’t different?

Last year was all about how much they suck and will lose because of reversion to the mean based on poor metrics, could the same not hold true in opposite now?
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When the Flyers win, but the metrics are bad, the metrics are proof they are playing poorly.

When the Flyers lose, but the metrics are strong, the loss is evidence the Flyers are playing poorly & the metrics mean nothing.
 
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I think some people here didn't watch the game.

Flyers came out cold again, this time it was for thirteen minutes, then the Flyers absolutely dominated the rest of the way. Problem was too many mistakes and missed opportunities, what you'd expect from a young team.

First goal allowed was a bad cross ice pass by Farabee, and a bad job of Zamula on a 3 on 2.
Second goal, disallowed, was a bad decision by Couts to throw it at the net with two Flyers in deep, ended up 5 on 3.
Second goal, Hart failed to block a pass in front of the net.
Third goal, Sanheim badly played a 3 on 2.
Fourth goal, Cates threw it up the boards, intercepted, goal.

Meanwhile, Flyers were peppering the goal, just missing great scoring opportunities.
Foerster must feel snakebit, Laughton passed b/c he's got 27 shots without a goal and is getting gun shy. Cates is trying to poke the puck into the net while tripping over the goalie. And so on.

This is very different than last season, when the team couldn't play even until the second half of the season. Now they're out shooting and out chancing most opponents - they're learning how good they can be once they learn how to finish plays. Them are the growing pains of a young team.
 
deadhead said:
I think some people here didn't watch the game.

Flyers came out cold again, this time it was for thirteen minutes, then the Flyers absolutely dominated the rest of the way. Problem was too many mistakes and missed opportunities, what you'd expect from a young team.

First goal allowed was a bad cross ice pass by Farabee, and a bad job of Zamula on a 3 on 2.
Second goal, disallowed, was a bad decision by Couts to throw it at the net with two Flyers in deep, ended up 5 on 3.
Second goal, Hart failed to block a pass in front of the net.
Third goal, Sanheim badly played a 3 on 2.
Fourth goal, Cates threw it up the boards, intercepted, goal.

Meanwhile, Flyers were peppering the goal, just missing great scoring opportunities.
Foerster must feel snakebit, Laughton passed b/c he's got 27 shots without a goal and is getting gun shy. Cates is trying to poke the puck into the net while tripping over the goalie. And so on.

This is very different than last season, when the team couldn't play even until the second half of the season. Now they're out shooting and out chancing most opponents - they're learning how good they can be once they learn how to finish plays. Them are the growing pains of a young team.
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I'm not saying they are the same team as last season, healthy Couts alone makes them much better.

But Buffalo looked terrible for the majority of this game. They couldn't even complete simple passes in the 2nd, and dominating that team needs to be graded on a curve.
 
You are talking about the Buffalo team that tanked and is full of high draft picks?
Cozens #7
Dahlin #1
MIttlestadt #8
Power #1
Girgensons #14
Kreps #17 (from Vegas in the Eichel deal)
as well as Tuch and Thompson
 
thedjpd said:
Wasn’t last year when they got lambasted for terrible underlying metrics and how poorly they were playing but getting good results that this forum went on the holier then thou rant?

This year when their metrics are fantastic and they aren’t getting the result isn’t different?

Last year was all about how much they suck and will lose because of reversion to the mean based on poor metrics, could the same not hold true in opposite now?
Click to expand...
Can't you just enjoy the losses? ;)
 
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I can enjoy the losses b/c the fact they're out playing most of their opponents means they have a solid core, add a couple skilled players and you have a playoff team.

I think York, Foerster and Brink will improve with experience,
Not sure how much upside Zamula has, I'll be happy if he becomes a reliable 3LHD.
Add a couple forwards who can finish and a top 4 D-man and this team could be pretty good.
 
deadhead said:
You are talking about the Buffalo team that tanked and is full of high draft picks?
Cozens #7
Dahlin #1
MIttlestadt #8
Power #1
Girgensons #14
Kreps #17 (from Vegas in the Eichel deal)
as well as Tuch and Thompson
Click to expand...
Well first of all this was one game, so jot that down.

Second, do you think Buffalo is a good team or a bad team? I honestly don't know.
 
BernieParent said:
Can't you just enjoy the losses? ;)
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Haha

I'm a bit different than some. I do agree middle ground is death, but I like seeing them play well because it means that young-ish players are developing.

For example, I've always liked Sanheim but he has definitely been fool's gold inconsistent so far in his career - highly talented, but unable to put it all together. Did the trade rumors and attempt to move him wake him up to really taking himself seriously? It sure seems like it. Did the Flyers luck out in not being able to move him? Absolutely. But the reality is always that you need some of those lucky breaks.

The Devils sucked for a bit and picked up Hughes x2 and Hischer. The Rangers sucked and got Kakko and Laf. We know this type of plight all too well - at least Patrick is injury riddled.

You have to have some positive bits of luck. If the Flyers make the playoffs this year, it's because of basically:

Sanheim proving he's a #1 D. Which makes the urgency of drafting one a lot less critical because he can play this way for at least 6 years. Elite talent.

Konecny continues his torried pace and becomes an 80-90 point, 40 goal player. Elite talent.

Frost, Tippett or other players have emerged as legit top-end talents.

Hart continues to be awesome. Elite talent.

Suddenly we go from a team devout of high end talent to having a 3-4 pieces of "high end" - isn't that what we're trying to draft? Maybe? On a prayer?

Continue that path, move off additional expendable pieces if possible and look for the right quantity for quality trade that may come around. We don't need to commit to staying at the bottom.

I'll tell you - I'm not a huge Torts fan, but this team has had a huge work ethic issue for a long time (Sans maybe Giroux). I think that much is evident.

Watch all the elite teams - Carolina, Boston - they WORK HARD. So having that be the expectation is a big step up.

If they naturally just suck ass and bottom out, great, all for it. But I'm not going to root for losses because that has it's own consequences. You can't just reverse that.

It'll take years to accumulate the talent, then more years to hopefully get that losers' mindset out, then maybe more luck to have it all come together. For years now we've been saying: "The Sabers are going to own! Look at all that talent they've acquired! Arizona is going to rock! Anaheim is going to rock!" They're all still towards the bottom and have bean acquiring 'high end talent' for years. Both ways require a lot of luck and right circumstances.
 
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As a line, the Farabee-Frost-TK line played together for only 2:07, but they lead the team in raw xGF.

I am not sitting here saying that’s an elite line, but has been clearly their best offensive line the ~3 times a year they are put together. Hopefully they are actually left together for next game.
 
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Flyers looked really good in stretches.

My fun factor players last night - Sanheim, Brink, Foerster, Walker.

Ersson gives me no confidence.
 
After 10 games, Flyers are 7th in xGF% (5x5).

Schedule has been a little weak, Dallas (1), Edmonton (3), Carolina (9), Vegas (19), Buffalo (21), Ottawa (23), Anaheim (24), CBJ (25), Vancouver (27), Minnesota (28) in xGF%.

Still, a good start in terms of basic play.
Typical Torts team, aggressive play, create scoring chances, give up scoring chances.
They need to finish better, some of that is talent, some of that is lack of experience.

Even with the PP struggles, +1 overall on STs.
Goalie Sv% of .875 ain't gonna cut it. PDO 97.5.
 
thedjpd said:
Haha

I'm a bit different than some. I do agree middle ground is death, but I like seeing them play well because it means that young-ish players are developing.

For example, I've always liked Sanheim but he has definitely been fool's gold inconsistent so far in his career - highly talented, but unable to put it all together. Did the trade rumors and attempt to move him wake him up to really taking himself seriously? It sure seems like it. Did the Flyers luck out in not being able to move him? Absolutely. But the reality is always that you need some of those lucky breaks.

The Devils sucked for a bit and picked up Hughes x2 and Hischer. The Rangers sucked and got Kakko and Laf. We know this type of plight all too well - at least Patrick is injury riddled.

You have to have some positive bits of luck. If the Flyers make the playoffs this year, it's because of basically:

Sanheim proving he's a #1 D. Which makes the urgency of drafting one a lot less critical because he can play this way for at least 6 years. Elite talent.

Konecny continues his torried pace and becomes an 80-90 point, 40 goal player. Elite talent.

Frost, Tippett or other players have emerged as legit top-end talents.

Hart continues to be awesome. Elite talent.

Suddenly we go from a team devout of high end talent to having a 3-4 pieces of "high end" - isn't that what we're trying to draft? Maybe? On a prayer?

Continue that path, move off additional expendable pieces if possible and look for the right quantity for quality trade that may come around. We don't need to commit to staying at the bottom.

I'll tell you - I'm not a huge Torts fan, but this team has had a huge work ethic issue for a long time (Sans maybe Giroux). I think that much is evident.

Watch all the elite teams - Carolina, Boston - they WORK HARD. So having that be the expectation is a big step up.

If they naturally just suck ass and bottom out, great, all for it. But I'm not going to root for losses because that has it's own consequences. You can't just reverse that.

It'll take years to accumulate the talent, then more years to hopefully get that losers' mindset out, then maybe more luck to have it all come together. For years now we've been saying: "The Sabers are going to own! Look at all that talent they've acquired! Arizona is going to rock! Anaheim is going to rock!" They're all still towards the bottom and have bean acquiring 'high end talent' for years. Both ways require a lot of luck and right circumstances.
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Thanks for your reply, djpd. I agree that their overall play has been a bright light so far this season and several young players are getting good experience. Plus, luck is a huge factor in teams' success and the Flyers have been a decade worth of Friday the 13ths to date.

In the hypothetical that they squeeze into the playoffs, there may be one or more of the conclusions you outlined, although I wouldn't overuse 'elite' as a natural outcome for players who contribute significantly to it. This level of success has several benefits but also detriments: not only would the Flyers' draft position be much further back than expected, making the choice of a true top-line / pairing player much more difficult, but it would also likely mean that few to no players would be traded away at the TDL for much-needed picks and prospects, with the non-zero chance of dealing P&P away for a playoff push. I also can't see how a surprise playoff appearance doesn't change the (already questionable) commitment to a comprehensive rebuild.

There is also the question of cap space. Hart and Konecny becoming consistently high-end / 'elite' contributors to the Flyers' roster for the next several years means that they will be getting significant increases in pay. Although the cap is projected to recommence a steady increase, this team has historically been very poor in cap management and we have to account for paying them through their peak years into age-related decline.

Having 3-4 high-end pieces is almost certainly far below the bar for a team that not only can consistently make the playoffs but has a good chance of competing for a Cup over the next decade. IMHO, for the Flyers to be a perennial SC contender, the FO needs to add 3-4 high-end prospects over the next couple of years in addition to those they have in the franchise, particularly on defense.
 
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Curufinwe said:
No he didn't. Sanheim was defending three Buffalo forwards coming in at high speed alongside a helpless Bobby Brink because York made an awful pinch where he didn't get close to the puck.
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You are fake news,,,


Apparently:)

So team is playing “Really good” according to the toxic twins , yet we have lost 5 of 6.

Can we admit that they are 3-5 years away or no.
 
Curufinwe said:
No he didn't. Sanheim was defending three Buffalo forwards coming in at high speed alongside a helpless Bobby Brink because York made an awful pinch where he didn't get close to the puck.
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Sanheim crossed over instead of holding his lane, it was his mistake.

He's made a lot of good plays, but has been a PP killer at times, like skating around with the puck for 30 seconds before being stripped, and then a stupid cross check.
 
bennysflyers16 said:
You are fake news,,,


Apparently:)

So team is playing “Really good” according to the toxic twins , yet we have lost 5 of 6.

Can we admit that they are 3-5 years away or no.
Click to expand...
We've had a run of bad goaltending, struggling to finish, and losing close games.
They're not a bad team, they're not a good team, right now somewhere in the middle.
But they're a young team (6 of 9 top forwards, 2 D-men under 25).

By the time Michkov comes over they should be a 95+ point team, he'll be the icing on the cake.
This year 80-85, next season 90+, 2025-26, 95+. Think that's reasonable expectations.
Andrae this spring, Gauthier next season, Bonk in two seasons.
We'll have to see how other prospects develop.
 
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