GDT: 1/13/25 Flames @ Hawks 6:40 CHSN

[Esq]

Because that's how the league designed it.

Here's the current odds

2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Detailed 2025 NHL lottery odds. View the current odds for each lottery spot to get specific picks. See the chances that a pick is traded based on position.

tankathon.com

I don’t think you are reading this correctly. Think about the percentages in each column, not each row.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I don’t think you are reading this correctly. Think about the percentages in each column, not each row.

I'm reading it correctly.

The team that finishes last will have a 25.5% chance at 1st overall, an 18.8% chance at 2nd, and a 55.7% chance at 3rd.

 

[Pez68]

I would fight Seth Jones in practice. Seriously.

 

[TLEH]

I don’t think you are reading this correctly. Think about the percentages in each column, not each row.

Its true. If you finish last you are statistically most likely to pick 3rd.

You have a 44.3% chance to pick 1st or 2nd and win the lottery. You have a 55.7% chance to pick 3rd.

If you finish last you'll average 2.3 pick slot. If you ask me thats a joke.

 

[kmwtrucks]

Its true. If you finish last you are statistically most likely to pick 3rd.

You have a 44.3% chance to pick 1st or 2nd and win the lottery. You have a 55.7% chance to pick 3rd.

If you finish last you'll average 2.3 pick slot. If you ask me thats a joke.

the league wants to guard against teams losing to try and get a certain player. lets say there was a Connor McDavid level player in this draft. if you were SJ, nash,Chi and getting the worst record gave you a 50% at 1st and 50% chance at second. you would be crazy not to purposely trade away better players and bring in worse. a player like that comes along every 10-15 years.

 

[GIADF]

I will be very disappointed if we go into next season and his linemate combos are still plugs like Mikheyev (who I like a lot, just as a 3rd winger), Bertuzzi as his best linemate, and other bottom 6 players like Donato and Hall.

For the love of god get him some help before we ruin him or even worse he asks for a trade in a few years.

 

[belfour30]

I will be very disappointed if we go into next season and his linemate combos are still plugs like Mikheyev (who I like a lot, just as a 3rd winger), Bertuzzi as his best linemate, and other bottom 6 players like Donato and Hall.

For the love of god get him some help before we ruin him or even worse he asks for a trade in a few years.

If he asks for a 5 year deal out of his ELC, watch out. That would take him straight to UFA.

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

At this point, I just want to see Bedard continue to accumulate points. Obviously the other young guys play good as well, but I just want Bedard to have confidence moving forward as well.

 

[scorehawks]

Looking forward to deadline

I understand why, but what we have to trade has little to any value. Trading low never works out.

 

[MHO]

I understand why, but what we have to trade has little to any value. Trading low never works out.

I'm most looking forward to open roster spots for more youth over the late round picks we'll get for Hall, Donato, Maroon, Smith, Martinez, and Murphy.

Yeah we might not get much for any of them but we'll be able to see Slaggert, Savoie, Moore, Rinzel, Del Mastro, Greene, and Thompson replace them.

 

[TLEH]

the league wants to guard against teams losing to try and get a certain player. lets say there was a Connor McDavid level player in this draft. if you were SJ, nash,Chi and getting the worst record gave you a 50% at 1st and 50% chance at second. you would be crazy not to purposely trade away better players and bring in worse. a player like that comes along every 10-15 years.

Bad teams should get the best players.

 

[GIADF]

I'm fine with a lottery in general. If it were my decision, I think I'd maybe favor the odds for the worst teams a bit more and maybe cap the lottery at the bottom 5 teams or something. Then just do reverse standings from pick 6-32.

 

[kmwtrucks]

I'm fine with a lottery in general. If it were my decision, I think I'd maybe favor the odds for the worst teams a bit more and maybe cap the lottery at the bottom 5 teams or something. Then just do reverse standings from pick 6-32.

for me the advantage of finishing the worst record is we get scafear, hagens or misa. it feels like a pretty solid fall off after that. all of the above are plus SKATERS.

 

[TLEH]

I'm fine with a lottery in general. If it were my decision, I think I'd maybe favor the odds for the worst teams a bit more and maybe cap the lottery at the bottom 5 teams or something. Then just do reverse standings from pick 6-32.

It should be based on your points out of the playoffs. Zero reason why a team that misses the playoffs by 6-8 points even has a chance to win the 1st pick.

 

[statswatcher]

It should be based on your points out of the playoffs. Zero reason why a team that misses the playoffs by 6-8 points even has a chance to win the 1st pick.

maybe they just like getting together for the pingpong balls.

 

[GIADF]

Hawks now on a 56 point pace after last night's L, which would only be 4 points better than last year, with a brutal stretch ahead and TDL departures still to come.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Bad teams should get the best players.

Someone needs to tell Manfred and MLB that

White Sox got royally screwed by nonsensical MLB rules

 

[Malagahawks]

If he asks for a 5 year deal out of his ELC, watch out. That would take him straight to UFA.

For the love of all things rational, if we haven't gone on at least a deep playoff by his UFA years this ownership should be fired into the sun.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

We got Kane and Bedard thanks to the lottery. I'm not remotely going to talk ill of any sort of voodoo or odds involved that have profoundly benefited us mutliple times even if we drop a bit this year.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

We got Kane and Bedard thanks to the lottery. I'm not remotely going to talk ill of any sort of voodoo or odds involved that have profoundly benefited us mutliple times even if we drop a bit this year.

Sorry but we got f***ed over royally in 2004 so we were owed some good fortune

 

[WarriorofTime]

If he asks for a 5 year deal out of his ELC, watch out. That would take him straight to UFA.

Offer him an 8 year extension on July 1, 2025. Wait around and don’t budge off that until July 1, 2026 and then take it from there if he’s not signed. You don’t just sign him for 5 because you want to be his buddy. If he signs the 8, you had 11 years to build a team around him so at that point if you fail, then you just sucked.

 

[nmgrbhfn]

Hawks now on a 56 point pace after last night's L, which would only be 4 points better than last year, with a brutal stretch ahead and TDL departures still to come.

Quoting this I suspect you already know the Hawks are about 30 gf ahead (prorated) of last year's gf total but only 7 ahead of last year's ga total. Right now in season the Hawks can't do much about scoring, but I think they can do something about d.

They already benched the forwards' worst +/- minus machine (23), I say they bench the d's worst +/- minus machine(s). It's actually easier because none of the d's +/- minus machines are depended on for scoring.

I don't care if Kaiser flails a little at times if he keeps the puck out of the net on average a little better than the vets. Heck, I'd bring up KK and have the young d men ostracize him until he makes keeping the puck out of the net his first priority.

Otherwise, at the end of the day it can be honestly said that this team isn't serious about winning. This is the problem all tank teams eventually face when they made some roster progress and got guys who may not even be replacement level at their point in development, but are better than the vet bums who are being iced. Yes, the team can be better but at the cost of draft position.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Offer him an 8 year extension on July 1, 2025. Wait around and don’t budge off that until July 1, 2026 and then take it from there if he’s not signed. You don’t just sign him for 5 because you want to be his buddy. If he signs the 8, you had 11 years to build a team around him so at that point if you fail, then you just sucked.

We'd have to give him $13m a year for that I'm sure.

 

[WarriorofTime]

We'd have to give him $13m a year for that I'm sure.

I'd cave on dollars before caving on term.

You definitely don't need to start negotiation with $13 million AAV though. That's not in line with his production.

 

[GIADF]

Quoting this I suspect you already know the Hawks are about 30 gf ahead (prorated) of last year's gf total but only 7 ahead of last year's ga total. Right now in season the Hawks can't do much about scoring, but I think they can do something about d.

I don't think they'll be -111 bad again, but I'd bet they're close to -100. Soda and Mrazek were both playing lights out in October and November with .926 and .911 save %'s respectavily.

I'm also expecting the younger guys to naturally fade down the stretch like Dach, Nazar, Allan, Crevier, and probably Bedard even.

Goaltending for the first two months really spared them from being as bad if not worse than last season so far when comparing the two seasons.