“It could go to $9M… Sign Knies first and see what’s leftover… because he’s going to get offer sheeted.”

[ashs]

Anti leaf crowd always wants to inflate the leaf salaries.

 

[LeafEgo]

You don’t think he’s a legit 30 goal scorer moving forward? The guy will get a ton of goals just by being in front of the net, but he’s also super talented too. He’s also the youngest player on the team - even if his shooting % goes down a bit he’s still going to get better of the next few years. 9M is pretty high though and we should be able to get him for less than that I would hope.

Feels like a safe bet to me.

His goal scoring program includes breakaways, crashing the net, cleaning up in the danger zone, tipping (maybe best on the team), and he can hang on L1 and compliments superstars well.

Farm boy with a mean streak and soft hands.

If he's healthy he's finding 30+ here on out.

 

[rielledup]

You don’t think he’s a legit 30 goal scorer moving forward? The guy will get a ton of goals just by being in front of the net, but he’s also super talented too. He’s also the youngest player on the team - even if his shooting % goes down a bit he’s still going to get better of the next few years. 9M is pretty high though and we should be able to get him for less than that I would hope.

No, I'm sure at his peak he'll be a consistent 30 goal guy if he's playing with great players.

 

[TonsofPuppies]

Knies is going to hit 40 next year, book it.

 

[Divine]

Knies is going to hit 40 next year, book it.

I mean if he keeps his pace from last game he can.

 

[weems]

Just looked at Knies three goals from last game and the xG for each.

First goal 0.23 xGF
Second goal 0.41 xGF
Third goal 0.11 xGF

Now in fairness, all three goals where point blank chances right in front of the net, but the game winner, he was literally sitting right at the side of the net, unchecked and had the easiest tap in of all time. How can this be so much lower in terms of xGF than the other two goals scored?

 

[The Shadow]

Will be interesting to see how they change their lineup for next season. The top line without Marner may not create as much offence which will hurt his Knies’ numbers obviously

But even with Matthews and a filler I could still see a 40 goal year just from being a force in the PP and cashing in. He’s only going to get better

Does he seem like a player that’s content with just cashing in a pay check? Not to me. This guy has that pissed off vibe like MacKinnon

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Just looked at Knies three goals from last game and the xG for each.

First goal 0.23 xGF
Second goal 0.41 xGF
Third goal 0.11 xGF

Now in fairness, all three goals where point blank chances right in front of the net, but the game winner, he was literally sitting right at the side of the net, unchecked and had the easiest tap in of all time. How can this be so much lower in terms of xGF than the other two goals scored?

Depends on the xG model.

But most modern xG models account for at least the following:

1. Distance: Distance of shot from the net
2. Angle: Angle of shot
3. Shot Type: Slap Shot, Snap Shot, Wrist Shot, Deflected, Tip-In, Wrap-Around, Backhand
4. Off Wing: If the player took the shot from his off wing
5. Empty Net: If the net was empty
6. Strength: 5v5, 4x5, 5x5, 3x3…etc. for the shooting team
7. Score Category: Score differential for the shooting team. It spans from -3+ to 3+ (I just bin
everything above 3 and below -3)
8. Is Forward: If the shooter is a forward
9. Is Home: If the shooter plays for the home team
10. Distance Change: Distance from previous event
11. Time Elapsed: The difference in time from the last event
12. Angle Change: The change in angle if it’s a rebound shot (last event was an SOG <= 2
seconds ago)
13. Previous Event & Team: Whether the previous event was a Fac, Sog, Block/Miss, or a Take/Hit (I changed gives to takes for the other team) and for which team. This is represented
by eight dummy variables (the four choices for both teams)

I think most modern models also add further context such as QoC, QoT, pass, etc.

All this stuff is weighted depending on the impact it has on shot quality and the output is aggregated into a final result that can be compared to the actual shot taken.

So as to why that cherry shot that appears to be rated too low compared to the rest, the simple answer is because historically that same type of shot under similar circumstances hasn't gone in very much for whatever unknown reasons.

 

[weems]

Depends on the xG model.

But most modern xG models account for at least the following:

1. Distance: Distance of shot from the net
2. Angle: Angle of shot
3. Shot Type: Slap Shot, Snap Shot, Wrist Shot, Deflected, Tip-In, Wrap-Around, Backhand
4. Off Wing: If the player took the shot from his off wing
5. Empty Net: If the net was empty
6. Strength: 5v5, 4x5, 5x5, 3x3…etc. for the shooting team
7. Score Category: Score differential for the shooting team. It spans from -3+ to 3+ (I just bin
everything above 3 and below -3)
8. Is Forward: If the shooter is a forward
9. Is Home: If the shooter plays for the home team
10. Distance Change: Distance from previous event
11. Time Elapsed: The difference in time from the last event
12. Angle Change: The change in angle if it’s a rebound shot (last event was an SOG <= 2
seconds ago)
13. Previous Event & Team: Whether the previous event was a Fac, Sog, Block/Miss, or a Take/Hit (I changed gives to takes for the other team) and for which team. This is represented
by eight dummy variables (the four choices for both teams)

I think most modern models also add further context such as QoC, QoT, pass, etc.

All this stuff is weighted depending on the impact it has on shot quality and the output is aggregated into a final result that can be compared to the actual shot taken.

So as to why that cherry shot that appears to be rated too low compared to the rest, the simple answer is because historically that same type of shot under similar circumstances hasn't gone in very much for whatever unknown reasons.

So it works good as an approximation but also misses some extremely important context.
This Knies 3rd goal, under the eye test is one that a skilled player should convert 100/100 times. It was basically as easy of a finish as possible in the game of hockey. Matthews also pulling the puck under Point's stick to his left, forced Vasilevsky to start sliding that direction, that once the pass got over to Knies, he was totally out of position in large part to Matthews subtle move.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

So it works good as an approximation but also misses some extremely important context.
This Knies 3rd goal, under the eye test is one that a skilled player should convert 100/100 times. It was basically as easy of a finish as possible in the game of hockey. Matthews also pulling the puck under Point's stick to his left, forced Vasilevsky to start sliding that direction, that once the pass got over to Knies, he was totally out of position in large part to Matthews subtle move.

The models account for if there is a goalie in net... not where he is located in the net.

Maybe the more modern ones have goalie position accounted for. Wouldn't surprise me. My guess is that even though that particular shot was a cherry historically the goalie is in position to save the vast majority of shots taken from that spot under similar circumstances.

With so many factors to consider it's impossible to account for every variable and not have anomalous results like this one appears to be.

 

[Confucius]

I mean if he keeps his pace from last game he can.

Oh he keeps his pace from last game he’ll hit 40 this year. Lol

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

As much as I like Knies I really hope they don't sign him for more than about 5.5x3

In other words bridge him. He's a good player. But he ain't no Brady Tkachuk.

There's a world of difference between those two despite similar box car stats.

Knies is already my favourite Leafs player. If he started playing with the same antics as Tkachuk he would easily be my favourite player in the league. As it is he's close.

Betting on potential is a suckers game.

So is betting on the cap rising significantly more than projected for the next nine years. A long term high dollar deal is a bet on both. Leafs already gambled on the payroll and roster construction under Dubas and lost.

GIving Knies 9x8 would be another master class in asset management Toronto Maple Leafs style.

 

[Mess]

As much as I like Knies I really hope they don't sign him for more than about 5.5x3

In other words bridge him. He's a good player. But he ain't no Brady Tkachuk.

There's a world of difference between those two despite similar box car stats.

Knies is already my favourite Leafs player. If he started playing with the same antics as Tkachuk he would easily be my favourite player in the league. As it is he's close.

Betting on potential is a suckers game.

So is betting on the cap rising significantly more than projected for the next nine years. A long term high dollar deal is a bet on both. Leafs already gambled on the payroll and roster construction under Dubas and lost.

GIving Knies 9x8 would be another master class in asset management Toronto Maple Leafs style.

Matty Knies also my favourite current Leaf player and looks like he has a bright future ahead as he develops.

I personally don't mind locking up a player long-term as opposed to shorter term and then players double dipping early. The longer the term and more the cap rises the greater the advantage of locking in a player

Just think had the Leafs locked in Marner to 8 years at $8.5 -$9 mil when they had that chance, then he would still be under contract for 2 more years still at that lower rate then his $10.9 mil now and even more now to re-sign.

If the Salary Cap keeps rising +$5 mil annually then long-term deals benefit the team, but with the current status of the world uncertainty much like when Covid hit the CAP went flat and then the benefit is lost and a bridge deal might be safer approach all things considered to see how this world economy all unfolds.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Matty Knies also my favourite current Leaf player and looks like he has a bright future ahead as he develops.

I personally don't mind locking up a player long-term as opposed to shorter term and then players double dipping early. The longer the term and more the cap rises the greater the advantage of locking in a player

Just think had the Leafs locked in Marner to 8 years at $8.5 -$9 mil when they had that chance, then he would still be under contract for 2 more years still at that lower rate then his $10.9 mil now and even more now to re-sign.

If the Salary Cap keeps rising +$5 mil annually then long-term deals benefit the team, but with the current status of the world uncertainty much like when Covid hit the CAP went flat and then the benefit is lost and a bridge deal might be safer approach all things considered to see how this world economy all unfolds.

Better safe than sorry.

With big risk comes big reward. But also big failure. They failed spectacularly under Dubas gambling on the cap rising.

If Treliving wants to get the payroll under control he shouldn't be repeating the same mistake as his predecessor.

 

[arso40]

It's great that he says this, but let's see it in action

Nylander said he loved playing here, but didn't take any discount
Marner is talking about how much he loves being a leaf but he doesn't put pen to paper
Tavares is a good old hometown boy and yet he's gonna get around 7-8

I like that he says he wants to be a leaf, but is he willing to sign a fair deal. I don't even expect a discount anymore because no one ever gives us one despite all the luxuries we can and do provide.

Nylander got paid 6.9 the first time and said he would take a SECOND discount if the boys were going to do the same so not sure what message you were trying to convey but ok

 

[Confucius]

I’ve read Boeser wants 8, bratt recently signed long term for 7.9, I’d rather have Knies than either of them and he is 6 years younger. 9 is a real possibility.

 

[arso40]

I’ve read Boeser wants 8, bratt recently signed long term for 7.9, I’d rather have Knies than either of them and he is 6 years younger. 9 is a real possibility.

Boeser on the right wing all American line would be sicc

 

[Gabriel426]

Anything’s possible I guess but I wouldn’t think the cap will just stagnate. They had reasons for projecting those numbers which is partly because the cap was kept down due to Covid where the players had to pay back the borrow money from the league to keep the cap flat. I wonder if TV and other advertising revenue projections are something the league knows will be increasing substantially over the next few years.

Those projections were before the tariffs though.

 

[Gabriel426]

Boeser on the right wing all American line would be sicc

Boeser is a bit on the slower side but the All American line would be pretty crazy as all three are big, and can shoot the puck.

 

[arso40]

Boeser is a bit on the slower side but the All American line would be pretty crazy as all three are big, and can shoot the puck.

No slower than marner personally I rather toffoli just not sure that’s gonna happen

 

[Gabriel426]

No slower than marner personally I rather toffoli just not sure that’s gonna happen

Toffoli is ideal on the 3rd line and 2nd line at best. If he is on your first line, that’s not a good thing.

 

[arso40]

Toffoli is ideal on the 3rd line and 2nd line at best. If he is on your first line, that’s not a good thing.

That’s your opinion he was good enough to be on a championship team but he isn’t here ?

 

[Aashir]

Nylander got paid 6.9 the first time and said he would take a SECOND discount if the boys were going to do the same so not sure what message you were trying to convey but ok

I’m just saying players have said things and then done something else.

They all talk about how much they “love” being leafs, but it never showed in the contracts.

These guys love Toronto because we will overpay them with low expectations.

 

[TMLAM34]

I would prefer a long term deal with Knies. I’m hoping we can get 8 years around 7.8 million per. Limited NTC when it’s available to kick in.

 

[Gabriel426]

That’s your opinion he was good enough to be on a championship team but he isn’t here ?

Just not first line.