Élite Propsects January 2025 draft ranking

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Besides even if we correct that to him being American, it seems unlikely that 20 of the best 32 players are Canadian.

They just went back to back years looking anemic at the World Juniors. Their share of NHL'ers goes down every year. This might be the first time maybe ever they don't have the best national team for best on best.

Why does it seem like this rankings and others seem to instead be doubling down and putting more Canadians in their first round than in the past? Maybe they haven't learned their lesson on what's happening within hockey and need to broaden their horizons and do more than watching so much of the CHL.
I know a few others quoted you already but it's been said by a lot of people that this is a weak year in general, specifically in all countries besides Canada. Which non-Canadian do you think is that much of an outlier here, that needs to be in the first round.

Secondly, the last 2 world juniors mean absolutely nothing in terms of this draft. Should all of the (weak) USNDTP players go in the first round since their country won the last 2 world juniors?
 
why so angry

Canadian players are still the best, even if you and Hockey Canada don't see it haha
Nothing angry in my post.

Canadian players are systemically overrated with the draft. Wasn’t really a huge issue pre-COVID, and now it’s becoming a larger and larger issue. 20+ first round picks is kind of my point.

Their share of the first round picks is going up and the relative success is going down.

I think one of the main drivers of this is that CHL scoring is up, and people can’t contextualize what it means. An American player who the American program viewed as their worst forward on a team that had a few forwards go undrafted is a potential re-draft first rounder because he’s lit up the CHL statistically.

There’s something wrong with that equation, and it needs correcting.
 
I would imagine just at face value the results of the last two years world juniors don't mean a single thing to this years draft class. Like the Americans having a couple really strong birth years aging out isn't going to give this birth year a bump in the rankings don't think it would work that way.
How does an American player who wasn’t picked last year because he was cut for some of those YEARS YOUNGER American players and viewed by them as the worst forward on the team end up ahead in the draft rankings this year of those players? It seems like something is wrong with this equation.

Here are some of the CHL players drafted ahead of Cole Hutson:

Cole Beaudoin
Liam Greentree
Marek Vanacker
Ben Danford
Sam O’Reilly
Charlie Elick
Andrew Basha

Of course, it’s not just American players who’ve become undervalued (American players used to be overvalued and now people claim with no evidence that the age groups are excessively weak). How are these Czechs, Finns, Swedes achieving better results than the Canadians if the players are so much worse (like not even on the same planet when it comes to draft position and becoming more and more extreme as time goes by)?

I know a few others quoted you already but it's been said by a lot of people that this is a weak year in general, specifically in all countries besides Canada. Which non-Canadian do you think is that much of an outlier here, that needs to be in the first round.

Secondly, the last 2 world juniors mean absolutely nothing in terms of this draft. Should all of the (weak) USNDTP players go in the first round since their country won the last 2 world juniors?
Oh yes, always a weak year to stuff the coffers with Canadian and CHL players. Then those “weak years” for other countries beat Canada at the main international tournaments for these age groups and achieve better success relative to draft position.
 
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It’s not some conspiracy or major bias. Most people that follow junior hockey know the 07’s, 08’s, 09’s are going to be Canadian/CHL heavy drafts. Is Canada going to have 22 1st rounders this year? No. The take away should be that there is going to be a higher concentration of talent in the CHL over the next couple drafts compared to the past couple. It’s cyclical. I’m sure it won’t be that way forever.
 
It’s not some conspiracy or major bias. Most people that follow junior hockey know the 07’s, 08’s, 09’s are going to be Canadian/CHL heavy drafts. Is Canada going to have 22 1st rounders this year? No. The take away should be that there is going to be a higher concentration of talent in the CHL over the next couple drafts compared to the past couple. It’s cyclical. I’m sure it won’t be that way forever.
Of course there’s major bias. No one knows that far in advance. And of course you didn’t answer my point about all these bums that got drafted ahead of Cole Hutson. What’s the reason for that?

And you’re wrong, there absolutely might be 22 Canadians in the first round. Bob McKenzie announced 20 in his latest list. He announced 22 CHL’ers. It’ll be as many as they want.
 
How does an American player who wasn’t picked last year because he was cut for some of those YEARS YOUNGER American players and viewed by them as the worst forward on the team end up ahead in the draft rankings this year of those players? It seems like something is wrong with this equation.

Here are some of the CHL players drafted ahead of Cole Hutson:

Cole Beaudoin
Liam Greentree
Marek Vanacker
Ben Danford
Sam O’Reilly
Charlie Elick
Andrew Basha

Of course, it’s not just American players who’ve become undervalued (American players used to be overvalued and now people claim with no evidence that the age groups are excessively weak). How are these Czechs, Finns, Swedes achieving better results than the Canadians if the players are so much worse (like not even on the same planet when it comes to draft position and becoming more and more extreme as time goes by)?


Oh yes, always a weak year to stuff the coffers with Canadian and CHL players. Then those “weak years” for other countries beat Canada at the main international tournaments for these age groups and achieve better success relative to draft position.
It is two years. It does seem a bit premature to be dancing on the grave of Canadian junior players. A lot of internal issues have gone into these last two years but I don’t see how anything you said refutes my original point? As for Hutson…I think that has a lot more to do with NHL teams having a tendency to over rate size over any kind of nationality bias. There is zero good reason for an NHL team to give a damn where a player was born.
 
It is two years. It does seem a bit premature to be dancing on the grave of Canadian junior players. A lot of internal issues have gone into these last two years but I don’t see how anything you said refutes my original point? As for Hutson…I think that has a lot more to do with NHL teams having a tendency to over rate size over any kind of nationality bias. There is zero good reason for an NHL team to give a damn where a player was born.
Well no, we are talking about 4 years. 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Canada got beat badly in the 2004 and 2005 age groups at the World Juniors and still had by far the most first rounders.

They had 18 first rounders for the 2006 age group.

Bob McKenzie announced 20 for his midseason list for the 2007 age group.

So we are talking four age groups. The numbers have also been rising every year.

You can claim innocent right now after your country has rigged the system, but you are defending these actions.

We’ve arrived at a system where every single country other than Canada believes their country doesn’t get a fair shot when it comes to NHL draft position.
 
Well no, we are talking about 4 years. 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Canada got beat badly in the 2004 and 2005 age groups at the World Juniors and still had by far the most first rounders.

They had 18 first rounders for the 2006 age group.

Bob McKenzie announced 20 for his midseason list for the 2007 age group.

So we are talking four age groups. The numbers have also been rising every year.

You can claim innocent right now after your country has rigged the system, but you are defending these actions.

We’ve arrived at a system where every single country other than Canada believes their country doesn’t get a fair shot when it comes to NHL draft position.
I mean at the end of the day it doesn’t really matter though? Like as long as you get drafted….if you are that good then you will show that over time. I’m also not sure why the NHL would be biased to Canadian players? I don’t think it is a conspiracy I think Canada just still has a larger quantity of players.
 
It’s not some conspiracy or major bias. Most people that follow junior hockey know the 07’s, 08’s, 09’s are going to be Canadian/CHL heavy drafts. Is Canada going to have 22 1st rounders this year? No. The take away should be that there is going to be a higher concentration of talent in the CHL over the next couple drafts compared to the past couple. It’s cyclical. I’m sure it won’t be that way forever.

It is not a conspiracy but it is a textbook example of major bias.
 
I mean at the end of the day it doesn’t really matter though? Like as long as you get drafted….if you are that good then you will show that over time. I’m also not sure why the NHL would be biased to Canadian players? I don’t think it is a conspiracy I think Canada just still has a larger quantity of players.
Sure, it matters how well you play after you get drafted, but it does become a little crooked when Canada’s share of NHL success goes down every year and their share of at least the top NHL draft picks goes up. It can be demoralizing for these players from countries other than Canada I’m sure when they know that they have to perform that much better than the Canadians and it’s demoralizing for fans to know that our players are not going to be valued fairly and will be drafted in slots where the odds say they are longer shots to succeed than their level of play and potential suggests.
 
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Of course there’s major bias. No one knows that far in advance. And of course you didn’t answer my point about all these bums that got drafted ahead of Cole Hutson. What’s the reason for that?

And you’re wrong, there absolutely might be 22 Canadians in the first round. Bob McKenzie announced 20 in his latest list. He announced 22 CHL’ers. It’ll be as many as they want.
Here's a list of some Americans that got drafted before Jordan Kyrou:
Luke Kunin
Kiefer Bellows
Riley Tufte
Trent Fredric

You can literally do this with any draft. People get over and under valued. Simple as. TSN isn't out here influencing how GM's make picks.
 
Here's a list of some Americans that got drafted before Jordan Kyrou:
Luke Kunin
Kiefer Bellows
Riley Tufte
Trent Fredric

You can literally do this with any draft. People get over and under valued. Simple as. TSN isn't out here influencing how GM's make picks.
Oh stop, you’re just being dishonest. I told you the players drafted right ahead of him.

This isn’t even in extreme hindsight picking out some of the outliers. This is 6 months later, and anyone with half a brain would agree it’s so abundantly clear so quickly that the wrong decision was made for Hutson’s draft position (and not many of those players are looking good so far, huh?).

For the record, it was clear at the time too, and I said as much.
 
Sure, it matters how well you play after you get drafted, but it does become a little crooked when Canada’s share of NHL success goes down every year and their share of at least the top NHL draft picks goes up. It can be demoralizing for these players from countries other than Canada I’m sure when they know that they have to perform that much better than the Canadians and it’s demoralizing for fans to know that our players are not going to be valued fairly and will be drafted in slots where the odds say they are longer shots to succeed than their level of play and potential suggests.
I am still just not sure exactly what an NHL front office has to gain out of propping up Canadian players?
 
I am still just not sure exactly what an NHL front office has to gain out of propping up Canadian players?
They are biased. NHL front offices are overwhelmingly Canadian.

Bob McKenzie has announced 22 CHL’ers to the first round this year. This list has a re-draft dude cut from the NTDP in the first round. They think they’ve discovered Kristian Epperson because he’s playing in their league this year. Well no, he was known in the past and he wasn’t that good. Nothing is materially different about him. He’s beating up bad competition relative to his peers he was cut for.

And the media is mostly Canadian and they also have the largest fan base. The system is biased. I suspect people with a stake in making decisions don’t want to get the decisions wrong. The media (who aren’t held accountable for job performance) and fans may be more than just biased. They are overwhelmingly Canadians. Of course they want to see their country dominate.
 
They are biased. NHL front offices are overwhelmingly Canadian.

Bob McKenzie has announced 22 CHL’ers to the first round this year. This list has a re-draft dude cut from the NTDP in the first round. They think they’ve discovered Kristian Epperson because he’s playing in their league this year. Well no, he was known in the past and he wasn’t that good. Nothing is materially different about him. He’s beating up bad competition relative to his peers he was cut for.

And the media is mostly Canadian and they also have the largest fan base. The system is biased. I suspect people with a stake in making decisions don’t want to get the decisions wrong. The media (who aren’t held accountable for job performance) and fans may be more than just biased. They are overwhelmingly Canadians. Of course they want to see their country dominate.
I mean....maybe? I guess I just don't see what is to gain by dominating the draft? They don't hand out medals for having the most 1st rounders lol in the end it all comes out in the wash based off of what happens on the ice. If a player falls because of some preconceived bias....some NHL team is getting lucky. The player will still get their full NHL career.
 
Oh stop, you’re just being dishonest. I told you the players drafted right ahead of him.

This isn’t even in extreme hindsight picking out some of the outliers. This is 6 months later, and anyone with half a brain would agree it’s so abundantly clear so quickly that the wrong decision was made for Hutson’s draft position (and not many of those players are looking good so far, huh?).

For the record, it was clear at the time too, and I said as much.
Pigeons pooping on chess boards.
 
And of course you didn’t answer my point about all these bums that got drafted ahead of Cole Hutson. What’s the reason for that?
I think scouts are just averse to small puck moving defensemen, it’s not a whole conspiracy. He definitely had a better u18 than Eliasson and Emery and was still picked behind them. Hell, even Kleber who didn’t even make the NTDP was taken in front of him. It’s a general philosophical groupthink that leads to him or his brother falling further than they should, not whatever passport they have. Apart from Basha, the players you listed would be described as not small players, and NHL teams get too hyper focused on that
 
I think scouts are just averse to small puck moving defensemen, it’s not a whole conspiracy. He definitely had a better u18 than Eliasson and Emery and was still picked behind them. Hell, even Kleber who didn’t even make the NTDP was taken in front of him. It’s a general philosophical groupthink that leads to him or his brother falling further than they should, not whatever passport they have. Apart from Basha, the players you listed would be described as not small players, and NHL teams get too hyper focused on that
All the Americans systemically fell as we got closer to the draft, so I’m not buying it was due to his size.

We had just seen his brother reach the NHL and have early success in it. It was already widely viewed as a big mistake was made in Lane’s draft position due to his size.
 
I'm a booster of American prospects as well, but it seems like they pulled names out of a hat here. This is not a great draft for U.S. players and some of the guys on this list should not be first rounders. Granted, he polled 10 scouts so maybe what actually happens will make more sense at the time of the draft. I want to know which jokers have Wang as a first rounder. LOL.
 
They are biased. NHL front offices are overwhelmingly Canadian.

Bob McKenzie has announced 22 CHL’ers to the first round this year. This list has a re-draft dude cut from the NTDP in the first round. They think they’ve discovered Kristian Epperson because he’s playing in their league this year. Well no, he was known in the past and he wasn’t that good. Nothing is materially different about him. He’s beating up bad competition relative to his peers he was cut for.

And the media is mostly Canadian and they also have the largest fan base. The system is biased. I suspect people with a stake in making decisions don’t want to get the decisions wrong. The media (who aren’t held accountable for job performance) and fans may be more than just biased. They are overwhelmingly Canadians. Of course they want to see their country dominate.

You should learn more about scouting outlets and how they work.

We had 20 public game reports on Epperson last year. He had a page on our draft guide. We tracked his games, accumulated advanced stats, and he finished with a good profile for a guy with limited usage. We gave him a D-grade, someone worthy of a sixth or seventh round pick. He was on our radar and we were curious to see him perform this season in the OHL.

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We have multiple scouts just surveying Europe and the U.S region. And they would all agree that these regions are weaker this season. If we're willing to do all this work, imagine how actual NHL teams operate. All the biases you think you're uncovering, they've already thought about them. Even more than us, they spend hundreds of hours discussing draft classes, reviewing their work, and comparing prospects.

There's no conspiracy here. It's just how the draft class is shaping. If a prospect is ahead of another, it's because we believe that he's a better prospect, accounting for regions, scoring, and a ton of other factors.
 
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All the Americans systemically fell as we got closer to the draft, so I’m not buying it was due to his size.

We had just seen his brother reach the NHL and have early success in it. It was already widely viewed as a big mistake was made in Lane’s draft position due to his size.

I think NHL scouts are a little more old school than that - last summer they probably still didn't think Lane Hutson was a great asset. Even after the year he's had now, I bet some are still thinking "wait until he gets exposed in the playoffs". So there are some biases at work here that aren't about nationality.

And the one thing that I remember from Cole Hutson's scouting reports was "not nearly as dynamic as his brother". They're two different players so it is hard to prove anything with that.
 
I think NHL scouts are a little more old school than that - last summer they probably still didn't think Lane Hutson was a great asset. Even after the year he's had now, I bet some are still thinking "wait until he gets exposed in the playoffs". So there are some biases at work here that aren't about nationality.

And the one thing that I remember from Cole Hutson's scouting reports was "not nearly as dynamic as his brother". They're two different players so it is hard to prove anything with that.
100%. These goobers are probably still looking for box scores in their local newspaper.
 
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