Élite Propsects January 2025 draft ranking

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Mathieukferland

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Oct 11, 2020
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Reschny at 37, Ivankovic only an HM biggest surprises for me
 
At a glance, Desnoyers and especially Frondell seem rather low, Lakovic and Smith high. Curious to see their justification for those rankings if they stay roughly the same in their final draft guide. EP's and HP's Draft Guides are my 2 main go-tos for prospect coverage
 
I’m think this first round is going to be wild so I’ll save any outrage from deviation from the circulating “consensus” - because outside of a the top handful of guys, this seems like a draft that is going to have very little consensus from the draft services and even less when you get to individual team boards.

Outside the top 3-4 (I feel like there may even be significant variance on Martone with some), I think pretty much anything is plausible this far out.

I do like Vansaghi in the first, I think his size and power forward upside is going to be appealing in a draft full of smaller or “safer” two-way players. And fun to see a giant wild card like Nestrasil making waves - this far into the season we have to push any pre-season rankings or preconceived notions on a players “level” to the back and go on who is visibly improving and flashing translatable skills.
 
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Mrtka seems low and nestrasil seems high so I think it's a great list. Not expecting 2 first rounders so this would be beautiful
 
Why is Blake Fiddler listed as Canadian? It seems almost certain he's going to play for the USA.

Besides even if we correct that to him being American, it seems unlikely that 20 of the best 32 players are Canadian.

They just went back to back years looking anemic at the World Juniors. Their share of NHL'ers goes down every year. This might be the first time maybe ever they don't have the best national team for best on best.

Why does it seem like this rankings and others seem to instead be doubling down and putting more Canadians in their first round than in the past? Maybe they haven't learned their lesson on what's happening within hockey and need to broaden their horizons and do more than watching so much of the CHL.

Even amongst the Americans, what has Kristian Epperson done to become a first rounder? He was literally cut from the NTDP's World Championship team for being like the worst forward on the team (at least that's how they viewed it). These are all the wingers that he couldn't beat out for a spot: Cole Eiserman, Trevor Connelly, Teddy Stiga, Max Plante, Brodie Ziemer, Christian Humphreys, Shane Vansaghi, Austin Baker, LJ Mooney, Brendan McMorrow.

A year later that's a first rounder? How? I could totally buy he was better than his NTDP usage. 3rd or 4th round, okay. 2nd round? Yeah okay, maybe. Max Plante was a second rounder. I could see how you could craft an argument that he's not really any less talented offensively and Plante got more beneficial usage that Epperson didn't. First round? That's too far.

It seems to me that this rankings are overvaluing CHL players stats, and just generally people have been overvaluing CHL stats post-COVID. I could see how Epperson's game looks a little better with a top 6 role in the CHL, but he also struggled to earn a lineup spot over the course of two years over some players who will get nowhere near the NHL. Look beyond his CHL stat totals. Sorry, he's not a first round caliber player. He doesn't have remotely special offensive abilities. He's not a hard to play against type of player. He's an undersized winger. That's not a first rounder.
 
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2 swedes in thr first is not going to happen, will be at least 3 or 4. Rankings are too NA heavy

Probably - but it seems to me after the first two guys, it’s a lot of good prospects who have chances to go late in the 1st but at this point don’t look like locks. Gastrin, Nilson, Genborg, Ihs-Wozniak…I mean likely one or two of these names could be on the first, but any could likely slip into round 2 as well.

Do you feel any of these guys are clear first rounders?
 
Why is Blake Fiddler listed as Canadian? It seems almost certain he's going to play for the USA.

Besides even if we correct that to him being American, it seems unlikely that 20 of the best 32 players are Canadian.

They just went back to back years looking anemic at the World Juniors. Their share of NHL'ers goes down every year. This might be the first time maybe ever they don't have the best national team for best on best.

Why does it seem like this rankings and others seem to instead be doubling down and putting more Canadians in their first round than in the past? Maybe they haven't learned their lesson on what's happening within hockey and need to broaden their horizons and do more than watching so much of the CHL.

Even amongst the Americans, what has Kristian Epperson done to become a first rounder? He was literally cut from the NTDP's World Championship team for being like the worst forward on the team (at least that's how they viewed it). These are all the wingers that he couldn't beat out for a spot: Cole Eiserman, Trevor Connelly, Teddy Stiga, Max Plante, Brodie Ziemer, Christian Humphreys, Shane Vansaghi, Austin Baker, LJ Mooney, Brendan McMorrow.

A year later that's a first rounder? How? I could totally buy he was better than his NTDP usage. 3rd or 4th round, okay. 2nd round? Yeah okay, maybe. Max Plante was a second rounder. I could see how you could craft an argument that he's not really any less talented offensively and Plante got more beneficial usage that Epperson didn't. First round? That's too far.

It seems to me that this rankings are overvaluing CHL players stats, and just generally people have been overvaluing CHL stats post-COVID. I could see how Epperson's game looks a little better with a top 6 role in the CHL, but he also struggled to earn a lineup spot over the course of two years over some players who will get nowhere near the NHL. Look beyond his CHL stat totals. Sorry, he's not a first round caliber player. He doesn't have remotely special offensive abilities. He's not a hard to play against type of player. He's an undersized winger. That's not a first rounder.
The Scouts from the the Site obviously think it’s down year in the USA especially NTDP . Schmidt at # 11 is actually pretty funny . However , I agree with them it’s top heavy then it can really go anywhere . This is when scouts will go strictly I think for size and Schmidt - Benak slips to second round and Mooney 5-6 th round . They have Hensler lowest I’ve seen any site -25#
 
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Hello! Here to answer some of your questions, if you want.
At a glance, Desnoyers and especially Frondell seem rather low, Lakovic and Smith high. Curious to see their justification for those rankings if they stay roughly the same in their final draft guide. EP's and HP's Draft Guides are my 2 main go-tos for prospect coverage

Our scouting team is split on Desnoyers. We all like his playmaking and defence. He plays a sort of chess game, but we do have some concerns about his overall pace of play. We want to see him create more dynamically. He makes a lot of his plays in a glide.

We seem to project Frondell differently than most. We had him at 15 coming into the season based on draft-minus-one play and his performance this season seems to be validating that take. We like his shot and physicality (he's a tank) and his defence for the most part, but he relies on others to create for him most of the time. He also seems to have matured physically much earlier than his peers. His transition metrics are poor at the moment. He could improve significantly, as he's coming back from injury, but we project him more as a middle-six, supportive center.

I generally like EP's rankings but Epperson in round 1 is a little crazy to me.

Yeah, this one is a bit unusual for sure, a re-entry in the first, but I think other outlets will push him up as the season goes on. This is not a very deep class. There are a lot of B-level prospect, but the quality of that tier is not as good as in previous seasons, so preference is more of a factor.

Let's reframe this:

If a team picked Epperson between 25-50 last year and he was on pace for a 96 point season in the OHL, playing it through and through as an 18-year-old, while showing a high level of physicality, pace, and playmaking skills, that organization would be happy.

Why is Blake Fiddler listed as Canadian? It seems almost certain he's going to play for the USA.

Besides even if we correct that to him being American, it seems unlikely that 20 of the best 32 players are Canadian.

They just went back to back years looking anemic at the World Juniors. Their share of NHL'ers goes down every year. This might be the first time maybe ever they don't have the best national team for best on best.

Why does it seem like this rankings and others seem to instead be doubling down and putting more Canadians in their first round than in the past? Maybe they haven't learned their lesson on what's happening within hockey and need to broaden their horizons and do more than watching so much of the CHL.

Even amongst the Americans, what has Kristian Epperson done to become a first rounder? He was literally cut from the NTDP's World Championship team for being like the worst forward on the team (at least that's how they viewed it). These are all the wingers that he couldn't beat out for a spot: Cole Eiserman, Trevor Connelly, Teddy Stiga, Max Plante, Brodie Ziemer, Christian Humphreys, Shane Vansaghi, Austin Baker, LJ Mooney, Brendan McMorrow.

A year later that's a first rounder? How? I could totally buy he was better than his NTDP usage. 3rd or 4th round, okay. 2nd round? Yeah okay, maybe. Max Plante was a second rounder. I could see how you could craft an argument that he's not really any less talented offensively and Plante got more beneficial usage that Epperson didn't. First round? That's too far.

It seems to me that this rankings are overvaluing CHL players stats, and just generally people have been overvaluing CHL stats post-COVID. I could see how Epperson's game looks a little better with a top 6 role in the CHL, but he also struggled to earn a lineup spot over the course of two years over some players who will get nowhere near the NHL. Look beyond his CHL stat totals. Sorry, he's not a first round caliber player. He doesn't have remotely special offensive abilities. He's not a hard to play against type of player. He's an undersized winger. That's not a first rounder.

This is CHL-heavy draft. The EU class is one of the worst in recent memory and the U.S side is also not that good. The USNTDP pushes down legitimately good prospects who emerge later on once in a while. It's not that unusual. Making or not making an International team barely matters for all the reasons we know: politics, familiarity, reputation...

Epperson remains a B-level prospect, a 2nd or 3rd rounder in our eyes. The A-tier (clear first-rounders) stops at Joshua Ravensbergen
 
Hello! Here to answer some of your questions, if you want.

Let's reframe this:

If a team picked Epperson between 25-50 last year and he was on pace for a 96 point season in the OHL, playing it through and through as an 18-year-old, while showing a high level of physicality, pace, and playmaking skills, that organization would be happy.



This is CHL-heavy draft. The EU class is one of the worst in recent memory and the U.S side is also not that good. The USNTDP pushes down legitimately good prospects who emerge later on once in a while. It's not that unusual. Making or not making an International team barely matters for all the reasons we know: politics, familiarity, reputation...

Epperson remains a B-level prospect, a 2nd or 3rd rounder in our eyes. The A-tier (clear first-rounders) stops at Joshua Ravensbergen
Thanks for the explanation David.

That's typically the method I use to evaluate over-agers (what would you think now if they'd been drafted in that spot in their first eligible year) and if someone thinks Epperson is a 2nd rounder I guess I can buy that, especially if this is a weaker draft. I've just watched a lot of Epperson this year and he hasn't impressed me to that point yet, but then again, I haven't seen dozens of games of each of the other prospects in the same range.
 
The A-tier (clear first-rounders) stops at Joshua Ravensbergen
Question: regarding the upcoming trade deadline, do you think sellers will ask for 2026 first round picks from playoffs teams rather than picking in the late 20’s this year!?

It’s super early, but basically how deep is the 26 draft compared to this year’s!?
 
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Question: regarding the upcoming trade deadline, do you think sellers will ask for 2026 first round picks from playoffs teams rather than picking in the late 20’s this year!?

It’s super early, but basically how deep is the 26 draft compared to this year’s!?

It's very early to tell, but so far, we think there are more potential A-grades and better A-grades prospects in the 2026 draft than in the 2025. So, acquiring those 2026 picks could be an idea for teams looking to sell players. And there's always a chance that a team in a playoff spot falls out of it the year after. Generally, however, teams prefer earlier picks unless they're stuck in a long rebuild.
 
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@DavidStLouis

Great list guys! Can't wait to watch your upcoming video, there are definitely some intriguing choices here and polarizing names (like Wang, O'Brien 🤓...), it should be a very interesting conversation!

I knew Nestrasil was going to be high on your new rankings, but I did not expect him to be THAT high 😅 But I'm on board with that, he's been really fun to watch lately and should be my biggest riser as well.

Is there a specific reason why Eric Nilson is not in your HM's? I thought he'd by the type of player many would like at EP.
 

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