Speculation: Offseason Roster Moves

[VEGASKING]

Was replying to the last few posts in the game 5 GDT but decided this needed its own thread. This offseason should be very interesting due to the players who are free agents and how little cap room we have to work with. Marchy is the big elephant in the room. I thought the trade for Hertl was a pretty clear indicator management wasn't expecting him back unless Hanifin decided he was going to go play back East. Obviously the Hanifin extension got done so that is another few million gone versus what Martinez made. I just don't see how they can squeeze him in even at the 5m number he makes now and I doubt anyone expects him to not get a raise.

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We have 81,802,484 on the books for next season. The cap is projected to be 87.7.

UFA's to let walk: Mantha, Stephenson, Martinez
UFA's TBD on: Marchy, Amadio and Carrier
RFA: Dorofeyev and Korczak

Only 11 forwards under contract including Brisson and Rondbjerg who are more AHL quality at the moment and Cotter who is cheap bottom 6 filler. So realistically we have 6 million to fill 2 starting forward spots if we slot one of those 2 guys in the line up somewhere. Dorofeyev is a no brainer to sign and shouldn't cost that much. Amadio ($762,500) is due a raise and Carrier (1.4m) should also be relatively cheap but can they even afford them even at a discount?

Howden and Hague have to be the first guys you look to move to free up some cap space. Going from Hague to Hutton or Korczak saves you 1.3m. Howden to Brisson/Rondbjerg/Cotter saves you another 1.1m. Trading Whitecloud as well and going with a bottom pair of Hutton and Korczak would be okay as far as the actual on ice play goes but then we've gone from 9 NHL quality defensemen down to 6.

There is just not much you can do with how the salaries are structured. You have the guys making the big money and the guys who make little with not much inbetween. Karlsson, Theodore and Barbashev are the only guys making between 3 and 6 million. Hanifin replaced Theodore on the power play and it immediately took off and I'm sure teams would bite our hands off to acquire Shea at his cap hit but his cap being so reasonable also makes trading him so hard. I just noticed he is also going to be UFA after next season so that would make seeing him go a lot more palatable.

Giving Petro away for nothing to clear space ala Fleury or Patches would be a win but he has a NMC. Even retaining like 2m in a trade how many teams would he accept to go to and how many would take him?


Who all thinks Marchy re-signs? The fan base will want to riot but it seems like I'm in the minority who saw the writing on the wall after the Hertl trade.

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[Vegan Knight]

I know they probably keep Marchessault but I think if they used next year to get totally younger and build the team around Eichel, Hanafin, Korczak and a younger core it might be the better chance of another Cup.

If they take Duck Knight's suggestion and trade Theodore for a young scoring winger who can be a core piece, give Dorofeyev and Brisson their shots at being point producing wingers and hold on to Hague, Whitecloud and Korczak we could get young but not too young pretty quick and still have cap room to look into adding more pieces up front around Eichel's age.

I'd also personally trade Hill and actually give Thompson your vote of confidence and bring in a veteran 1B for 3.5 million.

 

[hamzarocks]

Any interest in saving the Leafs?

Marner + McCabe for Theodore + Hill + Roy?

 

[The Duck Knight]

I know they probably keep Marchessault but I think if they used next year to get totally younger and build the team around Eichel, Hanafin, Korczak and a younger core it might be the better chance of another Cup.

If they take Duck Knight's suggestion and trade Theodore for a young scoring winger who can be a core piece, give Dorofeyev and Brisson their shots at being point producing wingers and hold on to Hague, Whitecloud and Korczak we could get young but not too young pretty quick and still have cap room to look into adding more pieces up front around Eichel's age.

I'd also personally trade Hill and actually give Thompson your vote of confidence and bring in a veteran 1B for 3.5 million.

Yeah I'd be down to move Hill too. Still think Thompson is a better goalie and Hill is hurt too much to rely upon him if you move Thompson.

Barbashev-Eichel-Marchie
Dorofeyev-Karlsson-Stone
Brisson-Hertl-(Theo trade return)
Howden-Roy-Kolesar

Hanifin-Petro
Mcnabb-Korczak
Hague-Whitecloud

Thompson
Vet backup that can play 30 games.

Any interest in saving the Leafs?

Marner + McCabe for Theodore + Hill + Roy?

f*** NO. Pardon my french.

Edit: Will add I'm not opposed to a Theo to Toronto deal, but not for Marner. Only thing that would work for Vegas would be something with Knies as the main piece.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Oh and holy hell was Mantha a waste of a 2nd round pick. I hated that trade when it was made (really wanted Tarasenko) and I hate it even more now.

 

[mundyc3]

Oh and holy hell was Mantha a waste of a 2nd round pick. I hated that trade when it was made (really wanted Tarasenko) and I hate it even more now.

The more shocking part is he was the first acquisition. When you look at the narrow margins it was to get the other two players within cap, the idea that Mantha was the first guy to pull the trigger on?

 

[EMcx2]

Have to assume that when management re-signed Hanifin they had a plan...
If you have Hanifin do you need Theodore at 5m? Theodore has some nice dance moves but turns the puck over a lot! To my eyes, Theodore's plusses never really outweighed his minuses for a 5m/year player.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Have to assume that when management re-signed Hanifin they had a plan...
If you have Hanifin do you need Theodore at 5m? Theodore has some nice dance moves but turns the puck over a lot! To my eyes, Theodore's plusses never really outweighed his minuses for a 5m/year player.

There is never not a need for a player like Theo at 5m. The issue is he's not a guy I want at 8m+ which is what is coming after next year. That's the reason he should be the guy to go and he'll get us a great return.

 

[VEGASKING]

With only 1 year left on his deal I don't think they have much choice. Handing him 7m+ a year over 7 or 8 years is a mistake. The problem is they are going all in every year so I'm afraid they keep him and lose him for nothing. They need to get some picks or prospects in as the cupboards are bare.

Marchy will be 34 in December. We will not be able to replace his goal scoring but handing out another 4+ year deal for him has to be avoided. We already have Stone, Hertl, Karlsson and Petro who are all on the wrong side on 30 locked up for big money for 3 more years.

 

[Haguerbomb]

Friedman on 32 Thoughts:

- Marchessault wants term but we don't. After the TDL contract talks are struggling.
- We want to keep Stephenson ( ) and offered him 'significant' term with average-low AAV but he wants above average AAV and term
- Carrier is due for his biggest contract and we might not be able to match what other teams offer.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Friedman on 32 Thoughts:

- Marchessault wants term but we don't. After the TDL contract talks are struggling.
- We want to keep Stephenson ( ) and offered him 'significant' term with average-low AAV but he wants above average AAV and term
- Carrier is due for his biggest contract and we might not be able to match what other teams offer.

If Marchie wants term it needs to be a low AAV which is actually better for us to begin with. I'd be just fine with 8x4 if he'd be okay with that.

Please no to Stephenson unless it is ludicrously cheap.

Carrier will definitely get overpaid by a team like Anaheim that is looking to bolster it's bottom 6.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[The Duck Knight]

The thought just occurred to me that there is a very real possibility that the only OG Misfits left at the start of next year may be Karlsson and Mcnabb.

 

[ChanceVegas]

It would be tragic to re-sign Stephenson and let Marchy walk... which means it is probably what is going to happen. I don't see how we replace Marchy's goal scoring.

I wouldn't mind moving one of Whitecloud, Hague, McNabb or Theo and Hill. I am not sure we would get anyone to bite on Hill at his current contract. Whitecloud is still cheap on a long contract.

Hopefully they offer Marty a retirement position in the org. Carrier is gone most likely. I like Amadio, but he does seem replaceable.

Maybe I am pessimistic, but it really seems like this is the year they needed to win another cup. Seems like injury will continue to be a major factor for this team and they may be on the bubble to even make the playoffs each year. I fear this season is more the norm going forward than an aberration. Unless they can work some magic to inject more youth, but I am not seeing it in the available assets.

 

[azvgk]

Any interest in saving the Leafs?

Marner + McCabe for Theodore + Hill + Roy?

Marner makes like 11 million - having 4 guys making 10+ million (Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Matthews) is why Toronto goes out in the first round every year.

Besides, Theo is a bargain on his contract and Hill + Thompson equals topflight goaltending for 6 million total. So no thanks.

 

[Vegan Knight]

It would be tragic to re-sign Stephenson and let Marchy walk... which means it is probably what is going to happen. I don't see how we replace Marchy's goal scoring.

I wouldn't mind moving one of Whitecloud, Hague, McNabb or Theo and Hill. I am not sure we would get anyone to bite on Hill at his current contract. Whitecloud is still cheap on a long contract.

Hopefully they offer Marty a retirement position in the org. Carrier is gone most likely. I like Amadio, but he does seem replaceable.

Maybe I am pessimistic, but it really seems like this is the year they needed to win another cup. Seems like injury will continue to be a major factor for this team and they may be on the bubble to even make the playoffs each year. I fear this season is more the norm going forward than an aberration. Unless they can work some magic to inject more youth, but I am not seeing it in the available assets.

They have too many good defensemen, most are young, and can get a prime young forward piece for Theodore. They've got Eichel as a still pretty young franchise 1C. They've got some good veterans around him up front.

Thompson is a very good young goaltender if they give him their backing. We've got pieces around up front that can be good when they're on. We need some winger help with goalscoring but I think they can find that.

Also if they wanted to trade Hill they would definitely find a partner at 4,900,000 for a single season.

 

[hangman005]

Get Brad Tre drunk and offer package around Petro for Marner.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

IMHO, Martinez retires, Stephenson and Marchessault re-sign but with stay-at-home discounts, Mantha is not signed, and Hertl is traded away as part of an amazing blockbuster deal to a desperate GM who wants to make a big splash. At least one other older player is sent somewhere else.

Sort of wonder whether Stone will finally hang up his skates and make a claim against his disability policy.

 

[The Duck Knight]

IMHO, Martinez retires, Stephenson and Marchessault re-sign but with stay-at-home discounts, Mantha is not signed, and Hertl is traded away as part of an amazing blockbuster deal to a desperate GM who wants to make a big splash. At least one other older player is sent somewhere else.

Sort of wonder whether Stone will finally hang up his skates and make a claim against his disability policy.

There is zero chance Hertl is being traded. He waived his NMC specifically for Vegas. Plus the front office isn't suddenly going to change their mind on him after 20ish games. Nor should they.

 

[Vegan Knight]

I would be fine with Stephenson and Marchessault going and the team has to be also.

GMs make mistakes when they swing back to one guy because another guy is priced out so they spend more money on the other guy.

If they are priced out of Marchessault (it might not be a bad move to let him go, we've probably seen his best 2-3 regular seasons and best 2-3 postseasons already and if he wants 7 million he might quickly not be worth that) but if they shift back to Stephenson and offer him more that's dumb.

Stephenson has one weapon, speed, and that will go down quite early into this deal and if they are offering him 3 million they shouldn't budge on it no matter what happens with Marchessault.

If they both walk and we trade Theodore for a younger winger then we have maybe one top six winger spot and one third line winger spot to fill. We've gone into seasons still needing pieces before and if we have to work free agency to find one of those then the trade deadline it can still work.

 

[Knights2017]

If The Flames would eat like HALF of Huberdeau's salary I think he'd bounce back huge in Vegas.

 

[hangman005]

IMHO, Martinez retires, Stephenson and Marchessault re-sign but with stay-at-home discounts, Mantha is not signed, and Hertl is traded away as part of an amazing blockbuster deal to a desperate GM who wants to make a big splash. At least one other older player is sent somewhere else.

Sort of wonder whether Stone will finally hang up his skates and make a claim against his disability policy.

Martinez I think should retire, if he wanted to stay for like $2M for a year, I'd do it, but on the understanding he'd be a depth piece. Marchy, in many ways with his age the smart thing to do is probably let him walk, I've heard he wants term, but I'd go no longer than 3 years and that depends on the salary. Stephenson if it's very team friendly, if not let him walk. And I'd be actively trying to move Petro, but with a full NMC not sure that would fly.

 

[LadyStanley]

Stone definitely needs to consider his future. Recent podcast (I have like 20 hockey related I listen to; might have been Too Many Men) considered Stone and his health wondering if he would only be a 1/2 a season guy or needs to hang up the skates.

Lehner still has one more season under contract and with injury status cannot be bought out.

 

[BHawk21]

What do you think Stephenson makes on the open market? Is his game in decline already?

 

[The Duck Knight]

What do you think Stephenson makes on the open market? Is his game in decline already?

IMO he's worth like 4m tops. I also think he's nothing more than a 3C without Stone though. Wouldn't say his game is in "decline" but I'm not sure how effective he is going to be in the long haul without Stone. Definitely not someone I want the Knights committing big money and term to.