Armchair GM: Offseason Roster Moves and Rumors

[CBJx614]

i think folks are really underselling mitch marner on this board.

• literally just turned 27 yesterday (same draft class as werenski)
• is arguably the best defensive winger in the league, is selke-caliber
• plays gigantic minutes (21:26 toi/gp over the last five years)
• is one of the best penalty killers in the league
• is one of the best play-drivers in the league
• elite point production

his scoring rate the last six seasons (1.22 p/gp, 509p in 417gp) which comes out to 100 points per 82 games, which is significantly higher than the blue jackets single season franchise record of 87 points. he'd make the jackets better in a lot of areas.

some 'concerns' that are non-issues to me:

1. fit relative to the rest of the roster – he'd immediately be their best player
2. line fit with gaudreau – i'd have them on separate lines
3. contract – the jackets have a ton of cap space + the cap is going up anyway + they'd have enough runway to make other moves before any actual big RFA deals (i.e. fantilli) come up
4. playoff performance – the jackets need to focus on getting to the playoffs first + marner wasn't the problem with that group anyway imo

My problem with him is that he isn't a someone I want being THE GUY that we build around combined with the acquisition cost to get him hampers our ability to build a proper team around him. Can he still do that without Matthews and others taking all the pressure away from him?

I think he could be a good fit to the team once we think we're close. But we could just as easily be in the running for lottery next season, just as easily as we could be competing for the WC spot.

 

[squashmaple]

i think folks are really underselling mitch marner on this board.

• literally just turned 27 yesterday (same draft class as werenski)
• is arguably the best defensive winger in the league, is selke-caliber
• plays gigantic minutes (21:26 toi/gp over the last five years)
• is one of the best penalty killers in the league
• is one of the best play-drivers in the league
• elite point production

his scoring rate the last six seasons (1.22 p/gp, 509p in 417gp) which comes out to 100 points per 82 games, which is significantly higher than the blue jackets single season franchise record of 87 points. he'd make the jackets better in a lot of areas.

some 'concerns' that are non-issues to me:

1. fit relative to the rest of the roster – he'd immediately be their best player
2. line fit with gaudreau – i'd have them on separate lines
3. contract – the jackets have a ton of cap space + the cap is going up anyway + they'd have enough runway to make other moves before any actual big RFA deals (i.e. fantilli) come up
4. playoff performance – the jackets need to focus on getting to the playoffs first + marner wasn't the problem with that group anyway imo

Oh, I'd be over the moon to get Marner the player, especially for a reasonable, fair acquisition cost (and I'd proabably pay a lot in a vacuum, up to and including the likely 5OA).

But Marner comes with significant cons as well, and I think you're underselling how important one of them is: contract. This is a guy who already managed to get paid 11mil on his first contract. He's not taking a discount on the next one. He's Toronto born and raised and highly unlikely to waive his NMC, because why should he? So Toronto is handcuffed on where they can move him because even teams he might approve going to are unlikely to be interested in fair assets for him as a rental and even more unlikely to want to re-sign him to the Matthews deal he will likely demand. And the acquiring team will need to consider if typing up a sixth of their cap in one single winger, no matter how good he is, is worth it. A team that already has one 10 million winger on the books for at least five more years should sit this one out. A lot has been made of Toronto investing heavily in their Big Four, but at least three fourths of them are centers (even if they don't play Nylander as such).

My guess is he ends up in Vegas.

Edited to add because I was still thinking after hitting send: Now if Mark Hunter is the hire, maybe this changes. London Knights effect, etc.

 

[EspenK]

Marner for Gaudreau?

Just another pithy comment that produced some good discussion.

The idea was we could dump gaudreau's contract and only pay marner for one year and let him walk, agree to a TDL deal or re-sign if it turned out to actually be a good fit.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Shea Theodore or Zach Whitecloud? Any interest in either?

And whoever the new GM is should offer a nice package for William Nylander.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Just another pithy comment that produced some good discussion.

The idea was we could dump gaudreau's contract and only pay marner for one year and let him walk, agree to a TDL deal or re-sign if it turned out to actually be a good fit.

Getting rid of Gaudreau would be incredible but he's a soft winger on a long term deal-probably exactly what Toronto doesn't want. Can't see him waving the NMC either.

Seeing Marner in a contract year after getting run out of Toronto would be awesome. His incentive to perform would be very, very high.

If the new Gm was able to somehow get J Hockey to waive and be willing to retain 50%, there's a slight possibility that it could get done. But, I'd say it's very slight.

I love the strategy behind your suggestion. It would open up a ton of cap space for a team which is easily several years away from even possibly being able to realistically compete for a Stanley Cup. Getting rid of Laine, Gaudreau or Severson would be a coup for the new GM.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

My problem with him is that he isn't a someone I want being THE GUY that we build around

he's a franchise talent but the guy would still be fantilli. speaking of, i'd argue that marner is a better fit with fantilli than gaudreau or laine are. he's a takeaway machine and elite playmaker, and those two things perfectly compliment fantilli's high-end skating + compete level + hands. on top of that, their handedness matches up perfectly (LH center + RH RW).

it'd also make the laine conundrum a lot easier – he could be put at LW on a line with fantilli and marner, play high in the zone, and be a one-timer threat at 5v5 and on the rush. that'd help him re-establish his value.

but as far as the actual core goes, it'd be fantilli, marner, werenski and gaudreau, with jiricek/mateychuk/2024 pick having a chance to play their way into that group.

I think he could be a good fit to the team once we think we're close. But we could just as easily be in the running for lottery next season, just as easily as we could be competing for the WC spot.

the idea is that they'd get him with an extension in place. when players like marner come available (true superstars who move the needle on their own) they can alter the trajectory of a roster.

the jackets have a lot of young players who i like (marchenko, chinakhov, johnson) but none of those guys profile to be nearly as impactful as marner (a 100-point, selke-worthy winger).

Oh, I'd be over the moon to get Marner the player, especially for a reasonable, fair acquisition cost (and I'd proabably pay a lot in a vacuum, up to and including the likely 5OA).

i assume that toronto's goal in any marner trade would be to achieve all of the following:

1. add multiple quality pieces to the roster (they're not rebuilding)
2. free up cap space
3. add some kind of future asset

that lends itself well to the jackets current roster makeup/surpluses. the framework of a deal would be something like:

• one of marchenko / chinakhov
• boone jenner
• ivan provorov (50% retained)
• one b-tier prospect (svozil, del bel belluz)

alternatively, could include KJ instead of marchenko/chinakhov and take jenner out.

But Marner comes with significant cons as well, and I think you're underselling how important one of them is: contract. This is a guy who already managed to get paid 11mil on his first contract. He's not taking a discount on the next one.

i have no issue paying marner a market-value contract given that he's a legitimate superstar talent. legit and consistent 90-100 point player who eats up tough matchups and plays selke-level defense, it's a no-brainer.

A team that already has one 10 million winger on the books for at least five more years should sit this one out. A lot has been made of Toronto investing heavily in their Big Four, but at least three fourths of them are centers (even if they don't play Nylander as such).

My guess is he ends up in Vegas.

mark stone has an almost identical AAV to gaudreau, and plays the same position as marner. i do agree that this feels like a vegas move, but in today's league (and where the cap is going) you can absolutely win with multiple expensive wings.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Marner going to Vegas is the ultimate non starter. There's this thing called the cap The VGK already have to play games with LTIR to make it work. Marner's contract would make that impossible.

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They just (foolishly) traded for Hertl and Marchessault's deal is up and I can't imagine them not re-signing him unless he demands too much.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

They just (foolishly) traded for Hertl and Marchessault's deal is up and I can't imagine them not re-signing him unless he demands too much.

vegas is ruthless when it comes to roster management, so they'll definitely either let marchessault walk or trade someone like karlsson to make room.

as for their cap, they have a nice chunk of change coming off the books ($5.25 martinez, $5m marchessault, $2.75m stephenson, $2.85m mantha). eichel and hertl are set as their top two centers, and roy could easily play as their #3.

without doing any of the actual math, i'd assume that moving out karlsson + barbashev is probably enough on its own to afford marner and bring back marchessault.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

vegas is ruthless when it comes to roster management, so they'll definitely either let marchessault walk or trade someone like karlsson to make room.

as for their cap, they have a nice chunk of change coming off the books ($5.25 martinez, $5m marchessault, $2.75m stephenson, $2.85m mantha). eichel and hertl are set as their top two centers, and roy could easily play as their #3.

without doing any of the actual math, i'd assume that moving out karlsson + barbashev is probably enough on its own to afford marner and bring back marchessault.

Marchessault and Karlsson are part of the fabric of the team. They get both of them for less cost than Marner.

Vegas is a team which sets its sights on the Cup every year. Karlsson and JM are willing to pay that price in the playoffs. Marner's play can only be described as cowardly in the playoffs. He avoids contact at all costs. Mr. Perimeter should be his playoff nickname.

Stephenson is a glue guy who had 51 points and he is on a very reasonable deal.

As good as Vegas is at manipulating (some would say cheating) on the cap and their willingness to trade iconic players (Fleury), Marner's salary would almost be impossible to absorb.

At this point in his career, Marner has only proved himself as a regular season player. He's a perennial post season loser He's also a bit of a spoiled baby and I doubt that would play well in Vegas.

GM Kelly McCrimmon is way to smart to even want Marner on his roster let alone get rid of those pieces that you suggested. Marner to Vegas is a non starter. Utah screams Mitch Marner to me. Not a real contender.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Marchessault and Karlsson are part of the fabric of the team. They get both of them for less cost than Marner.

Vegas is a team which sets its sights on the Cup every year. Karlsson and JM are willing to pay that price in the playoffs. Marner's play can only be described as cowardly in the playoffs. He avoids contact at all costs. Mr. Perimeter should be his playoff nickname.

Stephenson is a glue guy who had 51 points and he is on a very reasonable deal.

As good as Vegas is at manipulating (some would say cheating) on the cap and their willingness to trade iconic players (Fleury), Marner's salary would almost be impossible to absorb.

At this point in his career, Marner has only proved himself as a regular season player. He's a perennial post season loser He's also a bit of a spoiled baby and I doubt that would play well in Vegas.

GM Kelly McCrimmon is way to smart to even want Marner on his roster let alone get rid of those pieces that you suggested. Marner to Vegas is a non starter. Utah screams Mitch Marner to me. Not a real contender.

I agree that Marner probably isn't something Vegas is looking to do but...

Eichel was definitely trending toward that sort of high skill player who doesn't really reward your team results-wise.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Marchessault and Karlsson are part of the fabric of the team. They get both of them for less cost than Marner.

Vegas is a team which sets its sights on the Cup every year. Karlsson and JM are willing to pay that price in the playoffs. Marner's play can only be described as cowardly in the playoffs. He avoids contact at all costs. Mr. Perimeter should be his playoff nickname.

Stephenson is a glue guy who had 51 points and he is on a very reasonable deal.

As good as Vegas is at manipulating (some would say cheating) on the cap and their willingness to trade iconic players (Fleury), Marner's salary would almost be impossible to absorb.

At this point in his career, Marner has only proved himself as a regular season player. He's a perennial post season loser He's also a bit of a spoiled baby and I doubt that would play well in Vegas.

GM Kelly McCrimmon is way to smart to even want Marner on his roster let alone get rid of those pieces that you suggested. Marner to Vegas is a non starter. Utah screams Mitch Marner to me. Not a real contender.

vegas's entire MO has been to eschew loyalty and ignore sunk costs in order to make the team as competitive as possible.

marchessault and karlsson have been awesome for VGK. so too were fleury, smith, paccioretty and many more who were unceremoniously traded so they could go after bigger fish.

i could see them doing it for marner without an extension in place, as they just did with hanifin.

the "perimeter only" stuff undersells his elite defensive play, and a lot of these same criticisms were levied at jack eichel. that turned out pretty well for them.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I agree that Marner probably isn't something Vegas is looking to do but...

Eichel was definitely trending toward that sort of high skill player who doesn't really reward your team results-wise.

Two different types of players IMO. Eichel can play a bit of an edgy game while having a ton of finesse skills while Marner is completely devoid of the"edge" while no doubt being a very talented albeit strictly perimeter player with a ton of finesse in his game.

I also think that Eichel was a player who really legitimately fit into the often cliched "need a change of scenery" description. I think that the pressure of being the "C" on a bad team really wore on him. Eichel never seemed to be up to the leadership role in Buffalo. Going to Vegas allowed him to just concentrate on being the elite player that he is and not a franchise leader.

OTOH, Marner was just one of the 4 or 5 core guys and the pressure was divided among the 4 core forwards. A change of scenery will probably be good for him, but it's not going to relieve him of his playoff reputation which will hound him indefinitely-or until a miracle happens and he proves he can play "playoff hockey". Eichel didn't carry that baggage. And on a team like Vegas I think that makes a world of difference in each's attractiveness to that team.

 

[Xoggz22]

What about if Marner could become available to the CBJ?

Does it makes sense and what would the move be?

If we're looking to diversify our wings, this doesn't do that. I'm not saying he wouldn't be an upgrade but for his AAV and what it might cost to get him...and... only one year left on his deal. Big time pass in my book. I don't even think he would make the CBJ better. Soft, small and redundant (with, of course, more skill). This teams needs to diversify their holdings to balance the on-ice and off ice product.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

for his AAV and what it might cost to get him...and... only one year left on his deal. Big time pass in my book.

fwiw nobody is saying the jackets should be in on him as a pure rental – the idea would be to get him to be part of a core with fantilli.

the only team that i think would be into him as a pure rental would probably be vegas.

I don't even think he would make the CBJ better. Soft, small and redundant (with, of course, more skill). This teams needs to diversify their holdings to balance the on-ice and off ice product.

i disagree with the notion that marner would be 'redundant' with the current set of wingers on the grounds that he's significantly better than all of them at just about everything.

he's the same size as kent johnson, but is an elite skater and a fully developed player.

he's got johnny gaudreau's hands/playmaking, but in a bigger package, elite defense, higher willingness to shoot and more consistent production.

he's far more productive and consistent than their current RW1 (laine) without the question marks about health/availability, is a better power play weapon, and, again, plays elite defense.

he scored at a 101-point per 82gp pace this year, higher than marchenko (44-point pace) and chinakhov (45-point pace) combined – again, while playing elite defense.

 

[majormajor]

fwiw nobody is saying the jackets should be in on him as a pure rental – the idea would be to get him to be part of a core with fantilli.

the only team that i think would be into him as a pure rental would probably be vegas.

i disagree with the notion that marner would be 'redundant' with the current set of wingers on the grounds that he's significantly better than all of them at just about everything.

he's the same size as kent johnson, but is an elite skater and a fully developed player.

he's got johnny gaudreau's hands/playmaking, but in a bigger package, elite defense, higher willingness to shoot and more consistent production.

he's far more productive and consistent than their current RW1 (laine) without the question marks about health/availability, is a better power play weapon, and, again, plays elite defense.

he scored at a 101-point per 82gp pace this year, higher than marchenko (44-point pace) and chinakhov (45-point pace) combined – again, while playing elite defense.

You've almost talked me into it.

But then we probably have to trade KJ, no?

 

[stevo61]

You've almost talked me into it.

But then we probably have to trade KJ, no?

Id imagine he'd have to be part of the deal which obviously adds to the importance of knowing hes here longterm

 

[majormajor]

Id imagine he'd have to be part of the deal which obviously adds to the importance of knowing hes here longterm

Interesting - I was thinking that KJ is not the player type the Leafs would be looking for, that they'd want bigger bodied types or cheaper veterans like Jenner. But then again KJ is a cheap playmaker and they could use that to replace Marner.

The whole Marner discussion includes the hypothetical that he's extending here, we're not debating adding him without that.

 

[stevo61]

Interesting - I was thinking that KJ is not the player type the Leafs would be looking for, that they'd want bigger bodied types or cheaper veterans like Jenner. But then again KJ is a cheap playmaker and they could use that to replace Marner.

The whole Marner discussion includes the hypothetical that he's extending here, we're not debating adding him without that.

Yeah obviously there is pluses there whether thats bigger forwards/defensemen/whatever but to lose Marner and Tavares coming to the end of his deal makes that offense look a lot less special. Im guessing they'd want to mitigate that to some degree

 

[majormajor]

If Brady Tkachuk shakes loose then he's a much more compelling target for the Jackets than Mitch Marner. He fits the roster we have better and has more upside for the playoffs.

But @cbjthrowaway has made a compelling case for Marner, assuming Tkachuk isn't available. I think we've got to be ready to add elite talent through any means - draft, UFA, and trade.

 

[VT]

fwiw nobody is saying the jackets should be in on him as a pure rental – the idea would be to get him to be part of a core with fantilli.

the only team that i think would be into him as a pure rental would probably be vegas.

i disagree with the notion that marner would be 'redundant' with the current set of wingers on the grounds that he's significantly better than all of them at just about everything.

he's the same size as kent johnson, but is an elite skater and a fully developed player.

he's got johnny gaudreau's hands/playmaking, but in a bigger package, elite defense, higher willingness to shoot and more consistent production.

he's far more productive and consistent than their current RW1 (laine) without the question marks about health/availability, is a better power play weapon, and, again, plays elite defense.

he scored at a 101-point per 82gp pace this year, higher than marchenko (44-point pace) and chinakhov (45-point pace) combined – again, while playing elite defense.

It's great to compare players on different teams, as I can't remember Laine, Chinakhov, or Marchenko playing with similar players to Marner. You're also forgetting age, Marchenko is 3 years younger, Chinakhov is 4. I'm very interested to see how many points Mitch would have had if Toronto had a similar lineup to what we had last season, and he had to play 8 different lines, like Laine with an AHL defense and bottom 6 centers. Same with Chinakhov and Marchenko playing with Voronkov/Jenner/Sillinger.

Now to Even Strength/60 and his center.

Marner
2021/22 - 3.6 (Matthews 3.65)
2022/23 - 2.83 (Matthews 3.22)
2023/24 - 3.1 (Matthews 3.28)

Laine
2021/22 - 2.93 (Jenner 2.19)
2022/23 - 2.71 (Jenner 1.83 and Roslovic 1.97)

Unfortunately, it's hard to count Marchenko and Chinakhov, as not only are they younger, but they've played less in the NHL, and Yegor has been injured a lot.

Still compare Laine and Matthews - goals (only for comparing, I don't claim Patrik is better than Austin)

Matthews
2021/22 - 2,08 (ta/60 Marner - 2,23; Bunting - 1,99)
2022/23 - 1,32 (ta/60 Marner - 2,0; Bunting - 1,21)

Laine
2021/22 - 1,47 (ta/60 Voráček - 1,77; Nyquist - 1,5; Jenner - 1,22)
2022/23 - 0,97 (ta/60 Roslovic - 1,54; Gaudreau - 1,48; Chinakhov - 1,33; Johnson - 1,01; Marchenko 0,23)

 

[koteka]

I noticed this kid on the Rangers — Jack Roslovic. He has 5 points in 5 playoff games this year. He is a UFA. The funny thing is he is from Columbus. I wonder if he would ever consider signing with the Jackets.

 

[CBJx614]

If Brady Tkachuk shakes loose then he's a much more compelling target for the Jackets than Mitch Marner. He fits the roster we have better and has more upside for the playoffs.

But @cbjthrowaway has made a compelling case for Marner, assuming Tkachuk isn't available. I think we've got to be ready to add elite talent through any means - draft, UFA, and trade.

What it's going to come down to (obviously) is how aggressive the new GM wants to be.. are they going to want to slowly try to build around this team or are they going to want to shake things up and put their stamp on the roster right away?

I agree we have to take any means necessary to get that talent on the roster, I'm just not sold that Marner is the guy we should be targeting

 

[majormajor]

What it's going to come down to (obviously) is how aggressive the new GM wants to be.. are they going to want to slowly try to build around this team or are they going to want to shake things up and put their stamp on the roster right away?

I agree we have to take any means necessary to get that talent on the roster, I'm just not sold that Marner is the guy we should be targeting

I don't think "shaking things up" just to do it is a good thing for the Jackets. Our roster turnover in the last few years has been extreme.

Instead this is just about knowing that there are only so many opportunities to add elite talent. You can't just go to the store when you have the perfect fit, you have to buy when they shake loose.

 

[VT]

Marner is a similar player to Gaudreau. Soft, plays poorly under pressure, can't win battles at the boards. No one is asking him to play like Olivier, but no one can avoid that in the PO. And we'll get to the PO without him.

 

[CBJx614]

Wrong thread