Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[Selanne00008]

Hill is a truly unique player. How many teams have tried to draft 'the next Hill' only for them to bust? It's besides the point anyway - this team doesn't need to find 'the next Hill'. While he's a great player - KC haven't missed a beat without him & Miami haven't won anything with him. Just goes further to prove the theory that a #1/alpha receiver is simply not the necessity that many believe it to be....

If a player is productive playing in a certain role or within a certain scheme - it is absolutely fair to question how & why that production is happening. You then project that into how you see this offence coming together, how that meshes with current players on the roster, etc. It's not like playing Madden in rookie mode...

Yes and No on both bolded teams.

KC has certainly missed a beat in their passing game. Are they still winning? Yes, but it's not because they score a lot or have productive receivers (partially your point as well).

Miami def got better with Hill, but yes, again to your point. They haven't won much with him.

 

[Husko]

2024 HF Bills Big Board 38

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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Alright let's get this final poll up and running. With 67% of the vote each, Pearsall and Wiggins both come off the board. Three left for us to vote for in the final poll, vote for 1 or 2 or all 3 (though that won't move the needle at all...): 2024 HF Bills Big Board 38


1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)
19. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois (40%)
20. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (50%)
21. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington (60%)
22. Graham Barton, OL, Duke (100%)
23. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina (50%)
23. Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State (50%)
25. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia (50%)
26. Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia (50%)
26. Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona (50%)
26. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma (50%)
29. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama (67%)
30. Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri (50%)
31. Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State (33%)
31. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon (33%)

33. Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan (75%)
34. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas (50%)
34. Jalynn Polk, WR, Washington (50%)
36. Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida (67%)
36. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson (67%)

2024 HF Bills Big Board 38

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[Rowley Birkin]

So the Davis role, I see two key attributes/functions:
-Bigger body that can block down, play on the LOS, and in theory beat a press (though Davis was very bad at that)
-Field stretcher

The first part, Mack was obviously brought in for blocking. I don't know enough about Samuel to know his capacity playing on the LOS and beating a press. Shakir we can't say because Davis never left the field, he played mostly in the slot.

The second part, Samuel was obviously brought in for his ability to stretch the field. That component can also be partly filled by someone playing Diggs Z position.

So I guess the biggest disconnect is I don't see Samuel/Shakir as filling the Diggs role or as redundant with someone like McConkey. More than anything what I still see a big need for is an elite separator. It's what plagued us down the offense down the stretch each of the last two seasons and while it's something Samuel is good at, I don't think that's enough. The offense was at its best when it had 3 plus separators in Diggs, Brown, and Beasley.

If it simplifies things - then i see some combination of Shakir and/or Samuel filling the 'Z' role. While any combination of either those two or Kincaid filling the slot, with Knox playing in line when they are in such formations. Adding a McConkey, Pearsall or Wilson would basically add more competition for those two roles, with Hollins still slated to fill the 'X' role because no one else can.

This is why i felt the Samuel signing didn't make sense until the Diggs trade. Samuel essentially replaces Diggs, our guy tomorrow / Friday essentially replaces Davis. It makes far more sense to me when looking at it this way.

They absolutely need to take a safety somewhere. I don't know anything about the class after Dejean and Hicks though. I think it's one of the hardest positions for us amatuers to evaluate because it's so much what's between the ears.

Looking at Brugler's writeup, I wonder if Bullard would be a good fit:

So he's played FS, box, and slot. Instinctual player with lacking physical traits. Good production. sounds like a sort of perfect fit for what McDermott wants.

I think any position is hard to judge in a sense because none of us are part of the process. Even the most observant armchair GMs are at a loss.

Bullard fits this system to a tee IMO. DB is one of the few positions on the roster where they actively seem to shy away from guys with the physical traits (also applies to Kinchens). The position flexibility is where i was going with the poor man's DeJean comment.

I fear DeJean is the player i get attached to that they will either not get a chance to draft, or pass on completely. It happens every year.

 

[Husko]

If it simplifies things - then i see some combination of Shakir and/or Samuel filling the 'Z' role. While any combination of either those two or Kincaid filling the slot, with Knox playing in line when they are in such formations. Adding a McConkey, Pearsall or Wilson would basically add more competition for those two roles, with Hollins still slated to fill the 'X' role because no one else can.

This is why i felt the Samuel signing didn't make sense until the Diggs trade. Samuel essentially replaces Diggs, our guy tomorrow / Friday essentially replaces Davis. It makes far more sense to me when looking at it this way.

I just think it's very important we distinguish these three. Other than all being white and plus separators, I don't think they have a ton in common.

-Ladd played predominantly outside, only 29% in the slot
-Pearsall was schemed around a bit, but still 62% in the slot
-Wilson even more so, 72% in the slot

Your concerns about Pearsall and Wilson possibly being redunant with Samuel and Wilson I agree with. Ladd is a bonafide boundary receiver

 

[Rowley Birkin]

2024 HF Bills Big Board 38

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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Alright let's get this final poll up and running. With 67% of the vote each, Pearsall and Wiggins both come off the board. Three left for us to vote for in the final poll, vote for 1 or 2 or all 3 (though that won't move the needle at all...): 2024 HF Bills Big Board 38


1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)
19. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois (40%)
20. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (50%)
21. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington (60%)
22. Graham Barton, OL, Duke (100%)
23. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina (50%)
23. Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State (50%)
25. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia (50%)
26. Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia (50%)
26. Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona (50%)
26. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma (50%)
29. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama (67%)
30. Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri (50%)
31. Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State (33%)
31. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon (33%)

33. Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan (75%)
34. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas (50%)
34. Jalynn Polk, WR, Washington (50%)
36. Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida (67%)
36. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson (67%)

2024 HF Bills Big Board 38

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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Not necessarily for the Bills - but i think Paul & Tampa are two of this year's surprise picks who could go much higher thsn projected. Early R2 with late R1 possibility.

Adissa Isaac is another guy I'd put into that group too but we stopped being allowed to add players.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I just think it's very important we distinguish these three. Other than all being white and plus separators, I don't think they have a ton in common.

-Ladd played predominantly outside, only 29% in the slot
-Pearsall was schemed around a bit, but still 62% in the slot
-Wilson even more so, 72% in the slot

Your concerns about Pearsall and Wilson possibly being redunant with Samuel and Wilson I agree with. Ladd is a bonafide boundary receiver

I grouped the three in response to @Fezzy126 's OP. It has nothing to do with their skin colour.

I don't have access to these stats - but how many of McConkey's snaps were at' X' running those typical routes? He just doesn't strike me as being that type of player to be honest, while a guy like Franklin absolutely screams it. And Franklin is 10lb lighter.

 

[Husko]

I grouped the three in response to @Fezzy126 's OP. It has nothing to do with their skin colour.

I don't have access to these stats - but how many of McConkey's snaps were at' X' running those typical routes? He just doesn't strike me as being that type of player to be honest, while a guy like Franklin absolutely screams it. And Franklin is 10lb lighter.

I don't have the numbers on when he lined up on the LOS versus off, but his route tree is one of the best in the class. He ran real routes all the time.

Super diverse usage:

And he was very successful at pretty much every route except dig:

If I have time later I'll try to watch an all snaps video of him and see how often he's lining up on the LOS.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I don't have the numbers on when he lined up on the LOS versus off, but his route tree is one of the best in the class. He ran real routes all the time.

Super diverse usage: View attachment 858936

And he was very successful at pretty much every route except dig:

View attachment 858937


If I have time later I'll try to watch an all snaps video of him and see how often he's lining up on the LOS.

I get why you like the diversity - but I'm not sure it's necessary. Just give me a a guy who is good at going deep, that the opposing defence is going to have to constantly account for. And when it's thrown to him - he's capable of making the big plays.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

I am not even close to being a credible armchair scout. But if we're picking at 28, I think McConkey is my favorite at this point.

 

[Der Jaeger]

If Beane goes for a 2nd round receiver I think it should be Legette.

I'm sticking to this: Legette. Might be earlier than we think.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I'm sticking to this: Legette. Might be earlier than we think.

I posted earlier that it might need to be at #28. It could be BS but he seems like the big riser - he's visited so many teams & apparently there is very strong interest from Carolina.

I like him - but #28 is too early IMO. The only receiver I'd be especially happy with at #28 is BTJ - and i don't expect him to drop that far.

I do think Worthy will get over drafted & could well be the 4th WR off the board. I could also see BTJ dropping compared to the concensus mocks - but not as far as #28.

Where I'm at - go BPA at #28 & move up from #60 for your WR. At this point I expect the best value to be Franklin, somewhere early day 2.

 

[Husko]

Reposting Brugler's WR ranking list. Not to say he's right, but just to point out that the WR order, especially after the consensus top few guys, could be wildly different than any of us are expecting. Take any guy in Brugler's top 20 and I bet you can find a major draft pundit that has said player ten spots off in one direction.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Anything juicy ? Been traveling today

 

[Husko]

Anything juicy ? Been traveling today

They traded Josh Allen to move up for a receiver

 

[kirby11]

Took my annual stab at a mock draft, just selecting all the Bills picks, no trades. Was pretty pleased with how this one turned out, got a few favorable board falls.

28. Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa
60. Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
128. Mohamed Kamara, DE, Colorado State
133. Audric Estime, RB, Notre Dame
144. Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville
160. Leonard Taylor, DL, Florida
163. Matt Goncalves, OT, Pitt
200. Jaylin Simpson, CB, Auburn
204. Layden Robinson, IOL, Texas A&M
248. J.D. Bertrand, LB, Notre Dame

 

[Husko]

This is the one. No more. We're done.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

They traded Josh Allen to move up for a receiver

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Final mock. Keeping it 'best case' but realistic. All trades are in line with the Johnson value chart. I've based the value of 2025 picks one round later than their mid 2024 value:

I'm running to the podium if CDJ is there at 28. He's a difference maker, potentially our version of McDuffie or Hamilton.

28. DB Cooper DeJean

Trade with Houston: 42 & BUF 2025 R5 for 60 & BUF 2025 R2. Talked about this a lot - this is the range where the WRs start to go off the board. Houston get a pick back that goes some way to replacing the one they gave up for Diggs. Franklin is my favourite guy in this range (Mitchell & Legette were both off the board).

42. WR Troy Franklin

Trade with LA Chargers: 110 for 133 & 144. I was targeting a power back & Estime was off the board. Thought that LAC might also target one so wanted to get ahead.

110. RB Braelon Allen

Next pick i kept & drafted a guy who they have met with.

128. EDGE Javon Solomon

Trade with Denver: 145 for 160 & 204. I was targeting a developmental centre & both Bortolini/Nourzad were off the board.

145. OL Beaux Limmer

Next pick i kept & drafted another guy who they have met with.

163. DT Kristian Boyd

Next pick i kept & drafted the obligatory late round corner. Devonshire & Stiggers were both off the board.

200. CB Willie Drew

Final pick - at this point I'm just targeting someone that I've heard of who has a chance of being a sleeper.

245. DT Jaden Crumedy

I'd wanted to get another later round receiver, but nobody really stood out when i was making the picks.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I posted earlier that it might need to be at #28. It could be BS but he seems like the big riser - he's visited so many teams & apparently there is very strong interest from Carolina.

I like him - but #28 is too early IMO. The only receiver I'd be especially happy with at #28 is BTJ - and i don't expect him to drop that far.

I do think Worthy will get over drafted & could well be the 4th WR off the board. I could also see BTJ dropping compared to the concensus mocks - but not as far as #28.

Where I'm at - go BPA at #28 & move up from #60 for your WR. At this point I expect the best value to be Franklin, somewhere early day 2.

I’ll add one more part: if they don’t go receiver I think the pick is DeJean, if he falls that far.

Reposting Brugler's WR ranking list. Not to say he's right, but just to point out that the WR order, especially after the consensus top few guys, could be wildly different than any of us are expecting. Take any guy in Brugler's top 20 and I bet you can find a major draft pundit that has said player ten spots off in one direction.

View attachment 859051

Agree. And, there are 32 team boards which matter way more than any draftnik’s board. Some teams may have Legette as a late 1st pick.

That’s why I’ve written some of the stuff I posted. If Beane takes Legette at 28 and had him rated 1- but he’s that far down Brugler’s board, some people are going to get mad.

Beane is the professional with a whole staff and draftniks are largely scouting alone. I give immense credit to people like Brugler, but it’s a hard thing to do and they won’t be close on a lot of things.

 

[Fezzy126]

Final mocks from Norris and Jeremiah both have the Bills standing pat and drafting BTJ. Yes please.

 

[Jim Bob]

Speaking of the different takes on the WR class, here are the WR rankings for three different content creators that have put their WR rankings out there.

Final mocks from Norris and Jeremiah both have the Bills standing pat and drafting BTJ. Yes please.

If they can get BTJ without having to move up, that would be absolutely OK with me even if I am on #TeamTradeBack.

 

[Fezzy126]

This is my masterpiece:

 

[Jim Bob]

This is why I am not a fan of the idea that the Bills should give up 3 or 4 1st and 2nd round picks to go up and get one of the top 3 WRs in this class.



And while I don't like the idea of trading future picks, getting both BTJ and Worthy...

Daniel Jeremiah 2024 NFL mock draft 4.0: Two trades; 49ers, Chiefs pick WRs to close Round 1

28 Buffalo Bills Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU · WR · Junior
If Thomas starts to slip, it won't surprise me if the Bills move up for him. I could also see Buffalo trading back and trying to land a couple of receivers early on.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

This is why I am not a fan of the idea that the Bills should give up 3 or 4 1st and 2nd round picks to go up and get one of the top 3 WRs in this class.



And while I don't like the idea of trading future picks, getting both BTJ and Worthy...

Daniel Jeremiah 2024 NFL mock draft 4.0: Two trades; 49ers, Chiefs pick WRs to close Round 1

Getting both BTJ & Worthy would be terrible asset management. You're essentially telling everyone that you expect one of them to bust.

If there were absolutely no other holes on the roster then it would be more understandable - but we all know that this isn't the case.

 

[Jim Bob]

Getting both BTJ & Worthy would be terrible asset management. You're essentially telling everyone that you expect one of them to bust.

If there were absolutely no other holes on the roster then it would be more understandable - but we all know that this isn't the case.

Or, you view them as your two primary boundary WRs for the next 4+ years with Shakir in the slot.