zeke's Official Top-20 Center Rankings

[zeke]

And by official, I mean mine, of course.

So after all the fighting on the other threads, i tried to crank out a stats-based Center ranking, but nothing too fancy. At the same time it's both complicated and simple.


NOTE: IF YOU HATE STATS JUST SKIP TO THE BOTTOM FOR THE FINAL RANKINGS

Here's how I approached it.

I looked at the last 2 seasons. This imo is the best combo of "recent" and "good sample size" to judge a player's current value. But it's not perfect, of course, especially when it comes to very young or old players. But it's a good place to start. Second, I put an absolute cutoff at a minimum of 14 ES minutes played per game.

So firstly, I used "Offense" as my most basic criteria for the list of "top centers". i.e. to be a top center, you have to score like one, and if you can't score, you're not a top center no matter how good you are defensively. To judge offense, I used the even strength p/60 and p1/60 stats - basically I ranked the top-30 centers in p/60, and the top-30 centers in p1/60, and then combined the ranks. I know some people might complain about ignoring PP production, but imo PP production is way too noisy and small sample and any offensive ability the players have should show up at even strength anyways. But that wasn't enough - I wanted to adjust this offense for quality of competition as well - so that guys with easier matchups didn't get extra credit. I used opponents' ice time (TOIqoc) to judge quality of competition, and combined it with the scoring ranks. Note that this used their league-wide TOIqoc ranks, of all centers who played minimum 14es mpg. Here's the list of Top Offensive Centers I came up with:

Top Offensive Centers Last 2yrs

1.McDavid 7
2.MacKinnon 22
3.Scheifele 25
4.Crosby 27
5.Matthews 31
6.Barkov 33
7.Malkin 34
8.Stamkos 37
9.Tavares 40
10.Getzlaf 41
11.Backstrom 46
11.Couturier 46
13.Kopitar 48
13.Barzal 48
15.Toews 49
15.Monahan 49
17.Kuznetsov 52
18.Seguin 54
19.Kadri 56
20.Staal 58
21.Bergeron 60
22.Eichel 60
23.Point 68
24.Duchene 72
25.Stastny 72
26.Zetterberg 73
27.Krejci 89
28.Horvat 92

Some surprises on this list when QOC is factored in - namely, that a guy like Toews is still quite good offensively, while guys like Malkin and Kuz really get hammered for going up against much easier competition than most of the others.


Secondly, I wanted to factor in Possession. This was a bit more complicated, but basically I averaged out zone/score adjusted CF% and xGF% and ranked them, and then averaged out zone/score adjusted CFrel and xGFrel and ranked them......and then combined their ranks. Now key here is that I kind of cheated - because I was using OFFENSE as the main determinant of "top center", I didn't look at league-wide possession, but I only looked at the 28 centers who made the Offense list and ranked their possession against each other. I think the basic principal makes sense, though of course my execution of it is pretty hacktastic. And then, again, I needed to adjust for Quality of Competition, so once again I combined the averaged possession ranks with the TOIqoc ranks, and ranked these 28 centers' possession against each other:

Last 2yrs best offensive centers in order of Possession:

1.Bergeron 10
2.McDavid 12
3.Crosby 18
4.Couturier 21
5.Kopitar 28
6.Toews 29
7.Barkov 30
8.Scheifele 32
9.Tavares 39
10.Backstrom 39
11.MacKinnon 41
12.Getzlaf 44
13.Stastny 49
14.Staal 51
15.Kadri 54
16.Stamkos 55
17.Matthews 57
18.Point 59
19.Zetterberg 60
20.Seguin 61
21.Barzal 61
22.Malkin 70
23.Monahan 71
24.Duchene 72
25.Eichel 74
26.Kuznetsov 82
27.Krejci 83
28.Horvat 87

this seems to pass the smell test to me. all the guys with the great defensive reputations are right at the top, while the guys at the bottom are the guys you expect.

So now with these two lists, I just combined the qoc-adjusted offense and the qoc-adjusted possession, and it spat out this list:

ZEKE'S PERFECT TOP-20 CENTER RANKINGS

1.McDavid 19
2.Crosby 45
3.Scheifele 57
4.Barkov 63
5.MacKinnon 63
6.Couturier 67
7.Bergeron 70
8.Kopitar 76
9.Toews 78
10.Tavares 79
11.Getzlaf 85
12.Backstrom 85
13.Matthews 88
14.Stamkos 92
15.Malkin 104
16.Staal 109
17.Barzal 109
18.Kadri 110
19.Seguin 115
20.Monahan 120
​

Some guys stick out in surprising ways here - Couturier comes out looking really, really good, while a guy like Malkin drops way down. Guys like Kuznetsov and Eichel don't even make the list at all. Thing is, I don't have any problem with any of those results. In the end, I love how the list rewards guys like Barkov and Bergeron while also acknowledging the question marks on guys like Malkin and Barzal.

Note, though, that this isn't a prediction of which centers are necessarily the best RIGHT NOW, heading into THIS SEASON. To do that I would want to add in some kind of Age adjustment, which would favor which would bump up kids like Eichel, Barzal, Matthews while knocking down guys like Backstrom and Staal a bit.



So what do you think? does my list beat the NHL's? or the famous Hockey Guy's?

or is it poop?

Click to read more...

 

[Little Psycho]

Brb I'm creating my own list. You guys should too!

 

[WetcoastOrca]

And by official, I mean mine, of course.

So after all the fighting on the other threads, i tried to crank out a stats-based Center ranking, but nothing too fancy. At the same time it's both complicated and simple.


NOTE: IF YOU HATE STATS JUST SKIP TO THE BOTTOM FOR THE FINAL RANKINGS

Here's how I approached it.

I looked at the last 2 seasons. This imo is the best combo of "recent" and "good sample size" to judge a player's current value. But it's not perfect, of course, especially when it comes to very young or old players. But it's a good place to start. Second, I put an absolute cutoff at a minimum of 14 ES minutes played per game.

So firstly, I used "Offense" as my most basic criteria for the list of "top centers". i.e. to be a top center, you have to score like one, and if you can't score, you're not a top center no matter how good you are defensively. To judge offense, I used the even strength p/60 and p1/60 stats - basically I ranked the top-30 centers in p/60, and the top-30 centers in p1/60, and then combined the ranks. I know some people might complain about ignoring PP production, but imo PP production is way too noisy and small sample and any offensive ability the players have should show up at even strength anyways. But that wasn't enough - I wanted to adjust this offense for quality of competition as well - so that guys with easier matchups didn't get extra credit. I used opponents' ice time (TOIqoc) to judge quality of competition, and combined it with the scoring ranks. Note that this used their league-wide TOIqoc ranks, of all centers who played minimum 14es mpg. Here's the list of Top Offensive Centers I came up with:

Top Offensive Centers Last 2yrs

1.McDavid 7
2.MacKinnon 22
3.Scheifele 25
4.Crosby 27
5.Matthews 31
6.Barkov 33
7.Malkin 34
8.Stamkos 37
9.Tavares 40
10.Getzlaf 41
11.Backstrom 46
11.Couturier 46
13.Kopitar 48
13.Barzal 48
15.Toews 49
15.Monahan 49
17.Kuznetsov 52
18.Seguin 54
19.Kadri 56
20.Staal 58
21.Bergeron 60
22.Eichel 60
23.Point 68
24.Duchene 72
25.Stastny 72
26.Zetterberg 73
27.Krejci 89
28.Horvat 92

Some surprises on this list when QOC is factored in - namely, that a guy like Toews is still quite good offensively, while guys like Malkin and Kuz really get hammered for going up against much easier competition than most of the others.


Secondly, I wanted to factor in Possession. This was a bit more complicated, but basically I averaged out zone/score adjusted CF% and xGF% and ranked them, and then averaged out zone/score adjusted CFrel and xGFrel and ranked them......and then combined their ranks. Now key here is that I kind of cheated - because I was using OFFENSE as the main determinant of "top center", I didn't look at league-wide possession, but I only looked at the 28 centers who made the Offense list and ranked their possession against each other. I think the basic principal makes sense, though of course my execution of it is pretty hacktastic. And then, again, I needed to adjust for Quality of Competition, so once again I combined the averaged possession ranks with the TOIqoc ranks, and ranked these 28 centers' possession against each other:

Last 2yrs best offensive centers in order of Possession:

1.Bergeron 10
2.McDavid 12
3.Crosby 18
4.Couturier 21
5.Kopitar 28
6.Toews 29
7.Barkov 30
8.Scheifele 32
9.Tavares 39
10.Backstrom 39
11.MacKinnon 41
12.Getzlaf 44
13.Stastny 49
14.Staal 51
15.Kadri 54
16.Stamkos 55
17.Matthews 57
18.Point 59
19.Zetterberg 60
20.Seguin 61
21.Barzal 61
22.Malkin 70
23.Monahan 71
24.Duchene 72
25.Eichel 74
26.Kuznetsov 82
27.Krejci 83
28.Horvat 87

this seems to pass the smell test to me. all the guys with the great defensive reputations are right at the top, while the guys at the bottom are the guys you expect.

So now with these two lists, I just combined the qoc-adjusted offense and the qoc-adjusted possession, and it spat out this list:

ZEKE'S PERFECT TOP-20 CENTER RANKINGS

1.McDavid 19
2.Crosby 45
3.Scheifele 57
4.Barkov 63
5.MacKinnon 63
6.Couturier 67
7.Bergeron 70
8.Kopitar 76
9.Toews 78
10.Tavares 79
11.Getzlaf 85
12.Backstrom 85
13.Matthews 88
14.Stamkos 92
15.Malkin 104
16.Staal 109
17.Barzal 109
18.Kadri 110
19.Seguin 115
20.Monahan 120
​

Some guys stick out in surprising ways here - Couturier comes out looking really, really good, while a guy like Malkin drops way down. Guys like Kuznetsov and Eichel don't even make the list at all. Thing is, I don't have any problem with any of those results. In the end, I love how the list rewards guys like Barkov and Bergeron while also acknowledging the question marks on guys like Malkin and Barzal.

Note, though, that this isn't a prediction of which centers are necessarily the best RIGHT NOW, heading into THIS SEASON. To do that I would want to add in some kind of Age adjustment, which would favor which would bump up kids like Eichel, Barzal, Matthews while knocking down guys like Backstrom and Staal a bit.



So what do you think? does my list beat the NHL's? or the famous Hockey Guy's?

or is it poop?

We don’t often agree but credit where credit is due. I think it’s a good list and backed up with objective stats. The only one I strongly disagree with is Kadri. Way too high imo. This is why I think using certain stats leads to anomalies. I doubt that there’s a single GM in the league who would take Kadri over a number of the players behind him. I also think Couts and Toews are quite a bit too high. Overall I think you’re over estimating how QOC impacts rankings.

 

[txpd]

Kadri in. Kuznetsov out. OK...next?

 

[Critical13]

bless your heart

 

[Ainec]

9.Toews 78


ouch

 

[Maukkis]

Hands down fantastic.

Maybe I would question the weight you are putting on QoC, but other than that, I really like this one. No bias, no nonsense.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Good work. No bias at all in this. I commend you.

 

[Spawn]

Surely there are more than 28 centres that averaged more than 14 even strength minutes a game over the past two seasons. Why a top 28?

 

[BruinsBtn]

Funny how you're such a big fan of even strength scoring now. When Phil Kessel was on the Leafs and putting up 30% of his points on the powerplay you didn't feel that way. Now that Matthews is the Leafs best player and struggling on powerplay, you don't think powerplay points count at all.

 

[AKL]

I’m more impressed with this list than I thought I would be. Still some rankings I question, but you backed up the rankings with reasoning so I won’t argue.

 

[zeke]

Surely there are more than 28 centres that averaged more than 14 even strength minutes a game over the past two seasons. Why a top 28?

those 28 were the only centers to crack BOTH the top-30 in ES p/60 and ES p1/60, of guys with 14+ es minutes.

admittedly, this might mean someone may have fallen through the cracks - but I thought that was actually a generous place to start, which ended up including a few guys who I knew wouldn't survive to the final list right away.

 

[K Fleur]

Officially one of the worst lists put out this summer.

 

[PenguinSpeed]

-The funny part is, the powerplay is a huge part of the game. You can question Malkin all you want. 3 Stanley Cups and he is laughing at your team

 

[zeke]

Funny how you're such a big fan of even strength scoring now. When Phil Kessel was on the Leafs and putting up 30% of his points on the powerplay you didn't feel that way. Now that Matthews is the Leafs best player and struggling on powerplay, you don't think powerplay points count at all.

er.....Kessel has always been a great ES scorer?

Career ES: 2.20p/60, 1.83p1/60

(compare to a guy like, say, backstrom: 2.06p/60, 1.44p1/60)


and.....er....Matthews is excellent on the PP?

Career PP: 6.29p/60, 4.49p1/60

 

[Spawn]

those 28 were the only centers to crack BOTH the top-30 in ES p/60 and ES p1/60, of guys with 14+ es minutes.

admittedly, this might mean someone may have fallen through the cracks - but I thought that was actually a generous place to start, which ended up including a few guys who I knew wouldn't survive to the final list right away.

Ah okay. Got it, thanks.

Surprised draisaitl didn’t make the cut.

 

[Marshy]

Leafs top 3 in there. Good to see.

 

[zeke]

Ah okay. Got it, thanks.

Surprised draisaitl didn’t make the cut.

ah. yes Draisaitl - I actually didn't include him (or giroux) as centers here. Over the last 2yrs both have played at least half their games on the wing, and achieved by far their most success there.

Drai would come out looking very good in this analysis, no doubt.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Malkin has lead the NHL in points per 60 minutes in 4 of the last 6 seasons, including last season. He's also #3 among active players in career points per game and is coming off a 98 point season, and a key cog in a 3 time cup winning team. If he ends up 15th on a list of best centers, the methodology is the problem.

 

[DitchMarner]

McDavid really looks good on the final list relative to other top centres.

 

[zeke]

Malkin has lead the NHL in points per 60 minutes in 4 of the last 6 seasons, including last season. He's also #3 among active players in career points per game and is coming off a 98 point season, and a key cog in a 3 time cup winning team. If he ends up 15th on a list of best centers, the methodology is the problem.

possibly.

then again he plays and has always played in a very cushy role, behind the best center of his generation, and is a negative possession player even in that sheltered role.

 

[zeke]

McDavid really looks good on the final list relative to other top centres.

yeah it's utter domination for Mcdavid at this point.

 

[BruinsBtn]

er.....Kessel has always been a great ES scorer?

Career ES: 2.20p/60, 1.83p1/60

(compare to a guy like, say, backstrom: 2.06p/60, 1.44p1/60)


and.....er....Matthews is excellent on the PP?

Career PP: 6.29p/60, 4.49p1/60

You didn't address the hypocrisy. When you argued you would never in a million years trade Kessel for Bergeron(!) all you cared about was total offense. And when you argued Bozak and Stajan(!) were better than Bergeron all you cared about was total offense. Why the convenient change of heart?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Like I said a good attempt to objectively assess the centers.
The problem I’ve always had with taking certain stats is that they don’t tell the whole story. In other words it’s not that the stats aren’t useful it’s the weight given to the stats and the choice of certain stats that lead to anomalous results.
In the end I always look for anomalous results (ie results that are way off not results I just disagree with) and ask the question would any GM trade one player for another.
A few anomalies IMO:
1. Malkin way too low.
2. Couts, Toews, Kadri and Monahan way too high.
If I had to guess at the reasons it would be placing an over emphasis on QOC which turns second line centers who are relied on heavily by a team into first line centers in your rankings. I also think that ignoring PP production leads to anomalies like Malkin. A highly productive PP player is a huge asset in today’s NHL.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

well it's all centers so yes, you beat THG