GDT: Your New Jersey Devils (32-21-6, 70 Pts) @ Colorado Avalanche (33-24-2, 68 Pts), 9:30 PM, MSGSN

[TheUnseenHand]

No you're not, you think it's a legitimate concern right now. It isn't, though.

I was literally just talking to a coworker yesterday saying I thought they should make the playoffs easily lol.

But small doubt is definitely starting to creep it's way in, absolutely.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I know everyone enjoys playing revisionist history for Fitz’s “overcorrection” from 22-23 to now, but I think people forget how and where that depth moved.

Still here: Jack, Bratt, Nico, Timo, Haula, Palat, Mercer, Bastian, Lazar.

Traded: Sharangovich for Toffoli, who gave worthwhile production while he was here.

Stayed, no longer here: McLeod, less said the better.

Walked away from: Wood, Boqvist, Tatar. Only Boqvist seems to be one that was a mistake, Tatar is back and has regressed since that season.

I think this lies on Fitz currently of course to bring in the right support , but the narrative of him having overcorrected since that playoff year bothers me because the roster needed to be reworked. Anyone who thinks it wasn’t worthwhile to bring in Markstrom and Allen while overhauling the defense clearly wasn’t paying close attention to our issues last season.

Unfortunately, there is a lot not going well for the forward group right now all at once’s. Noesen has cooled off. Cotter has cooled off. Haula has possibly completely lost it. Timo can’t buy a goal. Mercer can’t buy a goal. We just ran through the entire offensive supporting cast.

I still think the core of this team can compete with anyone. But it has become too reliant on the best players to drag them through every game right now. More support depth is needed up front.

 

[Clam Jensen]

I want to just snap my fingers and jump to the TDL and then skip to the playoffs. What an unenjoyable slog this team is in.

 

[RSeen]

That's more of an indictment of how shit the team is 5 on 5 than it is of how good he has been. Bad teams have goal scorers too.

Helps to play with our two best offensive forwards too. Palat is being carried.

 

[IDEKWTM]

So basically six points better with much better goaltending lol

Better system

 

[Whaddagoal]

Sad that after the season start and December play we are now barely better than last seasons team.

Better, yes but not by a large lot. Massive upgrade in goaltending and moderate upgrade on defense / defense system.

keefes system traded less rush chances for safer 5v5 play. special teams success has driven some of the wins.

Is it worth it? we will see how far / if we get to playoffs.

So far it is a slight upgrade, but seeing how inept our 5v5 scoring is against good teams right now, minus a few key players, I'm a little worried.

 

[NJDevs26]

Better system

In theory yes but as we’ve gone more defensive the offense has had even more disappearing acts

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I was literally just talking to a coworker yesterday saying I thought they should make the playoffs easily lol.

But small doubt is definitely starting to creep it's way in, absolutely.

nah.

The Rangers are the first team out at the moment, tied with Boston and Ottawa. Boston basically already admitted they're going to sell. Ottawa doesn't have Tkachuk and have lost like 6 in a row.

Any of these teams scare you as far as getting 9 points more than you down the stretch? Because that is what it'd take.

 

[Devs3cups]

I’m not overly worried about this team making the playoffs. I’m pretty sure they’ll do it.

With that being said, getting into the playoffs playing like they are right now wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence.

 

[Better Call Sal]

In theory yes but as we’ve gone more defensive the offense has had even more disappearing acts

While there is something to be said for how much we might be potentially sacrificing on the offensive side, are we longing for that type of hockey that we played under Lindy? Wanting to pull my hair out every night because I know that we're not going to hold onto a lead to save our lives?

The team is playing a more capable style of hockey to be successful in the long run. That much is clear. But, the depth at forward does not appear to be able to generate enough within this system currently to be successful. It was working well in the early going.

Haula had 8 points in the first 13 games of the season. He now has 3 in his last 34.
Cotter had 12 points in his first 19 games. He now has 6 goals and 7 points in his last 40.
Timo gets bagged on for not scoring but he at least has 10 points total in his last 19 games, even if only one is a goal. He does, however, only have 1 assist in his last 6 games.
Mercer has 4 goals and 6 points in his last 21.
Noesen had 13 goals and 22 points in his first 27 games. He now has 6 goals and 10 points in his last 31.

I applaud Keefe for sticking with the lines that were working for as long as he did, but I think it is time to rethink having Jack and Bratt together. The rest of the lines need some sort of spark, and putting Bratt on another line can hopefully provide that.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Meier looks like he has all but totally lost his confidence when handling the puck in a shooting position. Fumbling it and hesitating and nearly falling over himself.

Two potential ways to get him going would be: (1) play him with Hughes. (2) move him onto power play one in place of Bratt. This also helps puck retrieval and standing up to pressure from the PK

I would argue that getting Meier going is the single biggest potential fix we can rig.

 

[CalamityX23]

Didnt see the game, score states it wasn't pretty

saw the quick game recap highlights, Allen lost sight on 2 of those goals... sucks.... but hardly any NJD attempts(seen through the highlights)....

f*** us

Meier looks like he has all but totally lost his confidence when handling the puck in a shooting position. Fumbling it and hesitating and nearly falling over himself.

Two potential ways to get him going would be: (1) play him with Hughes. (2) move him onto power play one in place of Bratt. This also helps puck retrieval and standing up to pressure from the PK

I would argue that getting Meier going is the single biggest potential fix we can rig.

This is so true..... if Meier can get back to scoring, it would be a tremendous game changer for this offense...

Hopefully Keefe can figure out how to get him going.... I actually think he needs a playmaker by him more than anything.... Him and Mercer have run its course.... IMO.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Timo and Nico do work well together. I think they should stick unless we bring in a center that can be more reliable than Dowling to play with him as a line driver. Nico's line is always going to shoulder a heavier defensive load, which probably makes the 5-on-5 offensive opportunities more difficult to come by. And to Timo's credit, he's done well in that regard. But we need his offense, and need to find a way to get him more chances to bust through the dam.

 

[billingtons ghost]

You said Timo has been an unlucky shooter for 3 years. Why is his shooting percentage only poor this year?

Generally, why don’t players consistently shoot about the same every year? Are players constantly getting out of shape and in shape? Are they forgetting how to score some years and remembering in others?


You have it backwards, the people watching him play can see he’s generating a lot of chances lately while the people saying he’s bad are just pointing at the number of goals.

I am not sure where you're getting this. Is this someone's else's quote that you're attributing to me?

And to answer your questions:
Yes, their confidence changes drastically from month to month and year to year. Yes, their conditioning changes drastically from year to year. Yes, their commitment and ability to score changes from year to year. I don't think anytime had problems with Timo not scoring 'because he was injured', and it was clear after he came back healthy 'he was a different player'.

So, I think your 'luck' argument is weak.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Better system

And better, stable D pairings with healthy Siegs and the Dillon, Kovacevic adds.

 

[Devils731]

I am not sure where you're getting this. Is this someone's else's quote that you're attributing to me?

And to answer your questions:
Yes, their confidence changes drastically from month to month and year to year. Yes, their conditioning changes drastically from year to year. Yes, their commitment and ability to score changes from year to year. I don't think anytime had problems with Timo not scoring 'because he was injured', and it was clear after he came back healthy 'he was a different player'.

So, I think your 'luck' argument is weak.

It was someone else replying to you in sarcastic agreement, I believe. So I withdraw.

Change the word luck to randomness. A player could shoot at an empty net from across the rink and hit it 8 out 10 sometimes, 6 out of 10 sometimes, and 10 out of 10 sometimes.

He will be the same player doing the same things but sometimes the puck will go in more often than others and that’s just how the world turns. You can’t force it to always be 10 out of 10 no matter how good your process and preparation.

 

[billingtons ghost]

In theory yes but as we’ve gone more defensive the offense has had even more disappearing acts

But there's a legit question here:
Some games, the offense is in full bloom. We're sixth in the league in shots.
Is it reaaaaalllly that the defensive system is having a negative impact or is it the players not playing?

Maybe there's more to @Bleedred 's take about our defensemen not being involved in the offense. Clearly they were in our win against Nashville.

Rather than system, though, I think that outside of Dougie and Luke's, there's really not much basic involvement and we don't seem to keep sustained pressure in the zone.

That is partly on us being a fairly weak forechecking/board battle team.

It was someone else replying to you in sarcastic agreement, I believe. So I withdraw.

Change the word luck to randomness. A player could shoot at an empty net from across the rink and hit it 8 out 10 sometimes, 6 out of 10 sometimes, and 10 out of 10 sometimes.

He will be the same player doing the same things but sometimes the puck will go in more often than others and that’s just how the world turns. You can’t force it to always be 10 out of 10 no matter how good your process and preparation.

Sure there's a component, but I would say it's 1% or less. $ 9m in particular players make their own luck.

 

[Bleedred]

But there's a legit question here:
Some games, the offense is in full bloom. We're sixth in the league in shots.
Is it reaaaaalllly that the defensive system is having a negative impact or is it the players not playing?

Maybe there's more to @Bleedred 's take about our defensemen not being involved in the offense. Clearly they were in our win against Nashville.

Rather than system, though, I think that outside of Dougie and Luke's, there's really not much basic involvement and we don't seem to keep sustained pressure in the zone.

That is partly on us being a fairly weak forechecking/board battle team.

I think you misunderstood me. I never said our defense isn’t involved in the offense, just that getting rid of Dougie and having a defense where 5 of the guys were Siegenthaler, Dillon, Pesce, Kovacevic (who people have said they wanted to re-sign if we can move Dougie) and Nemec, all defensemen who can’t even break 20 points or at least haven’t proven they can/proven anything would be one of the most offensively sorriest defenses we could have in the modern NHL.

But yeah, 4 of them have been regulars this year and 4 of them are really bad at producing offense. Not bad overall defensemen, just no offense to their games at all. It’s just not their game.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I think you misunderstood me. I never said our defense isn’t involved in the offense, just that getting rid of Dougie and having a defense where 5 of the guys were Siegenthaler, Dillon, Pesce, Kovacevic (who people have said they wanted to re-sign if we can move Dougie) and Nemec, all defensemen who can’t even break 20 points or at least haven’t proven they can/proven anything would be one of the most offensively sorriest defenses we could have in the modern NHL.

Yeah, I get our takes are slightly different. But I'm kinda agreeing that our personnel on the back line limits our offense.

Last night you see Makar, Toewes, deHaan, Girard etc moving through the neutral zone and after entry are in out zone and the puck is zipping around. The first period was positively terrifying.

There's not an element of 'five man hockey' to our game and there isn't any support for the first three guys in the zone (hell, most times it's just jack and Bratt two on five).

I think that's a big part of our scoring troubles, esp when you get to Noesen/Cotter/Bastian who need to get deflections and rebound from low to high point shots

 

[NJDevs26]

I think you misunderstood me. I never said our defense isn’t involved in the offense, just that getting rid of Dougie and having a defense where 5 of the guys were Siegenthaler, Dillon, Pesce, Kovacevic (who people have said they wanted to re-sign if we can move Dougie) and Nemec, all defensemen who can’t even break 20 points or at least haven’t proven they can/proven anything would be one of the most offensively sorriest defenses we could have in the modern NHL.

But yeah, 4 of them have been regulars this year and 4 of them are really bad at producing offense. Not bad overall defensemen, just no offense to their games at all. It’s just not their game.

That’s the other change we’ve made since two years ago that doesn’t get talked about nearly as much as ‘getting more physical’ and yes we are more solid in our own zone now, but we also lost a lot of the transition game we had two years ago.

 

[billingtons ghost]

That’s the other change we’ve made since two years ago that doesn’t get talked about nearly as much as ‘getting more physical’ and yes we are more solid in our own zone now, but we also lost a lot of the transition game we had two years ago.

Not that I wanted to keep them, but Marino/Severson were good in this regard.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

I’m not overly worried about this team making the playoffs. I’m pretty sure they’ll do it.

With that being said, getting into the playoffs playing like they are right now wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Just “making the playoffs” also wasn’t exactly the bill of sale coming into the season.

 

[CalamityX23]

Timo and Nico do work well together. I think they should stick unless we bring in a center that can be more reliable than Dowling to play with him as a line driver. Nico's line is always going to shoulder a heavier defensive load, which probably makes the 5-on-5 offensive opportunities more difficult to come by. And to Timo's credit, he's done well in that regard. But we need his offense, and need to find a way to get him more chances to bust through the dam.

Yea, I think Nico & Timo are good for each other, definitely don't want that breaking up.

But not seeing Timo and Mercer doing anything of substance anymore. It's been awhile watching them as linemates and I don't think its helping more so Timo than Mercer.

We can still find a playmaking winger(not that we want one above other priorities) to help out Timo. Something needs to change.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Just “making the playoffs” also wasn’t exactly the bill of sale coming into the season.

its the first step, is it not? Once you get in, anything can happen. If they do end up playing Carolina, which looks destined at this point, are you really scared of that team? They have played similar hockey to NJ the last few months and have suspect goaltending.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

its the first step, is it not? Once you get in, anything can happen. If they do end up playing Carolina, which looks destined at this point, are you really scared of that team? They have played similar hockey to NJ the last few months and have suspect goaltending.

The first step was two years ago. Also, again, not what the expectation was coming into the season - nobody, this board included, was pegging them as a “back into the playoffs” bubble team.

I’d be scared playing like they are, yes. I know Carolina isn’t lighting the world on fire either, but they’re good at home and right now we’re pissing away home ice advantage.

And I know you guys are pop-pooing the fact that the playoffs in general are in jeopardy, but the fact is they have little separation at this point. Hardly foregone conclusion they even play Carolina the way it was two months ago. Anything can happen in theory. Less so playing like they are, is the point. It’s not a blip anymore.