Would Carolina have matched if the offer sheet was 5x10.5?

[895]

Most people agree it was too easy for Carolina to match.

What if the offersheet had been 5x10.5?

Broken down like this: 14, 14, 10.5, 7, 7, with 26m in bonuses due in first calendar year.

Compensation would be 2 firsts, 1 second, 1 third.

Click to read more...

 

[Primetime8]

Most people agree it was too easy for Carolina to match.

What if the offersheet had been 5x10.5?

Broken down like this: 14, 14, 10.5, 7, 7, with 26m in bonuses due in first calendar year.

Compensation would be 2 firsts, 1 second, 1 third.

Yes, they said a week before this all happened that they were going to match any offersheet. It was never really a question.

 

[895]

Yes, they said a week before this all happened that they were going to match any offersheet. It was never really a question.

Well I mean, I don't think match a crazy 5x16 offersheet.

 

[Canes]

Anything below the 4 1sts threshold was an easy match. I think the Habs would have had to go over 12 AAV to get Dundon to even think about not matching. Basically I agree with what Craig Button said.

 

[Primetime8]

Well I mean, I don't think match a crazy 5x16 offersheet.

Technically you're right so I won't argue there. Realistically no team is giving up 4 first round picks - so your 10.5M is the highest logical amount anyone would ever offer.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

No doubt they match. Too early to tell if the regret it or not though. Probably the right call.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

It likely would have also been a match, but with much higher chances for it to succeed for MTL (like 20-25%, as opposed to 0.001% for 8.4m). 12m, on the other hand, would have been 50-50 IMO.

 

[biturbo19]

Aho is too critical to that team's resurgence after a long wait, for them to be able to do anything other than match whatever offer came through. They literally could not afford to let him go. Period.

Ratcheting up the price would've been a smart move for Montreal, or another Conference rival...in that it would have hurt the Canes more overall in fitting his cap number into the future. But it was always pretty much a near auto-match situation. Offer sheets are moronic and do not work, at all.

The only real "weapon" element in this whole thing, was the term. Which brings Aho straight to UFA. And that's really it. That was the crux of it, and the only remotely useful element to the whole ordeal. The Canes now have to deal with the superstar being an impending UFA in 5 years. Odds are though...neither GM is still actually around with their respective team to capitalize or suffer from those consequences by then anyway.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I'm not sure honestly.

Aho got to this point because Carolina refused to offer him a similar deal. Reports suggested they were offering 6.000 per season. Going up to 8.454 is an easy match, but going up to 10.500 is a whole different ball game IMO. That's 4.500 (75%) more than CAR was offering, and it's arguably an over-payment for Aho.

I guess I lean towards CAR matching, but I don't think it's as guaranteed as others seem to think.

Also, if it were going to be the four 1sts, it wouldn't make sense to choose Aho. It's gotta be Point or Marner in that case IMO. 10.5xx was the best bet for Aho.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Possible they wouldn't but I think they would.

 

[bobholly39]

The bonus was the stickler. I dont think the 8.5 vs 10.5 is a deal breaker so voted option 2

The problem is - if Carolina really didnt want to pay the bonus - they still do it at 8.5 if not its an embarassment as the return is too low.

At 10.5 and 2 firsts at least it gives them a face saving way out if they wanted it. The reason for not matching would be the bonus but publicly the story would be "well 2 firsts in todays league is tremendous value. Were bothered Aho wanted to leave. Overpaying a player is bad in cap era. Etc etc"
They could have spinned it.


They didnt have a choice at this price to match though

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Teams need to stop massaging the offer sheets with financial quirks and potential pitfalls. That does not get the attention of the team with the RFA.

FOUR firsts gets their attention. Owners have cash, even when they do not, to keep top talent.

The combination of too much money, too much term and too many draft picks in return is how you will land an RFA from another franchise.

They are way overthinking this and should have learned from the Shea Weber experience seven years ago.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

they would have matched anything barring the completely absurd

nhl salaries are nothing to dundon. the entire salary cap is a rounding error to him.

 

[koyvoo]

Yes, they would’ve matched 10.5M

 

[treple13]

That fact that Montreal didn't offer 10.5 makes me assume they didn't actually want the offer sheet to succeed that badly.

I still think there's something fishy going on here. This was a HUGE favour Montreal did to Carolina. I'm still trying to figure out what Montreal gains out of this.

 

[trick9]

If they had matched that without a doubt, why not just give Aho the 9.5m he was asking all along?

 

[Hahahax]

That fact that Montreal didn't offer 10.5 makes me assume they didn't actually want the offer sheet to succeed that badly.

I still think there's something fishy going on here. This was a HUGE favour Montreal did to Carolina. I'm still trying to figure out what Montreal gains out of this.

A huge favor of taking him to free agency while the hurricanes were adamant on 8 years and offered below 8M by all reports?

That's what Dundon and Waddell try to make you believe. They can't be happy about it. The contract is pretty good dollar wise, but it's a lot worse than they were expecting term wise. We'll know how good the contract was in 5 years, when Aho has a decision to make.

Edit: If Aho expected to get this deal that you claim is so good for the org... why did he have to sign an offer sheet? Why didnt he take the offer sheet to Waddell first and negotiate from there? Something does not add up in the Canes attitude.

 

[SotasicA]

Realistically no team is giving up 4 first round picks

For the right player, why not. Four 1sts for a Marner makes sense to me, for instance.

 

[Primetime8]

For the right player, why not. Four 1sts for a Marner makes sense to me, for instance.

I was implying for Aho, my bad. I wouldnt for Marner either.

Now if we are talking McDavid or a McDavid level player, sure. I'll give up 4 1sts but it probably would need an 8 year deal

 

[SotasicA]

I was implying for Aho, my bad. I wouldnt for Marner either.

Now if we are talking McDavid or a McDavid level player, sure. I'll give up 4 1sts but it probably would need an 8 year deal

I would agree Montreal is in no position to give up four 1sts. But a top contender that expects to win at least one round each year could maybe think four 25th-32nd overall picks are worth Aho.

 

[YakDavid]

It would have had to be crazy money. Remember the 4 firsts are coming from a team that immediately get a very good play. With that the first tend to be later in the first round over early. Also a player like Aho who is 21 and putting up good numbers as a center is rare to come by. You could get a player like Aho's in the draft or you could have Aho

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Waddell said he was surprised it wasn't more. And a number bigger than 8.5M had already been brought up in their negotiations with Aho.

The whole purpose of OS is to make things even more uncomfortable than they already were during negotiations, and i think the Canes were already prepared to pay something in the 9-range if it came to that, without any OS happening at all.

So yeah, i think things would've become much more uncomfortable for the Canes, and they would've definitely taken their time to make a decision and look at every angle unlike matching in a day like they did now. But like Waddell said, Aho is their best player and it's tough to give that up. Canes just aren't in a position where they're ready to take any step backs short-term. They just had a successful season after many many years and created a buzz around the team. The GM wants and expects results now. There's no way they agree internally to postpone success for another 5 years or so until a new 1C emerges just because of 1-2 million. No way.

 

[Hostile Offer]

I would agree Montreal is in no position to give up four 1sts. But a top contender that expects to win at least one round each year could maybe think four 25th-32nd overall picks are worth Aho.

That contender likely doesn't have $11+ million hanging around in cap.

 

[elmaco]

Ofcourse they would match, Aho brings crowds and sells jerseys.

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.