With potentially $5M in new cap space what assets might be outbound?

[LeafGrief]

If they aren't worth it now, when will they be ready?

When we have confidence that Mitch Marner isn't going to disappear in the playoffs again.

I really cannot understate how big of a deal for our team (and any team for that matter) that our 2nd best player is a shrinking violet who becomes a net negative in the playoffs. Mortgaging the future on a rickety house with no foundation is not nearly as smart of an investment in a house with a great foundation and has been fully inspected. This Leafs team has great players on it, the talent is all there, but they've been a house of cards in the playoffs for at least three years and nothing this year has indicated that has changed.

I don't mind spending on rentals. But I'm absolutely price conscious about it, because the Leafs single biggest need is to get Marner sorted out mentally, so spending too much is a waste. And I do not for a second believe that there is anything special about this year that begs us to go all in. This is the year that Dubas has doubled down on Marner and I don't blame him one bit for that bet, but that doesn't mean I support putting all of our assets into this playoff run.

 

[GrizzGreen]

There's nothing wrong with rentals, especially with this Muzzin situation BUT the rental has to come at a fair price and be a true impact player not hot garbage like Foligno or Plekanec. Someone like Giroux for example, if the price is right.

Agreed. This year's market should be quite a bit better... not a lot of options to target last year imo.

 

[ACC1224]

When we have confidence that Mitch Marner isn't going to disappear in the playoffs again.

I really cannot understate how big of a deal for our team (and any team for that matter) that our 2nd best player is a shrinking violet who becomes a net negative in the playoffs. Mortgaging the future on a rickety house with no foundation is not nearly as smart of an investment in a house with a great foundation and has been fully inspected. This Leafs team has great players on it, the talent is all there, but they've been a house of cards in the playoffs for at least three years and nothing this year has indicated that has changed.

I don't mind spending on rentals. But I'm absolutely price conscious about it, because the Leafs single biggest need is to get Marner sorted out mentally, so spending too much is a waste. And I do not for a second believe that there is anything special about this year that begs us to go all in. This is the year that Dubas has doubled down on Marner and I don't blame him one bit for that bet, but that doesn't mean I want him to go all in.

So you would like them to use this season as a 'prove it' year and if that happens go for it next year?
Management should be able to figure this stuff out without wasting a season to do it, IMO.

'All in' can have different meanings to different people. I doubt the cap will ever allow them to go 'all in'.

 

[LeafGrief]

So you would like them to use this season as a 'prove it' year and if that happens go for it next year?
Management should be able to figure this stuff out without wasting a season to do it, IMO.

'All in' can have different meanings to different people. I doubt the cap will ever allow them to go 'all in'.

I've been wanting them to have a "prove it" year for three years now, tbh. If we'd gone to, say, the third round last year I think I would be singing a different tune. And I do think it's important that I clarify that I have believed for the last three years that the team was already good enough to win a few rounds. There is too much talent on the team, Marner is too talented for them to struggle every year like this. I believe in this team, but I don't believe in them enough that I'd be willing to spend a first and our best prospects for a rental. I'm trying to learn from the history, because it's relevant history for this core.

If Dubas wants to tinker around the edges and spend 3rd round picks on Lybushkins and Nash's, that's fine by me. I'm normally fine letting our UFA's walk too. But the asking prices for Hertl, Forsberg, Giroux, and Miller are all hard no's. We're spending 40m on four forwards to carry the offense, if we have to supplement them with mercenaries every year then they just aren't good enough and it's time to end the experiment.

 

[ACC1224]

I've been wanting them to have a "prove it" year for three years now, tbh. If we'd gone to, say, the third round last year I think I would be singing a different tune. And I do think it's important that I clarify that I have believed for the last three years that the team was already good enough to win a few rounds. There is too much talent on the team, Marner is too talented for them to struggle every year like this. I believe in this team, but I don't believe in them enough that I'd be willing to spend a first and our best prospects for a rental. I'm trying to learn from the history, because it's relevant history for this core.

If Dubas wants to tinker around the edges and spend 3rd round picks on Lybushkins and Nash's, that's fine by me. But the asking prices for Hertl, Forsberg, Giroux, and Miller are all hard no's. We're spending 40m on four forwards to carry the offense, if we have to supplement them with mercenaries every year then they just aren't good enough and it's time to end the experiment.

Fair enough, not sure I necessarily agree but I see your point.
I do think a top 4 D (preferably with term ) is a must. I could live without the top forward rental.
I don't believe Matthews/Marner will be an issue this playoffs, Tavares/Nylander is the bigger concern.

 

[Nylanderthal]

yes exactly that. Mentioned this before, you don’t just sit on assets. None of the prospects we have are going to be the difference in us winning a cup and if they are they are at least 3-4 years away. We are in win now mode, not stay mediocre mode. We need upgrades pronto. They should be willing to trade anything and anyone if the right hockey deal is available for us to make a serious upgrade

Ah yes, 6th overall 2/3 way through the season having just played like dogshit this past week. So mediocre.

 

[SwedishFire]

If there is an area where Dubas is best in the class, its burning capspace on already addressed positions. So well see in what creative way he burn it this time.

 

[LeafGrief]

Fair enough, not sure I necessarily agree but I see your point.
I do think a top 4 D (preferably with term ) is a must. I could live without the top forward rental.
I don't believe Matthews/Marner will be an issue this playoffs, Tavares/Nylander is the bigger concern.

With the state of the D right now, I'm definitely much more open to a defensive rental for this year. While I do want them to prove it, our 2nd pairing has completely imploded and that's not a strong recipe for success. Gotta patch that hole somehow. I don't want Dubas to spend the big bucks to fill that hole temporarily, but there'd be a decent chance of re-signing whoever we pick up and that would make it worth it.

I choose to focus on Marner simply because he's been the most notable the last two playoffs, in the starkest contrast to the regular season success. I'm not worried about Matthews at all. JT isn't the player he was when he first got here, but we're still rock solid up the middle. Nylander was excellent last year, and I'm not willing to worry about guys during mid season slumps.

 

[ACC1224]

With the state of the D right now, I'm definitely much more open to a defensive rental for this year. While I do want them to prove it, our 2nd pairing has completely imploded and that's not a strong recipe for success. Gotta patch that hole somehow. I don't want Dubas to spend the big bucks to fill that hole temporarily, but there'd be a decent chance of re-signing whoever we pick up and that would make it worth it.

I choose to focus on Marner simply because he's been the most notable the last two playoffs, in the starkest contrast to the regular season success. I'm not worried about Matthews at all. JT isn't the player he was when he first got here, but we're still rock solid up the middle. Nylander was excellent last year, and I'm not willing to worry about guys during mid season slumps.

I think Nylander was more the anomaly, hopefully I'm completely wrong on that.
One thing I do know is how fantastic it will be for the team can go on a bit of a run and we never have to discuss the playoff failings daily anymore?

 

[francis246]

View attachment 510453
Ah yes, 6th overall 2/3 way through the season having just played like dogshit this past week. So mediocre.

You and I both know what I mean, mediocre in terms of them not being able to advance past the first round. It’s clear they need to add another player or two to fully round out the squad for the playoffs. No one is talking about or questioning their ability to win games in the regular season.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't mind spending on rentals. But I'm absolutely price conscious about it, because the Leafs single biggest need is to get Marner sorted out mentally, so spending too much is a waste. And I do not for a second believe that there is anything special about this year that begs us to go all in. This is the year that Dubas has doubled down on Marner and I don't blame him one bit for that bet, but that doesn't mean I support putting all of our assets into this playoff run.

You mentioned Marner and I agree. I want to bring up an issue that is IMO even bigger - goaltending.

I we recap what happened last year, right around this time of year I was advising against rentals and one big reason was that goaltending is crucial, if you don't have that then you have no hope and our goaltending was s huge question mark. My point was that when the most important position on your team is a big question mark, that is not the time to spend futures on the present. Andersen sucked all year and Campbell was unproven, not a good situation. So what did we do? We invested a ton of futures in rentals, not just a 1st for Foligno but other picks went out the door as well and what happened? Well IMO plenty of blame to go around but the main scapegoat seems to be Campbell, too many softies given up in the last three games and especially in the last game. In retrospect, spending all those assets on futures when our goaltending was such a big question mark was probably not a risk worth taking.

OK so where are we today? The way I see it, out goaltending is an even bigger question mark then it was at this time last year. They showed the numbers last night, we have the worst goaltending in the NHL since Dec 1. Not only that, in that same time period (almost 3 months now) we rank 18th overall in expected goals against so not only does our goaltending suck, but our team defence sucks as well.

With this in mind, It's beyond me how people would think that if we only add this player or that player, we're good to go and a cup run is in the cards.

I don't want to name names or single anyone out but below are excerpts from some posts ITT and I'd say I want some of these guys are smoking but TBH, I'd be afraid to smoke anything that strong.

"You will never get an opportunity like this again. Go for it"
"We are in win now mode, not stay mediocre mode. We need upgrades pronto."
"Stop living in the past. Each season is new, you can’t be afraid to make moves."
"You continue to swing big until you hit and it works out."
"it's probably worth putting as much resources as you can to give the team a chance to success "

Get a grip people.

 

[Menzinger]

I know that the "we have to go for it now" crowd won't like this, but 2 years from now we could definitely be in a much better position than we're in today. And that's one reason why I'd rather save our bullets for another day.

I think that's a reasonable position to take - I certainly don't want to spend every asset the team has at this tdl. That said, it's likely in the teams best interest to maximize competitiveness over each of the next three seasons. And if that means giving up a potential 3rd/2nd line player for the Leafs in 2025 so be it.

 

[LeafGrief]

You mentioned Marner and I agree. I want to bring up an issue that is IMO even bigger - goaltending.

I we recap what happened last year, right around this time of year I was advising against rentals and one big reason was that goaltending is crucial, if you don't have that then you have no hope and our goaltending was s huge question mark. My point was that when the most important position on your team is a big question mark, that is not the time to spend futures on the present. Andersen sucked all year and Campbell was unproven, not a good situation. So what did we do? We invested a ton of futures in rentals, not just a 1st for Foligno but other picks went out the door as well and what happened? Well IMO plenty of blame to go around but the main scapegoat seems to be Campbell, too many softies given up in the last three games and especially in the last game. In retrospect, spending all those assets on futures when our goaltending was such a big question mark was probably not a risk worth taking.

OK so where are we today? The way I see it, out goaltending is an even bigger question mark then it was at this time last year. They showed the numbers last night, we have the worst goaltending in the NHL since Dec 1. Not only that, in that same time period (almost 3 months now) we rank 18th overall in expected goals against so not only does our goaltending suck, but our team defence sucks as well.

With this in mind, It's beyond me how people would think that if we only add this player or that player, we're good to go and a cup run is in the cards.

I don't want to name names or single anyone out but below are excerpts from some posts ITT and I'd say I want some of these guys are smoking but TBH, I'd be afraid to smoke anything that strong.

"You will never get an opportunity like this again. Go for it"
"We are in win now mode, not stay mediocre mode. We need upgrades pronto."
"Stop living in the past. Each season is new, you can’t be afraid to make moves."
"You continue to swing big until you hit and it works out."
"it's probably worth putting as much resources as you can to give the team a chance to success "

Get a grip people.

Love the post, though I'm still vocal in my support for Campbell. He's been bad for a while, but this is his first real downturn in a Leafs uniform. Considering how well he's played the rest of the time, I'm inclined to stick with him and give him a chance to prove it's not a slump. And unfortunately, I don't know if goaltending is something that teams ever manage to address at the deadline. Backups and depth happen, but I cannot recall a team going on a deep run with a new goalie. For better or worse, I think what we have between the pipes now is what we will have in the playoffs. Personally, I maintain my optimism that Campbell is still the real deal.

But overall, the point remains and I think we're united in agreeing that this team has way too many question marks to go all in like Tampa did. The Coleman and Goodrow trades have made everybody rental happy, and while they were genius moves, they were for a first place team who had a long history of deep playoff runs. That ain't us.

Spend like a cautious contender, not a cocksure favourite.

 

[francis246]

You mentioned Marner and I agree. I want to bring up an issue that is IMO even bigger - goaltending.

I we recap what happened last year, right around this time of year I was advising against rentals and one big reason was that goaltending is crucial, if you don't have that then you have no hope and our goaltending was s huge question mark. My point was that when the most important position on your team is a big question mark, that is not the time to spend futures on the present. Andersen sucked all year and Campbell was unproven, not a good situation. So what did we do? We invested a ton of futures in rentals, not just a 1st for Foligno but other picks went out the door as well and what happened? Well IMO plenty of blame to go around but the main scapegoat seems to be Campbell, too many softies given up in the last three games and especially in the last game. In retrospect, spending all those assets on futures when our goaltending was such a big question mark was probably not a risk worth taking.

OK so where are we today? The way I see it, out goaltending is an even bigger question mark then it was at this time last year. They showed the numbers last night, we have the worst goaltending in the NHL since Dec 1. Not only that, in that same time period (almost 3 months now) we rank 18th overall in expected goals against so not only does our goaltending suck, but our team defence sucks as well.

With this in mind, It's beyond me how people would think that if we only add this player or that player, we're good to go and a cup run is in the cards.

I don't want to name names or single anyone out but below are excerpts from some posts ITT and I'd say I want some of these guys are smoking but TBH, I'd be afraid to smoke anything that strong.

"You will never get an opportunity like this again. Go for it"
"We are in win now mode, not stay mediocre mode. We need upgrades pronto."
"Stop living in the past. Each season is new, you can’t be afraid to make moves."
"You continue to swing big until you hit and it works out."
"it's probably worth putting as much resources as you can to give the team a chance to success "

Get a grip people.

I'm not a puss, you can tag me. Yes I said those things, I fully believe in this group and I do believe our window is closing. I'm not willing to bet on any prospects in the system. We'll be lucky if even 2 become regular NHLers for us for an extended period of time. This is probably the best roster we've had in recent years with our young guys becoming fully complete players. Matthews is playing out of his mind, so yes to me this is the year. We do need upgrades, Amirov may never play hockey again (knocking on wood), Knies is good but it's not a sure bet, Niemela who knows how he'll be against physical north american players. Sandin and Liljegren both have question marks. We have Bunting on a cheap contract for one more year after this, we will loose Mikeyev probably this year, JT isn't getting any younger, Kase is unsigned beyond this year, Simmonds and Spezza are only getting older. Should I go on? This roster will look completely different next year, let alone 3 years, who knows if our forward group is as good as this year ever again.

Additionally as much as 3 years down the road is Dubas' issue, it realistically isn't his issue. He may not even be here next year or the year after. His main issue and his main focus is on this season and winning a cup with this current group. So he should be using every resource possible to see that come to fruition. That being said you need to get impact players, you don't just get fringe rental players. Target guys that can actually be difference makers so the cost is worth it. If they have term even better.

A lot of you continue to live and bring up the past failures. Each year is a new year, last year has nothing to do with this year. It's a clean slate. And I can't wait for you to eat a sack of shit + your words when we do make it past the first round this year with whatever upgrades we do end up getting.

You keep making the assumption that we will be better in 2+ years, there's about an equal chance that we are worse in 2 years than we are today.

 

[francis246]

Love the post, though I'm still vocal in my support for Campbell. He's been bad for a while, but this is his first real downturn in a Leafs uniform. Considering how well he's played the rest of the time, I'm inclined to stick with him and give him a chance to prove it's not a slump. And unfortunately, I don't know if goaltending is something that teams ever manage to address at the deadline. Backups and depth happen, but I cannot recall a team going on a deep run with a new goalie. For better or worse, I think what we have between the pipes now is what we will have in the playoffs. Personally, I maintain my optimism that Campbell is still the real deal.

But overall, the point remains and I think we're united in agreeing that this team has way too many question marks to go all in like Tampa did. The Coleman and Goodrow trades have made everybody rental happy, and while they were genius moves, they were for a first place team who had a long history of deep playoff runs. That ain't us.

Spend like a cautious contender, not a cocksure favourite.

LMAO Tampa lost in an early exit to Columbus the year before they made they made those moves.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is probably the best roster we've had in recent years with our young guys becoming fully complete players.

...

A lot of you continue to live and bring up the past failures. Each year is a new year, last year has nothing to do with this year. It's a clean slate. And I can't wait for you to eat a sack of shit + your words when we do make it past the first round this year with whatever upgrades we do end up getting.

If this is our best roster in recent years, why are we 18th in the NHL in expected goals against since Dec 1? That's almost 3 months so it's not just a blip, has any team ever won the cup with a defence this bad.

I notice you completely ignored the fact that over that same time span, our goaltending has been the worst in the entire league. Do I take this to mean that you don't think goaltending is important?

As far as me eating whatever if we get past the first round goes, sure I'd like to win a round but I wouldn't spend futures to do that. The goal is to win the cup and if spend futures and end up winning one round, it just makes winning the cup with this core more unlikely as we have less assets to help us accomplish that goal.

Spend valuable futures and win just one round = failure. The smart thing to do is to pick your spots and the way we've been playing for almost 3 months now ... we'll let's call a spade a spade, we've sucked.

 

[francis246]

If this is our best roster in recent years, why are we 18th in the NHL in expected goals against since Dec 1? That's almost 3 months so it's not just a blip, has any team ever won the cup with a defence this bad.

I notice you completely ignored the fact that over that same time span, our goaltending has been the worst in the entire league. Do I take this to mean that you don't think goaltending is important?

As far as me eating whatever if we get past the first round goes, sure I'd like to win a round but I wouldn't spend futures to do that. The goal is to win the cup and if spend futures and end up winning one round, it just makes winning the cup with this core more unlikely as we have less assets to help us accomplish that goal.

Spend valuable futures and win just one round = failure. The smart thing to do is to pick your spots and the way we've been playing for almost 3 months now ... we'll let's call a spade a spade, we've sucked.

no I take it as you go through Ebs and flows through a season and I have confidence in the goaltending to get back on track.

& I think this team will win more than a round.

a lot of y’all are such hypocrites. You don’t want them to spend assets to be able to hit the goal of winning a round or more yet you continuously turn around and use that same lack of success against them for never hitting that point. Just straight up hypocrisy.

So if not now, then when?

 

[Gary Nylund]

no I take it as you go through Ebs and flows through a season and I have confidence in the goaltending to get back on track.

So almost 3 months of suckage can be shrugged off, just like that. Got it. Cup run, here we come!

 

[ShaneFalco]

I'm not a puss, you can tag me. Yes I said those things, I fully believe in this group and I do believe our window is closing. I'm not willing to bet on any prospects in the system. We'll be lucky if even 2 become regular NHLers for us for an extended period of time. This is probably the best roster we've had in recent years with our young guys becoming fully complete players. Matthews is playing out of his mind, so yes to me this is the year. We do need upgrades, Amirov may never play hockey again (knocking on wood), Knies is good but it's not a sure bet, Niemela who knows how he'll be against physical north american players. Sandin and Liljegren both have question marks. We have Bunting on a cheap contract for one more year after this, we will loose Mikeyev probably this year, JT isn't getting any younger, Kase is unsigned beyond this year, Simmonds and Spezza are only getting older. Should I go on? This roster will look completely different next year, let alone 3 years, who knows if our forward group is as good as this year ever again.

Additionally as much as 3 years down the road is Dubas' issue, it realistically isn't his issue. He may not even be here next year or the year after. His main issue and his main focus is on this season and winning a cup with this current group. So he should be using every resource possible to see that come to fruition. That being said you need to get impact players, you don't just get fringe rental players. Target guys that can actually be difference makers so the cost is worth it. If they have term even better.

A lot of you continue to live and bring up the past failures. Each year is a new year, last year has nothing to do with this year. It's a clean slate. And I can't wait for you to eat a sack of shit + your words when we do make it past the first round this year with whatever upgrades we do end up getting.

You keep making the assumption that we will be better in 2+ years, there's about an equal chance that we are worse in 2 years than we are today.

So to sum up:

Our window is closing, but let's sell everything off in the hope it makes us better. Prospects probably won't pan out, but trade pieces will work out
But we also have the best roster we've had - but we have question marks on D and in other areas
Some players will probably leave
It's not Dubas's problem if he guts our prospects to go for it
And we'd need impact players in the trade market (despite the young guys becoming "fully complete" and best roster in recent memory)
Past failures - just live in the present (who cares if the same issues remain)
We could be worse in 2 years

 

[nuck]

I think that's a reasonable position to take - I certainly don't want to spend every asset the team has at this tdl. That said, it's likely in the teams best interest to maximize competitiveness over each of the next three seasons. And if that means giving up a potential 3rd/2nd line player for the Leafs in 2025 so be it.

The Muzzin injury means they temporarily gain money for this season but will not have any of that cap space next year so I think Muzz = rental. Not so bad as last year because the $5M allows them to make a deal involving little or no retention but requires they have him back healthy for the playoffs to really reap a benefit, otherwise you are just banking on the new guy being measurably better than a healthy Muzzin.. If you are talking about a cost controlled player to really upgrade for the next few years you would need to clear longer term cap space and pay handsomely for the new add plus the Muzzin replacement.

I don't think they can afford both a top 4 D upgrade and a cost friendly forward who moves the needle. One or the other then, with the second player added being someone who improves their current situation somewhat without a heavy cost. See my Braun and Giroux comment (not expecting it) or Gio plus a lesser forward with some term maybe. These aren't proposals, just how I see the club possibly allocating the assets for a spend.

 

[ShaneFalco]

a lot of y’all are such hypocrites. You don’t want them to spend assets to be able to hit the goal of winning a round or more yet you continuously turn around and use that same lack of success against them for never hitting that point. Just straight up hypocrisy.

So they can't win a round, have holes and big question marks, but let's trade pretty much anyone to try and win a round - if it fails again, it's a new year next year!

 

[francis246]

So to sum up:

Our window is closing, but let's sell everything off in the hope it makes us better. Prospects probably won't pan out, but trade pieces always work out
But we also have the best roster we've had - but we have question marks on D and in other areas
Some players will probably leave
It's not Dubas's problem if he guts our prospects to go for it
And we'd need impact players in the trade market (despite the young guys becoming "fully complete" and best roster in recent memory)
Past failures - just live in the present (who cares if the same issues remain)
We could be worse in 2 years

ive never said sell everything, I said if the right trade presents itself To make a deal that upgrades the team Dubas should go for it. Obviously Dubas and the management staff aren’t going to trade every prospect in one deal. No one is advocating for that. But there shouldn’t be anyone who’s untouchable is what I’m saying. There shouldn’t be an asset in terms of prospects that we covet more than a player who gives us a realistic chance to win the cup. That would be a player with term and can make an impact. JT Miller, Chychrun, Konecny would fall into that.

the leafs right now have a very good team this year but unless the cap goes up. We will have to change our parts a lot starting next year.

we don’t know which of our prospects will join the team dm have impact and which will not.

 

[nsleaf]

So they can't win a round, have holes and big question marks, but let's trade pretty much anyone to try and win a round - if it fails again, it's a new year next year!

All you do is cruise around and crap on positive opinions.

 

[ShaneFalco]

All you do is cruise around and crap on positive opinions.

Yup that's me

 

[Maplebeasts]

Jesus that is the worst take I've seen on a players current skills since tie Domi said he was more of a shooter than a fighter...

It's the truth though and most stats out there support it. Maybe your eye test sucks?