Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[WolfHouse]

@Buffdog is on a roll...

So Beaulieu didnt use a spot that could have been available for Kova because he's a left shot... but Copa made Kova redundant because hes a left shot that plays the right side even though theres no real evidence. And Kova would never ever have played left side if asked...

Samberg was the chosen one because of his pedigree and he's younger - except Samberg only got his shot when Stan got hurt - and that happened to be at age 24... we gave up on Kova at age 25 - that same season he played 17+ mins on a 'third pairing' while our replacement played 12-13 mins a game... our replacements got a combined 5 pts while he got 15

So EVEN to just judge these players on replacement value - or how much rest/minutes they can offer to our best player - the Kova v Capo/Stan swap was bad, the Kova/Beaulieu swap was worse

The entire point is that this wasn't a basic swap out/in - we downgraded for seemingly no reason. Thats a fair question to ask.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I’ve always felt the Jets organization is way too fixated on old school dman archetypes. Gotta have their puck movers balanced with stay at home dmen, the PP specialist mixed with the crease clearer, need a shot blocker, a big and rangy guy, etc.

I’m open to debate on this, but IMO it explains a great deal of their personnel decisions.

I wouldn’t even say this is a flat out wrong approach, but the game is evolving. Basically every NHL team has scrapped the “top 6 is for scorers, bottom 6 for grinders” mold. In the same vein, you see more and more teams building their bluelines around guys who can tilt possession favourably as opposed to guys who fill a defined role on D.

 

[AtomicJets]

I don't think the Jets ever "gave up" on Kovacevic.... They thought they could sneak him through waivers and hold onto him. They gambled and lost.

 

[Jet]

I’ve always felt the Jets organization is way too fixated on old school dman archetypes. Gotta have their puck movers balanced with stay at home dmen, the PP specialist mixed with the crease clearer, need a shot blocker, a big and rangy guy, etc.

I’m open to debate on this, but IMO it explains a great deal of their personnel decisions.

I wouldn’t even say this is a flat out wrong approach, but the game is evolving. Basically every NHL team has scrapped the “top 6 is for scorers, bottom 6 for grinders” mold. In the same vein, you see more and more teams building their bluelines around guys who can tilt possession favourably as opposed to guys who fill a defined role on D.

I'm open to new ways of thinking - but I do believe a D pair is strongest when each guy is really good at aspects of the game that the other guy struggles with. It's not the only thing that makes a pair good. Guys who like each other and communicate well can really make up for some shortcomings in their games.

I've always enjoyed being paired with an offensive minded guy. I can take care of our end, I'm strong at breaking up cycles and rushes, and making quick exit decisions.

I'm pretty weak at the offensive blueline and probably defer too much to throwing it down the wall as opposed to moving along the blueline to get a shot away or open up a seam pass. Having a partner who likes to carry the mail and is strong at the point is really complimentary to my game.

 

[Buffdog]

@Buffdog is on a roll...

So Beaulieu didnt use a spot that could have been available for Kova because he's a left shot... but Copa made Kova redundant because hes a left shot that plays the right side even though theres no real evidence. And Kova would never ever have played left side if asked...

Samberg was the chosen one because of his pedigree and he's younger - except Samberg only got his shot when Stan got hurt - and that happened to be at age 24... we gave up on Kova at age 25 - that same season he played 17+ mins on a 'third pairing' while our replacement played 12-13 mins a game... our replacements got a combined 5 pts while he got 15

So EVEN to just judge these players on replacement value - or how much rest/minutes they can offer to our best player - the Kova v Capo/Stan swap was bad, the Kova/Beaulieu swap was worse

The entire point is that this wasn't a basic swap out/in - we downgraded for seemingly no reason. Thats a fair question to ask.

The org had a decision to make in the summer of 2021. They had just come off a season there was a parade of below replacement Dmen passing through the line up. TDL 2021 is when they acquired Demelo. Up until that point, their top 2 RHD were Pionk and Poolman

At that point in his career (summer 2021), Kovacevic had zero NHL experience and only 75 games of AHL experience. Regardless of how well he's turned out as a player today, at that time, he wasn't ready for full time NHL duties. So the Jets acquired Schmidt to play the right side. They initially had him on tbr top pairing and Demelo on the 3rd

Thr decisions you're talking about were the next season (2022/23). To start the season, they had

JoMo Demelo
Dillon Pionk
Samberg Schmidt

So... they had Stanley, Capobianco, Heinola, and Kovacevic as extras. Heinola didn't require waivers, so he goes down

Of those 6 D that I listed as starting the season, the only real question mark was Samberg. Up until that point, he'd played 15 NHL games total. The reason they kept Staney and Capobianco over Kovacevic was Stanley had 95 games of NHL experience vs 5 for Kovacevic and Capobianco could play both sides and had 59 games experience

Had they kept Kova, they had nobody to slot in on the left side if Samberg struggled. Plus, he wouldn't have played with the right side set in stone. In fact, that right side only lost 17 man games to injury that year.

I realize that Kova turned out better than everyone expected and that it would have been great to have still had him around somehow, but at the time, waiving him was the right call with the information they had

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Best thing for Kovy was to get picked up and develop his game with a tanking Canadiens team.
Jets weren’t willing to give him NHL ice time to the right side over all those players we had
We had good D corp To much growing pains with Stanley and Samberg already in the lineup.
Can’t have to many rookies in D. Plus Heinola was going be called up before Kovy.
Worked out for Kovy and Crisholm to be picked up by another team and develop their NHL game It sucks we lost them cause I followed their progress on the Moose
I think having two NHL ready D men in Schmidt and Dillion was the right call. I think we didn’t need Capo
Jets realize their mistake and I see Stanley and Heinola getting more ice time to show what they have
Though you could argue Stanley has been given enough rope
Give them ice time and Develop our rookies as 3rd line pair
We can always pick up an another Couglan , Fleury , Capo or a Kovy in the off-season.

 

[WolfHouse]

The org had a decision to make in the summer of 2021. They had just come off a season there was a parade of below replacement Dmen passing through the line up. TDL 2021 is when they acquired Demelo. Up until that point, their top 2 RHD were Pionk and Poolman

At that point in his career (summer 2021), Kovacevic had zero NHL experience and only 75 games of AHL experience. Regardless of how well he's turned out as a player today, at that time, he wasn't ready for full time NHL duties. So the Jets acquired Schmidt to play the right side. They initially had him on tbr top pairing and Demelo on the 3rd

Thr decisions you're talking about were the next season (2022/23). To start the season, they had

JoMo Demelo
Dillon Pionk
Samberg Schmidt

So... they had Stanley, Capobianco, Heinola, and Kovacevic as extras. Heinola didn't require waivers, so he goes down

Of those 6 D that I listed as starting the season, the only real question mark was Samberg. Up until that point, he'd played 15 NHL games total. The reason they kept Staney and Capobianco over Kovacevic was Stanley had 95 games of NHL experience vs 5 for Kovacevic and Capobianco could play both sides and had 59 games experience

Had they kept Kova, they had nobody to slot in on the left side if Samberg struggled. Plus, he wouldn't have played with the right side set in stone. In fact, that right side only lost 17 man games to injury that year.

I realize that Kova turned out better than everyone expected and that it would have been great to have still had him around somehow, but at the time, waiving him was the right call with the information they had

Seems like a weird argument - I dont have the source that says Capo played on both side in Phoenix...? And both Stan and Heinola were LHD so thats depth right there.

If Capo was the plan for right side, that was not ideal at all. The mark against the Jets and it still is - is that we had lost size in our d core. The chances of Kova clearing were so low given the demand for RHD... just makes no sense - even at the time.

Then you add the fact that Nate Schmidt - while coming off a good season was known to have some injury issues and to be erratic - why ditch your only RHD prospect

Anyway, if I dig deeper, I'll find that Bones actually kept Kuhlman over Kova and thats likely too depressing for me

 

[10Ducky10]

Capo wasn't/isn't an NHL D man, plain and simple.

 

[DRW204]

Seems like a weird argument - I dont have the source that says Capo played on both side in Phoenix...? And both Stan and Heinola were LHD so thats depth right there.

If Capo was the plan for right side, that was not ideal at all. The mark against the Jets and it still is - is that we had lost size in our d core. The chances of Kova clearing were so low given the demand for RHD... just makes no sense - even at the time.

Then you add the fact that Nate Schmidt - while coming off a good season was known to have some injury issues and to be erratic - why ditch your only RHD prospect

Anyway, if I dig deeper, I'll find that Bones actually kept Kuhlman over Kova and thats likely too depressing for me

Yeah the Jets had so much LHD and a clear need for RHD.

I liked Schmidt but 6m/yr for a third pair dmen who you had to buy out of their contract is bonkers. Merely a year later after acquiring Schmidt, Kovacevicic was playing well in MTL for cheap. At the time I wanted to see more before being a beleiver, but now he's playing well in NJD so I think that validates him more.

No issue with the Jets getting help after the disaster d cores that Chevy put together, however, the investment in Schmidt and the level Kovacevic got to a from 2022 onward was a miss. It happens. The Jets prospects usually don't end up much, but I think this one was different from the norm.

IIRC the Jets wanted Schmidt the previous to 2021, may just have been that guy that they really wanted and perhaps overlooked what they had.

 

[Jet]

Yeah the Jets had so much LHD and a clear need for RHD.

I liked Schmidt but 6m/yr for a third pair dmen who you had to buy out of their contract is bonkers. Merely a year later after acquiring Schmidt, Kovacevicic was playing well in MTL for cheap. At the time I wanted to see more before being a beleiver, but now he's playing well in NJD so I think that validates him more.

No issue with the Jets getting help after the disaster d cores that Chevy put together, however, the investment in Schmidt and the level Kovacevic got to a from 2022 onward was a miss. It happens. The Jets prospects usually don't end up much, but I think this one was different from the norm.

IIRC the Jets wanted Schmidt the previous to 2021, may just have been that guy that they really wanted and perhaps overlooked what they had.

I think you can bemoan the loss of players who went on to better things (as few as there actually are from a Jets perspective), or you can look at it as a zero sum game. How many players has Chevy picked up for dirt cheap who have ended up being real performers for the team? Some of them we only got because we let some of these other players go.

I think all in all Chevy is ahead in the won lost column.

Every NHL team has players they gave up on or traded who went on to bigger and better things. often times the Jets have either gotten good mileage out of players and got out at the right time (Copp, Trouba), or they've let players go who haven't amounted to anything. The Kovacevics and Chisolms of the world are very few and far between (and, afaic, not huge losses anyways).

 

[DerekDevils30]

Found the Kovacevic discussion in this thread very interesting. I follow both the Devils and Jets very closely and feel he’d be a great add for the Jets should he get to UFA.

Kovy was thought to be brought in as the #7 with Nemec being 3RD behind Hamilton and Pesce. Injuries happened and Pesce and Luke Hughes were unavailable to start the season. Kovy was paired with Siegenthaler and from the get go they worked extremely well together. They were trusted in big defensive situations constantly early on as Keefe had to shelter a Casey-Nemec 3rd pair and they passed it with flying colours.

Pesce gets back in the lineup alongside Hughes on a pair. Up to that point Kovy had more than earned his spot and it was clear Casey and Nemec both could use development time in the AHL. Since then the Hughes-Pesce and Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairs have generally been trusted more as the top 2 pairs. There’s a love/hate with the Dillon-Hamilton pair as they are both riverboat gamblers at times.

Kovy up to this point of the season has proven to be a capable top 4 RHD who can be used in shutdown minutes. His underlying numbers were very good on a bad Montreal team and he’s gotten the chance to establish himself as something more than a #6/#7. So far so good in that regard. Now doing so early in the season is one thing. How he holds up down the stretch into the playoffs is another thing. So still lots of story to be written. With that being said, GM’s will be lining up in the off-season. Big, physical RHD with some mobility don’t grow on trees and are coveted. Devils fans hope he’s kept but some juggling would have to be done as I expect he will get a 4-5 year deal worth a decent amount of coin. If he plays like he has been he will be worth it.

I truly think a Samberg-Kovacevic pair could operate on a similar defensive level to what Siegenthaler and him have provided so far this season. I want the Devils to keep the guy but if they can’t I’d love for the Jets to scoop him up. Make it come full circle.

 

[Jet]

Found the Kovacevic discussion in this thread very interesting. I follow both the Devils and Jets very closely and feel he’d be a great add for the Jets should he get to UFA.

Kovy was thought to be brought in as the #7 with Nemec being 3RD behind Hamilton and Pesce. Injuries happened and Pesce and Luke Hughes were unavailable to start the season. Kovy was paired with Siegenthaler and from the get go they worked extremely well together. They were trusted in big defensive situations constantly early on as Keefe had to shelter a Casey-Nemec 3rd pair and they passed it with flying colours.

Pesce gets back in the lineup alongside Hughes on a pair. Up to that point Kovy had more than earned his spot and it was clear Casey and Nemec both could use development time in the AHL. Since then the Hughes-Pesce and Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairs have generally been trusted more as the top 2 pairs. There’s a love/hate with the Dillon-Hamilton pair as they are both riverboat gamblers at times.

Kovy up to this point of the season has proven to be a capable top 4 RHD who can be used in shutdown minutes. His underlying numbers were very good on a bad Montreal team and he’s gotten the chance to establish himself as something more than a #6/#7. So far so good in that regard. Now doing so early in the season is one thing. How he holds up down the stretch into the playoffs is another thing. So still lots of story to be written. With that being said, GM’s will be lining up in the off-season. Big, physical RHD with some mobility don’t grow on trees and are coveted. Devils fans hope he’s kept but some juggling would have to be done as I expect he will get a 4-5 year deal worth a decent amount of coin. If he plays like he has been he will be worth it.

I truly think a Samberg-Kovacevic pair could operate on a similar defensive level to what Siegenthaler and him have provided so far this season. I want the Devils to keep the guy but if they can’t I’d love for the Jets to scoop him up. Make it come full circle.

View attachment 944707

Interesting perspective - thanks! I haven't watched Kova very much since he left the Jets.

 

[Flair Hay]

Yeah the Jets had so much LHD and a clear need for RHD.

I liked Schmidt but 6m/yr for a third pair dmen who you had to buy out of their contract is bonkers. Merely a year later after acquiring Schmidt, Kovacevicic was playing well in MTL for cheap. At the time I wanted to see more before being a beleiver, but now he's playing well in NJD so I think that validates him more.

No issue with the Jets getting help after the disaster d cores that Chevy put together, however, the investment in Schmidt and the level Kovacevic got to a from 2022 onward was a miss. It happens. The Jets prospects usually don't end up much, but I think this one was different from the norm.

IIRC the Jets wanted Schmidt the previous to 2021, may just have been that guy that they really wanted and perhaps overlooked what they had.

For sure. It's a miss and things happen.

I feel like most of the discussion came from disagreement over what Kovacevic has actually become. Took some time for folks to even come around to the validity of the thought of him being a top 4 defensive stud. Some still may not be there.

Now we have beaten down the discourse on if it was a mistake at the time, or if we just got unlucky. And things are moving towards what would it cost to bring him back.

After watching last night against Vegas again, I'm more sure than ever this dude would help our defense (the title of this thread haha)

As derekdevils30 said, him and Samberg could be a top shutdown pair in the league. Or heck, maybe he could even be the partner we are looking for with Morrissey.

 

[Gm0ney]

Found the Kovacevic discussion in this thread very interesting. I follow both the Devils and Jets very closely and feel he’d be a great add for the Jets should he get to UFA.

Kovy was thought to be brought in as the #7 with Nemec being 3RD behind Hamilton and Pesce. Injuries happened and Pesce and Luke Hughes were unavailable to start the season. Kovy was paired with Siegenthaler and from the get go they worked extremely well together. They were trusted in big defensive situations constantly early on as Keefe had to shelter a Casey-Nemec 3rd pair and they passed it with flying colours.

Pesce gets back in the lineup alongside Hughes on a pair. Up to that point Kovy had more than earned his spot and it was clear Casey and Nemec both could use development time in the AHL. Since then the Hughes-Pesce and Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairs have generally been trusted more as the top 2 pairs. There’s a love/hate with the Dillon-Hamilton pair as they are both riverboat gamblers at times.

Kovy up to this point of the season has proven to be a capable top 4 RHD who can be used in shutdown minutes. His underlying numbers were very good on a bad Montreal team and he’s gotten the chance to establish himself as something more than a #6/#7. So far so good in that regard. Now doing so early in the season is one thing. How he holds up down the stretch into the playoffs is another thing. So still lots of story to be written. With that being said, GM’s will be lining up in the off-season. Big, physical RHD with some mobility don’t grow on trees and are coveted. Devils fans hope he’s kept but some juggling would have to be done as I expect he will get a 4-5 year deal worth a decent amount of coin. If he plays like he has been he will be worth it.

I truly think a Samberg-Kovacevic pair could operate on a similar defensive level to what Siegenthaler and him have provided so far this season. I want the Devils to keep the guy but if they can’t I’d love for the Jets to scoop him up. Make it come full circle.

View attachment 944707

Dump Dillon and give that money to Kovacevic...problem solved!

 

[DRW204]

For sure. It's a miss and things happen.

I feel like most of the discussion came from disagreement over what Kovacevic has actually become. Took some time for folks to even come around to the validity of the thought of him being a top 4 defensive stud. Some still may not be there.

Now we have beaten down the discourse on if it was a mistake at the time, or if we just got unlucky. And things are moving towards what would it cost to bring him back.

After watching last night against Vegas again, I'm more sure than ever this dude would help our defense (the title of this thread haha)

As derekdevils30 said, him and Samberg could be a top shutdown pair in the league. Or heck, maybe he could even be the partner we are looking for with Morrissey.

I didn't watch a lick of his time in MTL but his stats generally rated well. He has further played well in NJD with more responsibilities. I think the latter validates his MTL levels a bit as he just wasnt a flash in the pan at this point.

IMO this is where analytics and stats can help unearth potential low cost gems. IE: Marino, or Sigenthaler, Dunn or Demelo (prior to this year).

Anyway, I'm not motivated to get into a huge back and forth on this. I think the Jets should've known his potential better than anyone given he was here for 5+ years. Also, given Schmidt was essentially the third pair RD guy for 6M+Kovacevics level play immediately after leaving the Jets probably would've been better in giving him shot (def less costly in $ and draft picks, with higher upside). But this is opposite of guys like Petan, niku or Dano.

 

[Jet]

I didn't watch a lick of his time in MTL but his stats generally rated well. He has further played well in NJD with more responsibilities. I think the latter validates his MTL levels a bit as he just wasnt a flash in the pan at this point.

IMO this is where analytics and stats can help unearth potential low cost gems. IE: Marino, or Sigenthaler, Dunn or Demelo (prior to this year).

Anyway, I'm not motivated to get into a huge back and forth on this. I think the Jets should've known his potential better than anyone given he was here for 5+ years. Also, given Schmidt was essentially the third pair RD guy for 6M+Kovacevics level play immediately after leaving the Jets probably would've been better in giving him shot (def less costly in $ and draft picks, with higher upside). But this is opposite of guys like Petan, niku or Dano.

Here's the question - why did MTL think him expendable?

 

[DRW204]

Here's the question - why did MTL think him expendable?

Who knows. Has mtl really been the epitome of a smart team. You can play this sort of game for many good players who made their names elsewhere. The current defending Champs were filled with those kind of players.

Maybe he didn't want to play on a bottom feeder either. Not sure. MTL may thought he was expendable, but a good team wanted and traded +signed him too.

 

[Flair Hay]

Here's the question - why did MTL think him expendable?

I mean there was a time down the stretch last year Bowness scratched Samberg for Stanley. Sometimes to stats savvy folks are right. Sometimes wrong. Just like the coaches and decision-makers. No one is perfect.

 

[bumblebeeman]

For sure. It's a miss and things happen.

I feel like most of the discussion came from disagreement over what Kovacevic has actually become. Took some time for folks to even come around to the validity of the thought of him being a top 4 defensive stud. Some still may not be there.

Now we have beaten down the discourse on if it was a mistake at the time, or if we just got unlucky. And things are moving towards what would it cost to bring him back.

After watching last night against Vegas again, I'm more sure than ever this dude would help our defense (the title of this thread haha)

As derekdevils30 said, him and Samberg could be a top shutdown pair in the league. Or heck, maybe he could even be the partner we are looking for with Morrissey.

He hasn't played in a top 4 until this season tho right? Even on a terrible Canadiens team. It will be interesting if he can keep it up.

 

[Flair Hay]

He hasn't played in a top 4 until this season tho right? Even on a terrible Canadiens team. It will be interesting if he can keep it up.

17:00 AVG TOI from 23 and 24 seasons (compared to Samberg at 15:20) so I'd say in between 3rd pair and full time 2nd pair.

 

[DRW204]

I mean there was a time down the stretch last year Bowness scratched Samberg for Stanley. Sometimes to stats savvy folks are right. Sometimes wrong. Just like the coaches and decision-makers. No one is perfect.

If mtl didn't want him and he was out of the league, I can buy the argument his stats are meaningless, not a good player etc.
But a good team traded for him. And its not like it's uncommon players move around lol. Might take an organization or few for them to make their name.

Looking at the cup winner: how many organizations were forsling, montour or carter v apart of Shappens.

 

[WolfHouse]

Yeah the Jets had so much LHD and a clear need for RHD.

I liked Schmidt but 6m/yr for a third pair dmen who you had to buy out of their contract is bonkers. Merely a year later after acquiring Schmidt, Kovacevicic was playing well in MTL for cheap. At the time I wanted to see more before being a beleiver, but now he's playing well in NJD so I think that validates him more.

No issue with the Jets getting help after the disaster d cores that Chevy put together, however, the investment in Schmidt and the level Kovacevic got to a from 2022 onward was a miss. It happens. The Jets prospects usually don't end up much, but I think this one was different from the norm.

IIRC the Jets wanted Schmidt the previous to 2021, may just have been that guy that they really wanted and perhaps overlooked what they had.

I think he had a Wheeler and a Stastny connection... if he was the Vegas Nate it would have been a great move - but that ship had sailed...

Would be interesting to see how much Samberg actually stabilized Schmidt from day one - I know Stan/Schmidt were a tire fire in terms of adv stats

 

[Flair Hay]

I think he had a Wheeler and a Stastny connection... if he was the Vegas Nate it would have been a great move - but that ship had sailed...

Would be interesting to see how much Samberg actually stabilized Schmidt from day one - I know Stan/Schmidt were a tire fire in terms of adv stats

The more pieces to the puzzle we get the more clear the picture becomes.

More and more over time, things are pointing to Samberg being one of the top 10 or 15 shut down defensemen in the NHL. And he is just starting his prime.

 

[Jet]

Who knows. Has mtl really been the epitome of a smart team. You can play this sort of game for many good players who made their names elsewhere. The current defending Champs were filled with those kind of players.

Maybe he didn't want to play on a bottom feeder either. Not sure. MTL may thought he was expendable, but a good team wanted and traded +signed him too.

I was more curious than anything

 

[Howard Chuck]

The more pieces to the puzzle we get the more clear the picture becomes.

More and more over time, things are pointing to Samberg being one of the top 10 or 15 shut down defensemen in the NHL. And he is just starting his prime.

We are very lucky to have him. Now he needs to get healthy!