Will Ovechkin pass McDavid in goals this season?

[toothlessgoon]

Will Ovechkin overtake McDavid to win another Richard trophy?

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[wetcoast]

Probably not at this point as he is 6 goals behind and has already played in one more game.

 

[Video Nasty]

No. Finishing even second at this stage of his career would be yet another accomplishment though. Everyone else in the top 15 is 8-16 years his junior.

 

[GlitchMarner]

I think he's too old at this point. Also, McDavid seems hellbent on leading the League in goals and is at his peak. I can see him finishing in the top three, though.

It's looking like Matthews probably won't win the Rocket this year, but he should get hot and make a push at some point.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Good poll IMO.

While this is by far McDavid's best goal scoring season, it's within the typical range for Ovie.

I think due to age and the current 6 goal advantage, McDavid has the edge. But Ovie is firmly the greatest and best goal scorer of all time, and he can do things that no other player in history could do in terms of goal scoring. So you certainly can't count him out.

 

[Regal]

I think Ovechkin can hit the low 50s, so it really depends on if McDavid falls off significantly or not but I think he has enough in the bank that he should do it even if he falls off some. I wouldn’t say passing McDavid would automatically give a rocket to Ovechkin though. Still lots of guys who could do it: Thompson, Pastrnak, Robertson and Rantanen aren’t far behind Ovechkin and I wouldn’t count out a big second half from Draisaitl either.

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

definitely he could, 6 goal difference could be gone in a matter of 5-10 games and there's more than half a season left. Robertson, Thompson, Rantanen & Pastrnak could also close the gap quickly.

 

[authentic]

I think he's too old at this point. Also, McDavid seems hellbent on leading the League in goals and is at his peak. I can see him finishing in the top three, though.

It's looking like Matthews probably won't win the Rocket this year, but he should get hot and make a push at some point.

He doesn't seem overly concerned with how many goals he's scoring this season, can't complain really as he's stepped his game up in every other area and his line has been the most dominant in the league for the past 20 games with Nylander and Bunting.

 

[McShogun99]

Odds would say probably not but when it comes to goal scoring you never bet against Ovi.

 

[Canovin]

I want OV to get close so McDavid will step it up another level

 

[MrOT]

I want McDavid to win the Rocket

 

[bobholly39]

Good poll IMO.

While this is by far McDavid's best goal scoring season, it's within the typical range for Ovie.

I think due to age and the current 6 goal advantage, McDavid has the edge. But Ovie is firmly the greatest and best goal scorer of all time, and he can do things that no other player in history could do in terms of goal scoring. So you certainly can't count him out.

1. Ovechkin is not the "best" goal-scorer of all-time. Greatest, sure
2. What is it that Ovechkin can do that no other player in history can do in terms of goal-scoring?
3. I voted yes - I think McDavid slows down, and Ovechkin ends up with ~50-55.

I still think Matthews makes a race out of it, and ends up #1. But, he is starting to run out of time.

 

[Randyne]

2. What is it that Ovechkin can do that no other player in history can do in terms of goal-scoring?

9 rockets
8 top1 gpg
12 50G adj. seasons

1. Ovechkin is not the "best" goal-scorer of all-time

Sure he is.

 

[bobholly39]

9 rockets
8 top1 gpg
12 50G adj. seasons


Sure he is.

Agreed on the first part. I read that post in terms of ability to score a goal, as in how he can score goals. Yeah, for accomplishments he's great.

I don't think he's the best goal-scorer ever. Lemieux was definitely better. He is the greatest though.

 

[AlanHUK]

I still think Matthews makes a race out of it, and ends up #1. But, he is starting to run out of time.

He'd have to increase his average goals per game over the last 3 years by .3 to do it, assuming McDavid keeps his average pace over the same time span

 

[bobholly39]

He'd have to increase his average goals per game over the last 3 years by .3 to do it, assuming McDavid keeps his average pace over the same time span

Which is definitely doable. He could score 10 goals in the next 3 games, and then he's 4 back with half season to go. He did score 50 in 50 last year.

The one reason I think Matthews does it is because every single season of his career his goals per game, and points per game has increased year over year. Even when he had slow starts, he found a way to bounce back and keep that streak alive, so I won't bet against him this year.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I do expect him to have a fantastic second half, and surpass 50 goals on the season. Whether that's enough for rocket remains to be seen

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

Which is definitely doable. He could score 10 goals in the next 3 games, and then he's 4 back with half season to go. He did score 50 in 50 last year.

The one reason I think Matthews does it is because every single season of his career his goals per game, and points per game has increased year over year. Even when he had slow starts, he found a way to bounce back and keep that streak alive, so I won't bet against him this year.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I do expect him to have a fantastic second half, and surpass 50 goals on the season. Whether that's enough for rocket remains to be seen

Usually he’s got it going by now though

 

[Midnight Judges]

1. Ovechkin is not the "best" goal-scorer of all-time. Greatest, sure

Ovechkin is easily the best.

He maintained the same adjusted GPG as Lemieux, except he kept that pace up through hundreds more games. His peak season was also better than Lemieux's best. Lemieux had neither the best raw season or the best adjusted season of his own era. Ovechkin has both.

Add in prime and longevity and no other player is in Ovie's tier. Not even close really.

2. What is it that Ovechkin can do that no other player in history can do in terms of goal-scoring?

He sustained the highest career adjusted GPG through far more games than anyone else.

It's funny, real life Lemieux scored at a 34 goal pace at age 37 and at an 18 goal pace for the two seasons after that, but you created a thread in the history forum where you pretended he could have had 45 goals in each of those seasons. Then you claimed that was conservative lol.

When you realized Ovechkin was going to set the record, you created that thread specifically to extrapolate for your favored Canadian players under best case scenarios, but NOT Ovechkin. But hey that's par for the course in the history forum.

He'd have to increase his average goals per game over the last 3 years by .3 to do it, assuming McDavid keeps his average pace over the same time span

If you look at McDavid's career to date, it seems unlikely that he'll sustain the pace from these past 38 games. He's way above his normal pace in terms of GPG.

 

[AlanHUK]

If you look at McDavid's career to date, it seems unlikely that he'll sustain the pace from these past 38 games. He's way above his normal pace in terms of GPG.

That's why I based it on the last 3 seasons instead of this season. McDavid's scoring has been .63, matthews at .74, so if McDavid drops down to that average Matthews would need to be at 1 gpg or .3 higher than his average in that timespan to overtake

 

[bobholly39]

Usually he’s got it going by now though

He's done pretty good since US thanksgiving.

16 games, points in 14 of them. Pace of ~117 points in 82 in that stretch, kind of what you'd expect of him. What he's missing is a hot streak or two, none yet this year.

I agree, it is getting late in the year. I'll still give him benefit of the doubt though that he goes on a big hot streak soon, but we'll see.

Ovechkin is easily the best.

He maintained the same adjusted GPG as Lemieux, except he kept that pace up through hundreds more games. His peak season was also better than Lemieux's best. Lemieux had neither the best raw season or the best adjusted season of his own era. Ovechkin has both.

Add in prime and longevity and no other player is in Ovie's tier. Not even close really.



He sustained the highest career adjusted GPG through far more games than anyone else.

You used hockey-reference's adjusted stats as a fact, which is a completely flawed premise.

Ovechkin's best goal-scoring season is 2008. His next best two are 2009 and 2010. With "adjusted stats", all of 2013, 2015, 2020, 2016 are better goal-scoring seasons for Ovechkin than 2010 - do you agree with that?

Sticking to adjusted stats - do you know Lemieux has the highest adjusted ppg in a season ever, in 1996? So if you use this as a fact, it would mean you think Lemieux's offensive peak was better than Gretzky's and that 1996 was his best season ever.

Or, you know, let's not pretend that hockey-reference's "adjusted stats" don't have a lot of flaws.

If you want to argue that Ovechkin should be called the "best" goal scorer because he sustained it longer than anyone else, go ahead.

I still say at their very best, Lemieux was better. I expect a lot of people agree with me on that one.

 

[DFC]

Probably not, but the fact that this is even a legit question should make people wary of the idea Ovy's going to slow down in the next couple of seasons. What a tank.

 

[Midnight Judges]

You used hockey-reference's adjusted stats as a fact, which is a completely flawed premise.

Ovechkin's best goal-scoring season is 2008. His next best two are 2009 and 2010. With "adjusted stats", all of 2013, 2015, 2020, 2016 are better goal-scoring seasons for Ovechkin than 2010 - do you agree with that?

Ovechkin missed 10 games in 2010. So yeah I don't see a problem here.

Sticking to adjusted stats - do you know Lemieux has the highest adjusted ppg in a season ever, in 1996? So if you use this as a fact, it would mean you think Lemieux's offensive peak was better than Gretzky's and that 1996 was his best season ever.

Or, you know, let's not pretend that hockey-reference's "adjusted stats" don't have a lot of flaws.

I don't see a glaring issue with that either.

Regardless, for context, Lemieux wasn't the best goal scorer of his own era in terms of raw peak season or adjusted peak season. Ovechkin has both.

Even if you don't favor the precision of adjusted stats (IMO there is a significant margin of error there, and if you realize that, then they're actually fine), you can at least see that they show Ovie and Lemieux in the same ballpark in terms of peak. But again, Ovie kept that pace up for far longer, which is much more than a tie breaker.

The case for Lemieux is based on one-way wishful thinking.

 

[abo9]

I dont think so - not because Ovechkin is old or anything, he can score 50 if he wants to, but because McDavid is just that good.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

My model gives McDavid about a 65% chance of finishing ahead, Ovechkin about a 30% chance of finishing ahead, and there's about a 5% chance of it being a tie.

In other words - this should be a good race til the end. The stats favour McDavid slightly - but betting against Ovechkin has never really been a good idea.

(This assumes both players play in all 82 games. Ovechkin has been one of the most freakishly healthy players in NHL history. It's close enough that either player missing more than a small handful of games will likely tilt the race).

 

[SoulDale]

I doubt Ovechkin will be able to overtake McDavid. It is clear that the Russian is still good, despite his age. But there is a limit to everything, he is too old to compete with Connor.