Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

[PlayTheHockey*]

Will Ovechkin catch Gretzky in career goals?

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[Nylanders]

He'd have to have 10 more 50 goal season, so no not a chance

 

[K Fleur]

Ovechkin has played 684 games and has 427 goals. Wayne scored his 600th! goal in game 718 of his career. Gretzky was also 27 years old when he scored his 600th goal, Ovechkin is currently 29...

So I say no, not a chance.

 

[Hoser]

Ovechkin had 422 goals in his career as of as of the end of last season. Gretzky had 894.

Ovechkin is 29 years old. Let's say for the sake of argument he plays until he's 40, or up to and including the 2025-26 season (Gretzky played until he was 37). That's another 12 seasons.

Ovechkin is 894 - 422 = 472 goals behind Gretzky. To catch him he would need to average 472/12 = 39.33 goals per season. Let's just round up and say to surpass Gretzky he'd have to average 40 goals per year for 12 more years, including this one.

Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No.

By comparison when Greztky was 29 years old he had 677 goals. In his first eight seasons he had 543. In Ovechkin's first eight seasons he has averaged 52.75 goals per season, which is very much commendable. The most Ovechkin has scored in a year is 65.

In Gretzky's first eight seasons he averaged 67.875.

It's quite possible that Ovechkin might do it. If Ovechkin keeps up his current 52.75 goals per season pace he'll pass Gretzky in 2022, but the last time Ovechkin had more than 52.75 goals in a season was five years ago; the average is being dragged down as time goes on...

 

[revolverjgw]

Very little chance. He has a very good shot at surpassing him as a goal scorer, but not matching his stats.

 

[ForsbergForever]

I think Ovy's two down years hurt his chances, as did the lockout, but then again scoring 894 career goals was probably out of reach regardless. I think barring a major injury he's probably good for 700, but then again if he plays to his max potential for the next decade and finds himself with 800 or so goals at the age of 40, I could see him hanging on as long as possible to make a run at the record.

 

[eddytheeagle20]

i can see him passing hull thats as high as i see him

 

[blogofmike]

Was hoping a mod would simply reply "No." and close the thread.

One day...

 

[Killion]

^^^ Not a chance, so lets get real here...

Belatedly..... "no"....

Closed.