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Why was Nikita Kucherov so overlooked?

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ViD

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Apr 21, 2007
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To this day it still baffles me how unnoticed this guy was and still is.

Even though he's top 10 in scoring and a part of the hottest line in the NHL, many people still have no idea who he is .

Apparently , that was the case during the draft too, or how else can you explain that a guy who was getting 2 PPG in QMJHL and who led the u18 WC with insane 21 points in 7 games gets selected in the late 2nd round.

He then continues to dominate the CHL, gets to the AHL, scores at a 1.5 PPG rate and after 15 games gets a call up and never goes back to bus rides again.

So what was it? The Russian factor ? The fact that he's somewhat undersized ?
 
Because his name ends in "ov".

It's pretty well known that had he not been Russian an the year wasn't 2011 he would have been a 1st rounder.
 
He looks like top5 of that draft. And you can't say he was nobody before the draft like about some other late picks who became good and great NHLers. Just crazy. Just imagine if the Pens picked him instead of Joe Morrow...
 
I was a huge fan of Kucherov coming into the draft.

No doubt I had him going rd one. He has all the talent to be top 10 and he has the production to back it up.

It was certainly a miscarriage of justice.
Have solace in the fact a lot better players have been drafted later than the second rd. I wouldn't fret and Tampa Bays gain is every other teams loss. Yzerman can place another feather in his hat.

Maybe its the Russian factor for him.

However scouts must have really hated his defense and I guess he needed to put on weight as well.
 
Part of it was he wasn't expected to come to NA for a few years at least. Also, other than the U-18, he developed in the MHL with no KHL time at that point, and the MHL isn't really viewed highly as a development league. The fact he came over the year after his draft may have been due to Yzerman's influence though.
 
He's on a hot line with a team with a lot of depth. Most teams try to play around stamkos, i think thats changing now.
 
It's his size and the Russian factor. I'm starting to think that teams should stop avoiding good players just because of their size. Tampa got Kucherov (5'11) on the second round, Palat (6'0) on 7th and Johnson (5'10) as undrafted player. Last draft they also got Brayden Point (5'10) on the 3rd round, who made the U20 Team Canada and is currently putting up 1,5 points per game as the captain of Moose Jaw Warriors in the WHL. The only reason he fell that low in the draft was his size.
I think that GMs are slightly overvaluing size. While important, it's clearly not compulsory to be big in today's NHL.
 
TB just flat-out doesn't pay any attention to "factors." Russian factor? Size factor? _____ factor? They shrug these off, take the most skilled prospect, and, shockingly enough, over time a few of them pan out.
 
DFC said:
TB just flat-out doesn't pay any attention to "factors." Russian factor? Size factor? _____ factor? They shrug these off, take the most skilled prospect, and, shockingly enough, over time a few of them pan out.
Click to expand...

They pay attention to factors, just not stereotype factors.
 
Stammer1234 said:
I think that GMs are slightly overvaluing size. While important, it's clearly not compulsory to be big in today's NHL.
Click to expand...

I recently analyzed every forward taken in the drafts between 2005 and 2010 and found some pretty revealing information regarding height and NHL success:

Of all the forwards drafted during this time who were 6' or taller, 45.6% played at least one game. 23.4% played 100 games or more. The total points per game of all these players is .47.

Of all the forwards drafted during this time who were 5'11" or smaller, 48.8% played at least one game. 24.2% played 100 games or more. The total PPG of all these players is .501.


There's a disgustingly pervasive myth that smaller forwards have higher "bust factor" than bigger players. What I found is that this common narrative is absolutely not grounded in reality.


I did not analyze defensemen, but I would hypothesize that size does play more of a prohibitive role. But as far as forwards are concerned, drafting small, skilled players like Gaudreau, Kucherov, etc. is no more risky than drafting bigger players. Teams have been handcuffing themselves for years by ignoring talented small players in favor of bigger guys who they believe are more likely to carve out NHL careers. It's just not true. Teams like TB with no size bias are laughing their way to highly successful picks that others seem to ignore.

Just another example of the NHL's frustratingly conservative and traditional approach to analysis rather than analyzing empirical data to determine where successful picks lie.


EDIT: This also brings me to another frustrating misconception. Often times a team will draft a highly talented, small forward, and you will hear the phrase "high risk, high reward". This is an asinine statement. For ALL players drafted, there exists risk of the player never playing in the NHL. But for some reason, the risk is only acknowledged for smaller players. Take a pick like Tyler Biggs. Most people said, "Oh, well even if he doesn't reach his potential, he can still be a bottom six guy because he has size". Wrong. That's BS, and now he's no longer a legit NHL prospect. Tell me how that pick was any less risky than he Panthers selecting Rocco Grimaldi a few picks later. It wasn't. There's a dinosaur mentality in the NHL, and the people running the show are petrified of breaking from conservative tradition, instead relying on empty rhetoric that gets perpetuated year after year.
 
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The real reason I know who he is is because he's been an absolute beast in the past few EA NHL titles. You ALWAYS want to get Nikita Kucherov on your team because he'll be 89 overall within a year or two.

Morgan Reilly is the defensive version of Nikita Kucherov, just in case you're wondering. They always become superstars.
 
I think the whole 'Russian Factor' is about to go the way of the dodo. Too many smart and skilled players are coming out of Russia these days. If these kids are willing to come to the CHL and grind it out, then I see them as no greater flight risk than a Swedish kid who chooses the same path.

I don't see the Kucherov's of the world falling very far on draft day anymore.
 
The size-dinosaurs in the NHL clubs needs to be phased out asap. Stuck in a no longer existing age.
 
KirkAlbuquerque said:
theres a thread about him and Tyler Johnson every other day. Not overlooked.
Click to expand...

Sure, people are aware of him now - and rightly so.

He was certainly overlooked during his draft year. I think that is a simple result of teams not being able to invest enough resources into scouting Russian players, particularly the MHL. It's a costly proposition and a logistical challenge to have a dedicated scouting staff there. Russian players also tend to scare NHL teams away which is unfortunate and moderately xenophobic, but still remains a harsh reality. Too bad because they have proven their mettle in the NHL time and time again.

Let's not forget that the draft is also a massive crapshoot and for every Kucherov there are hundreds of talented offensive/smaller players who end up in the SHL/Liiga/KHL/DHL/ECHL, etc...
 
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