Why are there no good goalies anymore?

[Melrose Munch]

This thread on the main board has me thinking, what happened to the goalie? I apologize if this has been asked before but since Roberto Luongo and Henrik Lundqvist retired there has been no standout goalie in the league. It's been more than 5 years now, and I don't think anyone other than Vasilevskiy will go to the hall. And before people say it, MAF is not a hall of fame caliber goalie. What happened? I would take Curtis Joseph over everyone playing today.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

My short answer: when everyone's a good goalie, then no one's a great goalie (because it's harder to distinguish yourself from the pack).

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

My short answer: when everyone's a good goalie, then no one's a great goalie (because it's harder to distinguish yourself from the pack).

That and it's entered a lull where the next crop of very good to great ones are still young. Hellebuyck is definitely in the great category already. Plus guys like Sorokin and Shesterkin just getting started on their resumes

 

[Hanji]

Nowadays it's exponentially more difficult to stand out from your peers considering technique and equipment are so advanced. These advancements seems to have affected goaltenders more than position players, imo.

 

[Eddie Munson]

My short answer: when everyone's a good goalie, then no one's a great goalie (because it's harder to distinguish yourself from the pack).

100% agreed. If you take the top goalies from the past 20ish years. The majority of the top Sav% guys with at least 100 games are currently playing. Do I think the majority of them are better than Lundqvist? No but there is far more parity the the days of Brodeur, Hasek, Joseph, Belfour.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I think that is a bit unfair. Scoring is certainly up so the save percentages won't look as gaudy of course, but active right now I'd say Vasilevskiy, Saros, Hellebuyck and Shesterkin have all proven themselves to be damn good Goaltenders, and are all under 30. Ullmark is having a terrific season, but since it's his first big one, I understand wanting to see a bit more before throwing him in as well. You can throw Sorokin also in the pile of "looks good, would just like to see a few more seasons of it". Given their relatively young ages, it's hard say how they might stack up on all time level when it's all said and done.

I think you can say there was a definitely a bit of a lull of Goalies born between 1988-1992, so maybe that's where the perception comes from as those guys should basically be the ones that have been running the past few years. Of players born in that five year span, it's guys like Bobrovsky (2 Vezinas, but very up and down) and Holtby (Vezina and a Cup, but not a lot of longevity) carrying the torch. And then you got.... Frederik Andersen, Semyon Varlamov, Martin Jones, Steve Mason, James Reimer, Jacob Markstrom, Jake Allen, Jonathan Bernier, Darcy Kuemper and Robin Lehner rounding out the Career Goaltender Wins list.

For a fairly large swath of time (5 consecutive birth years) that's rather unremarkable.

 

[MadLuke]

What happened? I would Curtis Joseph over everyone playing today.

Even over Shersterkin and Vasilevskly ?

At least with the modern light equipment, being a tall guy, like the Rinne-Vasilevskly seem a nice plus

 

[Melrose Munch]

Even over Shersterkin and Vasilevskly ?

At least with the modern light equipment, being a tall guy, like the Rinne-Vasilevskly seem a nice plus

Yeah.

I don't think either is better Joseph.

 

[Voight]

Vasi may only have "one" Vezina but hes been top 5 in voting for 5 straight years and is only 28.

 

[Crosby2010]

Part of it could be the position is far more structured than it has ever been. So it is sometimes hard to see who is actually better game in and game out than before. We could all see Hasek, Joseph, Richter, Fuhr, Roy, Brodeur, etc. make saves because that position was a lot less robotic in those days. How many goalies these days actually rely on their flexibility and speed/athletic ability? A lot less than before.

 

[BraveCanadian]

10 years ago "goalies are so much better now than the old timers lol they were trash"

now when goalies are getting lit up: "goalies are so good you can't even tell who is good"

Yeah.. ok..

How about instead: 1) the crackdown on equipment sizes (which hasn't gone far enough on the risers and cheaters etc. imo) and 2) the almost complete lack of physicality in the slot is letting teams stack two players there on offense (especially on the PP), and there is no threat when crossing the center of the ice in possession or with a pass opening up a lot more east-west play which is... causing more goals to be scored just like the last time teams started to go east west a lot more (late 70s and 80s).

 

[Hynh]

I think the position is just in flux. During the mini DPE (2010-2017) you had this problem it seemed like any goalie could steal any game (hello Ben Scrivens). Obviously that can't be because every goalie is elite so it must be because of the systems/equipment. Now things are flowing the other way and you're seeing goalies that came up in the previous world getting exposed. I think if things stabilize like this then in a few years it will be easier to identify the goalies that deserve recognition. The amount of scoring now should make it easier for the cream to rise, same as it does for scorers.

One thing that may derail that is changes in goalie deployment. In 2009-10 you had 6 goalies start 70 or more games, with Brodeur starting an obscene 76 games and making a relief appearance to get to 77 GP. The last time any goalie started 70 games was 2016-17, perhaps not coincidentally the last year of the mini DPE. Starting different goalies during back to backs used to be just a recommendation, now it is practically law.

Why does all of that matter? People often confuse the BEST goaltending with the MOST goaltending. You see this in many awards. Oscars for best make up and best original score often become awards for the most make up or the most score (that is original). This may be offset by improvements in public analysis of goaltending but that's still an uphill battle, especially since many modern stats would give no way to compare them to the greats of old that way basic ones like wins, GAA and sv% do.

 

[TANK200]

I think it’s partly because we’re in an era where NHL teams are primarily interested in drafting the biggest goalies and not the best. Top goalies in junior don’t get a look in the NHL unless they are at least 6’2”.

 

[Buffalowing1988]

I think it’s partly because we’re in an era where NHL teams are primarily interested in drafting the biggest goalies and not the best. Top goalies in junior don’t get a look in the NHL unless they are at least 6’2”.

Don't disagree but one of the top prospects in goaltending is Devon Levi. Hopefully he can change the mindset if he does well right off the bat in a year or two.

 

[JianYang]

Russia has entered chat

 

[mrhockey193195]

I'd love to hear @Doctor No 's take on this. My theory is with the continued evolution of equipment and everyone playing the butterfly, the variance in goaltending has become much less than in previous eras. Hence, the best goalies in the league rarely stand out drastically from the pack (or at least, rarely do so for more than a season) and league average goalies are winning cups/going deep into the playoffs with more frequency.

 

[alko]

 

[sr edler]

The position been going through a bit of a size-queen phase lately.

There are much of these various phases in pro sports where some people think they've unlocked various cheat codes to the universe. Always drags along a bunch of empty shells.

Saros (5'11") still seems do be doing quite fine, and one of the bigger prospects at the moment (Devon Levi) is only marginally taller (6'0"), he's said to have quite a waistline though.

 

[JianYang]

I'd love to hear @Doctor No 's take on this. My theory is with the continued evolution of equipment and everyone playing the butterfly, the variance in goaltending has become much less than in previous eras. Hence, the best goalies in the league rarely stand out drastically from the pack (or at least, rarely do so for more than a season) and league average goalies are winning cups/going deep into the playoffs with more frequency.

I've been banging that drum for years now.

The position has become such a science over the years. The generic goalie is much more refined compared to generations past that they have closed the gap with the elite ones.

Goals are going up, but that's a function of shrinking equipment, and a concerted crackdown on hooking and slashing at the hands.

 

[MessierII]

We were in kind of golden age of goaltending from about 2010 to 2017 or so. Goalie stats were through the roof like scoring stats in the 80’s. There’s just not a lot of standouts after the price/lundqvist generation. It’s more of a tandem situation now.

 

[GMR]

Shooters have gotten better at picking corners with the current sticks. I don't believe goalies are giving up more soft goals.

 

[Staniowski]

We were in kind of golden age of goaltending from about 2010 to 2017 or so. Goalie stats were through the roof like scoring stats in the 80’s. There’s just not a lot of standouts after the price/lundqvist generation. It’s more of a tandem situation now.

When Save % is high, though, it doesn't mean it's because the goaltenders are better. Remember, Save % and Shooting % are the exact same statistic, from different perspectives. So, as long as the number of shots is roughly the same, more goals scored necessarily mean a lower Save %, and fewer goals scored means a higher Save %.

So, who is responsible when shooting % increases and Save % decreases, and vice versa?

 

[MessierII]

When Save % is high, though, it doesn't mean it's because the goaltenders are better. Remember, Save % and Shooting % are the exact same statistic, from different perspectives. So, as long as the number of shots is roughly the same, more goals scored necessarily mean a lower Save %, and fewer goals scored means a higher Save %.

So, who is responsible when shooting % increases and Save % decreases, and vice versa?

Yeah I agree and it’s all to do with league scoring going up and down. There’s so many factors that play into this it would be a case study.

 

[MadLuke]

According to this:

2023-24 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2023-24 NHL players who are currently active in the league

www.capfriendly.com

In the top 100 players with the highest cap hit that played in the nhl this year, we find only 3 goaltenders

Sergei Bobrovsky
Andre Vasilevskiy
John Gibson

10 years ago we had 11 of them a more natural they are 11% of a 18 player roster team, 11% of the Top 100 are goaltender distribution
Rinne
Lundqvist
Price
Ward
Miller
Backstrom
Kiprusoft
Bryzgalov
Luongo
Thomas
Fleury

the numbers of goaltenders that played in the nhl this year that were a Top 10 pick in the draft
1, Fleury that was in 2003 pick.

In 2012-2013, there was 6 of them, in 2005-2006 there was 7.

It is probably more a relative value than actually being worst element, but there seem to be something going on Moneyball wise for the position.

So not only a vast drop, but a lot of what is still there (high draft pick or large contract) are artifact of the past.

 

[Staniowski]

I think goaltending is good right now.

The perception of goaltending is the bigger issue. A lot of the perception comes from the Save% and GSAA statistics, which are the widely available stats (especially Save%) that the media and hockey fans look at. The chief problem is that these stats don't do a very good job of measuring goalie performance (which is why most people involved in hockey don't use them).

If you look broadly at the last 5 years or so, there are 2 things happening that greatly affect the perception of the quality of goaltending overall, as well as whether or not there are star goalies playing.

The first issue is the increase in scoring, which results in a decline in Save % (when number of shots are roughly the same). I think, generally, it's hard for most hockey people to gauge who (or what) is responsible for this change in scoring. But still, more goals are being scored, Save% is falling, so goalies often get blamed.

The 2nd issue is the relative parity in the league. Teams seem to move quite easily from top-10 to middle-10 or to bottom-10 in the standings. In some other eras, teams stayed near the top for longer periods. The issue here is that teams at the top generally have higher Save% (in the large majority of games the winning team has the higher Save% in that game), and teams at the bottom generally have lower Save %. So, with teams moving around in the standings a lot from year-to-year, Save % moves around from year-to-year also....so, therefore fewer goalies are building up a consistently high Save% as some goalies have done in the past on long-time top teams (e.g. Dryden).