I get flamed for saying this every time I bring it up, but Tkachuk's NMC activating July 1st 2025 is going to be a choke point for the team.
Which doesn't mean either side is going to ask out, but if 2024-25 is another bottom 5-10 finish, I could see a situation developing organically where he gets traded in the summer of 2025.
It's not going to be him asking out. It's going to be the team looking at things realistically and knowing that he will ask out eventually after facing nearly a decade of a failed rebuild, and that once his NMC kicks in they cannot get a big return for him.
Chychrun is the other player I would be skeptical about. He was very excited to come here, but I think it's possible that he may want to play out the season before re-signing in order to see if this team can put it together. That could force the Senators to explore trading him because of the risk of losing him for nothing if he gets hurt. In 10 NHL seasons, he has only been on a playoff team 1 season. He also signed a contract that ended up being well below his market value. Like most players, he may want to go to a playoff team and also get paid like a #1 defenseman.
Stutzle and Sanderson haven't been here long enough to even think about asking out.
Other than those four, who else even has a real escape plan? Norris and Chabot have huge contracts, both have injury concerns. I don't think it would be easy to move them in a trade that makes any sense.
My prediction is that between the TDL and the upcoming offseason, we trade or move on from Chychrun, Batherson, Joseph, Tarasenko, Brannstrom, Kubalik, and one of Forsberg or Korpisalo. Then we use those assets to add different players to change the group around the core of Tkachuk, Chabot, Norris, Giroux, Stutzle, Sanderson, Pinto, Greig, and Hamonic. Probably veterans who are big and play hard.
The great thing is that if they fix this and the team starts winning next year, none of this stuff will be relevant (except for Chychrun, due to timing). All they have to do is realize the potential of this core and become a playoff team and it becomes a clean slate. That's why this TDL and offseason is so important if they plan to re-tool.