Who do you protect at the Expansion Draft - Poll

[Petrus]

With the progress we are seeing from Sandin and Liljegrin, a likely decision will need to be made between Holl and Dermott.

Who do you protect at the Expansion Draft?

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[LeafSteel]

I think we need to see more of Dermott on the right side to really be able to answer this.

I think we are losing Kerfoot irregardless of what D we expose, based on projected available D men for Seattle to select.

 

[MR4]

Even though I’m expecting Dubas to protect Holl, I think Dermott is the better pick to protect. He can play both sides, is younger, will be cost-controlled for longer, and has played better with more D partners than Holl has found chemistry with on our team.

As well, especially if we’re planning to lose Rielly to UFA next year, our RD depth is looking just as good as our LD depth. This makes sense for an organizational plan IMO:

This year:
Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Dermott
Lilly

Next year: (after exposing Holl)
Rielly-Dermott
Sandin-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren
Depth

In two years: (Rielly’s cap $ is given to Liljegren & Sandin for their new contracts)
Sandin-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren
Dermott-Depth

In three years:
Sandin-Brodie
Dermott-Liljegren
Muzzin-Niemela/Prospect

After this season, you look to exit on Muzzin & Brodie to give their cap $ to Matthews & Nylander for their new contracts.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

I was on board for protecting Holl but I’m now leaning more and more towards Dermott. He’s played well on the right side so far and has shown good chemistry with almost everyone he plays with while having good mobility

Holl has had a pretty good season for the most part too and is a good partner for Muzzin. Hopefully the Kraken take Kerfoot because of the lack of centre options

 

[Clark4Ever]

This is a tough call. We have potential replacements for both Dermott and Holl in Sandin and Liljegren.

This is a judgement call to be made after the playoffs.

 

[PromisedLand]

Dermott is RFA still and has played less competitive minutes than Holl.

Also, Holl benefits from playing with Muzzin.

My guess is that Holl probably has more "trade value" than Dermott. If I had to I'd let Dermott go and then trade Holl for value

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl/Liljegren
Sandin Liljegren/Bogo/UFA pick-up
Rosen/XXX


Not sure what becomes of Rielly. If he re-signs with us or prices himself out of Toronto.

Another option is to take the 2 million from Holl and add it to Rielly for 7.5AAV front loaded (hope Mo takes this) and run...

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Liljegren
Sandin Bogo/UFA
Rosen/XXX

Re-evaluate when it is time for Sandin/Liljegren RFA negotiations

I think both Sandin and Lily are ready for Top 4 duties but would be more comfortable if we had a bigger sample size against quality NHL competition

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

Given that Holl is often the player with the highest TOI - it would seem illogical that they wouldn't protect him.
Hopefully it's Kerfoot that goes - he's the easiest to replace.

 

[Tak7]

Holl = top 4, with 2 more years left after this at just $2 million. That's gold dust for a cap team in a flat cap.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Dermott 100%.

From a pure talent, win-now perspective, I'm protecting Holl.

From an asset and upside perspective, I'm protecting Dermott and it's not even close. The guy is 5 years younger, will likely cost south of Holl's 2021-2022 cap hit to re-up, and has slightly higher upside than Holl. Even if Dermott doesn't realize his full upside, he'll likely end up being a similar value contributor to Holl...but be five years younger.

Because we're talking about Holl vs. Dermott, and not choosing between Robertson and Amirov (where their upsides are more unknown and ceilings higher), I'd go with the asset management 10 times out of 10. Holl and Dermott are good #4-5 guys at best, but Robertson and Amirov are potential Top 6 or even 1st line forward guys but could also bust. If you make a mistake between Holl vs. Dermott, you could probably fill that gap via FA at fair value (i.e Bogosian for $1M). If you mess up with Robertson and Amirov, then you could be kicking yourself for years to come.

Given that a Holl vs. Dermott error is fixable within a single offseason, I'd opt for the younger guy with $1M less in cap space and reinvest the dividends elsewhere.

P.S. If I were Seattle, I would definitely take Kerfoot. His age, contract, and production would provide the most value. It's a win-win since the Leafs could fill Kerfoot with Robertson next season + more bottom 6 vet signings.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Holl is way better than Dermott, we should be so lucky if we only lose Dermott in the expansion draft.

 

[zeke]

Christ almighty leafs fans have no idea how to enjoy having a good team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Christ almighty leafs fans have no idea how to enjoy having a good team.

Not sure what that has to do with, who do you protect poll.

 

[zeke]

Not sure what that has to do with, who do you protect poll.

Always worried about what players to give away in the future rather than enjoying having a great team now. Sad.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Obviously would like to keep both but i picked Dermott because age and longevity. They are different types and play different sides and i like both. Can’t say i would argue much whoever they choose to expose.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Always worried about what players to give away in the future rather than enjoying having a great team now. Sad.

Can't argue with that, every team loses a player, and giving up more to take someone else makes no sense, now you lose more assets.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I went into this season expecting to lose Holl, but now I'm not so sure. Dermott certainly has higher upside, but Holl is the safer player and likely has better trade value if he were to be usurped by Sandin or Liljegren.

Unless there's a trade with Seattle, I think we protect Holl.

 

[Buds17]

Tough not to go with Holl here. The team is built to contend now and Holl is currently the better bet to aid with that. No guarantee that Seattle selects its player from the Leaf blueline in this instance though.

 

[The Iceman]

DARN...voted too quick.

I thought it was Kerfoot or Dermott and I went Dermott.

Holl as a PKer who is highly available RHD wins for me.

 

[TopCheese]

I really want dermott to work. He is so deceptive and agile and moves the puck well - passing and rushing it up ice himself. But it just doesn’t lead to offensive chances or points for some reason. I would still keep him over holl though, who I have never been a big fan of

 

[Menzinger]

I'd say it's Holl until Dermott conclusively shows he's worth it. He's shown glimpses but needs a lot more consistency and a bigger sample size.

Either way, as annoying as expansion is for a team in the Leafs position I wouldn't spend too much time worrying about it. The Leafs will lose a better asset than they did against vegas but it won't be a core piece either way

 

[zeke]

Dermott's next contract will likely cost more than Holl's btw.

 

[123offtheglass]

Christ almighty leafs fans have no idea how to enjoy having a good team.

Always worried about what players to give away in the future rather than enjoying having a great team now. Sad.

Not a bad debate/thread but he's got a point. I'm surprised there isn't more talk about what's happening now and in the near future given the time of year and how well the Leafs are doing; there's a lot to talk about there.

 

[Damisoph]

I'm surprised this poll is only 70-30

 

[Arthur Morgan]

dont really matter.
only so many C available. I havnt really checked but I can only assume.
I would think Kerfoot will be Seattle's target

 

[4thline]

Dermott's next contract will likely cost more than Holl's btw.

I'd say it's Holl until Dermott conclusively shows he's worth it. He's shown glimpses but needs a lot more consistency and a bigger sample size.

I think expansion might factor into Dermotts contract negotiations, with agreeing to a Holl contract being Dermotts key to be protected and staying a leaf.