Value of: Which teams are doing better, trading for picks or prospects

[Just Linda]

Ive been looking through the upcoming draft and I'm starting to question what I've long thought of the NHL trade deadline.
I look at a team like like Arizona who are projected to have 2 picks 30-31ish that have around a 40% chance of making it to the NHL and then a whole handful of second round picks that each have a 35% chance of making the NHL. I compare that to a team like Montreal who’s traded for Suzuki, Barron, Heineman through trades in recent years.

https://dobberprospects.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NHL-draft-success-rate-per-round.png

https://dobberprospects.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Simplified-NHL-Draft-probabilities.png

Are we starting to get to the point where its wiser to trade for prospects and not picks?

Click to read more...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Not even close. Picks will always have more value than actual prospects relatively speaking, because with a draft pick, said team not only gets to pick exactly who that prospect is, they also very likely get a guy they had ranked much higher then where he was taken and then get to develop him themselves.


The moment a team starts valuing other teams prospects over draft picks is likely the moment you've lost the trust of your scouting department and significant changes are probably needed.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

A draft pick will always hold more value, just because it is the ability to draft the player your team wants in that spot, a prospect is already a known commodity

 

[Just Linda]

Not even close. Picks will always have more value than actual prospects relatively speaking, because with a draft pick, said team not only gets to pick exactly who that prospect is, they also very likely get a guy they had ranked much higher then where he was taken and then get to develop him themselves.


The moment a team starts valuing other teams prospects over draft picks is likely the moment you've lost the trust of your scouting department and significant changes are probably needed.

At the same time though, getting picks is getting a lot later of an asset. Most firsts that move as part of a rebuild are late firsts, a lot of prospects that get moved are more proven assets.

The prospects dont have as high of a ceiling but they are more sure assets.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Prospects have lower risk than draft picks as there is more data on their progression than an unknown pick. But Draft Picks have more potential because there is less data to chart their expected progression.

The MaxPac deal for Suzuki (plus 2nd (Romanov)+ Tatar) was a good gamble by Bergevin as he got a C that showed upward progression in his D + 1 year. In that trade, Tatar was supposed to be a cap-dump and it didn't turn out that way.

The Kulak deal for a 2nd round pick is also a good one as the Habs traded a low-ceiling D for a magic bean with potential. If that magic bean doesn't sprout, the deal was still worthwhile as the potential along was worth the gamble.

Ergo, you can't choose one over the other. Context is needed when determining which is the better option.

 

[Schemp]

...the Coyotes already traded 2 of their picks for prospects @ the deadline, just saying. Drafting bpa may lead to trades.

With a better than average scouting department that 40% goes up and with every year being unique, where some 2nd rounders skill level would be on the level of another years mid-1st. Before making judgement, lets see how the Coyotes do at the draft, July 7th & 8th. What would be the odds if all 7, from their 1st 2 rounds eventually make it?

 

[StreetHawk]

...the Coyotes already traded 2 of their picks for prospects @ the deadline, just saying. Drafting bpa may lead to trades.

With a better than average scouting department that 40% goes up and with every year being unique, where some 2nd rounders skill level would be on the level of another years mid-1st. Before making judgement, lets see how the Coyotes do at the draft, July 7th & 8th. What would be the odds if all 7, from their 1st 2 rounds eventually make it?

You get a better read on prospects. Barron was a late first and I think Montreal is happy to have him over say the Avs 2022 first which AZ got in the keumper deal.

Remember nhl teams don’t have any control of player development in a day to day setting because their picks are in the CHL, NCAA, Europe, when drafted. They don’t go through the MLB controlled A, AA, AAA minor leagues where all of the coaching staff is theirs. Never know what situation your guy will be in.