NJ DevLolz
The Many Saints of Newark
- Sep 30, 2017
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Value of: Which Players Actually Garner a 1st Round Pick at the TDL?
- Thread starter NJ DevLolz
- Start date
SpeakingOfTheDevils
Devils Advocate
To me, it hinges on whether Panarin, Duchene, and Stone get traded. If all 3 of them go, they will all return 1st rounders, and that will just about dry up the well for the remaining rentals.
I was just about to post a similar thing. It all depends on a few guys being traded (or not) for other guys value to increase or decrease.
Magic Mittens
Registered User
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Stone and Duchene for sure. Eric Staal and Kevin Hayes are the only other players I see returning a 1st.
Panarin obviously could return a 1st, but Columbus has made it clear they’re only interested in trading him for a return that helps them win now.
Panarin obviously could return a 1st, but Columbus has made it clear they’re only interested in trading him for a return that helps them win now.
Martin Skoula
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2017
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Most playoff teams either don't have a 1st this year or have traded a 1st+ last year. There's maybe 3 or 4 playoff teams that can move their 1st without gutting their pipeline for the next 2-3 years. I wouldn't be surprised to see this trade deadline have more prospects/RFAs traded than in the past.
For context:
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]I counted those picks that gave the trading team the option of year as a guaranteed selection.
We're either going to see a real deviation from recent history or there will be some disappointed fans come deadline day. I think it will be the latter.
| Year | Guaranteed | Conditional | Total | Players Dealt |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Comrie (Traded With RFA Campoli, Though) |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Kovalchuk |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Kaberle |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Gaustad |
| 2013 | 2 | 2 | 4 | Iginla, Miller (Condition On Other Pick Not Met), Jagr |
| 2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2015 | 3 | 0 | 3 | Sekera, Vermette, Franson |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | 2 | Ladd, Russell (Condition Not Met) |
| 2017 | 2 | 1 | 3 | Hanzal, Shattenkirk, Eaves |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 3 | Kane, Nash, Stastny |
| Average | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
We're either going to see a real deviation from recent history or there will be some disappointed fans come deadline day. I think it will be the latter.
I'm gonna guess you see 3 guaranteed 1sts get traded and a pair of conditional 1sts. Stone gets a guaranteed first, Hayes gets a 1st, and Panarin gets a 1st.
Duchene gets a conditional 1st that is based on him re-signing with the team he's traded to, but gets a higher quality prospect instead as compensation for the conditional 1st. And Bobrovsky gets a conditional 1st based upon his play in the playoffs, along the lines of if he gets 4 wins in the playoffs the Jackets will get a 1st rounder.
Ferland, Zuccarello, Simmonds, Dzingel, etc. all get 2nds + B or C level prospects.
Duchene gets a conditional 1st that is based on him re-signing with the team he's traded to, but gets a higher quality prospect instead as compensation for the conditional 1st. And Bobrovsky gets a conditional 1st based upon his play in the playoffs, along the lines of if he gets 4 wins in the playoffs the Jackets will get a 1st rounder.
Ferland, Zuccarello, Simmonds, Dzingel, etc. all get 2nds + B or C level prospects.
BinCookin
Registered User
WingsMJN2965
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- Oct 13, 2017
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Is Chicago the team giving the 1st?
Hartman and Tatar also returned firsts last year for a total of 5.
MattMartin
Crypto Dbag™
Matt Rentfree
Registered User
These are purely rentals for those commenting FYI, Kane shouldnt be on there since he was traded & re-signed by SJS
tatar, hartman, mcdonagh/miller were RFAs or had term
I'll go with 5 first rounders from the list of players.
Stone, Duchene, Panarin, Hayes and a conditional first for extension on Dzingel.
Stone, Duchene, Panarin, Hayes and a conditional first for extension on Dzingel.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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If the Leafs make Gardiner available to the rental market to get assets and a roster spot for a RD, he'd get one.
The top 4 guys on the OP list are the only ones I think would be guaranteed to get one on their own. The other 6 may need a small sweetner, like another rental attached (i.e. Hayes and McQuaid could get a 1st or something).
The top 4 guys on the OP list are the only ones I think would be guaranteed to get one on their own. The other 6 may need a small sweetner, like another rental attached (i.e. Hayes and McQuaid could get a 1st or something).
Hartman was an RFA and Tatar had term. OP was talking about 2019 UFAs.
McDonagh had an extra year of term.
The Sharks traded for him sans extension. I wasn't listing rentals, just players traded for 1sts at the deadline in their UFA year w/o extension.
I did leave off Vanek, but he was traded so far in advance that he fit in more with full-year acquisitions like Tanguay, Lucic, Karlsson, etc.
1sts haven't moved for assets with such limited term as often as HF would lead you to believe.
jay caufield forhead
Registered User
TorontoTrades
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- Feb 4, 2012
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I think conditionals going to be more common as too many people get bounced first round and it becomes a terrible more. Safe netting with conditions should become more common place for rentals. Obviously really good players will command no protection.
CodeE
step on snek
I'd happily trade the Isles 1st for one of the top forward rentals this year. The problem is when you then demand a young guy like Oliver Wahlstrom or Bode Wilde coming alongside that 1st "at minimum".
eco's bones
Registered User
McDonagh and JT Miller went to Tampa for Howden, Hajek, Namestnikov and a 2018 1st and a conditional 2019 2nd that will become the 2019 1st if Tampa wins the Stanley Cup this year.....keeping in mind though those draft picks will be very late in their rounds. But when all the smoke clears the McDonagh deal might be for two first round draft choices +++.
Duchene, Stone, Panarin (if moved), and Skinner (if moved) will all get at least a first.
Everyone else is questionable because there are too many UFA forwards and not enough buyers. I think Staal is the top of the next group.
Everyone else is questionable because there are too many UFA forwards and not enough buyers. I think Staal is the top of the next group.
