Where did Yzerman go wrong with the rebuild?

[heyfolks]

DRAFT: B+
UFA: F-
COACH: C

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

All I know is at this point his seat should be getting hot. The bad contracts and roster construction while bad, at least I can understand the rationale behind them. But staying behind a lame duck coach that you hand picked as we flounder around in what should have been a competing year is for me inexcusable.

 

[Twinger]

I don't understand this magical age limit of 30 where players are suddenly no longer part of a core. Larkin's game has longevity, he is not one dimensional where if one his one thing declines then his game is toast. Yeah obviously we need players that can fill in or even take over but its not like we need a cup run within 2 years or Larkin suddenly needs to be taken out to pasture. Lots of cup winning teams have 30+ year players in their top 6.

It's more if he's not in his prime at 30 and we don't have someone to replace him. I don't understand this magical drafting where all of our picks make it and are stars. Ed could be the next Myers and that's wheels off the defence rebuild

Larkin plays a high tempo game and is in his scoring prime right now. Kasper and Nate may be 4 years away from a ppg if they even make it.

Sure lots of cup teams can have 30+ in their top 6 but they aren't what drives a cup team, below are 30+ top 6 players.
Panthers - Rodrigues
Vegas would be your best one with marchessalut, smith, stone and karlsson
Avs Kadri
Lightings last cup - Stamkos and headman

I'm going to lean towards the players we have drafted not turing out like your Barkovs, Mackinnons, Kucherovs, Eichels

And I'm not looking at cup run in 2 years, more like playoffs in 2 then 2 years of teeth cutting and then maybe contenders.

Is Lalonde even here next year? Is the next coach the one to take us to the playoffs or is it another 2 or 3 years of finding a coach to put a system in place?

Of the 240 teams to find themselves in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving since the 2005-06 season*, 184 have gone on to make the post-season the following spring. That’s a 76.7 per cent success rate. Of the 56 teams that fell out of the picture after the Thanksgiving milestone, 31 were hovering within a single point of the final wild-card berth. Just two teams in the salary-cap era have found themselves outside the playoffs after sitting ahead of the final berth by 10 or more points.

(*This statistic does not include the 2019-20 or 2020-21 seasons, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.)

What U.S. Thanksgiving standings tell us about 2023-24 NHL playoff hopes

As most hockey fans know, U.S. Thanksgiving has long been an unofficial marker against which to gauge a franchise’s post-season hopes. But will history repeat itself? Emily Sadler takes a look.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[minimal]

All I know is at this point his seat should be getting hot. The bad contracts and roster construction while bad, at least I can understand the rationale behind them. But staying behind a lame duck coach that you hand picked as we flounder around in what should have been a competing year is for me inexcusable.

If you thought this was a year that we would compete for the playoff with the roster we have, that's on you. I think if Lalonde is getting fired, it's going to be around mid-December after this series of gameday/off-day is done. Even then, I fully expect it to be an interim coach.

Another year of bad/uninspired hockey is awful, but there's no hot seat until the young players seriously flounder in the next few years.

 

[Winger98]

It's more if he's not in his prime at 30 and we don't have someone to replace him. I don't understand this magical drafting where all of our picks make it and are stars. Ed could be the next Myers and that's wheels off the defence rebuild

Because those are the stars that typically have to align for teams to become contenders for any extended period of time. Everyone knows there's a chance that it doesn't happen for whatever reason. The Wings wouldn't be the first to suffer from that, and they wouldn't be the last. And that is what would likely be the final nail in Yzerman's GM coffin.

But a lot of these kids are trending in the right direction and we are at that point where we will see them filter into the lineup in a serious way. So we'll soon find out.

 

[lidstromiscool]

DRAFT: B+
UFA: F-
COACH: C

I'd add a couple more grades:

1st round draft: A+
2nd round and later: F
UFA: F
Roster construction: D
Coach: incomplete - roster is terrible, hard to evaluate

 

[schuelma24]

I'd add a couple more grades:

1st round draft: A+
2nd round and later: F
UFA: F
Roster construction: D
Coach: incomplete - roster is terrible, hard to evaluate

The thing about 2nd round or later is if just one prospect hits the rest is irrelevant. And Buch and Lombardi are both looking like they could do it.

 

[lidstromiscool]

The thing about 2nd round or later is if just one prospect hits the rest is irrelevant. And Buch and Lombardi are both looking like they could do it.

It's been 6 drafts. With averaging over 2 second round picks per draft. With some truly astoundingly bad picks. Draper/Yzerman have zero clue on what to do outside the first round.

 

[Snuggs]

I don't want to give you the money for Stamkos! But here is more money to sign Kane, Tarasenko, Talbot, Gus, Fischer, and Motte which was $15,175,000 not including the Kane bonus and also paying big for Mo and Ray.

But yeah I'm sure he cheaped out on Stammer, sure.

Literally a half dozen stop gaps doesn't scream commitment either.

I'm not mad they didn't sign Stamkos, I just see both sides of this coin. Hate to bring his name up but Shayne Gostisbehere is a guy so far worth the term.

 

[Oddbob]

DRAFT: B+
UFA: F-
COACH: E-

Fixed.

 

[wingsfannn919191]

Unless yzerman gets rid of bodies who are the next guys to get called up when we have injuries???

Easy answer would be danielson and lombardi but I was looking at the roster and soderblom will be 24 next summer and wallinder 23.

I'd say those are the next call ups?? We have to make a final call on soderblom(still think there might be something there) and wallinder will probably be in the lineup due to his age but he should get some games in so he'll know what to expect

Course I want to see lombardi and danielson but those 2 are my first guys. Mazur as well whenever he returns

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Literally a half dozen stop gaps doesn't scream commitment either.

I'm not mad they didn't sign Stamkos, I just see both sides of this coin. Hate to bring his name up but Shayne Gostisbehere is a guy so far worth the term.

But this "rumor" is Illitch didn't want to pony up, so he then ponies up?

Not sure how many times I can go into the Ghost convo but here one last time. He made 4.125mil here and had his second best season of his career. So logically that means he is going to want a raise in Detroit. I don't think there was a chance in hell he was signing here for 3.2mil x 3 years like he did for a contender. You don't post one of your best seasons and take a pay cut, unless everyone knows what you are and you couldn't get the payday expected so you went with that.

He is a 3rd pairing PP specialist. The one thing I was scared about losing Perron and Ghost for was our PP and so far it's good. I'm sure we would still be having these awful defensive lapses and complaining about Yzerman signing yet another bloated contract. Just like most of us were happy, me included about the Tank signing.

Hindsight and all that.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Literally a half dozen stop gaps doesn't scream commitment either.

I'm not mad they didn't sign Stamkos, I just see both sides of this coin. Hate to bring his name up but Shayne Gostisbehere is a guy so far worth the term.

He's 20 games into a 3-year deal (or 226 more games).

This season is not one the Wings would worry about with Ghost. It's what role he'd be playing on the Wings in the 2026-27 season.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

I would put it this way looking at this season:

We knew that this team was going to be hard pressed to make the playoffs. They were borderline, and we took a step back on O, we hoped we could make up for it with internal improvement from the core and more consistent goaltending - and that just hasn't been enough.

I think, despite the fact that everyone thinks this year is a utter failure, and should cost everyone their jobs as this was obviously the year we were going to break out.... I would point back to the beginning of the season when we got a rather, frank honest moment from Yzerman when they said how the Wings felt about this season, and I'm paraphrasing "we expect that the team is about where it was last year"

I think, albeit frustrating for a number of reasons (I'm with you), i don't think this is all that surprising to the organization and would even venture a guess that it was kind of expected?

Well! They should all be fired then! No one should expect this!!#."

Maybe... I think they are sold on a steady, gradual rebuild over time. As many posters have sit here and repeatedly said, the core hasn't really gotten here yet. We're still in transition and will be until Danielson, MBN, Cossa, etc. are firmly here with Seider, Ray, Kasper, and Ed. If we're getting run out of San Jose on a rail with those guys? I think the we have a way larger problem.

Okay, so the season is meh. Where did we go wrong? I don't think we've gone wrong yet. I think this year is the potential "gone wrong" year. I'm bought into the vision and the length of time it takes us to get there. I see the value of "depth of good quality players" vs. "Core 4 Star Power", the rebuilt D, the towering goaltending, the veterans as stopgap transitional - all of it. I'm on board.

But this year feels different. It feels a little too much like we are trying to avoid having some conviction and chose just exactly where we are and what we need to to be at this point. My fear of this "gone wrong" season here, is that we don't make any moves, and we casually try to tweak what's here instead of either trying to add to immediately improve and make the run - or we gut it and move to more of the prospects, and try to get the last Top 5 pick we will need.

So I see a crossroad:

Option 1:
Make the push: where we see the immediate problem at hand, specifically a depth scoring option at 5 on 5, and a stable Top 4 D. You want to push for the spot? Great. Make the move to mix up the middle six scoring and find us the 2nd pair D man. Send a young player, send a pick or prospect - commit to make this team competitive and make the move.

OR

Option 2
If we aren't there and we need to commit to the long term of the core, ship at least 2-3 vets, and pull up more of the prospects by mid season to get them the reps and let finish in the bottom 5 and land the last true big name stud to this core and reset in the offseason.

Embrace the fact we're going to the Bottom 10, send off Chiarot (No one would take him! Yes, they would and we'd return value), send off Kane or Tarasenko. Bring up Danielson, Mazur, and Wallinder. Lets see what we've got and run some new lines with the kids - with the hops we end up wtih a 4OA and grab Misa or something to round out the last Top Line forward.

What I would consider the "made the wrong choice" in the rebuild - is to keep what we have together right now without actively trying to make it better... or worse ... at this point

 

[Gniwder]

Coach: incomplete - roster is terrible, hard to evaluate

Huh? No transition system and really slow to make adjustments. Plus you can see a complete lack of motivation. Fester gets a D at best.

The thing about 2nd round or later is if just one prospect hits the rest is irrelevant. And Buch and Lombardi are both looking like they could do it.

Buch, Lombardi, Gus, and maybe Becher and Finnie.

... but I have to agree with this:

It's been 6 drafts. With averaging over 2 second round picks per draft. With some truly astoundingly bad picks. Draper/Yzerman have zero clue on what to do outside the first round.

Even if they do hit on a few prospects, it doesn't excuse throwing away picks on the steamer or Draper's kid.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

If you thought this was a year that we would compete for the playoff with the roster we have, that's on you. I think if Lalonde is getting fired, it's going to be around mid-December after this series of gameday/off-day is done. Even then, I fully expect it to be an interim coach.

Another year of bad/uninspired hockey is awful, but there's no hot seat until the young players seriously flounder in the next few years.

You can only sell the “but just wait for the kids” line for so long.

What if Daniels is another Zadina? What if Cossa is another Justin Pogge? Suppose Sandin-Pellikka is Cholowski 2.0?

Then what?

 

[Winger98]

You can only sell the “but just wait for the kids” line for so long.

What if Daniels is another Zadina? What if Cossa is another Justin Pogge? Suppose Sandin-Pellikka is Cholowski 2.0?

Then what?

Yzerman canned, coach fired, some players traded for picks/prospects, others kept to build around rebuild 2.0 by whoever takes over.

 

[schuelma24]

You can only sell the “but just wait for the kids” line for so long.

What if Daniels is another Zadina? What if Cossa is another Justin Pogge? Suppose Sandin-Pellikka is Cholowski 2.0?

Then what?

then the rebuild was f***ed anyways.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sure lots of cup teams can have 30+ in their top 6 but they aren't what drives a cup team, below are 30+ top 6 players.
Panthers - Rodrigues
Vegas would be your best one with marchessalut, smith, stone and karlsson
Avs Kadri
Lightings last cup - Stamkos and headman

Would anyone be surprised if Dallas wins the cup? If they had won last year? Everywhere I look I see them mentioned as one of the contenders. Duchene (33) and Seguin (32) are still playing top 6 roles for them.

 

[Snuggs]

He's 20 games into a 3-year deal (or 226 more games).

This season is not one the Wings would worry about with Ghost. It's what role he'd be playing on the Wings in the 2026-27 season.

Just... walking down the rabbit-hole. What do you think it'd be with Edvinsson/Seider/Sandin-Pellikka on that roster?

I'm going to quit kicking a dead horse, in this case especially I'm not suggesting 'ownership' was the reason he's not here cause of the extra year.

 

[Snuggs]

Would anyone be surprised if Dallas wins the cup? If they had won last year? Everywhere I look I see them mentioned as one of the contenders. Duchene (33) and Seguin (32) are still playing top 6 roles for them.

I wouldn't be surprised. They're very good.

Dark-horse Larkin trade candidates.

 

[Winger98]

Just... walking down the rabbit-hole. What do you think it'd be with Edvinsson/Seider/Sandin-Pellikka on that roster?

I'm going to quit kicking a dead horse, in this case especially I'm not suggesting 'ownership' was the reason he's not here cause of the extra year.

Ed-Seider
?-ASP
?-Ghost
Albert, Wallinder

I think the hope is that wally takes one of those question marks, maybe pair with Seider so Ed can anchor that second pairing with ASP? I think Seider and ASP should take the powerplay spots, so Ghost would be a 16-18 minute guy on the third pair. I could see a use there, but I also don't care that Ghost is gone. I just wish we hadn't signed Gus.

 

[Twinger]

Would anyone be surprised if Dallas wins the cup? If they had won last year? Everywhere I look I see them mentioned as one of the contenders. Duchene (33) and Seguin (32) are still playing top 6 roles for them.

I didn't say it was impossible. They also had 9 players score 50 points, a top 10 goalie and a top 10 defenceman.

If our stars align maybe we can have that when Larkin 32 and other teams will point to us as contenders a 30+ major contributor

 

[Pavels Dog]

I didn't say it was impossible. They also had 9 players score 50 points, a top 10 goalie and a top 10 defenceman.

If our stars align maybe we can have that when Larkin 32 and other teams will point to us as contenders a 30+ major contributor

Right, but we’ve known for a few years we’d need to win with depth, defense and goaltending.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

I didn't say it was impossible. They also had 9 players score 50 points, a top 10 goalie and a top 10 defenceman.

If our stars align maybe we can have that when Larkin 32 and other teams will point to us as contenders a 30+ major contributor

Dallas is a team that we could mirror to some extent but I think it's a bit of a "best case scenario" deal. We would need every single guy basically to hit their potential top end of their ceiling but there are a lot of stylistic analogs between the two of them.

We probably don't have Robertson in our mix at the moment (Raymond being the closet in terms of elite 1st line Winger, but not a natural goal scorer like Robertson or has his size) - though I would argue that our upside of our blue line with Mo, Ed, ASP, and Cossa is probably higher than theirs?