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When Will the Habs Make the PLAYOFFS Next when Will We be Legitimate Contenders

bobholly39

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Mar 10, 2013
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Curious to get a general feeling from fans here in regards to what your expectations/predictions are for the next few years.

Two questions - so vote twice.

1. When do the Habs qualify for playoffs next?

2. When will Habs be legitimate cup contenders?

Use your own judgement to define what a "legitimate cup contender" is. My 2 cents - using last year as an example, I'd say FLA/Car/NYR/Dal/Col/Veg/Edm were probably the legitimate contenders. Teams who had a legitimate chance to win cup going into playoffs. Some years it could be only 3-4 teams, some years closer to ~8-10, so it depends.

I know it's very hard to predict too far into the future, so I didn't want to give poll options for beyond next 3 years for playoffs, or next 5 years to become contenders.

Please post your thoughts/opinions.
 
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Montreal will finish higher in the standings this coming season, but still miss the playoffs. The gap is still too much to overcome in the Atlantic.

I think the team makes the playoffs in 25-26... and I'm betting that the moves management makes next off-season will support that.

Contending is another matter, I'm not sure about that.
 
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2025-2026 season was always my projected start for playoffs even when we were drafting Slaf. I hope by 2027-2028, our players have developed enough and Hughes has been able to add talent enough for Montreal to be considered one of the top contenders.
 
It's all very hard to predict with any certainty. I think the Habs might surprise some folks this year.

That doesn't mean playoffs, but between 1) the incredibly young core progressing, 2) the amount of close games we were in last year, and 3) the addition of Kirby freakin Dach I think we are due for a substantial improvement.

Maybe the biggest risk to that scenario is the goaltending, as we were treated to top 5 goaltending for the first half of last year before it started to falter a bit.

If that drops down to average or below average we could stay relatively stationary in the standings despite better play from the skaters.

In terms of longer term, I still think we're simply too young on the back end to realistically compete for the cup in the next few years. When was the last time a cup contender had a D group that were mostly in their early 20s?
 
Canadienna said:
It's all very hard to predict with any certainty. I think the Habs might surprise some folks this year.

That doesn't mean playoffs, but between 1) the incredibly young core progressing, 2) the amount of close games we were in last year, and 3) the addition of Kirby freakin Dach I think we are due for a substantial improvement.

Maybe the biggest risk to that scenario is the goaltending, as we were treated to top 5 goaltending for the first half of last year before it started to falter a bit.

If that drops down to average or below average we could stay relatively stationary in the standings despite better play from the skaters.

In terms of longer term, I still think we're simply too young on the back end to realistically compete for the cup in the next few years. When was the last time a cup contender had a D group that were mostly in their early 20s?
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The big question mark is definitely goaltending. But it's a question mark either way.

Last year :

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]Player Name[/TH]
[TH]GP[/TH]
[TH]Min[/TH]
[TH]GA[/TH]
[TH]GAA[/TH]
[TH]W[/TH]
[TH]L[/TH]
[TH]T[/TH]
[TH]Svs[/TH]
[TH]Pct[/TH]
[TH]EN[/TH]
[TH]SO[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cayden Primeau[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]1325[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]2.99[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]665[/TD]
[TD]0.910[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Samuel Montembeault[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]2429[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]3.14[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]1180[/TD]
[TD]0.903[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Allen[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]1216[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[TD]3.65[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]612[/TD]
[TD]0.892[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

I mean Primeau and Montembeault finished the year 24-24-13. Allen really dragged us down. Can Primeau and Montembeault keep the pace with higher usage is the question mark but Allen was almost an insta lost last year he was awful. If Primeau and MOnteambeault can keep the pace while playing more then we should be close to .500 P%. If not then like you said we could draft 5th again despite progression of the rest of the team.
 
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We make the playoffs in 2025-2026.

Become a true contender for the cup in 2029-2030 when guys like Demidov/Hutson/Reinbacher/Mailloux/2025 1st round pick reach their mid-20s.

There’s a big gap between a playoff team and a contender. History says you gotta learn to lose before you learn to win.

Look at the Lightning core who have multiple HOF, they had to wait until their core reached their mid to late 20s and couple losses in the early rounds before they won. Florida became contender last year when Barkov was 27, Tkachuk 25, Ekblad 27. They also lost a few times before making that final push. Bruins core had to wait for Chára to reach his 30s to win, while having a damn good core of their own. Oilers lost many times before they made the finals and that’s with a generational duo of McDavid/Draisaitl who are now 27-28. Their contention window is open now.

Let’s also not forget that not every core makes the jump from contenders to actual champions. Lightning were seen as chokers and too soft with people questioning Stamkos as a captain especially after that loss to Columbus. Feels like yesterday Matthew Tkachuk was known as a playoff ghost in Calgary. The Leafs and Oilers core are going through that same journey. Both cores are in their mid-late 20s with multiple playoffs losses on their resume. Can they make that final big push?

Teams winning with a core under 25 is the exception to the rule. Odds are we’re gonna have to wait for the youngsters to go through the same process. I love Susuzki and Caufield but they’re not gonna get it done with a bunch of kids in their early 20s.

Another 4-5 years and suffering a couple beat downs in the early rounds to teams in their prime before we compete if everything goes according to plan.
 
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This year feels like it will be another miss. I like the roster because of where it can go not because of where it is today.

I have capfriendly open which is showing the Habs today (July 4th) have $10.18M to fill 5 spots (but Dach is on IR, so does that mean they have 4 spots to fill for $6.82M?). Whichever the case, the Habs have very good cap flexibility next year (2025-2026) with hopefully this year as the final transition year having a (few) young player(s) to really cement their role on the team still under their ELC contract (Beck, Roy, Reinbacher, Mailloux, etc.) .

Next years UFA crop looks very interesting (Crosby, Draisaitl, to just name a very few) which could for a team with so many roster spots to fill. To add another method to acquire players is cleary to trade some of the players where we find them all at the same place in their development and at the same age. The habs have many players in the 20-23 age range.

Contending by 2028? Matheson 34 (Drafted in 2012) Suzuki/Primeau are 29 (Drafted in 2017), Harris 28 (Drafted in 2018), Caufield/Newhook/Dach/Xhekaj/Struble 27 (2019), Guhle 26 (2020), Mailloux, Roy, Kapanen 25 (2021), Hutson/Slaf/Mesar/Beck 24 (2022), Reinbaucher/Fowler 23 (2023), Demidov/Hage 22 (2024). As mentioned above, I know that KH will have eventually make trades which means the team will never be made up of these 21 players. I wanted to show how many players we have in the same age group. I'm optimistic with how KH has been building this team. I like how he signed Slaf. He has Xhekaj and Barron to sign. He needs to give Guhle an extension very soon.

This year? Nah
Next year? Yeah
Contending? 2027-2028, so in the 3rd year in a row of making the playoffs, they go final 4 or better.
 
Habs will be surprise team of '24-'25 and firmly lock up a wild card spot this year before winning their first round matchup against the Laffs.

After a successful '25 offseason, Habs go into '25-'26 as a playoff lock and push to the conference finals.

'26-'27 we have a contender with a cap situation & prospect pipeline that is the envy of the league, with 12M more opening up the following summer... We enter a 5+ year window of

Future is bright 😎
 
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WeThreeKings said:
We will be where Philly/Detroit ish were this past season in this upcoming campaign.

We will make it as a wildcard the following year and then we will be considered potential contenders after that.
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That's also about where I think we will be. We already have fantastic draft capital for 2025 and I can barely fathom what that's likely to look like after next year's TDL.

Many deadwood will be gone, we will shed 18 131 250$ by just not resigning our UFAs + the deadcap on Petry's + Allen. Even more depending on the RFAs we wish to retain (RHP, Harris).

The talent we have coming in on ELC's has never been as promising in the last 20 years, Hutson Reinbacher Demidov at the very least, many more might surprise us. With the continued growth of our core and our defense we can easily aspire to the playoffs in 25/26.
 
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Here's one way to look at it.

Pick out the oldest guy from their young core. That would be nick Suzuki.

He's entering his 25 year old season which will be another non playoff year.

The Habs have identified him as their core guy, and you don't really want to be wasting his prime years, or your rebuild risks eating away at a window rather than building up the roster.

I don't think the Habs have any intention of moving him, So I would look at next summer as montreal's pivot. Suzuki will be entering his 26 year old season, and I think it indicates to management that it's time to turn a corner.

So assuming that intention, I think the Habs will be very serious about making the playoffs in 25/26.
 
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JianYang said:
Here's one way to look at it.

Pick out the oldest guy from their young core. That would be nick Suzuki.

He's entering his 25 year old season which will be another non playoff year.

The Habs have identified him as their core guy, and you don't really want to be wasting his prime years, or your rebuild risks eating away at a window rather than building up the roster.

I don't think the Habs have any intention of moving him, So I would look at next summer as montreal's pivot. Suzuki will be entering his 26 year old season, and I think it indicates to management that it's time to turn a corner.

So assuming that intention, I think the Habs will be very serious about making the playoffs in 25/26.
Click to expand...

Check my post just above. I went through the exercise of the players and their ages against their draft year. I do think they make the playoffs in 25/26 at the earliest unless some big moves happen that gives the Habs a better shot this year.
 
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