When will Connor Bedard become a top 5 player in the NHL?

[bobholly39]

Based on hype and pedigree and strength as a prospect - I think a very strong case can be made to say he is the 3rd best prospect drafted in the NHL in almost 20 years, behind Crosby/McDavid post-lockout. I know some disagree, but most seem to have him that high.

A lot of people were even debating whether he might be as good as Crosby/McDavid.

In years 2 of their careers - both McDavid & Crosby won the Hart/Lindsay/Ross trophies and went to to remain a top 5 (and often top 1) player in the league for many, many years.

So all that to say - going into his second season, do you think Connor Bedard can catapult himself into being a top 5 player in the league? And if not next year - will it be in 2 years? 3 years? More? Never?

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[DitchMarner]

The best NHL comparable among centres I can think of for him is Auston Matthews.

Defensively Bedard is poor right now whereas Matthews is a positive (even if a bit overrated). Bedard will improve his defensive play, but I don't see him really becoming a two-way C. I referenced Matthews because they're both great shooters and natural goal scorers and I think Bedard should become that calibre of player eventually. To make up for not being as good defensively, he'll be a better skater, more dynamic and a better playmaker.

He'll make a jump this year but won't be a top five player. He'll become top five two or three years from now.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Voted 3+ years. He's still young and on a poor team.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think he will eventually become a top 3 offensive forward, but I don't know if he will ever be a top 5 overall player.

 

[Toby91ca]

Based on hype and pedigree and strength as a prospect - I think a very strong case can be made to say he is the 3rd best prospect drafted in the NHL in almost 20 years, behind Crosby/McDavid post-lockout. I know some disagree, but most seem to have him that high.

A lot of people were even debating whether he might be as good as Crosby/McDavid.

In years 2 of their careers - both McDavid & Crosby won the Hart/Lindsay/Ross trophies and went to to remain a top 5 (and often top 1) player in the league for many, many years.

So all that to say - going into his second season, do you think Connor Bedard can catapult himself into being a top 5 player in the league? And if not next year - will it be in 2 years? 3 years? More? Never?

We should probably acknowledge that Crosby and McDavid are extreme exceptions....if someone doesn't match them, shouldn't be seen as a slight. At any point in time, if you think about who you think are the top 5 players in the league, almost all of them wouldn't have been there in year 2 and almost all wouldn't be there consistently year after year. I guess with all the Bedard hype, that is a bit of the expectation and if he doesn't end up there some will see as a let down, but I think that's unfair.

He clearly has some skill, I do think his size may be a bit of a challenge, but we'll see. I think he'll be a star, I suggested maybe next year, don't necessarily think he'll be top 5 this year.

 

[Video Nasty]

Not sure. I love Bedard and hyped him hard, and I think without injuries and even a slightly better team, he would have been seen to have delivered during his rookie campaign.

But now, I just think there’s too much top end talent to make breaking into the top 5 any time soon a sure thing.

This isn’t like when Crosby came into the league and only really had Ovechkin and Malkin to deal with, or where he could miss a bunch of games and never worry about getting dislodged from even #3.

 

[hamzarocks]

It has to be next year or hes a disapointment and wont ever live to his draft hype

He needs 110 pts next year with a evenish +/-

More offensive weapons in Bertuzzi + Teurvionen + Hall (if healthy) + other young hawks players and he will be a year older and strong so that should help him have a huge season as he'll be used to NHL pace and physicality along with knowing best ways to be effective and produce without needlessly burnign energy

I dont have him at that level of player anymore tbh

I do think he can a top 5 player by his 4th or 5th season but I dont think hes generational

Predicting a 90 pt season next year but hoping he proves me wrong and can get the hawks to low 80s in points next year while being top 5 or 6 in league scoring

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Crosby/malkin/ovechkin/mcdavid all wons art ross trophies and mvps by their third seasons. Bedard should be making a huge jump here

 

[Rabid Ranger]

The best NHL comparable among centres I can think of for him is Auston Matthews.

Defensively Bedard is poor right now whereas Matthews is a positive (even if a bit overrated). Bedard will improve his defensive play, but I don't see him really becoming a two-way C. I referenced Matthews because they're both great shooters and natural goal scorers and I think Bedard should become that calibre of player eventually. To make up for not being as good defensively, he'll be a better skater, more dynamic and a better playmaker.

He'll make a jump this year but won't be a top five player. He'll become top five two or three years from now.

His comp is not Matthews. Point maybe.

 

[amnesiac]

25-26

 

[blundluntman]

He's gonna have his work cut out for him that's for sure. I see a Mario esque trajectory (as far as how long it takes to reach the top of the ladder, not how high he climbs) more than a McDavid/Crosby esque trajectory. Crosby didn't have a generational superstar in the middle of their prime when he entered the league so the throne was a bit easier to take in year 2. Crosby was also 30 in McDavid's sophomore season and still gave McDavid a run for his money in 2017 before McDavid took over. Bedard has McDavid, Mackinnon and Kucherov all still in their primes to deal with. I do think in 2 or 3 years though he'll be in the conversation for best player in the league. Mario took 3-4 years to really take the mantle as the top guy given team situations and Gretzky's age. Different players have different landing spots.

His comp is not Matthews. Point maybe.

In what way is his trajectory comparable to Brayden Point?

 

[x Tame Impala]

I don't see the league's elite players slowing down anytime in the next 1-3 seasons so it doesn't leave a lot of room for Bedard.

Ages this upcoming season...

McDavid: 27/28 years old
Kucherov: 31
MacKinnon: 29
Matthews: 27
Draisaitl: 29

A healthy Jack Hughes is going to be in the way as well. Time will tell. I'm excited to see him play on an improved roster this season and the sky is the limit for his potential. We'll just have to see!

 

[dgibb10]

It is very very hard to be a top 5 player in D+2 or D+3 (age 19 and 20 years), which would be bedards next 2 years.

From the cap era you've got

McDavid
Crosby
Ovi (and if you go by hart voting he didn't reach top 5 until his age 22 season)

I think he's below those guys, especially with the competition in the league rn.

I think the earliest realistic timeline is age 21, in 2026-27, but the Auston Matthews timeline of not taking that next step until age 23 like matthews did in 2020-21 is realistic too

 

[sensfan4lifee]

I see him at Jack Hughes level of play in the future

100-120 points at his peak

As for this season? no

 

[nowhereman]

Not sure. I love Bedard and hyped him hard, and I think without injuries and even a slightly better team, he would have been seen to have delivered during his rookie campaign.

But now, I just think there’s too much top end talent to make breaking into the top 5 any time soon a sure thing.

This isn’t like when Crosby came into the league and only really had Ovechkin and Malkin to deal with, or where he could miss a bunch of games and never worry about getting dislodged from even #3.

Yeah, Crosby only had the greatest goalscorer of all time, one of the most skilled centers of all time, a top 5 defenseman of all time, a top 3 two-way center of all time, etc. to compete with when he came into the league. And are you suggesting that today's talent level would make it difficult for Sid to break into the top 5? He was the best player in the world at nineteen.

 

[93LEAFS]

His comp is not Matthews. Point maybe.

Yeah, while the shots are comparable, they are just such different players. While Matthews may not be as fast or as good a skater as Bedard, a lot of what makes Matthews special past his shot is the overall skill level of a guy who is like 6'3 210-220. He ability to use his reach and wingspan (combined with his hands) to shield the puck and change shooting angles. Like, if Matthews gets an inch on a defender they have almost no chance of outmuscling him or using their reach to get the puck, and he can get that shot off with power and accuracy from that tough angle.

 

[Video Nasty]

Yeah, Crosby only had the greatest goalscorer of all time, one of the most skilled centers of all time, a top 5 defenseman of all time, a top 3 two-way center of all time, etc. to compete with when he came into the league. And are you suggesting that today's talent level would make it difficult for Sid to break into the top 5?

I’m suggesting whatever makes you go from zero to a hundred even quicker.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah, Crosby only had the greatest goalscorer of all time, one of the most skilled centers of all time, a top 5 defenseman of all time, a top 3 two-way center of all time, etc. to compete with when he came into the league. And are you suggesting that today's talent level would make it difficult for Sid to break into the top 5?

For the title of top 5 player who was crosby competing with in his 2nd year?

There's a reason basically 3 guys in their early 20s were ALL able to cement themselves as top 5 players at that exact same time.

Hart voting that year

 

[Fogelhund]

Bedard doesn't have the quality of players around him, some of the other names did when they really broke out. I really don't think the team breaks out of the lottery this year, so they'll have another chance to surround him with more talent. He'll have his time, but it might not be this year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yeah, while the shots are comparable, they are just such different players. While Matthews may not be as fast or as good a skater as Bedard, a lot of what makes Matthews special past his shot is the overall skill level of a guy who is like 6'3 210-220. He ability to use his reach and wingspan (combined with his hands) to shield the puck and change shooting angles. Like, if Matthews gets an inch on a defender they have almost no chance of outmuscling him or using their reach to get the puck, and he can get that shot off with power and accuracy from that tough angle.

I don't think Bedard is really that much better of a skater than Matthews. Their NHL edge numbers suggest that their speed is pretty much on par.

The biggest difference between the two is how often Matthews gets to the net vs Bedard, who was confined to the perimeter for most of this past year.

 

[Crow]

It has to be next year or hes a disapointment and wont ever live to his draft hype

He needs 110 pts next year with a evenish +/-

More offensive weapons in Bertuzzi + Teurvionen + Hall (if healthy) + other young hawks players and he will be a year older and strong so that should help him have a huge season as he'll be used to NHL pace and physicality along with knowing best ways to be effective and produce without needlessly burnign energy

I dont have him at that level of player anymore tbh

I do think he can a top 5 player by his 4th or 5th season but I dont think hes generational

Predicting a 90 pt season next year but hoping he proves me wrong and can get the hawks to low 80s in points next year while being top 5 or 6 in league scoring

People mature at different ages. Your whole premise is off. Nate Mackinnon is a top 3 player in the league. He didn’t show it until he was 22.

 

[yianik]

Bedard doesn't have the quality of players around him, some of the other names did when they really broke out. I really don't think the team breaks out of the lottery this year, so they'll have another chance to surround him with more talent. He'll have his time, but it might not be this year.

This. My eye isn't good enough to say he is a Matthews or a Point or X, but he does need top players with him and on the 2nd line. Then we will see his true potential.

I can say he is a major talent and is fun to watch.

 

[hamzarocks]

People mature at different ages. Your whole premise is off. Nate Mackinnon is a top 3 player in the league. He didn’t show it until he was 22.

Mackinnon is a level below Crosby/OV/Mcdavid as a prospect and likely for his career legacy as well

If bedard takes that long to get to that level than yeah he will be an elite franchise player and all-time great but he wont be a top 7/8 player all time likely

 

[Crow]

I don't think Bedard is really that much better of a skater than Matthews. Their NHL edge numbers suggest that their speed is pretty much on par.

The biggest difference between the two is how often Matthews gets to the net vs Bedard, who was confined to the perimeter for most of this past year.

Also Bedard projects to be a much better playmaker than Matthews, worse defensively/physically, and probably a step down goal scoring wise. I don’t really find them very comparable at all.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't think Bedard is really that much better of a skater than Matthews. Their NHL edge numbers suggest that their speed is pretty much on par.

The biggest difference between the two is how often Matthews gets to the net vs Bedard, who was confined to the perimeter for most of this past year.

Yeah, I think a major part of that is the main things I outlined. Matthews strength on the puck is just absolutely ridiculous when combined with his hands and shot release. Yes, he can stand there like a sniper from the top of the circle, snap off a wrister with insane accuracy and power, but a lot more of his goals come from just his ability to get into good spots with those tools and get off a powerful shot from awkward release points that disguise the shot for goalies.