When will a tournament be won by a non-top-7 team?

[Canuckistani]

Even though blowouts have never been as infrequent and many teams (Switzerland, Latvia, France, Denmark, etc) can be competitive with the top-7, we still don't expect any given event to be won by anyone other than Canada, Russia, USA, Sweden, Finland, Czech Rep and Slovakia.

Clearly Switzerland is the prime candidate to break the status quo, having made great leaps in recent years and coming close at the 2013 WHC, in addition to 4th place finishes in 1992 and 1998. Germany in 2010 and Belarus at the 2002 Olympics are the only others. At the junior level only the Swiss have come close - bronze in 1998, and 4th in 2002 and 2010.

But we still seem to be a few years away from one of the minows of hockey actually pulling off a gold medal.

To put it in perspective, for much of the 1970s and 80s Finland and the USA were basically where Switzerland is today - still usually losing but pulling off the odd final-four appearence. USA's win in 1980 was a massive upset, and they didn't win a senior medal again until the 1991 Canada Cup. Finland's first big achievement at the senior level was silver at the 1988 Olympics, before firmly establishming themselves as medal threat at the 1992 WHC.

So Switzerland is probably.....5 years away?

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[1Gold Standard]

Even though blowouts have never been as infrequent and many teams (Switzerland, Latvia, France, Denmark, etc) can be competitive with the top-7, we still don't expect any given event to be won by anyone other than Canada, Russia, USA, Sweden, Finland, Czech Rep and Slovakia.

Clearly Switzerland is the prime candidate to break the status quo, having made great leaps in recent years and coming close at the 2013 WHC, in addition to 4th place finishes in 1992 and 1998. Germany in 2010 and Belarus at the 2002 Olympics are the only others. At the junior level only the Swiss have come close - bronze in 1998, and 4th in 2002 and 2010.

But we still seem to be a few years away from one of the minows of hockey actually pulling off a gold medal.

To put it in perspective, for much of the 1970s and 80s Finland and the USA were basically where Switzerland is today - still usually losing but pulling off the odd final-four appearence. USA's win in 1980 was a massive upset, and they didn't win a senior medal again until the 1991 Canada Cup. Finland's first big achievement at the senior level was silver at the 1988 Olympics, before firmly establishming themselves as medal threat at the 1992 WHC.

So Switzerland is probably.....5 years away?

1996 World Cup.

but in answer to your question. at a true best on best I wouldn't bet on any team not from the traditional top 7 winning anything in the foreseeable
future.

 

[garbageteam]

Winning? No time in the forseeable future.

Medaling i.e. Bronze/Silver? Switzerland has done it at the WHC and WJC so it could happen at one of the next few Olympics (assuming NHLers continue going, otherwise it's moot and not best on best). Germany has some good prospects coming up but it's still a long shot, although they placed as high as 4th in their own hosted WHC. Those two are probably the closest.

 

[Hasa92]

About 8 years back in time i thought Switzerland would have already won it by now, and they did get really close in 2013. So i think Switzerland has the best change and could do it even right now.

But that's only for the WHC not an actual best on best... which i think they have a slight change in the 2018 Olympics but there is good 6 teams i expect to be better than them. Then again i'm not sure if Switzerland counts cause i expect the Swiss to overthrow Slovakia from the 7th. Spot.