What is the Main Reason for the Losing Streak

[johnnyonthspot]

I really want to know what the consensus is on this slide. We all have an opinion from travel to injury to the weather

Cast your vote!

 

[jetsmooseice]

This won't be a popular answer, but here goes anyway.

Fatigue/injuries/time zones etc. all play a role in it, but I'd say the chief reason is that the team just isn't as great as their record would suggest.

This is still very much the team that got dismantled with ease by Colorado back in April. A good team should be able to withstand an injury or two, a tough road trip, etc. without skidding into a losing streak.

I was hoping that they progressed beyond that, but it's clear now they haven't. Not to say they're a bad team because they're not. But maybe they are still pretty mid, as the kids would say.

 

[Gm0ney]

The Jets weren't as good as their record, but they're probably not as bad as this slump, either.

Problem 1: The Jets were never dominant in 5v5 shot metrics, but all their offensive shot metrics have gotten worse over the last 10 games: 6 fewer shots/60 plus a 3% drop in SH% means -1.33 goals scored per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time.

Problem 2: The powerplay was unsustainably effective over their first 16 games, shooting 27.5% with approximately league average powerplay shot metrics. The last 10 games the powerplay has dried up, shooting 14.3% with bottom-5 shot metrics (58.5 shots/60 before vs. 37.0 now). That adds up to 11 fewer goals/60 on the powerplay.

Causes? I think a lot of it is regression to what the underlying numbers indicated, combined with injuries and fatigue. Just a psychological snowball effect...their good luck dried up right when the schedule got tough and they started to battle injuries.

 

[RabidOne]

Injuries, fatigue, travel schedule and regression to who they actually are.
I guess they still finish top
10 in the league and top 5 in the West.

 

[macmaroon]

My GDTs. Has to be...

 

[Buffdog]

The Jets weren't as good as their record, but they're probably not as bad Causes? I think a lot of it is regression to what the underlying numbers indicated, combined with injuries and fatigue. Just a psychological snowball effect...their good luck dried up right when the schedule got tough and they started to battle injuries.

Man, it's wasn't even going to bring this up considering how I've been mocked by some posters for suggesting that travel and workload could affect a team's performance (and that's just objectively and scientifically true)...

But there is a psychological component to losing streaks and dry spells. Players go from everything they touch going into the net to not being able to buy a goal. They start to grip the stick tighter. Instead of playing to win, they play to not f*** up (it's not the same). Pressure mounts as the losses and goose eggs accumulate and it only gets worse. It's a viscous cycle

 

[Jets 31]

My GDTs. Has to be...

If the Jets worked as hard as you do we would be undefeated , well maybe 1 loss .

 

[Buffdog]

If the Jets worked as hard as you do we would be undefeated , well maybe 1 loss .

I think that "GDTs do not contain enough bounciness" should be a poll option since CLEARLY that's why the Jets aren't playing well

 

[Hobble]

The Jets are an exceptional team when they play perfectly.

Problem is that they are one key injury away from not being perfect.

 

[imec]

First of all, I no NOTHING about hockey - never played it and only took an interest in it when the Jets came back.

I voted "Something else". And I believe that "something else" is a (temporary?) loss of confidence.

I say this because of a simple (layman's) observation. During the winning streak, I was noticing that shots were coming off of sticks without hesitation. It was as if the player had planned the shot before the puck even touched their stick. I'm now noticing a slight but significant hesitation on a very high number of shots - leaving just enough time for a defenseman to intervene or a goalie to get into position. The result is clearly represented in shot stats.

Again, I'm not seriously knowledgeable about the game but, thanks for letting me voice my opinion and I'm more than happy to be corrected/schooled.

 

[Bender Duster]

I was looking for the 'all of the above' option.

 

[Jets 31]

First of all, I no NOTHING about hockey - never played it and only took an interest in it when the Jets came back.

I voted "Something else". And I believe that "something else" is a (temporary?) loss of confidence.

I say this because of a simple (layman's) observation. During the winning streak, I was noticing that shots were coming off of sticks without hesitation. It was as if the player had planned the shot before the puck even touched their stick. I'm now noticing a slight but significant hesitation on a very high number of shots - leaving just enough time for a defenseman to intervene or a goalie to get into position. The result is clearly represented in shot stats.

Again, I'm not seriously knowledgeable about the game but, thanks for letting me voice my opinion and I'm more than happy to be corrected/schooled.

You are right, usually people say the players are squeezing their sticks too hard which means basically what you said. I think they are too right now but it comes more from being mentally and physically tired. Jets need a homestand with some practices and i think it will turn back around.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

It's because I haven't been locking myself in the bathroom during games.

Sorry I let everyone down. Our record just went into the toilet.

 

[tbcwpg]

It's no one thing. I don't know why we have to boil it down to one reason. In many losing streaks it's often a combination of factors.

Injuries don't help. The travel doesn't help. The snowball effect of losing doesn't help. You can say other teams deal with that, and while true, it's difficult to deal with all of those at once.

People sneer at the travel excuse but in the past 3 weeks they've basically been on the road the entire time. There was one home game mixed in and then back out for another 6. Even now, they're on a plane to Buffalo after a quick stop at home and then they're in Chicago less than 48 hours later. They've gone from one coast to the other. They're tied with NJ for the most games away from home with 15. It does factor in.

 

[hockeyarena]

Same thing it is every annual winter choke. They're pouting about the weather and lifestyle. Connor's play yesterday was almost Dubois pout level constantly throwing the puck away and making lazy plays.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

The Jets weren't as good as their record, but they're probably not as bad as this slump, either.

Problem 1: The Jets were never dominant in 5v5 shot metrics, but all their offensive shot metrics have gotten worse over the last 10 games: 6 fewer shots/60 plus a 3% drop in SH% means -1.33 goals scored per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time.

Problem 2: The powerplay was unsustainably effective over their first 16 games, shooting 27.5% with approximately league average powerplay shot metrics. The last 10 games the powerplay has dried up, shooting 14.3% with bottom-5 shot metrics (58.5 shots/60 before vs. 37.0 now). That adds up to 11 fewer goals/60 on the powerplay.

Causes? I think a lot of it is regression to what the underlying numbers indicated, combined with injuries and fatigue. Just a psychological snowball effect...their good luck dried up right when the schedule got tough and they started to battle injuries.

thanks for adding in the numbers I was never a huge analytics guy but this really exposes who the Jets are and the puck luck they had going 16-1

First of all, I no NOTHING about hockey - never played it and only took an interest in it when the Jets came back.

I voted "Something else". And I believe that "something else" is a (temporary?) loss of confidence.

I say this because of a simple (layman's) observation. During the winning streak, I was noticing that shots were coming off of sticks without hesitation. It was as if the player had planned the shot before the puck even touched their stick. I'm now noticing a slight but significant hesitation on a very high number of shots - leaving just enough time for a defenseman to intervene or a goalie to get into position. The result is clearly represented in shot stats.

Again, I'm not seriously knowledgeable about the game but, thanks for letting me voice my opinion and I'm more than happy to be corrected/schooled.

Great answer . The coach alluded to the shot attempts in the post game presser as in they are being too fancy and not taking enough shots so you know more than you think!

 

[SUX2BU]

I blame jetson for not going to the can

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This won't be a popular answer, but here goes anyway.

Fatigue/injuries/time zones etc. all play a role in it, but I'd say the chief reason is that the team just isn't as great as their record would suggest.

This is still very much the team that got dismantled with ease by Colorado back in April. A good team should be able to withstand an injury or two, a tough road trip, etc. without skidding into a losing streak.

I was hoping that they progressed beyond that, but it's clear now they haven't. Not to say they're a bad team because they're not. But maybe they are still pretty mid, as the kids would say.

I don't think anyone would disagree that they are not as good as a 17-3 record would suggest. But they aren't as bad as 3-7 in the last 10 either.

I truly hate to use the schedule as an excuse but this is an epic road trip. 3 road games followed by just 1 at home and then back on the road for 6 more. Those 6 were particularly widely spaced. Then 1 game at home again followed by 2 more on the road. They are just tired. Add to that 2 key players injured during that time span and it is just a little too much. They are a tired, beat up team. There have been some questionable lineup decisions made which may have contributed a bit too.

Also look at the 4 consecutive losses. Started with a truly awful performance, the first really bad game of the season. The next 2 were played pretty well and could easily have gone the other way. The last was another truly awful game.

I forget which team it was. Maybe one of the Fla teams, NYI? But a few years ago there was a good team whose arena wasn't available at the start of the season. So they started with something like 15 straight road games. It seemed to affect them. They got off to a horrible start and had to climb out of a hole. I don't remember how they finished either, but it was a lot better than that start. I do remember it being an Eastern team so the travel wasn't even as tough as Jets have had lately.

I think the question now needs to be, how well will Jets reset after they get home?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

First of all, I no NOTHING about hockey - never played it and only took an interest in it when the Jets came back.

I voted "Something else". And I believe that "something else" is a (temporary?) loss of confidence.

I say this because of a simple (layman's) observation. During the winning streak, I was noticing that shots were coming off of sticks without hesitation. It was as if the player had planned the shot before the puck even touched their stick. I'm now noticing a slight but significant hesitation on a very high number of shots - leaving just enough time for a defenseman to intervene or a goalie to get into position. The result is clearly represented in shot stats.

Again, I'm not seriously knowledgeable about the game but, thanks for letting me voice my opinion and I'm more than happy to be corrected/schooled.

The same hesitation is there on passes. Probably on other less obvious things too.

 

[Larabee]

No production from the top line. Schiefele and Connor are subject to horrific slumps

 

[tbcwpg]

I don't think anyone would disagree that they are not as good as a 17-3 record would suggest. But they aren't as bad as 3-7 in the last 10 either.

I truly hate to use the schedule as an excuse but this is an epic road trip. 3 road games followed by just 1 at home and then back on the road for 6 more. Those 6 were particularly widely spaced. Then 1 game at home again followed by 2 more on the road. They are just tired. Add to that 2 key players injured during that time span and it is just a little too much. They are a tired, beat up team. There have been some questionable lineup decisions made which may have contributed a bit too.

Also look at the 4 consecutive losses. Started with a truly awful performance, the first really bad game of the season. The next 2 were played pretty well and could easily have gone the other way. The last was another truly awful game.

I forget which team it was. Maybe one of the Fla teams, NYI? But a few years ago there was a good team whose arena wasn't available at the start of the season. So they started with something like 15 straight road games. It seemed to affect them. They got off to a horrible start and had to climb out of a hole. I don't remember how they finished either, but it was a lot better than that start. I do remember it being an Eastern team so the travel wasn't even as tough as Jets have had lately.

I think the question now needs to be, how well will Jets reset after they get home?

The Islanders new arena wasn't ready to start the 2021/22 season, they started with 13 on the road. Ended up with 84 points and out of the playoffs by a wide margin. They went 5-8 on that trip but they weren't a great team to begin with that season.

 

[Eyeseeing]

They aren’t as good as their record.
I was pleasantly surprised at the start but not shocked at where we are sitting either.
We had a few close games early where we won in overtime which is awesome.
In the preseason prediction thread I figured 92-95 points would be where we would end up and it looking pretty good for that to happen.
This team still lives and dies on Helle’s shoulders and it’s been this way for years.
There’s something about this club and its inability to find that extra gear???
We are still trotting out guys we KNOW aren’t good, and not playing others who MIGHT be able to improve or at least won’t be any worse.
Last game Lambert got a few negative comments, like let’s give him a chance before we get overly critical.
I’m not at all an Oilers fan but I admire the remarkable turnaround with last season.
Yes they have 2 of the best players but they started crappy with those 2 same players.

 

[GJF]

A combination of all of the above.

I think by now, arriving in early December, it is safe to say what we basically knew all along: this team isn't a 17-3 record team. And why would they be? Look at their roster - that is a roster of an above average team that can get hot when they play well and get the goaltending numbers while playing a favorable schedule. And that's what happend. Every year there are 1 or 2 teams that get hot right at the start of the season. Last year it was the Canucks. But no team in this league is that much better than the rest of the league to go 0.80% winning percentage for more than 15-20 games. There is just too much adversity and bad things will happen, it is just a matter of time when.

By now, these bad things are here: fatigue, injuries, a bit of a confidence loss, lineup changes which some players need to adapt to because some role changes and also statistical regression as our stats were always pointing at playing a game that, to this degree, wouldn't be sustainable (especially shooting-%).

This is why you need to enjoy these positive stretches while they last and why you shouldn't panic or give too much weight into negatives stretches either.

The season is still months to go until the actualy show time arrives.