What happens to Gibson if Andersen keeps rollin????

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sowcufucakky
Jun 6, 2010
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Freddie is already on his bridge contract. He'll be a year away from unrestricted free agency when his contract expires with arbitration rights. Murray will have to pay him comparable to those other goalies or he'll walk, it's that simple. And he if amasses close to 90 career wins by the time this deal expires he'll have earned it. You can discount wins all you want but that matters a great deal. But he also has a career .921 save percentage and 2.26 goals-against. Those numbers are fantastic and if maintains them that will be more enough to earn that money.

But how can you say giving a goalie a huge, long-term contract doesn't make him the guy?

"Freddie we're so happy with how well you've played these three years we want to make you one of the highest paid goalies in the league. Buuuuut, Gibby is still gunning for your job so I hope you don't mind sharing the net."

That's ridiculous.

He didn't say that. He said that Andersen's numbers are nowhere near as good as the guys you were talking about, and he's correct. Unless he manages what Crawford did (and unlike Chicago at that time, we have a competent backup in the system), he hasn't earned a huge salary.
 

Vipers31

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Freddie is already on his bridge contract.
Not for that level, no. Not like Bobrovsky's bridge deal I was alluding to. Freddi is on his "hey, you're now a backup" deal. I don't think we'll jump the "hey, you're now a good starter" deal and straight go to the "hey, you're now a top level starter" deal - which he really hasn't earned.

Murray will have to pay him comparable to those other goalies or he'll walk, it's that simple.
Not really. Just because you consider them comparable doesn't make them. I don't think there's GMs around that would just pay him according to those comparables, either.

And he if amasses close to 90 career wins by the time this deal expires he'll have earned it. You can discount wins all you want but that matters a great deal. But he also has a career .921 save percentage and 2.26 goals-against. Those numbers are fantastic and if maintains them that will be more enough to earn that money.
I don't believe the wins matter "a great deal", at all, and neither does GAA, another pure team stat. Sure, a > .920 SV% would help make a case, but he's even this season not on course towards maintaining that. This year's SV% is nice, but really just a bit above average for a starter. And that's another stat that the team helps. I don't think those numbers earn him that money, at all, at least not when he's done it once or twice (if he repeats it next year).

But how can you say giving a goalie a huge, long-term contract doesn't make him the guy?

"Freddie we're so happy with how well you've played these three years we want to make you one of the highest paid goalies in the league. Buuuuut, Gibby is still gunning for your job so I hope you don't mind sharing the net."

That's ridiculous.
I find the notion that he's earning to be "one of the highest paid goalies in the league" to be the only thing ridiculous there. Still facing competition and having to live up to a contract after you earned it is really a basic reality and a part of the job description for a goalie. Or mostly any player.
 

TheJoeMan

In Bob We Trust
Not for that level, no. Not like Bobrovsky's bridge deal I was alluding to. Freddi is on his "hey, you're now a backup" deal. I don't think we'll jump the "hey, you're now a good starter" deal and straight go to the "hey, you're now a top level starter" deal - which he really hasn't earned.


Not really. Just because you consider them comparable doesn't make them. I don't think there's GMs around that would just pay him according to those comparables, either.


I don't believe the wins matter "a great deal", at all, and neither does GAA, another pure team stat. Sure, a > .920 SV% would help make a case, but he's even this season not on course towards maintaining that. This year's SV% is nice, but really just a bit above average for a starter. And that's another stat that the team helps. I don't think those numbers earn him that money, at all, at least not when he's done it once or twice (if he repeats it next year).


I find the notion that he's earning to be "one of the highest paid goalies in the league" to be the only thing ridiculous there. Still facing competition and having to live up to a contract after you earned it is really a basic reality and a part of the job description for a goalie. Or mostly any player.

If by next summer he has over 90 wins, over .920 save percentage and a goals-against between 2.20-2.30 he absolutely will get paid. There's no two ways about it. If he was only 22 and had several restricted years left I'd say he'd make a lot less. But he'll be 26 when his deal is up. Anything longer than a one-year deal would be buying up UFA years.

Also you seem to discount ALL of the important goaltending stats. What stats do you consider meaningful? I think you're completely off-base dismissing wins like that. If Freddie's goals-against and save percentage were worse I'd say sure, his team simply outscores their opponents by a wide margin. But this season has been proof of the opposite. I mean, do you think Freddie is just an average goalie on an exceptional team? If that's the case trade him right now. Teams would pay through the nose to have Freddie as they're goalie right now. If we can win with an average goalie might as well roll with Bryz or let Gibson take the wheel.
 

Skinnyjimmy08

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If by next summer he has over 90 wins, over .920 save percentage and a goals-against between 2.20-2.30 he absolutely will get paid. There's no two ways about it. If he was only 22 and had several restricted years left I'd say he'd make a lot less. But he'll be 26 when his deal is up. Anything longer than a one-year deal would be buying up UFA years.

Also you seem to discount ALL of the important goaltending stats. What stats do you consider meaningful? I think you're completely off-base dismissing wins like that. If Freddie's goals-against and save percentage were worse I'd say sure, his team simply outscores their opponents by a wide margin. But this season has been proof of the opposite. I mean, do you think Freddie is just an average goalie on an exceptional team? If that's the case trade him right now. Teams would pay through the nose to have Freddie as they're goalie right now. If we can win with an average goalie might as well roll with Bryz or let Gibson take the wheel.

You are bang on
 

Vipers31

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If by next summer he has over 90 wins, over .920 save percentage and a goals-against between 2.20-2.30 he absolutely will get paid. There's no two ways about it. If he was only 22 and had several restricted years left I'd say he'd make a lot less. But he'll be 26 when his deal is up. Anything longer than a one-year deal would be buying up UFA years.
I think the situation is relatively close to Bobrovsky's situation, in terms of contract situation and age. Just that the season that lead to Bob getting $5.6M/2yrs being better than Andersen's current season.

Also you seem to discount ALL of the important goaltending stats. What stats do you consider meaningful?
Wins and GAA aren't even goaltending statistics. Both are pure team stats. The fact that people tagged those things "goaltending statistics" due to a lack of other metrics doesn't change that. SV% is somewhat meaningful, not completely pointless like wins/GAA. But even SV% is heavily impacted. This is hardly groundbreaking news.

I think you're completely off-base dismissing wins like that. If Freddie's goals-against and save percentage were worse I'd say sure, his team simply outscores their opponents by a wide margin. But this season has been proof of the opposite.
Huh? Being on a good team makes you rack up wins and keep a low GAA, itself. The SV% as the only actual goaltending metric is slightly above average. There's nothing too shocking in the coexistence of these exact numbers.

I mean, do you think Freddie is just an average goalie on an exceptional team?
He's an above average NHL starter at this point, but not by too far. Probably in the 10-12 range for goalies.

If that's the case trade him right now. Teams would pay through the nose to have Freddie as they're goalie right now.
I doubt that too many teams would pay "through the nose". Nor do I think it's worth it for us to trade him now.

If we can win with an average goalie might as well roll with Bryz or let Gibson take the wheel.
Neither are average NHL starters, at this point.
 

KingJoffrey

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He's an above average NHL starter at this point, but not by too far. Probably in the 10-12 range for goalies.

If he remains that way till end of next season he will get a good pay day, but I'm sure that we all hope he will grow to be better than just a above average starter.
 

PCDiesel

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Jun 17, 2011
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I think Freddie has played well. He has had some great games and mediocre games. Last year Hiller played well until towards the end of the season (Ducks were doing well, close to the top of the league if not at the top) and Freddie played well, but nothing that screams "great" from Freddie. Nothing about his play screams "long term starter" right now. Gibson will need a fair evaluation before they decide who will be 1A/1B long term or who ends up packing (towards the end of next year if not later).

People need to also look on how the team responds to the goalies that they are playing for. Last year the team felt hopeless with Hiller in net towards the remainder of the season. The felt comfortable with Freddie in net, and with Gibson in net they played better defensively except for game 7. It is still to early to tell without seeing Gibson in a consistent NHL games that Freddie is the answer and vise versa. Only time will tell, but I think Gibson will thrive if he isn't injury prone, which worries me a great deal. I think Gibson has the potential to steal more games than Freddie when the Ducks have an off night, but thats just my opinion. This is a great problem to have for a team until there is a goaltender controversy in the playoffs.
 

TheJoeMan

In Bob We Trust
I think the situation is relatively close to Bobrovsky's situation, in terms of contract situation and age. Just that the season that lead to Bob getting $5.6M/2yrs being better than Andersen's current season.


Wins and GAA aren't even goaltending statistics. Both are pure team stats. The fact that people tagged those things "goaltending statistics" due to a lack of other metrics doesn't change that. SV% is somewhat meaningful, not completely pointless like wins/GAA. But even SV% is heavily impacted. This is hardly groundbreaking news.


Huh? Being on a good team makes you rack up wins and keep a low GAA, itself. The SV% as the only actual goaltending metric is slightly above average. There's nothing too shocking in the coexistence of these exact numbers.


He's an above average NHL starter at this point, but not by too far. Probably in the 10-12 range for goalies.


I doubt that too many teams would pay "through the nose". Nor do I think it's worth it for us to trade him now.


Neither are average NHL starters, at this point.

What stats do you look at to judge a goalie then? Wins and goals-against are PURELY a team stat? So by that rationale LaBarbera and Bryzgalov should have EXACTLY the same stats as Freddie. By what means do you measure Freddie being in the 10-12 range of starting goalies? Eye test? Do you watch every single minute of every single goalie? There's a reason why we give weight to stats. Your argument is completely asinine.
 

AngelDuck

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I have a hard time believing there are 10 goalies that have been better than Andersen this year.

Rinne
Price
Varlamov
Rask(?)
Holtby
MAF (?)
Lundqvist

There are a lot of guys that are putting up almost identical stats to him this year...Crawford, Luongo, Schnieder, Jimmy Howard

But I think you can say he's very much been a top ten goalie this year...especially considering the workload he's getting (on pace for 73 games)
 

Paul4587

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Bobrovsky signed his deal right after a Vezina didn't he? Or was it the year before he signed. Because a Vezina significantly changes ones leverage.

And to answer TJM - goalie stats are very much a function of a team but if you're going to use anything save % is the most accurate stat.
 

Paul4587

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Jan 26, 2006
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I have a hard time believing there are 10 goalies that have been better than Andersen this year.

Rinne
Price
Varlamov
Rask(?)
Holtby
MAF (?)
Lundqvist

There are a lot of guys that are putting up almost identical stats to him this year...Crawford, Luongo, Schnieder, Jimmy Howard

But I think you can say he's very much been a top ten goalie this year...especially considering the workload he's getting (on pace for 73 games)

I'd say he's in the 10-12 range if we're strictly speaking about this season. Outside of the Ducks I see far more Eastern games so I might be a bit biased towards Eastern goalies but this is how I rank them this season:

Rinne
Price
Holtby
Anderson
Luongo
Varlamov
Fleury
Schneider
Lundqvist
Halak (stats are really misleading here)

He's in around the likes of Crawford, Rask and Howard IMO. You've also got guys like Hutchinson and Elliott who look good (Elliott tends to always have good regular season efforts though) but you can't really trust the sample size.
 

Ducks DVM

sowcufucakky
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What stats do you look at to judge a goalie then? Wins and goals-against are PURELY a team stat? So by that rationale LaBarbera and Bryzgalov should have EXACTLY the same stats as Freddie. By what means do you measure Freddie being in the 10-12 range of starting goalies? Eye test? Do you watch every single minute of every single goalie? There's a reason why we give weight to stats. Your argument is completely asinine.

If wins aren't a team stat then LaBarbera is far and away our best goaltender with his 2-0-1 record and should be our starter. You might want to be careful how you characterize people's arguments.

A goalie can't EVER win a game. All they can do is not lose one. It's a team stat.
 

Vipers31

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What stats do you look at to judge a goalie then?
Ideally, I don't, because stat scouting is rather entirely impossible for goalies.

Wins and goals-against are PURELY a team stat? So by that rationale LaBarbera and Bryzgalov should have EXACTLY the same stats as Freddie.
You got me. "Purely" was not literally the right term. The goalie still factors in, but is a minor part. It does tend to show when there's non-NHL goalies there. (Not even that regularly, though.) For comparisions of goalies on different teams, it's entirely useless.

By what means do you measure Freddie being in the 10-12 range of starting goalies? Eye test? Do you watch every single minute of every single goalie?
Yes, the eye test is more valuable for goalies than stats are. If you don't like that, okay. It's inconvenient, I know. But that's the way it is. You don't need to watch every minute of every single goalie. Just like you don't need to watch every minute of every shift that Getzlaf, Malkin, Staal or Bozak take to tell who has which abilities.

There's a reason why we give weight to stats.
Sure. The reason being not having another way. People tend to do it because they aren't goaltenders and/or can't evaluate their specific abilities/strengths. There's no shame in that. There's NHL coaches that will gladly admit they don't know the position well enough to say much about them and let their goalie coaches handle all goaltending decisions.
 
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TheJoeMan

In Bob We Trust
Ideally, I don't, because stat scouting is rather entirely impossible for goalies.


You got me. "Purely" was not literally the right term. The goalie still factors in, but is a minor part. It does tend to show when there's non-NHL goalies there. (Not even that regularly, though.) For comparisions of goalies on different teams, it's entirely useless.


Yes, the eye test is more valuable for goalies than stats are. If you don't like that, okay. It's inconvenient, I know. But that's the way it is. You don't need to watch every minute of every single goalie. Just like you don't need to watch every minute of every shift that Getzlaf, Malkin, Staal or Bozak take to tell who has which abilities.


Sure. The reason being not having another way. People tend to do it because they aren't goaltenders and/or can't evaluate their specific abilities/strengths. There's no shame in that. There's NHL coaches that will gladly admit they don't know the position well enough to say much about them and let their goalie coaches handle all goaltending decisions.

Bolded for emphasis. No reason to continue this bat-**** crazy debate. Why need goalies at all? Might as well go with my wife's theory when Hiller was still here and just put a recliner in the crease. Unreal.
 

TheJoeMan

In Bob We Trust
Bobrovsky signed his deal right after a Vezina didn't he? Or was it the year before he signed. Because a Vezina significantly changes ones leverage.

And to answer TJM - goalie stats are very much a function of a team but if you're going to use anything save % is the most accurate stat.

I won't deny that save percentage is the stat that is the most telling for a goalie but you can't possibly subscribe to Viper's ridiculous claim that the goalie is only a minor component to goals-against and wins can you? If that's the case why is Martin Brodeur being so celebrated today? I mean wins are very much a measurement of team success but a team can't have success without good goaltending. The only way to not correlate wins and the individual goaltender's success is if his save percentage and/or goals-against are low suggesting they are winning despite the goalie. Or if the team plays a suffocating defensive style. None of those things apply to this team. Freddie's are very much an accurate depiction of his accomplishments this season.
 

Dr Johnny Fever

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I've always been on board that stats aren't the be all and end all to any player's value. But as long as they exist, agents will use them to their advantage. If Freddie continues playing as well as he has for the remainder of this season and into next, he is going to be looking at a big ($5M+AAV) contract. His age and proximity to ufa status will be the reason. That and those stats that may be "team" stats but still get compensated for in contract negotiations.
 

Vipers31

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Bolded for emphasis. No reason to continue this bat-**** crazy debate. Why need goalies at all? Might as well go with my wife's theory when Hiller was still here and just put a recliner in the crease. Unreal.

What's actually crazy is that this is all pretty basic stuff. I'm pretty shocked any of this is news to a fine regular user.

Yes, goalies are a minor factor for GAA and wins. The other 19 players combined mean much, much more for those numbers than one goalie, who faces what the guys in front of him go through. Most years you'll have some distinctly average goalies near the league lead in GAA, because they are on strong defensive teams. That doesn't mean goalies aren't important (and the mere notion that I, of all people, would have to mention that baffles me) or even crucial. Just that those particular stats are a result of a process that the entire team is a part of. I can't really remember ever being in a position where I had to 'downplay' the importance of goaltending, but yes, they aren't the most driving factors begind those two stats.
 

TheJoeMan

In Bob We Trust
What's actually crazy is that this is all pretty basic stuff. I'm pretty shocked any of this is news to a fine regular user.

Yes, goalies are a minor factor for GAA and wins. The other 19 players combined mean much, much more for those numbers than one goalie, who faces what the guys in front of him go through. Most years you'll have some distinctly average goalies near the league lead in GAA, because they are on strong defensive teams. That doesn't mean goalies aren't important (and the mere notion that I, of all people, would have to mention that baffles me) or even crucial. Just that those particular stats are a result of a process that the entire team is a part of. I can't really remember ever being in a position where I had to 'downplay' the importance of goaltending, but yes, they aren't the most driving factors begind those two stats.

You won't find a coach, GM or player around the league who would agree with you that the goalie has a "minor" part in the team's goals-against and wins. That is flat-out nonsense. So when a team is playing great and the goalie gives up a bad goal that's more on the players? When a team is playing like crap but the goalie only gives up a goal or gets a shutout the players should get all the credit? This is what you're suggesting. I'm not saying those numbers reflect completely on the goaltenders but they sure as hell have a lot more than a minor bit to do with them.

This isn't regular stuff, it's nonsense. It's news to me you believe all of this but this definitely not the common consensus on those stats.
 

Ducks DVM

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You won't find a coach, GM or player around the league who would agree with you that the goalie has a "minor" part in the team's goals-against and wins. That is flat-out nonsense. So when a team is playing great and the goalie gives up a bad goal that's more on the players? When a team is playing like crap but the goalie only gives up a goal or gets a shutout the players should get all the credit? This is what you're suggesting. I'm not saying those numbers reflect completely on the goaltenders but they sure as hell have a lot more than a minor bit to do with them.

This isn't regular stuff, it's nonsense. It's news to me you believe all of this but this definitely not the common consensus on those stats.

It's common consensus that wins are a team stat.

Want to disagree? Explain to me how a goalie can WIN a game. Answer - they can't - zero goals = a loss every single time in this day and age. Goalies can lose games, and they can give their team a chance to win, but they can't win a game. Period.

(The one exception being if a team at the end of the season MUST get two points to remain in playoff contention and has pulled their goalie in a tie game, and the opposition goalie scores. I'm nearly 100% certain that has never happened)
 

Vipers31

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You won't find a coach, GM or player around the league who would agree with you that the goalie has a "minor" part in the team's goals-against and wins.
They wouldn't say it like that, because it would sound derogatory. But yeah, looking at the entire picture of a complete team, the vast majority of GMs, coaches and players know that. Not minor compared to a 4th line player individually, or even an individual 2nd pairing defender, but in contrast to an entire damn group of skaters - you bet it's minor.

So when a team is playing great and the goalie gives up a bad goal that's more on the players? When a team is playing like crap but the goalie only gives up a goal or gets a shutout the players should get all the credit? This is what you're suggesting.
It really isn't remotely what I'm suggesting. Nothing I said has that as a necessary consequence. Goalies can still be better and worse. They're just not the primary factor for the range of the GAA. An NHL starting goaltender doesn't and cannot give up so many soft goals or stop so many high-percentage chances that he comes close to negating an entire team being either very good or very bad defensively. That's all it takes. And it's really obvious.

I'm not saying those numbers reflect completely on the goaltenders but they sure as hell have a lot more than a minor bit to do with them.
Compaired to the entire group in front of them? It certainly is minor. Just look at last year's leaders in the GAA category with at least a bunch of games played. Do you think Cam Talbot, Martin Jones or Alex Stalock were elite players? Or even Brian Elliott or Corey Crawford? They aren't. They played on good defensive teams, and in case of the backups likely got a few favourable matchups. But they were clearly not driving their factors in how their teams did. Those backups did even better than their unanimously superior starters. A guy like Ryan Miller on the other hand, who was playing out of his mind before the trade for an incredibly bad defensive team in Buffalo had a stunning SV% then, but that couldn't nearly translate into a halfway decent GAA due to the team.

I don't know what fraction you are looking for to be so up in arms against goalies being a "minor" part to their GAA. They're clearly not neglectible. But they aren't the driving factor by any stretch of the imagination. Two top level defensemen will usually do more for a team's GAA than a goalie can. Not to mention an outstanding defensive system like Hitchcock's or Tippett's, which have regularly catapulted non-top-level netminders to top-level-GAAs.
 

goosemooseduck

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Mar 19, 2009
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The Ducks didn't sign Bryz and put Gibson in the minors for the sake of making sure they don't have to protect him due to a hypothetical expansion draft. That's complete nonsense. The best I can figure is they signed Bryz because Freddie has been amazing this season plus they were concerned about Gibson's durability. I'm sure they didn't trouble themselves with the notion of potentially exposing him to an expansion draft that at best is a couple years away. If there is expansion and they go by the rules used in the last draft than players exempt are any players in their first or second pro years which means Gibson already doesn't qualify by season's end. Plus you were able to protect two goalies if you wanted to.

IIRC, Bryz was signed because both Gibson and LaBarbera were injured at about the same time.

The only reason why Gibson is still in the minors is because BM would look like an idiot for another failed reclamation project and he already had one too many. So Bryz has to sit in NHL. :help:

On the bright side, we have obscene amount of (overpaid) 4th liners and so many 7-8 pairing Dmen we could field our own league.

Watch BM pulling the strings but come out empty handed at the deadline yet again, then making trades for even more depth players to save his face.

Comedy central...
 

mightyquack

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IIRC, Bryz was signed because both Gibson and LaBarbera were injured at about the same time.

The only reason why Gibson is still in the minors is because BM would look like an idiot for another failed reclamation project and he already had one too many. So Bryz has to sit in NHL. :help:

On the bright side, we have obscene amount of (overpaid) 4th liners and so many 7-8 pairing Dmen we could field our own league.

Watch BM pulling the strings but come out empty handed at the deadline yet again, then making trades for even more depth players to save his face.

Comedy central...

Or it could be that Gibson has only managed 13 (4 NHL/9 AHL) games in over 3 months of hockey and has barely managed to string 3 games together without getting injured or sick.

Gibson has to first get some gametime at AHL level and stay healthy before Anaheim can think of calling him up, and they certainly have to be careful with him and try to wreck his groin by the age of 22 given how many injuries he's had in his young career.

I certainly hope he can get going this season as he'll be an upgrade over Bryz at NHL level IMO, but as said caution is the key word with Gibson at this stage. And no, Bryz's contract won't stop a call up either.

But hey, continue grinding that axe.
 
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goosemooseduck

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Mar 19, 2009
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Or it could be that Gibson has only managed 13 (4 NHL/9 AHL) games in over 3 months of hockey and has barely managed to string 3 games together without getting injured or sick.
Gibson has to first get some gametime at AHL level and stay healthy before Anaheim can think of calling him up, and they certainly have to be careful with him and try to wreck his groin by the age of 22 given how many injuries he's had in his young career.

C'mon, October injury put him out until the end of year, early January he tried a few but wasn't 100% then sat out another 2 weeks.
He's playing again and he can't play every game, there are more goalies down there and less games.

You making him look like Mr. Glass.



But hey, continue grinding that axe.

If you haven't noticed, I wasn't quite serious.

Except the stuff about BM and his signings this season.
Hell, if he continues that way I'll need spare axe, most likely two. :naughty:
 

Paul4587

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Jan 26, 2006
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You making him look like Mr. Glass.

As much as I hate to say it, Gibson has been made of glass so far in his young career. I really hope he can stay healthy for sustained periods as he will be one hell of a goalie if he can.
 

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