Speculation: What does Kyle Dubas do with less than 7 million dollars?

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I don't think It's going to be less than 7 million by the time free agency hits.

I fully expect Holl, Kerfoot and Mrazek to be gone
Holl and Mrazek yes, Kerfoot no. I think unless they can find a player like Kerfoot who can PK and play up and down the lineup for less then 3m then they will be keeping him around. He’s an effective Swiss army knfie. Not sure why he gets a bad rap around here.

I think it’ll be around 12m by the time we go into the draft/free agency.
 
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Don't you think it's time to prove the amateur scouting is good enough?

I don't think 1st. round picks is where it is proven.
Whether through the draft or free agent amateurs they need to be in the line-up now.
Leafs amateur scouts are going to have to prove they're better than other teams, however with one hand tied behind their backs essentially.

Leafs only made 3 picks total in 2021 (2nd, 5th and 6th) and only have 3 picks in 2022 1st, 3rd ( recaptured by trading Dermott) and 7th.

The NHL hands each NHL team 7 free picks each year 1 per round, so that makes a minimum selection for amateur scouts of 2 seasons = 14 selections to hit upon.

Traded away picks = zero success rate to hit on so that = 8 lost of 14 potential made = 57% automatic busts.

Leafs are now left with only 6 possible surviving picks of 14 = 43% max possible. [The NHL overall % on a strong draft = 2 successful of 7 picks, which usually includes our 1st rounder as one].

While I agree 100% with your notion of restocking the Leafs with youth on ELC contract's and nobody says "play the kids" more than I do :wg: .. However its pretty tough for Leafs amateur scouts to make successful selections if you don't have the picks to make them with, because NO NHL team will make less sections then our Leafs in 2021& 2022 combined. :)
 
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It's funny how people will twist themselves into pretzels to defend Dubas

The regular season is the only thing that matters but we're a better team then Florida because we lost to Tampa in more games then them.

We're also better then Tampa despite losing to them and trailing by multiple goals in game 5/6/7 because Holl decided to make one of the dumbest plays in playoff history. So we really scored two goals that game and it's really 2-2 and we're still playing hockey.

The rangers and avs took a 2-0 lead on Tampa but that doesn't count because the rangers have a good goalie and the avs play in the west so in reality we're the cup champs and Dubas should have a statue
 
This is cause for concern. If we're building the marlies or minor teams, then A+, they can correctly identify players who will be good among their peers at that level.

So far they get F+ to identify NHL players that will do well among their peers, more important middle class versus middle class in playoffs. The big 4 and Rielly was given for free (99% agree Tavares doesn't depend on GM, this is his home).

So lets see if the amateur translates well to nhl when it's time to make the jump.

It simply takes years to evaluate amateur drafts and # of picks and draft positions need to be taken into account.

The amateur scouting was garbage under Hunter and for graduating players we're still paying for his incompetence. If you want to blame the amateur scouting, blame the Lou regime.

So far under Dubas and I can't stress enough where the picks were taken:
2018 - Sandin at 29 and Durzi at 52. Two NHL Dmen with realistic second pairing upside. How do they get anything but an A+? What team did better?

Robertson (21), Niemela (20), Knies (19) are all legit prospects who were taken between the 53rd and 64th picks. Who are these teams or players graduating to the NHL from the 2019 - 2021 drafts with picks taken outside the first round and already making impacts? Name one player taken after the 50th pick from any of the last 3 draft who has made an NHL impact so far. Stumped?
 
I’m a bit more confident in the youth. I see Robbie as being ready to go.
Steeves too, produced well at the AHL level, and not a kid.
Joey Anderson has put in his time.
Pontus Holmberg has excelled in the SEL.
I think all of them are plug n play ready to go. It’s a tough call giving kids a big role on a strong team though.

Plug and play is an insane assumption considering holmberg has played 6 games on north American ice and the rest have looked below average any time we give them the opportunity
 
Don't you think it's time to prove the amateur scouting is good enough?

I don't think 1st. round picks is where it is proven.
Whether through the draft or free agent amateurs they need to be in the line-up now.
Don't you think it takes patience to develop players? Don't you think Robertson, Niemela, Knies are trending in the right direction? How are Sandin and Durzi not great picks.

Let's play a game called you list the players taken in 2018 - 2022 drafts outside of the top 25 picks who've made an NHL impact.
 
Holl and Mrazek yes, Kerfoot no. I think unless they can find a player like Kerfoot who can PK and play up and down the lineup for less then 3m then they will be keeping him around. He’s an effective Swiss army knfie. Not sure why he gets a bad rap around here.

I think it’ll be around 12m by the time we go into the draft/free agency.

Cogliano can play on out 4th line and PK and for around $1m.
 
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I think his shopping list fairly aparent:

list of priorities
1. goaltending (trade or UFA)
2. RFAs (Kase, Engvall, Sandin)
3. forwards (UFA or trade)
4. defense (possibly move out Holl/Sandin/Muzzin)

If he can move 1 or 2 bodies out (Holl, Kerfoot, *Nylander, *Tavares, Muzzin, etc.) he might have more flexibility to balance the team.

*unlikely Nylander/Tavares moves. KD would be making his boldest moves to date if he moved either player.

What do you think will happen with the little cap space Dubas has?

:leafs
WHY DO YOU PEOPLE KEEP TRYING TO MOVE NYLANDER?

Seriously... what?
 
Cogliano is a warrior and a hometown boy. Would love to have him. Just hope he has a few miles left on him at 35.

Still has speed. Perhaps they should give Spezza the assignment to bring him here.

WHY DO YOU PEOPLE KEEP TRYING TO MOVE NYLANDER?

Seriously... what?

Likely because if they want to make a core change, he is at the bottom of the food chain.
 
Toronto had stingier defense last year than Carolina did when Mrazek was with them, and Mrazek was also good in Detroit.

Holl is much better than a #7, and he played because he deserved to.

Liljegren was better than Holl. It wasn't close.

Holl is overpaid and should be traded to clear cap space for a goalie.

The leafs defence isn't stingier than Carolina. Freddy's numbers were substantially better in Carolina because the high danger scoring chances were way down.
 
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Leafs amateur scouts are going to have to prove their better than other teams, however with one hand tied behind their backs essentially.

Leafs only made 3 picks total in 2021 (2nd, 5th and 6th) and only have 3 picks in 2022 1st, 3rd ( recaptured by trading Dermott) and 7th.

The NHL hands each NHL team 7 free picks each year 1 per round, so that makes a minimum selection for amateur scouts of 2 seasons = 14 selections to hit upon.

Traded away picks = zero success rate to hit on so that = 8 lost of 14 potential made = 57% automatic busts.

Leafs are now left with only 6 possible surviving picks of 14 = 43% max possible. [The NHL overall % on a strong draft = 2 successful of 7 picks, which usually includes our 1st rounder as one].

While I agree 100% with your notion of restocking the Leafs with youth on ELC contract's and nobody says "play the kids" more than I do :wg: .. However its pretty tough for Leafs amateur scouts to make successful selections if you don't have the picks to make them with, because NO NHL team will make less sections then our Leafs in 2021& 2022 combined. :)

It is time to put some youth, whether through the draft, free agents juniors signed after draft day, college free agent signings, acquired via trades ... in the line-up with ELC type deals.

If there is nothing in the system you can do that with that is a failure.

The coach does have to have the gonads to play them though!

...

34 picks between 2017-2018, so 8.25 per year.

2017 -Liljegren
2018 - Durzi (LA), Sandin
2019 - Abruzzese, Robertson
2020 -

The 3 picks they had last year aren't relevant to this year, however they might hit 2 out of the 3 there.

2017 -Don't see anything else coming from the 7 picks in 2017.
2018 - Holmberg this year?
2019 - Abruzzese and Robertson ... some hope?

2016 out of scope, but it looks decent.
 
It simply takes years to evaluate amateur drafts and # of picks and draft positions need to be taken into account.

The amateur scouting was garbage under Hunter and for graduating players we're still paying for his incompetence. If you want to blame the amateur scouting, blame the Lou regime.

So far under Dubas and I can't stress enough where the picks were taken:
2018 - Sandin at 29 and Durzi at 52. Two NHL Dmen with realistic second pairing upside. How do they get anything but an A+? What team did better?

Robertson (21), Niemela (20), Knies (19) are all legit prospects who were taken between the 53rd and 64th picks. Who are these teams or players graduating to the NHL from the 2019 - 2021 drafts with picks taken outside the first round and already making impacts? Name one player taken after the 50th pick from any of the last 3 draft who has made an NHL impact so far. Stumped?

I'm including all assets, not just the draft.

They've signed juniors after the draft, in the window where they can sign undrafted juniors in the summer.
Players/prospects they've acquired via trade.
Players they've signed out of college.

Their drafts have been okay, maybe not as good as 2006-2013 ish period.
 
Top targets should be
Fleury
Nichushkin
Blackwood/Desmith

If we move kerfoot, Holl, and Mrazek we can fit all 3 as well as sign Sandin, Engvall and add two fourth liners at 1 mill each.

Bunting Matthews Marner
Nuke Tavares Nylander
Robertson Kampf Engvall
Zar Cogliano Anderson

Reilly Liljegren
Muzzin Brodie
Sandin Gio

Fleury
Blackwood/Desmith
 
Liljegren was better than Holl.
That's debatable, and would say more about Liljegren than Holl. What's not debatable is that Holl was at least better than Lyubushkin, and deserved to be in the lineup.
Holl is overpaid and should be traded to clear cap space for a goalie.
While trading him due to our depth in the position may be a good idea, he is not overpaid in the slightest.
The leafs defence isn't stingier than Carolina.
Yes, it was.
Freddy's numbers were substantially better in Carolina because the high danger scoring chances were way down.
Andersen's numbers were significantly better this year because Andersen played significantly better this year. Not because he was on Carolina. For the record, Carolina allowed the 13th least high danger chances per 60 this year. They were middle-of-the-pack in that regard. Toronto allowed the 10th least (which is also where we ranked over the last 2 years Andersen was here). Carolina during the years Mrazek was there was 21st. Carolina is decent at limiting shots, but the shots they do allow are above average quality.
 
That's debatable, and would say more about Liljegren than Holl. What's not debatable is that Holl was at least better than Lyubushkin, and deserved to be in the lineup.

While trading him due to our depth in the position may be a good idea, he is not overpaid in the slightest.

Yes, it was.

Andersen's numbers were significantly better this year because Andersen played significantly better this year. Not because he was on Carolina. For the record, Carolina allowed the 13th least high danger chances per 60 this year. They were middle-of-the-pack in that regard. Toronto allowed the 10th least (which is also where we ranked over the last 2 years Andersen was here). Carolina during the years Mrazek was there was 21st. Carolina is decent at limiting shots, but the shots they do allow are above average quality.

It's a shocker that we have 8 great defensemen are the most elite team in every aspect of hockey yet can never win the presidents trophy or a playoff round

If Carolina makes every goalie "play better" then they're obviously doing something defensive system wise to help them out.

Mrazek just decided to be worse for Detroit, us and Philly as well.

Same with nadelkavic, Freddy, raanta etc.

If Holl was really that great of a value contract there would have been teams lining up to pick him up at the deadline and he wouldn't have been scratched to start the playoffs
 
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Still has speed. Perhaps they should give Spezza the assignment to bring him here.



Likely because if they want to make a core change, he is at the bottom of the food chain.
That and because I wouldn’t want to negotiate with him UFA. Also, for a core that can’t progress, we don’t need their individual salaries to keep rising. We are now paying Rielly 2 million more and haven’t made it anywhere.

Also, for the the guys you do plan to keep Matthews/Marner, it would be smart to get a alternate core piece, and pay that piece less for term. When Matthews/Marner make 13/14 and 12? the other piece can make 5/6 for 6 years. More for team.
Commit to 2 forwards, commit to a goalie, and find a solid D + Rielly as the new core.
 
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That and because I wouldn’t want to negotiate with him UFA. Also, for a core that can’t nshecsny progress, we don’t need their individual salaries to keep rising. We are now paying Rielly 2 million more and haven’t made it anywhere.

Also, for the the guys you do plan to keep Matthews/Marner, it would be smart to get a alternate core piece, and pay that piece less for term. When Matthews/Marner make 13/14 and 12? the other piece can make 5/6 for 6 years. More for team.
Commit to 2 forwards, commit to a goalie, and find a solid D + Rielly as the new core.
But we have a GM who is willing to "stake his career" on his core. 4 years in a row out in the first round (6 in total), and he still won't budge. Not enough evidence that his cap allocation just isn't working it seems.
 
It simply takes years to evaluate amateur drafts and # of picks and draft positions need to be taken into account.

The amateur scouting was garbage under Hunter and for graduating players we're still paying for his incompetence. If you want to blame the amateur scouting, blame the Lou regime.

So far under Dubas and I can't stress enough where the picks were taken:
2018 - Sandin at 29 and Durzi at 52. Two NHL Dmen with realistic second pairing upside. How do they get anything but an A+? What team did better?

Robertson (21), Niemela (20), Knies (19) are all legit prospects who were taken between the 53rd and 64th picks. Who are these teams or players graduating to the NHL from the 2019 - 2021 drafts with picks taken outside the first round and already making impacts? Name one player taken after the 50th pick from any of the last 3 draft who has made an NHL impact so far. Stumped?
In one single post you said "It simply takes years to evaluate amateur drafts" and "Robertson (21), Niemela (20), Knies (19) are all legit prospects who were taken between the 53rd and 64th picks"

Seems like you've not waited the required time to make that judgement.
 
They actually do hand out a trophy for being the top team in the regular season, but that's besides the point. We're not talking about trophies. We're not talking about what you want more. We're not talking about the end goal. We're not talking about what people remember. We're simply talking about team quality. That is just undeniably better represented by results over an 82-game sample and 6+ month time period against a multitude of common teams than it is by results over a 4-7 game sample and 2-week time period against a singular unique team.

Though again, we were the better playoff team too anyway.

Yeah, but we didn't win the Presidents Trophy either... and yes, I am talking about trophies, but not expected ones.
 
It's a shocker that we have 8 great defensemen are the most elite team in every aspect of hockey yet can never win the presidents trophy or a playoff round
We're not the most elite team in every aspect of hockey, but we are an excellent team, much like the team we unfortunately faced in the 1st round. I probably wouldn't classify every single one of our defensemen last year as "great", but we did have 8 NHL defensemen, and that was part of why we ended up as the 3rd best defensive team last year. No matter how good your offense and defense are though, its hard to win a President's trophy with the 8th worst goaltending in the league.
If Carolina makes every goalie "play better"
They don't.
Mrazek just decided to be worse for Detroit, us and Philly as well.
That's not even true. Mrazek had good seasons in Detroit. And he only played 20 games in Toronto and 17 games in Philly. In fact, the only season of real note for Mrazek in Carolina is 12 games in 2021, so not sure what you're even talking about.
Same with nadelkavic, Freddy, raanta etc.
Except again, that's not true.
Andersen had a great season early on with us too, even when we were a complete tire fire defensively.
Raanta has played 28 games and hasn't been particularly special in Carolina. He has literally had better seasons for every other team he's been on - Chicago, New York, and Arizona.
Nedeljkovic only played 23 games in Carolina. That's like saying that Carolina sucks defensively because Reimer had a bad 22 games that year.
If Holl was really that great of a value contract there would have been teams lining up to pick him up at the deadline and he wouldn't have been scratched to start the playoffs
We weren't interested in trading him going into the deadline. We had uncertainty in the health of Muzzin and Sandin, we had uncertainty in how two new additions (Giordano, Lyubushkin) would fit in, we were lining up for a playoff run and didn't need his cap space, and Holl was playing well with us. Holl played 5 of the 7 playoff games.
 
Yeah, but we didn't win the Presidents Trophy either... and yes, I am talking about trophies
No, we didn't win the President's trophy, but I'm not sure why that's relevant. Only 1 team does. I'm also not sure why you're talking about trophies in reply to me talking about team quality.
 
No, we didn't win the President's trophy, but I'm not sure why that's relevant. Only 1 team does. I'm also not sure why you're talking about trophies in reply to me talking about team quality.

So let me try to recap.

You think the regular season is the best benchmark for team quality and future predictor of team success, so the Stanley Cup and winning rounds isn't that important.

You cited that there actually is a trophy for regular season success, because it's a big accomplishment.

You think winning the Presidents Trophy isn't relevant when talking about regular season success, because we didn't win it.

In summary, being the best team in the playoffs or regular season, as confirmed by a trophy, is not relevant when determining team quality. Sounds like you've attained hockey nirvana state.
 
But we have a GM who is willing to "stake his career" on his core. 4 years in a row out in the first round (6 in total), and he still won't budge. Not enough evidence that his cap allocation just isn't working it seems.

I wish Dubas didn't dial up the rhetoric like that, should be more about constant evaluation and building the best program possible with resources at hand, and keep the messaging generic. The Leafs success isn't about your career or any individual player or group of players. He doesn't get it.
 
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