Tribute What a Change to our D Corps

[BertCorbeau]

As much as the Boosh has meshed with Rielly, I do think you’re right, it should be between Holl or The Boosh on the #6 spot. I prefer The Booshkin.

Yeah it’s a tough call. I would keep Holl in because he and Muzzin have chemistry together… and while Muzz-Lyub would be a physical pairing, they would also be tough moving the puck around.

 

[inthe6ix]

Yeah it’s a tough call. I would keep Holl in because he and Muzzin have chemistry together… and while Muzz-Lyub would be a physical pairing, they would also be tough moving the puck around.

+1

Rielly/Boosh
TJ/Gio
Muzz/Holl

 

[zeke]

Pairings since Boosh trade - defense only


Goals Against Per 60 (min 50min)

1. Ras-Boosh 2.13
2. Gio-Lilly 2.25
3. TJ-Holl 2.38
4. Mo-TJ 2.61
5. Mo-Boosh 3.62
6. Mo-Lilly 7.29


Expected Goals against

1. Gio-Lilly 0.97
2. Ras-Boosh 1.45
3. TJ-Holl 2.06
4. Mo-TJ 2.20
5. Mo-Boosh 2.38
6. Mo-Lilly 2.64

 

[kb]

IMO Liljegren won't be the one sitting out.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

As much as the Boosh has meshed with Rielly, I do think you’re right, it should be between Holl or The Boosh on the #6 spot. I prefer The Booshkin.

Liljegren was actually better with Rielly in almost every metric compared to Boosh. The goaltending was horrid while they were together though.

When Keefe had the Rielly-Liljegren pair matched up with the Matthews line they were unstoppable offensively 5 on 5.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Pairings since Boosh trade - defense only


Goals Against Per 60 (min 50min)

1. Ras-Boosh 2.13
2. Gio-Lilly 2.25
3. TJ-Holl 2.38
4. Mo-TJ 2.61
5. Mo-Boosh 3.62
6. Mo-Lilly 7.29


Expected Goals against

1. Gio-Lilly 0.97
2. Ras-Boosh 1.45
3. TJ-Holl 2.06
4. Mo-TJ 2.20
5. Mo-Boosh 2.38
6. Mo-Lilly 2.64

lol @ the actual goals against vs expected for the Rielly-Liljegren pair.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

IMO Liljegren won't be the one sitting out.

Shouldn't be, I just don't see how he isn't with how Keefe has taken to Boosh and Holl

 

[TGB]

But will we be able to retain this D core, I wonder? Aren't a lot of these guys on expiring contracts? And Giordano is 38 years old.

lol @ the actual goals against vs expected for the Rielly-Liljegren pair.

This is why I wonder why so many people put so much stock into predictive metrics. The people over in the Blue Jays thread go gaga over ZiP predictions even though they're just overfitted data and aren't much use.

 

[Leafidelity]

I think if Liljegren continues to play like he has, he'll force some uncomfortable decisions for the opening night playoff roster

 

[zeke]

lol @ the actual goals against vs expected for the Rielly-Liljegren pair.

What's crazy I'd that they scored even more than they gave up!

 

[zeke]

This is why I wonder why so many people put so much stock into predictive metrics. The people over in the Blue Jays thread go gaga over ZiP predictions even though they're just overfitted data and aren't much use.

Or you could learn from the numbers and have realized that the talking heads blaming Lilly for all those goals against were fools, and then wouldn't be surprised at all that his goals against have dried up since, and you wouldnt be scrambling to claim that Lilly had suddenly drastically improved his play like all those talking heads are right now.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

What's crazy I'd that they scored even more than they gave up!

Yea with the Matthews line they were crazy good offensively 5 on 5.

 

[thusk]

To keep a lead or in a late tie game like less than 10 Minute remaining or OT, who giving leafs the best chance to win? Thats the question.

Liljegren looking great in a limited 6th dman role by playing 14-15min/game vs holl whos playing very good in a top 4 role playing around 19-20 minutes and who are the def with most defensive start.

I just dont know how liljegren can be in front of holl right now

 

[Teeder Keon]

I think Ulf means Niemela

You mean Consuela the housekeeper ?

 

[zeke]

I clean now?

 

[zeke]

To keep a lead or in a late tie game like less than 10 Minute remaining or OT, who giving leafs the best chance to win? Thats the question.

Liljegren looking great in a limited 6th dman role by playing 14-15min/game vs holl whos playing very good in a top 4 role playing around 19-20 minutes and who are the def with most defensive start.

I just dont know how liljegren can be in front of holl right now

The answer is Boosh.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

To keep a lead or in a late tie game like less than 10 Minute remaining or OT, who giving leafs the best chance to win? Thats the question.

Liljegren looking great in a limited 6th dman role by playing 14-15min/game vs holl whos playing very good in a top 4 role playing around 19-20 minutes and who are the def with most defensive start.

I just dont know how liljegren can be in front of holl right now

Liljegren has been great 5 on 5 regardless of whether he has been on the 3rd pair or not.

Playing your best players give you the best chance to win. He's our best RHD right now.

 

[TGB]

Or you could learn from the numbers and have realized that the talking heads blaming Lilly for all those goals against were fools, and then wouldn't be surprised at all that his goals against have dried up since, and you wouldnt be scrambling to claim that Lilly had suddenly drastically improved his play like all those talking heads are right now.

LOL! Mega reading comprehension fail!

I literally said nothing about Lilly, goals against, or anything related to what you're talking about now. I was talking about the over reliance on predictive models, something I know how to avoid since I'm a REAL data analyst. Couldn't you tell I wasn't on that subject when I asked about keeping the core together?

So, the next time you try to patronize someone, let alone me of all people, just remember: read, think, comprehend, THEN type! Maybe reread, too.

 

[zeke]

LOL! Mega reading comprehension fail!

I literally said nothing about Lilly, goals against, or anything related to what you're talking about now. I was talking about the over reliance on predictive models, something I know how to avoid since I'm a REAL data analyst unlike the lot of you.

Looking and learning from a discrepancy between goals and xgoals is not overreliance in any way.

 

[thusk]

Liljegren has been great 5 on 5 regardless of whether he has been on the 3rd pair or not.

Playing your best players give you the best chance to win. He's our best RHD right now.

Im agree you need tonplay your best player but hes not the best RD hes just the d who got the easiest matchup. if you thinking playing a 3rd pair role and a top 4 its the same, its not even close. Playing like 30% of the time against top 60 and 70 % against bottom 6 its not the same of playing 70% of the time against top 6 and 30?% against bottom 6.

Keefe put liljegren in kind of situation he know he will be good, he protected him from situation he know he will struggle by reducing those kind of situation as much of possible. So yes in a context he will be very well framed, he will look very good. Thats dont make him best RD just the most protected one...

 

[TGB]

Looking and learning from a discrepancy between goals and xgoals is not overreliance in any way.

lol He still thinks I'm talking about Lilly.

What? No apology for your screw up? Forgot your big boy pants at home?

 

[zeke]

What? No apology for your screw up? Forgot your big boy pants at home?

Sorry - apologize for what now exactly?

Replying directly to your general broadside against analytics with a specific concrete example relevant to this thread?

 

[Stephen]

One of the big reasons why smaller market teams like Nashville and Columbus invest heavily on the blueline is that a few relatively important defensemen on the blueline can make a big difference on the team. You only dress 6 guys back there and having 3-4 quality players and some depth infill goes a very long way to defining the team and creating that backbone more so than building out a stellar top six or top nine forward group. Up until the Jones/Nurse/Werenski pay days defensemen also didn't cost as much.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Im agree you need tonplay your best player but hes not the best RD hes just the d who got the easiest matchup. if you thinking playing a 3rd pair role and a top 4 its the same, its not even close. Playing like 30% of the time against top 60 and 70 % against bottom 6 its not the same of playing 70% of the time against top 6 and 30?% against bottom 6.

Keefe put liljegren in kind of situation he know he will be good, he protected him from situation he know he will struggle by reducing those kind of situation as much of possible. So yes in a context he will be very well framed, he will look very good. Thats dont make him best RD just the most protected one...

Except Liljegren has excelled when elevated into those top 4 spots and made his partners better in the process. He can handle the role, we just have to play him there. No other RD has had the impact to our LD that he has.

Dermott was able to dominate bottom pairing matchups, but struggled to handle elevated roles. This type of player is where you have to be careful as you mentioned above.

 

[Stephen]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

D-core Dubas Inherited​

[/TD]

[TD]

D-core now​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1. Rielly
2. Gardiner
3. Zaitsev
4. Dermott
5. Hainsey
6. Polak
7. Carrick
8. Borgman

[/TD]

[TD]

1. Rielly
2. Brodie
3. Giordano
4. Holl
5. Sandin
6. Liljegren
7. Lyubushkin
8. Muzzin

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

There's also some serviceable depth guys too - Kral, Hollowell, Dahlstrom, Duszak.

He doesn't get nearly enough credit for the job he's done completely revamping that blueline.

Well, Holl and Liljegren were technically "inherited" from the previous regime. And he has gone through 4 years of iterative defensive building, some good some bad.