Of course there will be players taken later that end up better than players taken earlier, but that is a form of ex post analysis that does not apply on draft day.
I’m not sure of you quite grasp the nature of a post-hoc argument, because this certainly isn’t one. In fact it cannot be one because we don’t even know the draft results yet, let alone which players work out and which ones do not.
The higher the draft position, the better the player Chevy is able to get based on his analysis, a priori.
What you should look at is how likely a prospect is to become a good NHL player. Trying to pick the “best†player is a fool’s errand because even #1 overall hardly ever becomes the best player drafted. If you get a good player you should be happy and if they are doing their homework the Jets
should be able to get a good player. Drafting the right players and developing them properly is something you can control, you can’t control the lottery results. Successful managers, regardless of field, focus on the things they can control, and in this case getting a good player with the #6 pick is controllable getting the top pick isn’t.
Also consider. If the Jets are bad when they run out their young players it’s a pretty good indicator those young players are not as talented as we would how, so even if we get that top pick we are in Oiler territory where we don’t have the other pieces to actually win. If the young players do play well and win, there is still a chance at that lottery win and the probability of getting a good young player.
The 1OA pick is akin to having lotto max as your retirement play. Sure it’s good to how for but it’s much better to depend on things you can actually control.