I have to admit, I'm no statistician and I get that espn and other win probability simulators are based on repeated sims, but I'm finding them kind of fascinating (maybe more fascinating than today's game). I have the game on my phone and espn in the background. Bills get 1st down, probability of win switches to 51% Buffalo, fail on 1st down, goes back to NE, punt, goes to 57% NE (Bills had downed it near 1) and all of a sudden it just went to Buffalo 60% (not sure why, I closed the game for a minute while I type this). Maybe there was a turnover or something while I was typing (ok, I saw the score changed to 16-14 on espn while I am still typing).