GKJ
Global Moderator
- Feb 27, 2002
- 193,256
- 43,647
With 2 weeks to go in the regular season, there certainly is more discourse around who is and is not in the right spot for the Expanded College Football Playoff, but the discussion seems much more constructive when we're talking about team #12 instead of team #4, right? How many SEC teams can avoid their Conference Championship Game is one of the topics of the week. The #1 team remains Oregon but they are on a bye, with a spot in the Big Ten Championship on lock.
As usual, MACtion isn't giving us much other than betting opportunities and background noise in case you're not watching hockey. Fox College Football Friday doesn't offer much else, but 4-6 Michigan State is only favored by 13.5 at home to Purdue.
FS1 After Dark has #24 UNLV, who are 8-2, but do not control their destiny within the Mountain West. They do play at San Jose State who were valiant against Boise State last week. UNLV -7.
Huge stakes, probably, still at play within the Top 5. Both Big Noon Kickoff and College GameDay will again be on the same scene, this time in Columbus. A great chance that a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game is on the line when #5 Indiana (!!) most likely is playing the biggest game in program history, and can send a real shot across the bow of the Big Ten that they are serious about being a real player and using NIL to raise their profile. A win at #2 Ohio State will go a long way toward doing that. They are the one of three undefeated teams remaining in FBS. People are saying all they have to do is play Ohio State close enough, and they will be in the Expanded College Football Playoff. Probably something only said because they are Indiana, and not an A program like a Michigan, or even a B+ one like Penn State. But signing Curt Cignetti to a big extension is signaling their intentions. The line has moved up from 11.5 to 13.5 in favor of Ohio State. I think the whole free world outside of the state of Ohio is pulling for the Hoosiers. I am not an Ohio State hater, but college football rarely gets new shooters like this, and it would be fun to see the chain broken.
ABC has #9 Ole Miss at Florida. DJ Lagway hasn't been a great quarterback, but Florida has warmed to the task a bit since he has taken the reigns, especially after beating LSU last week, calling Brian Kelly's future into question. Ole Miss is part of the many machinations at for what is currently an absurd 4-way tie for third place in the SEC, knowing that the two teams ahead of them still have to play each other. They beat Georgia by 3 scores, a game clearly holding the Dawgs back in the rankings. But they're also a team that lost to Kentucky at home.
#8 Miami is the top ranked ACC team, but they do not control their destiny within the conference, I think? I've never seen how the tie breaker there works, they are listed third behind Clemson, who is done with their conference schedule. They host 4-6 Wake Forest, who look like they can score points against not the greatest defenses. The O/U is 64.5, Miami favored by 24.
The team in first place in the ACC is a debutante. #13 SMU has not lost within the ACC, and they're not ahead of BYU who they lost to. So, they are in control of their destiny for the bye Expanded College Football Playoff. This week they go to 5-5 Virginia, who got a backdoor cover on Notre Dame last week, but they beat Pitt when Pitt was undefeated. SMU -9.5
If you're wondering about #10 Georgia and #11 Tennessee, both are huge favorites to 2-8 non-power teams. Georgia hosts UMass, and Tennessee hosts UTEP. Georgia is done with their SEC schedule.
#3 Texas does not have a fake opponent, even though Kentucky is 4-6. Kentucky has been a opponent that's played up to better opponents, while Texas has often played down for a few years now. Kentucky lost 13-12 to Georgia, beat Ole Miss on the road, and covered at Tennesse. But also gave up 48 to Florida and lost at home to Auburn and Vanderbilt and have only won the one conference game. Texas -20.5
CBS is at Minnesota who are 6-4, they host #4 Penn State who need help to make the Big Ten Championship Game, or just not lose and get the home playoff game. Minnesota won 4 in a row before losing to Rutgers last week.
Not to be out done by the Big Ten, it's a huge game in the Big 12, at 3:30 on ESPN. Three teams control their destiny to win the conference, and #14 BYU and #21 Arizona State are two of them, and they play each other down in Tempe. BYU took a huge spill in the rankings after almost losing to Utah, a loss at home to 4-6 Kansas has move them even behind SMU, whom they have beaten on their field. ASU has some out of nowhere - nobody has been talking about this team, but they are 8-2 and have won 5 of 6 to get into the rankings. Last week, they beat a ranked Kansas State. They are favored by 3 in this game.
A lot of folks now are willing to give Coach Prime and #16 Colorado their flowers for their season so far, and they also control their destiny within the Big 12, they get to visit same 4-6 Kansas team who in the last three weeks have beaten Kansas State, Iowa State, and BYU. They underachieved earlier in the season, but the Jayhawk team we've seen recently looks much more like the one that the AP had ranked to start the season. The Buffs need to tread carefully, they are only favored by 3.
Someone's gonna have to tell me the last time that New York City hosted a huge college football game. #19 Army and #6 Notre Dame play probably the biggest game in series history since the 1946 Game of the Century that ended in a scoreless tie. The greatest mystery of the season so far remains that of Notre Dame's home loss to Northern Illinois, which the committee has largely forgiven by now the way things have worked out, but it may not be the case if they lose to Army (or next week to USC). Army is still undefeated at 9-0, and already have a spot in the American Championship Game, but a win here would have their sights still set on the Expanded College Football Playoff if things break their way in the Mountain West. Army also had been beating the wheels of teams most of the season, but their offense has been slowed down by Air Force and North Texas, so it will take a big defensive effort here Notre Dame, who is favored by 14.5 (down from 17). This is technically a home game for Notre Dame, so NBC will carry it.
#12 Boise State, as of now, currently sit in a bye position in the Expanded College Football Playoff Bracket as the 4th highest projected conference winner. They are locked in to the Mountain West Championship Game as they are undefeated in the conference, have beaten UNLV, and their game against Wyoming is their last one.
#7 Alabama has the SEC on ABC Prime Time slot as they make a trip to Oklahoma, a game that had much more panache around it, but Oklahoma's maiden voyage in the SEC hasn't gone nearly as well as Texas'.
#15 Texas A&M has already been caught looking ahead to next week's Lone Star Showdown, if Mike Elko's press conference is any indication. I don't think anyone truly believes in aTm based on their quarterback play, but they hold their own cards as well. If they win out, they win the SEC and the bye. Next week's game is already selected for Prime Time, and looks like the Game of the Week. They are on the road at Auburn, and is clearly a trap game as they're only favored by 2.5 despite Auburn only being 4-6. Last week they had the fake bye beating New Mexico State 38-3.
#22 Iowa State is not out of it in the Big 12, but they need a lot of help, and are not playing the right teams to do it. Their schedule did not have any of the top 3 teams on it, so their two losses have them in 4th, and hoping for a disaster scenario.
We have our first NBC Big Ten Saturday Night on After Dark, I guess Lorne Michaels ain't worried about SNL this week. It's the Victory Bell on the line, for the first time as a Big Ten game, but that's really the only stakes between USC and UCLA, played at the Rose Bowl. USC -4.5
There is a more important After Dark game, and it's within the Mountain West (and it's not Air Force at Nevada). We know that UNLV is ranked, but they do not control their destiny within the conference, nor getting another shot spoiling Boise State. Colorado State is 7-3, but they are 5-0 in the Mountain West. Obviously, they would not get into the Expanded College Football Playoff, but they can still win the conference, and they do not play UNLV. So, if they lose at Fresno State - and they are 3-point underdogs - not sure how the tiebreaker works, and thus who pulls ahead. Colorado State has only given up 74 points in conference games, by far the least in the Mountain West. Something to watch. Game is on CBSSN.
As usual, MACtion isn't giving us much other than betting opportunities and background noise in case you're not watching hockey. Fox College Football Friday doesn't offer much else, but 4-6 Michigan State is only favored by 13.5 at home to Purdue.
FS1 After Dark has #24 UNLV, who are 8-2, but do not control their destiny within the Mountain West. They do play at San Jose State who were valiant against Boise State last week. UNLV -7.
Huge stakes, probably, still at play within the Top 5. Both Big Noon Kickoff and College GameDay will again be on the same scene, this time in Columbus. A great chance that a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game is on the line when #5 Indiana (!!) most likely is playing the biggest game in program history, and can send a real shot across the bow of the Big Ten that they are serious about being a real player and using NIL to raise their profile. A win at #2 Ohio State will go a long way toward doing that. They are the one of three undefeated teams remaining in FBS. People are saying all they have to do is play Ohio State close enough, and they will be in the Expanded College Football Playoff. Probably something only said because they are Indiana, and not an A program like a Michigan, or even a B+ one like Penn State. But signing Curt Cignetti to a big extension is signaling their intentions. The line has moved up from 11.5 to 13.5 in favor of Ohio State. I think the whole free world outside of the state of Ohio is pulling for the Hoosiers. I am not an Ohio State hater, but college football rarely gets new shooters like this, and it would be fun to see the chain broken.
ABC has #9 Ole Miss at Florida. DJ Lagway hasn't been a great quarterback, but Florida has warmed to the task a bit since he has taken the reigns, especially after beating LSU last week, calling Brian Kelly's future into question. Ole Miss is part of the many machinations at for what is currently an absurd 4-way tie for third place in the SEC, knowing that the two teams ahead of them still have to play each other. They beat Georgia by 3 scores, a game clearly holding the Dawgs back in the rankings. But they're also a team that lost to Kentucky at home.
#8 Miami is the top ranked ACC team, but they do not control their destiny within the conference, I think? I've never seen how the tie breaker there works, they are listed third behind Clemson, who is done with their conference schedule. They host 4-6 Wake Forest, who look like they can score points against not the greatest defenses. The O/U is 64.5, Miami favored by 24.
The team in first place in the ACC is a debutante. #13 SMU has not lost within the ACC, and they're not ahead of BYU who they lost to. So, they are in control of their destiny for the bye Expanded College Football Playoff. This week they go to 5-5 Virginia, who got a backdoor cover on Notre Dame last week, but they beat Pitt when Pitt was undefeated. SMU -9.5
If you're wondering about #10 Georgia and #11 Tennessee, both are huge favorites to 2-8 non-power teams. Georgia hosts UMass, and Tennessee hosts UTEP. Georgia is done with their SEC schedule.
#3 Texas does not have a fake opponent, even though Kentucky is 4-6. Kentucky has been a opponent that's played up to better opponents, while Texas has often played down for a few years now. Kentucky lost 13-12 to Georgia, beat Ole Miss on the road, and covered at Tennesse. But also gave up 48 to Florida and lost at home to Auburn and Vanderbilt and have only won the one conference game. Texas -20.5
CBS is at Minnesota who are 6-4, they host #4 Penn State who need help to make the Big Ten Championship Game, or just not lose and get the home playoff game. Minnesota won 4 in a row before losing to Rutgers last week.
Not to be out done by the Big Ten, it's a huge game in the Big 12, at 3:30 on ESPN. Three teams control their destiny to win the conference, and #14 BYU and #21 Arizona State are two of them, and they play each other down in Tempe. BYU took a huge spill in the rankings after almost losing to Utah, a loss at home to 4-6 Kansas has move them even behind SMU, whom they have beaten on their field. ASU has some out of nowhere - nobody has been talking about this team, but they are 8-2 and have won 5 of 6 to get into the rankings. Last week, they beat a ranked Kansas State. They are favored by 3 in this game.
A lot of folks now are willing to give Coach Prime and #16 Colorado their flowers for their season so far, and they also control their destiny within the Big 12, they get to visit same 4-6 Kansas team who in the last three weeks have beaten Kansas State, Iowa State, and BYU. They underachieved earlier in the season, but the Jayhawk team we've seen recently looks much more like the one that the AP had ranked to start the season. The Buffs need to tread carefully, they are only favored by 3.
Someone's gonna have to tell me the last time that New York City hosted a huge college football game. #19 Army and #6 Notre Dame play probably the biggest game in series history since the 1946 Game of the Century that ended in a scoreless tie. The greatest mystery of the season so far remains that of Notre Dame's home loss to Northern Illinois, which the committee has largely forgiven by now the way things have worked out, but it may not be the case if they lose to Army (or next week to USC). Army is still undefeated at 9-0, and already have a spot in the American Championship Game, but a win here would have their sights still set on the Expanded College Football Playoff if things break their way in the Mountain West. Army also had been beating the wheels of teams most of the season, but their offense has been slowed down by Air Force and North Texas, so it will take a big defensive effort here Notre Dame, who is favored by 14.5 (down from 17). This is technically a home game for Notre Dame, so NBC will carry it.
#12 Boise State, as of now, currently sit in a bye position in the Expanded College Football Playoff Bracket as the 4th highest projected conference winner. They are locked in to the Mountain West Championship Game as they are undefeated in the conference, have beaten UNLV, and their game against Wyoming is their last one.
#7 Alabama has the SEC on ABC Prime Time slot as they make a trip to Oklahoma, a game that had much more panache around it, but Oklahoma's maiden voyage in the SEC hasn't gone nearly as well as Texas'.
#15 Texas A&M has already been caught looking ahead to next week's Lone Star Showdown, if Mike Elko's press conference is any indication. I don't think anyone truly believes in aTm based on their quarterback play, but they hold their own cards as well. If they win out, they win the SEC and the bye. Next week's game is already selected for Prime Time, and looks like the Game of the Week. They are on the road at Auburn, and is clearly a trap game as they're only favored by 2.5 despite Auburn only being 4-6. Last week they had the fake bye beating New Mexico State 38-3.
#22 Iowa State is not out of it in the Big 12, but they need a lot of help, and are not playing the right teams to do it. Their schedule did not have any of the top 3 teams on it, so their two losses have them in 4th, and hoping for a disaster scenario.
We have our first NBC Big Ten Saturday Night on After Dark, I guess Lorne Michaels ain't worried about SNL this week. It's the Victory Bell on the line, for the first time as a Big Ten game, but that's really the only stakes between USC and UCLA, played at the Rose Bowl. USC -4.5
There is a more important After Dark game, and it's within the Mountain West (and it's not Air Force at Nevada). We know that UNLV is ranked, but they do not control their destiny within the conference, nor getting another shot spoiling Boise State. Colorado State is 7-3, but they are 5-0 in the Mountain West. Obviously, they would not get into the Expanded College Football Playoff, but they can still win the conference, and they do not play UNLV. So, if they lose at Fresno State - and they are 3-point underdogs - not sure how the tiebreaker works, and thus who pulls ahead. Colorado State has only given up 74 points in conference games, by far the least in the Mountain West. Something to watch. Game is on CBSSN.
