Series Talk: WCSF: Colorado Avalanche (C3) vs Dallas Stars (C1) | Stars win 4-2

[littletonhockeycoach]

Tonight's game epitomizes the very definition of the term "must win".

 

[The Moops]

Can someone please make a GDT? I’d do it but I’m at work.

Oh no I hope that's not my music

 

[GeoRox89]

ForsbergAvs32 style poll (but wearing the No 2 choice since going with everyone’s choice didn’t work on that poll). Which jersey:

1) Forsberg 96 Home Starter Mesh
2) Sakic 96 Away Starter Mesh
3) Roy NHL2000 Pro Player Away
4) Landy RR1.0
5) Nuke 2022 Cup Away

Oh no I hope that's not my music

No. Where is that emergency fellow when you need him?

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

It's such a weird series. The Avs have mostly dominated 5v5 play but they're falling right in to the DeBoer trap and have haven't had a lead for a single second this series. Dallas is doing a very good job in keeping the Avs to the outside, making Oettinger's job easy, and capitalizing on the Avs mistakes. It's quite frustrating to watch.

I thought Colorado was easily the better team in game 1 but looked horrible in OT and, yeah, were lucky to win after Geogiev bailed them out big time before the Wood goal. In that sense the Avs are lucky it's not 0-3.

DeBoer is Bednar's kryptonite. I personally believe the Stars have already won this series mainly because I don't believe the Avs [Bednar] are capable of changing their game plan enough to respond to how Dallas is neutralizing their offense.

But if the Avs want any chance, tonight is a must-win. But even then, in a best of three, Dallas has home ice I think they take it easily. Bednar has shown too many times, with too many teams, he can't beat Deboer's system.

I'm thinking Bednar subscribes to the James T Kirk method of propulsion...

Scotty: "Cap'n the engines can't go any faster...!"
Kirk: "Scotty, Find a way! I need more speed"
Scotty: "Aye Cap'n"

 

[The Moops]

Can someone please make a GDT? I’d do it but I’m at work.

ForsbergAvs32 style poll (but wearing the No 2 choice since going with everyone’s choice didn’t work on that poll). Which jersey:

1) Forsberg 96 Home Starter Mesh
2) Sakic 96 Away Starter Mesh
3) Roy NHL2000 Pro Player Away
4) Landy RR1.0
5) Nuke 2022 Cup Away


No. Where is that emergency fellow when you need him?

Actually I have an idea and an hour until my next meeting. Imma do it

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

The Avs big stars will have to demonstrate they are willing to chip and chase with Dallas blocking up the neutral zone. They need to go back to a heavy forecheck instead of just sending one man in. Stop looking for the perfect set up, shoot it on net and get guys in front to try to take eyes away.

Heavy forecheck is the key. Nuke and Lehky, yer on stage!!

 

[GeoRox89]

Actually I have an idea and an hour until my next meeting. Imma do it

Are we going to be the worst fanbase ever again? That was fun. Had the resident mathematician been back since then?

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

29 is gonna put the puck deep. Use that fastest heaviest skating in the league to get in and pound Heskainen and Tanev into submission. Eat their asses.

Or they'll give up two goals in the first period. while never looking dangerous and get about 15 low danger shots on goal.

All Dallas is doing is playing basic bitch hockey. They're not playing well or doing anything amazing. Just not giving the puck away in the neutral zone while waiting for the Avs to make dumb decisions with the puck.

They are taking away the Avs passing and skating lanes steering the Avs to the outside. They are pressing the Avs points immediately after face offs giving the Avs zero time to set up and they are putting 2 men on the puck possessor at all times taking away their time and space.

I didn't know that's called "bitch hockey" because that's the basic formula used in playing a trapping transition style game.

I recall NJ winning a Stanley Cup using this methodology.

 

[Hasbro]

You'll get

JD/Mack/Mikko
Lehky/Mitts/Nuke
Wood/Rosco/Parise
and some combo of Cogs/Trenin/Duhaime/Kivi on the 4th

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

They are taking away the Avs passing and skating lanes steering the Avs to the outside. They are pressing the Avs points immediately after face offs giving the Avs zero time to set up and they are putting 2 men on the puck possessor at all times taking away their time and space.

I didn't know that's called "bitch hockey" because that's the basic formula used in playing a trapping transition style game.

I recall NJ winning a Stanley Cup using this methodology.

Basic bitch meaning they're not doing anything unique or innovative. Dallas isn't inventing a whole new system that no one has thought of before. They're just playing solid defensive hockey and waiting for the Avs to not manage the puck properly.

Not to say it's "bitch" hockey.

 

[MacKaRant]

Why are we expecting them to be somehow different?

For me, they looked completely overmatched physically and "out-hungered" in Games 2-4 of the Vegas series and Bednar called them out on it, and then came back to match Vegas's intensity in Games 5 and 6, which could have gone either way.

That's why I think it's not a lost cause.

 

[forsbergavs32]

Actually I have an idea and an hour until my next meeting. Imma do it

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

Basic bitch meaning they're not doing anything unique or innovative. Dallas isn't inventing a whole new system that no one has thought of before. They're just playing solid defensive hockey and waiting for the Avs to not manage the puck properly.

Not to say it's "bitch" hockey.

Thanks.... Now I understand.......

 

[The Moops]

View attachment 870032

Almost done!

 

[The Moops]

View attachment 870032

Done!

 

[Eltuna]

The defense is not what is being stated. It is how the Avs are attacking. They are generating a relatively few amount of high danger chances compared to the amount of attempts. To state that high danger chance generation is not a problem is incredibly misguided. To win 3/4, the Avs are going to have to put up 14-17 consistently. Maybe you squeak through a game, but 3 of 4 is a tall order unless you generate more chances.

The goaltending difference is how that very much matters. To beat Otter at a higher rate, you absolutely have to have more dangerous chances to win consistently. If you tell DeBoer before each game that the Avs will have 11 and the Stars will have 9, he's going to take that every time. Dallas can win that way. Avs have a much more difficult time. Why... because George is significantly worse on medium and low danger chances. Dallas doesn't need to create as much to win. If they just limit the Avs high danger stuff, then stay within earshot elsewhere... they'll win games.

This is very clear in these 3 games... Otter has faced 19 high danger shots and given up 5 goals. George has faced 21 high danger shots and given up 3 goals. The actual shots are pretty close, and the Stars are actually losing that battle. Just like they are losing the high danger chance battle. But where the difference jumps out... Otter has faced 20 medium danger shots and given up 2 goals, 42 low danger shots and given up 1 goal. George has faced 19 medium danger shots and given up 3 goals 32 low danger shots and given up 3 goals. The Avs are generating far more medium and low danger... but scoring far less goals. Given Otter's normal rates, the high danger should go up while the others should stay in the same range (based on 3 season average). The book on Otter is that he's a rather mediocre high danger goalie, but typically (not this regular season, but previous and thusfar in the playoffs) a very dependable goalie on medium and low danger. So if you just limit the high danger, he can win you a lot of games. That's what has happened and how Dallas is gameplanning. They would have won game 1 if he played slightly better.

In last night's game, the Avs had 61% Corsi and 56% HDCF.

I would agree Deboer would take that, that’s not what’s happening this series though. If the Avs are getting 11 the Stars are getting 6, I can promise you there are zero coaches that would take that breakdown. If it was 11 to 9 I would agree with your premise but I don’t think you realize how significant close to 64% in this particular stat is and how infrequently it occurs over a series.

The reason the Avs are down 2-1 is not at all due to the high danger breakdown of the two teams, it’s not even in the top 5 reasons through three games. The biggest problems have been special teams where Dallas has been great, goaltending, and as much as people don't want to hear it, puck luck. An example of this is that the Avs have 4 posts in this series compared to zero for the Stars

 

[henchman21]

I would agree Deboer would take that, that’s not what’s happening this series though. If the Avs are getting 11 the Stars are getting 6, I can promise you there are zero coaches that would take that breakdown. If it was 11 to 9 I would agree with your premise but I don’t think you realize how significant close to 64% in this particular stat is and how infrequently it occurs over a series.

The reason the Avs are down 2-1 is not at all due to the high danger breakdown of the two teams, it’s not even in the top 5 reasons through three games. The biggest problems have been special teams where Dallas has been great, goaltending, and as much as people don't want to hear it, puck luck. An example of this is that the Avs have 4 posts in this series compared to zero for the Stars

My man...

Game 1: Avs 11 Stars 8
Game 2: Avs 9 Stars 10
Game 3: Avs 13 Stars 10

3 Game Average: Avs 11 Stars 9.33

That is exactly what is happening. The series is 54%-46% in favor of the Avs.

 

[Eltuna]

My man...

Game 1: Avs 11 Stars 8
Game 2: Avs 9 Stars 10
Game 3: Avs 13 Stars 10

3 Game Average: Avs 11 Stars 9.33

That is exactly what is happening. The series is 54%-46% in favor of the Avs.

Those are all situations numbers, if you wanted to change your statement to saying that special teams have been a big problem for the Avs I would 100% agree with that statement. Like I said special teams are one of the three biggest reasons the Avs are down 2-1.

 

[henchman21]

Those are all situations numbers, if you wanted to change your statement to saying that special teams have been a big problem for the Avs I would 100% agree with that statement. Like I said special teams are one of the three biggest reasons the Avs are down 2-1.

I've stated all situations chances the whole time here... I don't care how the Avs get 15-16 high danger chances, but that's what they need.

 

[The Shermanator]

Who will be sacrificed to allow Drouin to return?

HOLY f***

 

[Eltuna]

I've stated all situations chances the whole time here... I don't care how the Avs get 15-16 high danger chances, but that's what they need.

If your criticism is on the Avs power play and that alone I think that is fair and makes way more sense, that’s a much better avenue to look at as it’s been an actual problem in this series

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Yuck

 

[Tralfamadore]

Yuck

Horrible

 

[JLo217]

Who will be sacrificed to allow Drouin to return?

This aged poorly

 

[henchman21]

This aged poorly

Nuke: