GDT: WCQF - Game #2 : Oilers host Kings on May the Fourth be with us @8pm MT | ESPN2, CBC, SN, TVAS, BSSC

[bone]

Yeah, the percentages are not good for teams who lose the first 2 games. I would imagine they are even more dire when those two losses occur for the home team. Series is essentially over if we lose tonight, is the reality.

Actually historically if it's the home team losing the first 2 they've come back to win more often than when it's the road team losing the first 2, but that's most likely tied to the fact that the home team is typically the better team, often by a significant margin. Sample size also becomes a factor as the road team winning the first two games has only happened 86 times in 727 series where the home team winning both has happened 251 times.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Actually historically if it's the home team losing the first 2 they've come back to win more often than when it's the road team losing the first 2, but that's most likely tied to the fact that the home team is typically the better team, often by a significant margin.

It’s still not a good percentage. Especially considering this club is mentally fragile

 

[bone]

It’s still not a good percentage. Especially considering this club is mentally fragile

Didn't say it was good odds. Just that it was more common.

I'd agree with this team being where it's at, it's closer to road team odds than home team odds. Particularly as the teams were fairly equal in the regular season.

 

[Morpheus]

 

[Mr Positive]

Why trade for Brassard if you're not going to use him.

The coach dresses who gives the best chance to win, not to justify a GM's moves

 

[rickysusedsht]

What happened to Brassard? Didn't think he looks out of place in the bottom 6 . Is he a bit banged up ?

 

[orangewinter]

I got to Edmonton, Hopefully the oilers play better tonight and hopefully Mike smith plays like he did in April.

 

[redgrant]

I think the covid vaccination stuff is dropped now. Archie can freely cross the borders now. NO?

I just heard on the radio he can play in LA. Stand corrected about that and hope archibald does well. Still concerned we should go 7 if Darnell is playing hurt.

 

[FlameChampion]

Dont really like the lineup.

I think they should keep Yamamoto with McDavid.

Archibald getting inserted on the third line just seems weird to me.

 

[ujju2]

Right now, I think our chance to win this series is 25%.
If we win tonight, it goes back up to 50%.
If we lose tonight, it's likely 0%.




You know, we outplayed the Jets last year too. Infact we LEAD most of those games.
We mostly outplayed the Hawks too.

The problem (just like the last 2 times) is they have the better goalie, and we lack the ability to 'lock it down'.

Even if we win this series, this is likely the only series we have a chance at winning (and its a slim chance at best). We are FAR FAR away from being a cup contender by virtue of having the worst goalie in the entire playoffs for a 3rd straight year.

Cinderella runs are done by teams with Carey Price in net. Or JS Giguere, or Duane Roloson getting insanely hot. Or Halak. In the rare occasion a young underscouted fresh goalie like Binnington, Cam Ward or Matt Murray will make runs.

Going into the playoffs with Mike Smith in net, was like those stacked Senators teams going into the playoffs with Patrick Lalime, or Ray Emery. Even when they were the favorites to win, they lost to the Leafs backed by CuJo.

We will be lucky to win a round against a shitty Kings team, because even a 'past-his-prime' Jonathan Quick is better than who we have in our net.



For the 3rd straight year, we are "out-goalied" in the 1st round.

IDK, I'm not convinced Vanacek is better than Smith... at least not yet.

 

[FlameChampion]

I took heat before from someone on here and I’ll take it again
I like Archibald coming in. He has wheels and likes to hit. Could be a spark tonight

I dont mind him coming in, but I find the placement in the lineup kind of weird. Who knows, maybe it works.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The coach dresses who gives the best chance to win, not to justify a GM's moves

Archibald does not give the Oilers any advantage.

 

[TheNumber4]

if the Kings want a free PP tonight all they have to do is troll Archie.

 

[Mr Positive]

Archibald does not give the Oilers any advantage.

From my angle I agree, but the coach sees it differently, and has a lot more information than we have.

 

[bucks_oil]

Dont really like the lineup.

I think they should keep Yamamoto with McDavid.

Archibald getting inserted on the third line just seems weird to me.

I agree. I'd shuffle things quite a bit:

Kane McD Yama
McLeod Drai Pulju
Hyman Nuge Kassian
Foegele Ryan Archibald

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

From my angle I agree, but the coach sees it differently, and has a lot more information than we have.

Unless of course the GM is overriding the coach.

 

[FlameChampion]

Our forward depth just isnt that great. Its better than it used to be but its still lacking.

I kind of said it throughout the year but I think it was a mistake to not have more call ups than they did. Maybe guys like Malone, Griffith, Holloway, Cracknell, Lavoie etc would of moved the needle more or lit a fire under some guys butts more.

 

[russ99]

Dont really like the lineup.

I think they should keep Yamamoto with McDavid.

Archibald getting inserted on the third line just seems weird to me.

This is as much a stick in the mud as anything Tippett did. Good coaches adapt.

I sincerely hope game 2 isn’t Woodcroft’s “we’re going to play this way, it’s going to work” moment.

 

[LemmyUlanov55]

I'm going to get up early, the Oilers usually win those games. We'll be fine.
Go Oilers!

 

[gordonhught]

Why trade for Brassard if you're not going to use him.

Depth in case of injury. He can play middle six minutes if needed.

 

[Mr Positive]

Unless of course the GM is overriding the coach.

why would Holland do that? If he could override, wouldn't he do it to put in Brassard, who he just paid assets to get? Archibald is probably gone to some American team in the summer.

 

[forlecious commander]

I'd rather let a player try to get going who can play in game 3 and 4.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Seems like a weird choice to quit on the season, but here we are.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

why would Holland do that? If he could override, wouldn't he do it to put in Brassard, who he just paid assets to get? Archibald is probably gone to some American team in the summer.

Good point, I just don’t know why Archibald would be in the lineup.

 

[Mr Positive]

if the Kings want a free PP tonight all they have to do is troll Archie.

idk, to me that sounds like that game benefits us. If they are spending time doing that, they are not concentrating on what matters. Their PP is also really bad.

I just saw the Woodcroft pre-game and I don't mind the argument he puts up for why Archibald is in. He likes all his options and wants to use them, and Archibald is very motivated.

Although I sort of agree with a previous poster who said that the last thing we need is a player who is hyped and eager to impress. That's how you can find yourself out of position chasing hits or chasing offense. The LA gameplan is likely to build their offense off of our mistakes. Perhaps a steady veteran like Brassard would be more suited, but then again RNH plays that way and it wasn't really working.

It's complex