Series Talk: WCQF Dallas Stars (C2) vs Colorado Avalanche (C3) | Stars win 4-3

[S E P H]

Dallas have played with a lead for 1 minute 2 seconds this series.

That's where I am still a bit scared. All the principles of probability say they (Dallas) will eventually get the lead, and the better the chance of a lead, the better the chance of winning the game.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

That's where I am still a bit scared. All the principles of probability say they (Dallas) will eventually get the lead, and the better the chance of a lead, the better the chance of winning the game.

I think you need to review what probability means, my brother in Christ.

 

[S E P H]

I think you need to review what probability means, my brother in Christ.

Dallas is solid enough to get the lead even with their injuries, much more than just a couple of minutes through four games. That's my main point with that post. The likelihood that Dallas will have the lead is much greater for them to be higher than what their current level is at IMHO, which is probability. How do you see it instead, blud?

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Good morning all.

We take a 3-2 series lead going back to Denver tonight.

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

Good morning all.

We take a 3-2 series lead going back to Denver tonight.

 

[Ararana]

I am completely convinced Dallas takes game 5, Avs take game 6.

No way this series doesn't go to game 7.

 

[AvsRuleU]

I am completely convinced Dallas takes game 5, Avs take game 6.

No way this series doesn't go to game 7.

My gut as well, but hope I'm wrong. If Avs find their consistency and carry game 4 into tonight, it's over. No one beats an Avs team on all cylinders.

 

[Grigowski]

I am completely convinced Dallas takes game 5, Avs take game 6.

No way this series doesn't go to game 7.

And i am completely convinced that this series ends in Game 6.....

There will not be a Game 7.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Yes, only 2 games, but Gabriel Landeskog leads the entire league in corsi in the playoffs.

Look who's next from the Avs... Sam Malinski. EJ should've never been in over him for the first two games of the series. Fast puck retrievals, ability to skate it out or make the breakout pass, and spends most of his shifts in the offensive zone.

 

[Grigowski]

Yes, only 2 games, but Gabriel Landeskog leads the entire league in corsi in the playoffs.

Look who's next from the Avs... Sam Malinski. EJ should've never been in over him for the first two games of the series. Fast puck retrievals, ability to skate it out or make the breakout pass, and spends most of his shifts in the offensive zone.

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As i said, and with no disrespect to Dallas, but its on us to lose this series.....

And it shows. Never ever shoould this be a tied series.

 

[AvsMakar08]

Guys, by the way Mark Messier promised that Avs will win game 5 in Dallas today.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Guys, by the way Mark Messier promised that Avs will win game 5 in Dallas today.

Was that over a phone call with you or in your group chat?

 

[dahrougem2]

Guys, by the way Mark Messier promised that Avs will win game 5 in Dallas today.

WHAT THE F*** DID HENCHY SAY THOUGH???

 

[Vaslof]

Game 4 analysis while we wait for tonight's game:

 

[missionAvs]

WHAT THE F*** DID HENCHY SAY THOUGH???

I spoke to Henchy just now. He can't talk to me because the organization he works for, the Tampa Bay Lightning, is out getting team ice cream at the moment. It's hot in South Florida. You know this.

 

[Snow Arc]

Think my two favorite euphimisms for this are from:
1. Crash Davis (fictional character in Bull Durham) - he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a f***ing boat.
2. Jake McNiece (real man, they had to tone movies about him down so they would be believable)- he's so drunk he couldn't hit the floor with his hat in 30 throws.

I wish the Avs could force every single player under contract to shoot 1,000,000 pucks on goal through a shooter tutor this summer. Guys like Makar, MacKinnon, Nuke... there shouldn't even be a thought process involved in the shot. It should be 100% twitch muscle memory with an assassin's attitude. There is no practice in the season...this is the shit that must be honed during the summer if you are looking to improve it.

Adrenaline and fatigue do funny things to you muscles and reflexes. For instance, the NYPD, a supposedly well trained police force, routinely have around a 20% annual average hit rate for shots that count, in real world situations.

 

[Miri]

I absolutely hear you but It’s not quite as straightforward as you make it IMO. Do the Avs have the ability to win? No doubt. The team is stacked. And you are right. It is on the players to execute. But I put a lot on Bednar because it’s the HC’s job to have the team ready, certainly by the start of the POs and especially with so many starters being scratched in April waiting for the end of the RS, and with a relatively healthy roster. Another way of putting it is, are the players still listening to the HC’s message. Yesterday, the answer was yes.

I just question JB’s adaptability/stubborness. This is reflected in his lineups. I can forgive JB’s playing EJ in the first two games because he wanted experience and size. Love EJ but his minutes should be limited and that was before he put in Big Sammy. The other major issue is his use of Necas. We saw 62-11-88 shortly after Necas was acquired and it worked. But JB insists on playing Necas next to Mack which is redundant given their speed and playmaking ability. So now some are saying Necas sucks but to me the issue is whether JB is using him correctly and placing him and other players in a position to succeed? Mind you, this was my concern when Nelson was struggling with his linemates. JB ‘s responsibility was to do everything to get Nelson going. That raised two concerns for me with JB.

First, why is JB insisting on playing Necas next to Mack when in four games it really hasn’t produced the way we hoped? Necas isn’t Rants and shouldn’t be played with the expectation that he should be. In this regard, JB’s pronouncement that this is a production oriented biz makes his stubbornness a head scratching WTH moment? The second issue was a much bigger concern.

The Avs have to be able to roll four effective lines if they want to advance in the POs much less win the SC. IMO, that’s inarguable. JB could get away with overloading the top line in the RS but that’s not how it works in the POs. Keeping Necas on the first line was hobbling the second line until we got lucky that Landeskog has made an incredible comeback so far and has been a valuable contributor. So, I feel like JB has been fortunate that Landeskog could play such a key role on ice.

IIRC, after the game three loss I specifically suggested JB drop Drouin to the third line if not scratch him if Colton was available and put Landeskog at 2LW. Look what happened when he did that. I also proposed switching Nuke and Necas but I was certain JB’s stubborness would put the kibbosh on this suggestion.

Unlike the RS, JB has got limited opportunities to get it right. If the team as a whole isn’t ready right from the get go in the POs then when as fans should we expect them to be? The fact that JB had the players playing DeBoer’s game and succumbing to his strategy and tactics in the initial three games was infuriating. You saw last night what this stacked team is truly capable of.

So I tip my hat to the coaching staff for getting the players to return to playing Avs hockey and adjusting tactics. They did a very good job in that regard. But I’m still not completely sold on JB. He needs to get the Avs to the WCF to be assured his job is safe IMO.

You’re also right about puck luck and the Stars being equally as talented as the Avs (IMO they’re unbalanced but that’s irrelevant here). With Heiskanen and JRob out, this shouldn’t have been close. Mind you, in game 3 the Avs had over three minutes of PP in the OT and could hardly even set up in the O-zone for the first couple of minutes. Like WTH was the coaching staff doing during the intermission? Overall I like JB’s ability to maintain an even keel. But there are times when one needs to be able to light a firecracker under their team.

FTR, I was a big JB backer up through the 2022 SC and even into this RS. I prefer JB’s up tempo, transition, offense first philosophy and I’m definitely not enthused at the prospect of replacing him. But overplaying and over relying on the top line made me question JB’s suitability and decisions.

The one thing about head coaching, no matter the sport, is the knowledge you’ll eventually be terminated from your job.

You see i dont think he had players playing DeBoers game first 3 games. He imo wants us to play the way we played in game 4. Always. I dont think he made any tactics adjustments for game 4, that miraculously allowed us to play our game (i mean beyond personnel change, like Malinski instead of EJ, or Landy on line 2) - players just finally put their shit together and played at 110 percent. This led to Dallas getting outskated and outworked and all the shots we had were result of that - they could not keep up.

Regarding Dallas, agreed they are not balanced, they have way better attack than defense. Even with Heiskanen. With Robertson in the line-up, they can afford to push both Benn and Seguin to third line, their former first liners and biggest stars maybe even what, 5-7 years ago? With all the respect to the likes of Coyle and Colton, or Drouin now, while they are more than fine as third-liners, they were never really stars of Seguin/Benn calibre.
That said, we have better defense and as a result, more balanced roster. Hopefully it will help to see us through. Fingers crossed.

 

[Bender]

WHAT THE F*** DID HENCHY SAY THOUGH???

He only beeped once, so you know what that means -> f*** dallass

 

[Jazzguitar]

My take stands: Winner of Game 4 takes this series.

I'm convinced winner of game 6 or 7 takes this series. Avs in 9

 

[The Pwnerer]

Yes, only 2 games, but Gabriel Landeskog leads the entire league in corsi in the playoffs.

Look who's next from the Avs... Sam Malinski. EJ should've never been in over him for the first two games of the series. Fast puck retrievals, ability to skate it out or make the breakout pass, and spends most of his shifts in the offensive zone.

View attachment 1024881

Great call, Malinski ever since the trade deadline has been phenomenal in his role. Confidence can be a hell of a drug. I was definitely worried coming into
the playoffs if he could keep it up but he's doing everything right in the bottom pairing. Defense to offense. Handles the forecheck well. Very happy for him.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I'm convinced winner of game 6 or 7 takes this series. Avs in 9

IMO we will see more of the same which is the team that will score the most goals will win. Score more goals than Dallas tonight and I think they take game 5. I am quite sure of that.

 

[Pokecheque]

Whatever happens, the Avs are the ones in control. If they choose to lay down like they did for much of games 2 and 3, they'll simply hand this series to Dallas. If they play like they did in games 1 and 4, they'll advance. Simple as that.

Still somewhat annoyed at this core for their play in game 3. I thought FOR CERTAIN MacKinnon was hurt as hell because the drop in his game from late in game 2 through all of game 3 was so abrupt. And while I'm sure he's banged up to some degree he obviously had another gear in game 4 that he just...wasn't using.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Great call, Malinski ever since the trade deadline has been phenomenal in his role. Confidence can be a hell of a drug. I was definitely worried coming into
the playoffs if he could keep it up but he's doing everything right in the bottom pairing. Defense to offense. Handles the forecheck well. Very happy for him.

IMO being healthy scratch earlier in the season (can't remember when exactly) was the best thing that happened to him. He came back with more confidence and it has showed in his play quite a bit. Maybe he was told he wasn't being traded at the TDL and that gave him more confidence.

 

[flyfysher]

You see i dont think he had players playing DeBoers game first 3 games. He imo wants us to play the way we played in game 4. Always. I dont think he made any tactics adjustments for game 4, that miraculously allowed us to play our game (i mean beyond personnel change, like Malinski instead of EJ, or Landy on line 2) - players just finally put their shit together and played at 110 percent. This led to Dallas getting outskated and outworked and all the shots we had were result of that - they could not keep up.

Regarding Dallas, agreed they are not balanced, they have way better attack than defense. Even with Heiskanen. With Robertson in the line-up, they can afford to push both Benn and Seguin to third line, their former first liners and biggest stars maybe even what, 5-7 years ago? With all the respect to the likes of Coyle and Colton, or Drouin now, while they are more than fine as third-liners, they were never really stars of Seguin/Benn calibre.
That said, we have better defense and as a result, more balanced roster. Hopefully it will help to see us through. Fingers crossed.

Yeah, I agree the players put in a 110% effort but don’t underestimate the effect chemistry in terms of lineups has. You’re talking about matching differing players’ skill sets to define the nature and success or failure of that line and ultimately the team. It was no accident the first, second and fourth lines scored in game 4. It’s about diversifying the team’s scoring prowess. That’s why I want JB to maximize each player’s potential.

You can never underestimate what your opponent is going to throw at you. At times, different teams in the tourney are going to focus on shutting Mack and Makar down assuming the Avs proceed that far. So that diversification of the team’s scoring will put a lot of pressure on opposing teams and their ability to defend against us. They’ll need to match our speed and depth to do so. How many teams could do so if the Avs consistently play like they did in game 4?

And In terms of effort, Lehkonen, Necas and Drouin each gave their all. But they didn’t score. Drouin might have gotten an assist but I don’t remember. Frankly, I think the first two are going to inevitably breakout with a little puck luck. Don’t forget Otter has actually been unreal. Drouin seems like his injury doesn’t allow him to battle like he used to. I’m not questioning his effort. Rather, would it be better to scratch him? Since Colton is injured, no. And I don’t think JB will deviate from his game 4 lineup which I’m fine with. I’d just like him to get Necas away from Mack at least once in awhile. Really, that should’ve been given a lengthier tryout long ago but here we are. Maybe some analytics hound can tell us whether 62-29-88 that line has been meeting its expected goals/60.

 

[Foppa2118]

Great call, Malinski ever since the trade deadline has been phenomenal in his role. Confidence can be a hell of a drug. I was definitely worried coming into
the playoffs if he could keep it up but he's doing everything right in the bottom pairing. Defense to offense. Handles the forecheck well. Very happy for him.

I'm interested to see if Malinski can handle the forecheck in Dallas when they have last change. He didn't face much pressure in Denver. Bedsy got him good matchups. Though he handled the few times he did well.

If he can pass this test in Dallas it would be big for the team.