Watch how the Leafs tighten things up come playoff time....

[Delicious Dangles*]

If defense is so easily played that the playoff switch suddenly turns it on, then what is the excuse for not flipping that same switch in the regular season?

Because it's not worth the increased risk of injury and massive loss of energy in any one regular season game to be worth going all-out. In the playoffs, every game, every play, matters so everybody steps up that little bit. Players get to pucks a little faster, which takes space away for offensive creativity, and players can take more liberties because of how the game is called.

You also learn player tendencies, team systems, and how to play to one team specifically, instead of learning an overall defensive style that has to loosely apply to all teams. Line matching also gets a lot tighter, as we saw last year.

There are a lot of reasons. It's not just a switch that teams put on. A lot of it has to do with the different style of play in the playoffs that naturally creates an environment where it's easier to defend and harder to score.

People also forget we should have our 3rd-line center back by then. We just MIGHT be better defensively with our checking center.

 

[Pi]

Teams don't magically tighten up for the playoffs, you are exactly what you practice. The Leafs can surprise but it won't be our defence.

Bernier and the offense will have to be perfect.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I expect us to try harder in the playoffs but then again so does everyone else.

To be honest, it worries me that after the collapse last season, we are still dropping 3rd period leads like no one else. The positive is that we are still winning almost all the games we lead into the 3rd albeit after a bit of drama.

4v4 and the shootout favour us but we wont have those advantages come playoff time

this is the way I look at it.
yes they blow leads - but they don't panic, (they panic while they're losing the lead ) but there is a sense of calm on the bench. It's this thing of "okay - we blew the lead, no worries, we can still win this."


there wasn't that air in Game seven. so I take the positive [shocker, eh?] that's new and different and I like it.

 

[Mess]

Because it's not worth the increased risk of injury and massive loss of energy in any one regular season game to be worth going all-out. In the playoffs, every game, every play, matters so everybody steps up that little bit. Players get to pucks a little faster, which takes space away for offensive creativity, and players can take more liberties because of how the game is called.

You also learn player tendencies, team systems, and how to play to one team specifically, instead of learning an overall defensive style that has to loosely apply to all teams. Line matching also gets a lot tighter, as we saw last year.

There are a lot of reasons. It's not just a switch that teams put on. A lot of it has to do with the different style of play in the playoffs that naturally creates an environment where it's easier to defend and harder to score.

People also forget we should have our 3rd-line center back by then. We just MIGHT be better defensively with our checking center.

Other than an injured player returning this tightening up factor happens for all team not only the Leafs. So its not an advantage that only the Leafs can draw from.

Before ---> After Playoff effect

Good defense ------> Great defense
Average defense ---> Good defense
Weak defense ------> Average defense

With the tightening up effect of playoff hockey, the bell curve entire scale shifts as teams tighten their belts and turn up the intensity. Strong defensive teams and systems only get better, as do weaker defenses but they don't become equals.

 

[Holymakinaw]

With the tightening up effect of playoff hockey, the bell curve entire scale shifts as teams tighten their belts and turn up the intensity. Strong defensive teams and systems only get better, as do weaker defenses but they don't become equals.

On the contrary, sometimes that's exactly what it does.

Much like rain and mud can make two very different Football teams equal.....a defensive, grinding style of play can take away another hockey team's tools and bring the game to a level that BOTH can play.

The difference MIGHT be that the Leafs also possess some REAL game-breakers that are hot this year, other teams don't have. Y'know......those guys that break out and score timely goals to win games, after the team has given up a zillion shots?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I agree it would be nice to have a conversation without the playground antics. You get annoyed by those that seemingly can find no fault in the team, and I admit to getting annoyed by those that seemingly can find no positives.

I think most rational people can freely admit they do not play well in their own end and are a long way from being in the conversation of Stanley Cup contenders.

That said, at present, I believe they are a playoff bound team that could win a round.

Perhaps we can agree that there are posters here that are too optimistic and there are others that are too pessimistic.

Perhaps we can agree that there is a third category as well. It's probably the category that most posters belong to despite being labelled otherwise.

 

[egd27]

Perhaps we can agree that there is a third category as well. It's probably the category that most posters belong to despite being labelled otherwise.

Sure.

We can agree the sky is blue as well, but neither pertain the point that the post was addressing.

 

[-DeMo-]

why do people believe we tightened up defensively last year in the playoffs in 4 of the 7 games we gave up 4+ goals. gave up 22 goals in 7 games that's over 3 Goals against per game.

 

[nsleaf]

If the defense does not improve from what this season has showed then I do not expect them to make much noise in the play-offs, if they get there.
Some people see the glass as half full and some see it as half empty. That's the thing about the Leafs, they are right at that half way point and I think they could go either way. I myself am hopefull about some play-off success this year but sometimes watching them just makes you want to pull your hair out and the bonehead plays and give-aways me a little less optimistic than some.

 

[Mess]

On the contrary, sometimes that's exactly what it does.

Much like rain and mud can make two very different Football teams equal.....a defensive, grinding style of play can take away another hockey team's tools and bring the game to a level that BOTH can play.

The difference MIGHT be that the Leafs also possess some REAL game-breakers that are hot this year, other teams don't have. Y'know......those guys that break out and score timely goals to win games, after the team has given up a zillion shots?

Student analogy

If you take 2 students and one is a "A" grade student and the other is a "C" student in their courses.

Now final exams arrive and the importance and intensity and effort increases across the board.

One would certainly expect the A student to continue on as they have consistently and do well, but do we suddenly expect the C student to become an A student and equals?.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Student analogy

If you take 2 students and one is a "A" grade student and the other is a "C" student in their courses.

Now final exams arrive and the importance and intensity and effort increases across the board.

One would certainly expect the A student to continue on as they have consistently and do well, but do we suddenly expect the C student to become an A student and equals?.

Ahhh. something I can totally attest to.
there are a lot of variables.

there are a lot of C students who can become an A student because they know how to cram the night before and spew it out. Can you tell them to remember what they've done? No. Because they didn't retain it.

But there are A students who can go into the final exam and fail because they simply can't do exams well. You can talk to the A student months later and have a conversation with them and they can tell you everything they've learned. They could even tutor the C student - but they still don't do well.


Hi, my name is Daisy and I was an A+ student but always failed my exams, but boy could I make YOU an A+ student come exam time.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sure.

We can agree the sky is blue as well, but neither pertain the point that the post was addressing.

What point was that?

 

[Holymakinaw]

Student analogy

If you take 2 students and one is a "A" grade student and the other is a "C" student in their courses.

Now final exams arrive and the importance and intensity and effort increases across the board.

One would certainly expect the A student to continue on as they have consistently and do well, but do we suddenly expect the C student to become an A student and equals?.

LOL.

How about this analogy, instead?

One student was an "A student" in math, but a "C student" in geography.

The other student was a "C student" in math, and an "A student" in geography.

After their exams, for BOTH subjects, where they studied really really hard.......Who will graduate with the higher grade point average?

You seem to be in the know.

So tell us.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If the defense does not improve from what this season has showed then I do not expect them to make much noise in the play-offs, if they get there.
Some people see the glass as half full and some see it as half empty. That's the thing about the Leafs, they are right at that half way point and I think they could go either way. I myself am hopefull about some play-off success this year but sometimes watching them just makes you want to pull your hair out and the bonehead plays and give-aways me a little less optimistic than some.

That's exactly how I see it. Play mediocre for a couple of weeks, and we're out of the playoffs. On the other hand, 1st round home advantage is well within our grasp so it's impossible to argue that they're a huge dog to win a PO round assuming they get there.

Then of course they're likely to be a big dog in the 2nd round but they could win, stranger things have happened.

You just never know what this team is going to do. Most likely result is obviously losing in the 1st or 2nd PO round and they are probably more likely to miss the playoffs then they are to win more than 1 round.

But yeah, when I see people say stuff like "we will make the playoffs for sure" or "we will probably have a positive goal differential by the end of the season" I just roll my eyes and think yeah OK, so you have a crystal ball, sure thing bud. But express any doubt at all in these predictions means getting labelled a hater or whatever.

 

[Gary Nylund]

LOL.

How about this analogy, instead?

One student was an "A student" in math, but a "C student" in geography.

The other student was a "C student" in math, and an "A student" in geography.

After their exams, for BOTH subjects, where they studied really really hard.......Who will graduate with the higher grade point average?

You seem to be in the know.

So tell us.

Rhubarb is obviously the answer you're looking for.

 

[diceman934]

Odd, I remember noticing the Leafs tighten up their defense in the playoffs last year. It was a marginal improvement, but still an improvement at that.

We have improved in one key area....Goaltending we still give the puck away far to often. Dion was horrible in the playoffs last year and he plays the most minutes. Gleason will help some what. I guess if Bolland is health we can expect some improvement from our Centers.

I would hope that we learned from last season....that we can not lay back when we get a lead, we are simply not good enough defensively to do this.

 

[The Caveman]

The Leafs were a statistical anomaly last year as the advanced stats people love to tell us. If they can make the playoffs and go to a second round this year, are they still an anomaly?

Like many, I keep waiting for the implosion. Anyone who knows hockey will tell you that they can be awful at times defensively. Considering that we will be playing even more rookies at D (ideally) over the next few years, I don't see this poor D changing drastically. RC deserves credit for figuring out a system that allows the team to win considering this obvious deficiency. I have doubted this system, but again, it seems to be working.

The reality is that they are 60-40-13 over the last two years, with one of the best records in the NHL over the last 20 or so games.What matters is winning, something the leafs have been good at over the last 2 years. While they don't win with dominance, they have shown that capacity to get it done when it matters. And it is not luck. That is a necessary quality of, yes, a good team.

Long live the anomaly.

 

[Holymakinaw]

We have improved in one key area....Goaltending we still give the puck away far to often. Dion was horrible in the playoffs last year and he plays the most minutes. Gleason will help some what. I guess if Bolland is health we can expect some improvement from our Centers.

I would hope that we learned from last season....that we can not lay back when we get a lead, we are simply not good enough defensively to do this.

I agree.

And I HOPE that the additions of Bolland, Clarkson and Gleason will make a big difference. I think they can.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The Leafs were a statistical anomaly last year as the advanced stats people love to tell us. If they can make the playoffs and go to a second round this year, are they still an anomaly?

Like many, I keep waiting for the implosion. Anyone who knows hockey will tell you that they can be awful at times defensively. Considering that we will be playing even more rookies at D (ideally) over the next few years, I don't see this poor D changing drastically. RC deserves credit for figuring out a system that allows the team to win considering this obvious deficiency. I have doubted this system, but again, it seems to be working.

The reality is that they are 60-40-13 over the last two years, with one of the best records in the NHL over the last 20 or so games.What matters is winning, something the leafs have been good at over the last 2 years. While they don't win with dominance, they have shown that capacity to get it done when it matters. And it is not luck. That is a necessary quality of, yes, a good team.

Long live the anomaly.

The Corsi lovers that I've argued with just don't get it. Any stats that completely ignore goaltending and look only at shot numbers can never give you accurate overall picture. Quality goaltending can mask a lot of problems. The Leafs have elite goaltending, and as a result are competitive.

Make no mistake though - with average goaltending we would have one of the worst teams in the NHL. That's why instead of bragging about our accomplishments I would rather these guys wake up and start giving full effort on defence. I believe this team has the talent to play much better. Maybe I'm just a homer optimist but I really believe it!

 

[-DeMo-]

We have improved in one key area....Goaltending we still give the puck away far to often. Dion was horrible in the playoffs last year and he plays the most minutes. Gleason will help some what. I guess if Bolland is health we can expect some improvement from our Centers.

I would hope that we learned from last season....that we can not lay back when we get a lead, we are simply not good enough defensively to do this.

statistically that's not really true our #1 Reimer last year had a 2.46 GAA and 924 sv% while Bernier this year is 2.63 GAA and a 925 sv%, last year Reimer was a rookie in the playoffs and Bernier is a rookie this year in the playoffs in terms in actually playing

 

[The Caveman]

The Corsi lovers that I've argued with just don't get it. Any stats that completely ignore goaltending and look only at shot numbers can never give you accurate overall picture. Quality goaltending can mask a lot of problems. The Leafs have elite goaltending, and as a result are competitive.

Make no mistake though - with average goaltending we would have one of the worst teams in the NHL. That's why instead of bragging about our accomplishments I would rather these guys wake up and start giving full effort on defence. I believe this team has the talent to play much better. Maybe I'm just a homer optimist but I really believe it!

My problem with the advanced stat boys is that a team CAN be more than the sum of its parts.

And yes, goaltending AND timely scoring has been our saving grace. D has been getting better though. let's hope it keeps trending that way.

 

[613Leafer]

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking and hoping the "stars align" for this team to suddenly go from one of the worst defensive teams in the league to a strong one for the playoffs.

Not to mention last year in the playoffs... we let in 22 goals in 7 games! That's still a GAA ABOVE 3. We had great goaltending last playoffs (for stretches), but overall we still weren't good defensively.

Shots against last year in the playoffs?
40, 41, 38, 45, 44, 30, 35.

That's TERRIBLE. We relied heavily on our goaltending, and were lucky to get to game 7 IMO.

We have a shot at winning a series, maybe even two. But it would be because of our goaltending/scoring (and a weak Eastern Conference), not team defence IMO. We need improve defensively on Franson/Gardiner on the blueline and fix that 2nd line (Lupul-Kadri-Raymond/Clarkson/Kulemin/etc) defensively. Not to mention I would consider a coaching change. Way too much collapsing in our zone, playing defensive lines in the offensive zone due to obsession with line matching, etc.

 

[AINEC*]

Ah so the Leafs just haven't been playing defense all year so they can rest up and turn it on when the playoffs roll around.

Carlyle, you genius.

 

[prest0]

LOL.

How about this analogy, instead?

One student was an "A student" in math, but a "C student" in geography.

The other student was a "C student" in math, and an "A student" in geography.

After their exams, for BOTH subjects, where they studied really really hard.......Who will graduate with the higher grade point average?

You seem to be in the know.

So tell us.

Totally understand the purpose of this analogy, but I'm a teacher and the brutal reality is most of the time tigers don't change their stripes, regardless of the pressure. In a full year course, students who start the term around 68% end the term around 68% (with a few very rare exceptions). In my experience you are far more likely to see the 85% student regress a bit (boredom, slacking, too busy, etc).

So playing this analogy out to hockey, we're more likely to see a poor defensive unit continue to be a poor defensive unit in the playoffs whereas we might see a strong defensive unit deteriorate over time.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

Other than an injured player returning this tightening up factor happens for all team not only the Leafs. So its not an advantage that only the Leafs can draw from.

Before ---> After Playoff effect

Good defense ------> Great defense
Average defense ---> Good defense
Weak defense ------> Average defense

With the tightening up effect of playoff hockey, the bell curve entire scale shifts as teams tighten their belts and turn up the intensity. Strong defensive teams and systems only get better, as do weaker defenses but they don't become equals.

This is untrue. If you want to look at it like "bell curving" the defense, then weaker defensive teams DO get more of an advantage.

If theoretically you get 20% on a test, and that test is bell-curved so that you end up with a 60%, you have gotten a increase of 40% (which is actually a 200% increase from the original). If you get an 80% on the test, and the bell curve pushes you up to 90%, you have gotten an increase of 10% (increase of ~13% from the original). There is still that 30% gap between the two, but that gap is smaller than it would have been otherwise.

There are not infinite increases to defense that can be made. The better defense you have, the less the return is on increases.

If you can now make up that gap, and then some, in other areas (offense, goaltending), which you are already elite at, you come out ahead in the final grades.