Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
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Here are the results of a new adjusting scoring system called "VsN".
I'm not saying that this is the best method of adjusted scoring, I'm simply posting the results so that we can discuss them. (In fact, there appear to be obvious flaws, which can be seen below).
The method works as follows. Each year, we calculate a benchmark. This number is equal to the average number of points scored by the highest scorer through the Xth highest scorer in the NHL, where X is the number of teams in the league.
For example, in 1996 there were 26 teams in the NHL. We add up the total number of points scored by the highest scoring player (Mario Lemieux), 2nd highest scoring player (Jaromir Jagr), 3rd highest scoring player (Joe Sakic), all the way down to the 26th highest scoring player (Brian Leetch). This total is divided by 26, and that number is our benchmark. In this case the total number of points is 2,717, so the benchmark is 104.5.
We then adjust each player's actual results to the benchmark. For example, in 1996, Sergei Fedorov scored 107 points. The benchmark was 104.5 points. Thus, his adjusted total is 107/104.5*100 = 102 points (which could be interpreted that he produced slightly more offense than the average #1 forward that year).
Benefits? This method is simple to explain and doesn't involve any convoluted rules. The benchmark should, in theory, represent the actual output of the average #1 forward in any given season, facilitating cross-era comparisons. The benchmark should be minimally swayed by outliers (ie Howe, Gretzky, Lemieux).
Drawbacks? Short of a manual adjustment, the WWII years will always be distorted (most of the league's stars were in the Armed Forces and many of the players who remained took advantage of the low level of competition). The system is brutal during seasons with fewer teams (as seen in the results below).
The benchmarks were taken from BM67's post. They look reasonable, but I haven't recalculated them, so let me know if you see any errors. Link. I took the numbers for 2014 and 2015 from CYM's post. Link.
I'm only doing the analysis starting in 1926-27 (the year that all remaining North American professional hockey leagues were consolidated into the NHL). Perhaps there's a way to manual account for this from 1918 to 1926, but I haven't attempted to do this.
I'm not saying that this is the best method of adjusted scoring, I'm simply posting the results so that we can discuss them. (In fact, there appear to be obvious flaws, which can be seen below).
The method works as follows. Each year, we calculate a benchmark. This number is equal to the average number of points scored by the highest scorer through the Xth highest scorer in the NHL, where X is the number of teams in the league.
For example, in 1996 there were 26 teams in the NHL. We add up the total number of points scored by the highest scoring player (Mario Lemieux), 2nd highest scoring player (Jaromir Jagr), 3rd highest scoring player (Joe Sakic), all the way down to the 26th highest scoring player (Brian Leetch). This total is divided by 26, and that number is our benchmark. In this case the total number of points is 2,717, so the benchmark is 104.5.
We then adjust each player's actual results to the benchmark. For example, in 1996, Sergei Fedorov scored 107 points. The benchmark was 104.5 points. Thus, his adjusted total is 107/104.5*100 = 102 points (which could be interpreted that he produced slightly more offense than the average #1 forward that year).
Benefits? This method is simple to explain and doesn't involve any convoluted rules. The benchmark should, in theory, represent the actual output of the average #1 forward in any given season, facilitating cross-era comparisons. The benchmark should be minimally swayed by outliers (ie Howe, Gretzky, Lemieux).
Drawbacks? Short of a manual adjustment, the WWII years will always be distorted (most of the league's stars were in the Armed Forces and many of the players who remained took advantage of the low level of competition). The system is brutal during seasons with fewer teams (as seen in the results below).
The benchmarks were taken from BM67's post. They look reasonable, but I haven't recalculated them, so let me know if you see any errors. Link. I took the numbers for 2014 and 2015 from CYM's post. Link.
I'm only doing the analysis starting in 1926-27 (the year that all remaining North American professional hockey leagues were consolidated into the NHL). Perhaps there's a way to manual account for this from 1918 to 1926, but I haven't attempted to do this.
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