Prospect Info: Vitali Kravtsov: Part VIII

[nyr2k2]

It definitely seems like signing that ELC so soon was a mistake. But I also wonder how much Kravtsov was asking for it. Did the Rangers have any resignations? Did they push hook to sign so soon? Just a thought. Anyhow, seems to be good he’ll get to play where he’s comfortable this coming season.

He wanted to come to North America his D+1 year.

“I will do everything I can to play as soon as I can,” Kravtsov, the No. 9 overall pick, said through an interpreter Monday on the first day of the Rangers’ prospect development camp.

Asked if that means it’s possible he plays stateside this year, Kravtsov said “yes.”

Rangers top pick Vitali Kravtsov, under contract in KHL, hopes to come over from Russia

That was in June of 2018. He was considering buying himself out of his KHL contract to come play in North America. He met with the Rangers--who despite allegedly "rushing" him, helped him come to the conclusion that it was best for him to stay in the KHL for at least another season. The player himself wanted nothing more than to come to NA from day one.

This "rushing" players thing is silly. Like, Miller was mentioned earlier. K'Andre was unhappy in school and both coach and his academic advisor acknowledged that he was struggling academically (which is what likely caused his suspension to begin the season) and it was taking a toll on him. He was in a floundering program and was very unhappy because he wasn't into the school work. Why the hell would you want him to remain in that environment? He's being "rushed" by turning pro? Come on. He turned pro because both he and the club recognized it was best for him to focus full-time on hockey and stop having him pretend he was a student.

You can look at someone like Tarmo Reunanen--he was arguably our most "ready" European prospect and after signing him to an ELC we still loaned him back to Liiga. We didn't "rush" him. Lundkvist was also in that conversation, but I didn't see any indication that we were planning on having him play in Hartford this year (pre-pandemic); to the contrary, it sounded like he was more than likely going to be loaned back to Sweden if he was even offered a contract. He wasn't "rushed." Tyler Wall did his full four years in college, Barron likely would have. No one twisted their arm to get them to sign earlier. We're generally pretty reasonable, bordering on conservative, with NCAA players.

You can always find instances where players may have started their professional careers too early, and you can similarly find cases where teams may have been overly-conservative with getting a guy into the mix. I don't really see any type of pattern with the organization. I mean maybe there's a pattern if your position is that every European/Russian prospect needs to stay in their domestic league for four year after being drafted or whatever, but that's not even something I would entertain as a valid approach.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I could respond with what you predicted Kravtsov would do in his rookie season, but we don't need to keep revisiting that (with respect to "jumping the gun"). And I'm really not sure what the rest of this has to do with anything I've said, since I've been consistent in saying it's good that he's playing and my only complaint is that we may not have the option to bring him back at our pleasing.

But every time I make that point it just goes ignored and people talk about other things like rink size and Nils Lundkvist, so I'm moving on.

Sure, the ability to recall him would be nice. I still take this loan over him sitting on his hands for 3 more months, especially with him already being in Russia. When Traktor's season ends (and I dobut they reach the play offs) he comes over, which is late Feb. Let's hope it works out for all parties involved.

I understand Traktor not wanting to include that clause into the loan agreement. They don't really owe the Rangers anything.

 

[The Sweetness]

Honestly I think I’d prefer to not have the possibility to recall Kravtsov this year. I don’t see him really improving the team this year and I think it could help with his accountability and development for him and his coaches to know he’s with their team all year.

I worry about him viewing a release clause as a safety net if he doesn’t immediately get a lot of playing time. I suppose a release clause does give us security if we feel his development isn’t going well but at the same time the kid needs to step up to the plate and just improve no matter where he ends up.

Big year for Kravtsov no matter what.

 

[Zats Muccarello]

I just pray he doesn’t bust

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I just pray he doesn’t bust

This scouting staff would be under a lot more pressure if we hadn't won the lottery 2 years in a row. The awful Andersson pick, and then Krav looking shakey? Your first 2 top 10 picks in a decade. I'm not writing off Kravtsov totally yet though. He needs a lot more time to develop though. He's nowhere near ready.

 

[Synergy27]

This scouting staff would be under a lot more pressure if we hadn't won the lottery 2 years in a row. The awful Andersson pick, and then Krav looking shakey? Your first 2 top 10 picks in a decade. I'm not writing off Kravtsov totally yet though. He needs a lot more time to develop though. He's nowhere near ready.

I’ve been saying since the pick was made that Kravtsov will be the linchpin to the rebuild. That’s changed since they won the lottery again this year, but the Rangers still really need that pick to pan out. Whether that’s in the form of the player himself, or as a trade chip, they need to return top ten value on that pick.

 

[The Sweetness]

This scouting staff would be under a lot more pressure if we hadn't won the lottery 2 years in a row. The awful Andersson pick, and then Krav looking shakey? Your first 2 top 10 picks in a decade. I'm not writing off Kravtsov totally yet though. He needs a lot more time to develop though. He's nowhere near ready.

Yeah, it’s crazy how much better we’ve drafted both later on in the 1st round and later on in the draft than early in the 1st.

It’s extra frustrating when we had both Pettersson and Makar so high on our lists and they both went ahead of Lias Andersson.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I’ve been saying since the pick was made that Kravtsov will be the linchpin to the rebuild. That’s changed since they won the lottery again this year, but the Rangers still really need that pick to pan out. Whether that’s in the form of the player himself, or as a trade chip, they need to return top ten value on that pick.

What exactly is top-10 value? Historically, the bottom half of the top-10 has a ~40% chance of being a top-6 player.

 

[eco's bones]

Sometimes it takes more time than you would have thought. The Jets waited 4 years for Teemu Selanne after they drafted him at #10 to come over from Finland. The difference between an 18 year and 22 year old can be night and day. Kravtsov did not earn a spot in training camp and IMO on the job training with both him and Kakko would have been a disaster. Just because you're a very high draft pick with loads of skill doesn't give a player an automatic in. Every forward needs to develop a 200' game--every forward has to be able to battle for pucks and Kakko was hard pressed in both those areas last year. I think Kravtsov would have struggled even more. Those 4 years after being drafted allowed Selanne to mature and when he finally did make it to Winnipeg he hit the league like a bomb. Not saying Kravtsov will do the same but he needs to mature more.

 

[Synergy27]

What exactly is top-10 value? Historically, the bottom half of the top-10 has a ~40% chance of being a top-6 player.

Ok. We need VK to be a top 6 player or to become an asset that helps in getting one.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Sometimes it takes more time than you would have thought. The Jets waited 4 years for Teemu Selanne after they drafted him at #10 to come over from Finland. The difference between an 18 year and 22 year old can be night and day. Kravtsov did not earn a spot in training camp and IMO on the job training with both him and Kakko would have been a disaster. Just because you're a very high draft pick with loads of skill doesn't give a player an automatic in. Every forward needs to develop a 200' game--every forward has to be able to battle for pucks and Kakko was hard pressed in both those areas last year. I think Kravtsov would have struggled even more. Those 4 years after being drafted allowed Selanne to mature and when he finally did make it to Winnipeg he hit the league like a bomb. Not saying Kravtsov will do the same but he needs to mature more.

Even more recently, and I keep harping on this, Tarasenko stayed in the KHL for 3 years, Kuznetsov for 4. If Kravtsov plays another full year in the KHL, that's not necessarily a bad thing but fans are impatient. Once a prospect is signed, they expect that player to be ready. Barron is a full year older and will probably start in the AHL. Kravtsov was the only teenager playing for the Wolf Pack last season.

Ok. We need VK to be a top 6 player or to become an asset that helps in getting one.

Not a huge fan of the color coding, but this covers what I explained. If you look at the 7-11 range (fair comparison for a 9th overall pick), the likelihood of him turning into a top-6 player is less than 50%.

 

[kovazub94]

Philadelphia’s Rubtsov was loaned to Sochi.

 

[Synergy27]

Even more recently, and I keep harping on this, Tarasenko stayed in the KHL for 3 years, Kuznetsov for 4. If Kravtsov plays another full year in the KHL, that's not necessarily a bad thing but fans are impatient. Once a prospect is signed, they expect that player to be ready. Barron is a full year older and will probably start in the AHL. Kravtsov was the only teenager playing for the Wolf Pack last season.



Not a huge fan of the color coding, but this covers what I explained. If you look at the 7-11 range (fair comparison for a 9th overall pick), the likelihood of him turning into a top-6 player is less than 50%.

I understand and agree with your analysis. That said, the seeming miss with Andersson at 7 the year prior makes the VK pick all the more important. Yes, like a coin flip, missing the year before doesn’t affect the probability of hitting the following year, but it also doesn’t affect how important it is that the pick pans out.

Kakko and Lafreniere do affect how important it is that the pick pans out, but that was pure luck.

I want this kid to kick ass in Russia for as long as he needs to and then come over here and be a play driver.

 

[nyr2k2]

Even more recently, and I keep harping on this, Tarasenko stayed in the KHL for 3 years, Kuznetsov for 4. If Kravtsov plays another full year in the KHL, that's not necessarily a bad thing but fans are impatient. Once a prospect is signed, they expect that player to be ready. Barron is a full year older and will probably start in the AHL. Kravtsov was the only teenager playing for the Wolf Pack last season.



Not a huge fan of the color coding, but this covers what I explained. If you look at the 7-11 range (fair comparison for a 9th overall pick), the likelihood of him turning into a top-6 player is less than 50%.

Which is fine, but having Andersson heading towards bust territory, and with the past failures of McIlrath, Montoya, and Jessiman, the team is batting .000 on those picks in the range you referenced, and it has had a major negative impact on the franchise as we've been overly-reliant on free agency and trades for more veteran players to build our roster.

It may not be "fair" to Kravtsov to place added emphasis on the importance of him panning out, but it's just the reality given the past draft failures. Every time a high pick fails, it places more pressure on the next high pick to not fail, and there's where Kravtsov is. At some point we have to hit on one of these high picks, and we can no longer say, "Ah well, percentages were against the guy being a top-six player anyway!" Consistently missing on those high picks is an absolute back-breaker, since young, const-controlled talent is about the most important thing in the NHL. Kravtsov's success has nothing to do with Andersson or those other guys (maybe from a development standpoint, but not from the standpoint of one pick affecting another the next year), but it's just becoming more and more critical that we stop pissing away such valuable capital.

 

[mas0764]

Even more recently, and I keep harping on this, Tarasenko stayed in the KHL for 3 years, Kuznetsov for 4. If Kravtsov plays another full year in the KHL, that's not necessarily a bad thing but fans are impatient. Once a prospect is signed, they expect that player to be ready. Barron is a full year older and will probably start in the AHL. Kravtsov was the only teenager playing for the Wolf Pack last season.



Not a huge fan of the color coding, but this covers what I explained. If you look at the 7-11 range (fair comparison for a 9th overall pick), the likelihood of him turning into a top-6 player is less than 50%.

How far back does that table go?

Because I feel like in recent years there has been an uptick in the reliability of first round picks, especially early ones, as scouting improves.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Which is fine, but having Andersson heading towards bust territory, and with the past failures of McIlrath, Montoya, and Jessiman, the team is batting .000 on those picks in the range you referenced, and it has had a major negative impact on the franchise as we've been overly-reliant on free agency and trades for more veteran players to build our roster.

It may not be "fair" to Kravtsov to place added emphasis on the importance of him panning out, but it's just the reality given the past draft failures. Every time a high pick fails, it places more pressure on the next high pick to not fail, and there's where Kravtsov is. At some point we have to hit on one of these high picks, and we can no longer say, "Ah well, percentages were against the guy being a top-six player anyway!" Consistently missing on those high picks is an absolute back-breaker, since young, const-controlled talent is about the most important thing in the NHL. Kravtsov's success has nothing to do with Andersson or those other guys (maybe from a development standpoint, but not from the standpoint of one pick affecting another the next year), but it's just becoming more and more critical that we stop pissing away such valuable capital.

I get the McIlrath and Montoya criticism since those were bad picks on draft day. Jessiman isn't really the team's fault with his injuries but it does contribute.

Rangers are above average in the first round outside the top 10 though. Staal, Del Zotto, Kreider, Miller, Skjei and Chytil are all quality picks where they were drafted to varying degrees. The Lias pick is looking worse as time passes, but I can't help but look at the next handful of players picked and just shake my head at how bad that bunch is. Necas and Suzuki look good, but there's no way those would have been considered good picks on draft day. Looking back, the top-10 in 2017 was just really bad with the exception of 3, 4 and 5.

Kravtsov at age 20 really isn't near bust territory for me as he is entering his D+3 season. This upcoming season in the KHL will give us a good look at what he will be IMO. If he can lead a rejuvinated and completely overhauled Traktor team, and guide them to the play offs, we can consider that a success. Production-wise, his comparisons for success will be Tarasenko and Kuznetsov. Time will tell how that goes.

To circle back and round up this: Looking at other teams, and the duds they drafted in the top-15, it's remarkable how Ranger fans overlook picks like Pokulok, Koekkoek, Connolly, Filatov, Shenishyn, Zboril and others. It's easy to point to the shots in the dark later on that have worked, and top-3 picks such as Hedman, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Seguin etc. but at the end of the day every team is struggling to consistently hit homeruns in the draft. The grass is always greener on the other side though.

 

[nyr2k2]

I get the McIlrath and Montoya criticism since those were bad picks on draft day. Jessiman isn't really the team's fault with his injuries but it does contribute.

Rangers are above average in the first round outside the top 10 though. Staal, Del Zotto, Kreider, Miller, Skjei and Chytil are all quality picks where they were drafted to varying degrees. The Lias pick is looking worse as time passes, but I can't help but look at the next handful of players picked and just shake my head at how bad that bunch is. Necas and Suzuki look good, but there's no way those would have been considered good picks on draft day. Looking back, the top-10 in 2017 was just really bad with the exception of 3, 4 and 5.

Kravtsov at age 20 really isn't near bust territory for me as he is entering his D+3 season. This upcoming season in the KHL will give us a good look at what he will be IMO. If he can lead a rejuvinated and completely overhauled Traktor team, and guide them to the play offs, we can consider that a success. Production-wise, his comparisons for success will be Tarasenko and Kuznetsov. Time will tell how that goes.

To circle back and round up this: Looking at other teams, and the duds they drafted in the top-15, it's remarkable how Ranger fans overlook picks like Pokulok, Koekkoek, Connolly, Filatov, Shenishyn, Zboril and others. It's easy to point to the shots in the dark later on that have worked, and top-3 picks such as Hedman, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Seguin etc. but at the end of the day every team is struggling to consistently hit homeruns in the draft. The grass is always greener on the other side though.

Jessiman was a questionable pick, injuries aside, but we don't need to go there.

Necas and Suzuki were all ranked in the exact same general area as Andersson, so I don't really know how they'd be considered any worse than Andersson as a pick. I'm not trying to play the hindsight game here--we picked who we liked. Unfortunately our pick was not good. It happens, I get that. And I have always pointed out that we do a decent job in the middle rounds. It's not a full-on indictment of our drafting.

However, we just cannot continue to miss on the high picks. Those are so, so valuable. I'm not suggesting that Kravtsov is on his way to becoming a bust, but if that happened, it would be really damaging to the team as that's back-to-back top ten picks that we missed on. I understand that other teams also miss, but I'm talking about our team. A miss with Kravtsov would be five consecutive missed high picks which will really set a franchise back, even if you do well with later picks.

There is extra pressure on the team and maybe on Kravtsov himself to pan out. I don't know how that's an argument at this point.

 

[Tawnos]

The ironic thing is that Montoya turned out to be one of the better picks in the 6-10 range, but that says more about that 6-10 range than it does about Montoya or the Rangers selection of him.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Necas and Suzuki were all ranked in the exact same general area as Andersson, so I don't really know how they'd be considered any worse than Andersson as a pick.

Yeah, Andersson's mean ranking across 6 or 8 well known sites was 12.5 I believe. There were a bunch of guys that would have been received better, and a handful similarly.

Personally, I wouldn't have been particularly happy with Necas or Suzuki, but I wouldn't have lost my shit like I did with Lias (though I do think he was a better pick on draft than I first judged him to be).

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I don't believe he will bust or anything, he clearly just needs more time to season.

I think both the team and himself overestimated his readiness to come play in North America. But there's not much that you can do about it, he wanted to come over and the Rangers weren't going to say no to having direct control over his development

Let him play the entirety of the KHL season and evaluate from there. If he doesn't play a minute for the Rangers next season, so be it. The biggest issue now is that they've essentially wasted his ELC which would have been valuable in the flat cap world, but not much you can do about it.

I'm not nearly worried about Kravstov as I was Lias. With Lias you could tell pretty quickly the Rangers may have regretted that pick lol

 

[cwede]

I don't believe he will bust or anything, he clearly just needs more time to season.
I think both the team and himself overestimated his readiness to come play in North America. But there's not much that you can do about it, he wanted to come over and the Rangers weren't going to say no to having direct control over his development
Let him play the entirety of the KHL season and evaluate from there. If he doesn't play a minute for the Rangers next season, so be it. The biggest issue now is that they've essentially wasted his ELC which would have been valuable in the flat cap world, but not much you can do about it.
I'm not nearly worried about Kravstov as I was Lias. With Lias you could tell pretty quickly the Rangers may have regretted that pick lol

can't change the past,
but if both Lias and Krav had played full seasons w Pack last year, both would be closer to ready,
icetime opened up thru the season w Chytil callup, Meskanen bailout, Fontaine injury, LZG trade, PDG callup, Gropp/Ronning/Elmer demotions, Boo/Getts/Beleskey missing games, etc

 

[nyr2k2]

can't change the past,
but if both Lias and Krav had played full seasons w Pack last year, both would be closer to ready,
icetime opened up thru the season w Chytil callup, Meskanen bailout, Fontaine injury, LZG trade, PDG callup, Gropp/Ronning/Elmer demotions, Boo/Getts/Beleskey missing games, etc

Yeah Hartford was really starved for offensive talent last year, particularly as you mentioned as things dragged on. Unfortunately Lias didn't want to do it and Kravtsov struggled to adapt.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

can't change the past,
but if both Lias and Krav had played full seasons w Pack last year, both would be closer to ready,
icetime opened up thru the season w Chytil callup, Meskanen bailout, Fontaine injury, LZG trade, PDG callup, Gropp/Ronning/Elmer demotions, Boo/Getts/Beleskey missing games, etc

Probably but them's the breaks

Yeah Hartford was really starved for offensive talent last year, particularly as you mentioned as things dragged on. Unfortunately Lias didn't want to do it and Kravtsov struggled to adapt.

For sure. Although I think the Rangers may be less worried about Kravstov than they were Lias. You can see flashes with Kravstov and with the addition of Kakko and Lafreniere, there's no need to rush him.

Lias the team was worried as soon as Traverse was over after he got drafted. I believe it was @Kovalev27 that said Gordie looked like he just realized he got sold a bad time share lol. And as someone that saw that infamous video, it's dead on haha

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

If Chytil becomes a top 6 player and Lundkvist + Miller pan out then Lias and Kravtsov busting (not saying they both will, but its a possibility) hurts less, although still a really ugly look for a rebuilding team to miss in the top 10 twice in a row. Guess thats why its important to stock up on 1st rounders like we've been doing.

 

[eco's bones]

Even more recently, and I keep harping on this, Tarasenko stayed in the KHL for 3 years, Kuznetsov for 4. If Kravtsov plays another full year in the KHL, that's not necessarily a bad thing but fans are impatient. Once a prospect is signed, they expect that player to be ready. Barron is a full year older and will probably start in the AHL. Kravtsov was the only teenager playing for the Wolf Pack last season.



Not a huge fan of the color coding, but this covers what I explained. If you look at the 7-11 range (fair comparison for a 9th overall pick), the likelihood of him turning into a top-6 player is less than 50%.

• There are advantages that Barron would have over Kravtsov though not in the skills department. Barron has size and strength and he's older and depending how camp went could end up on our 4th line if he can prove himself reliable enough defensively. I kind of look at guys like Richards and Khodorenko that way too. Richards had two straight national college championships and two straight defensive forward of the year in his college conference and he is a face-off guy. If his competition for a job is Howden, McKegg, Fogarty I could see him having a legit chance at beating them out. We're talking mainly about the mucker, grinder, unappreciated jobs--to me that's not what we want from Kravtsov or even Julien Gauthier for that matter. These are potential solutions from within the organization for our depth forward issues.