Prospect Info: Vitali Kravtsov: Part VIII

[Tawnos]

If Chytil becomes a top 6 player and Lundkvist + Miller pan out then Lias and Kravtsov busting (not saying they both will, but its a possibility) hurts less, although still a really ugly look for a rebuilding team to miss in the top 10 twice in a row. Guess thats why its important to stock up on 1st rounders like we've been doing.

Yeah, this is pretty close my feeling about this stuff. You're always relying on a pretty heavy dose of luck in a rebuild. Whether that luck is winning draft lotteries, or having guys outside the top-5 picks develop into difference making NHLers. Neither are things you can assume you'll get, but with the latter.. at least you can stock up on players and hope you get some hits. That's really been the approach for the Rangers... except we've now hit on 2 lottery wins.

That underlying plan of getting a ton of quantity in the organization already existed, which means conceivably we can get the best of both worlds.

I think we got an microcosm of that kind of quantity planning earlier this year. We've been drafting and acquiring defense really heavily during this whole thing, so our system is somewhat unbalanced, leaving many to wonder if we're going to have a problem developing players for the bottom-6. So how to address it? Well, they traded one of their D prospects for a young forward and also went out and signed 3 college UDFAs to shore up the system. We're all well aware of the small chance these guys develop into NHLers, but a farm system that includes four more guys is more likely to than a system that doesn't. It's all about building up that quantity.

I'm really curious how the position balance goes among the 9 picks we have that aren't 1oa. Wouldn't be surprised to see more forwards this year.

 

[eco's bones]

I get the McIlrath and Montoya criticism since those were bad picks on draft day. Jessiman isn't really the team's fault with his injuries but it does contribute.

Rangers are above average in the first round outside the top 10 though. Staal, Del Zotto, Kreider, Miller, Skjei and Chytil are all quality picks where they were drafted to varying degrees. The Lias pick is looking worse as time passes, but I can't help but look at the next handful of players picked and just shake my head at how bad that bunch is. Necas and Suzuki look good, but there's no way those would have been considered good picks on draft day. Looking back, the top-10 in 2017 was just really bad with the exception of 3, 4 and 5.

Kravtsov at age 20 really isn't near bust territory for me as he is entering his D+3 season. This upcoming season in the KHL will give us a good look at what he will be IMO. If he can lead a rejuvinated and completely overhauled Traktor team, and guide them to the play offs, we can consider that a success. Production-wise, his comparisons for success will be Tarasenko and Kuznetsov. Time will tell how that goes.

To circle back and round up this: Looking at other teams, and the duds they drafted in the top-15, it's remarkable how Ranger fans overlook picks like Pokulok, Koekkoek, Connolly, Filatov, Shenishyn, Zboril and others. It's easy to point to the shots in the dark later on that have worked, and top-3 picks such as Hedman, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Seguin etc. but at the end of the day every team is struggling to consistently hit homeruns in the draft. The grass is always greener on the other side though.

Looking at the 2004 draft--there was Ovechkin at 1. and Malkin at 2. and then Gretzky shocked everyone at 5. by reaching for Blake Wheeler. I remember loads of people and the the experts being stunned by that one. The rest of the top 10 including Montoya either busted or underwhelmed and there were some really good players from that draft but the first round is chock full of busts and guys who underwhelmed. Of the three Finns Tukkonen and Nokelainen came with big expectations and Korpikoski was kind of the third wheel but turned out to be the best of them.

 

[JCProdigy]

If Chytil becomes a top 6 player and Lundkvist + Miller pan out then Lias and Kravtsov busting (not saying they both will, but its a possibility) hurts less, although still a really ugly look for a rebuilding team to miss in the top 10 twice in a row. Guess thats why its important to stock up on 1st rounders like we've been doing.

Chicago Blackhawks:

2006: Toews 3rd overall
2007: Kane 1st overall

but before that...
2004: Cam Barker 3rd overall
2005: Jack Skille 7th overall

Tampa Bay Lightning:

2008: Stamkos 1st overall
2009: Hedman 2nd overall

but after that....
2010: Connolly 6th overall
2012: Slater Koekkoek 10th overall
2013: Drouin 3rd overall (lucky to trade him)

I guess what I'm saying is if the NYR hit on both Kakko and Laf and the later picks you've mentioned then Kravtsov and Andersson not becoming top 6 contributors shouldn't necessarily stop them from becoming a top tier team.

 

[JohnC]

Chicago Blackhawks:

2006: Toews 3rd overall
2007: Kane 1st overall

but before that...
2004: Cam Barker 3rd overall
2005: Jack Skille 7th overall

Tampa Bay Lightning:

2008: Stamkos 1st overall
2009: Hedman 2nd overall

but after that....
2010: Connolly 6th overall
2012: Slater Koekkoek 10th overall
2013: Drouin 3rd overall (lucky to trade him)

I guess what I'm saying is if the NYR hit on both Kakko and Laf and the later picks you've mentioned then Kravtsov and Andersson not becoming top 6 contributors shouldn't necessarily stop them from becoming a top tier team.

Kings had a few stinkers in there before the cups as well, iirc.

 

[n8]

Kings had a few stinkers in there before the cups as well, iirc.

mixed - they had the likes of Doughty, Dustin Brown, Kopitar, Pearson in the 1st round.
key 2nd, 3rd and 4th round draft picks included Tyfolli, Quick, Alec Martinez, Voynov
key acquisitions were Carter, Williams, Richards

They also drafted Grebeshkov, Brian Boyle, Jeff Tambellini (all played in the NHL), Jonathan Bernier (traded to Leafs), Lauri Tukonen (5 games played), Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn (the last two traded for Richards), Teubert, Thomas Hickey (they lost him on waivers, lol), Kyle Clifford.
They missed on a few but by far they managed at least NHL players in many of those picks and they drafted a lot of key contributors to their Stanley Cup roster in later rounds or key pieces used to acquire the Philly boys for Darryl Sutter.

In the same period (2002-2012), the Rangers traded a lot of their firsts away. Our list is like
Jessiman, Montoya, Korpikoski, Staal, Sanguinetti, Cherepanov (RIP), MDZ, Kreider, McIlrath, JT Miller, Skjei
supporting picks outside of the first?
Stepan, Hagelin, Fast, Anisimov, Sauer, Dubinsky, Callahan, Dawes, Prucha
Key UFAs - Zuccarello, Hayes, Girardi
Key acquisitions - Nash, Brassard, MSL, McD, Klein, Boyle, Yandle

Lundqvist falls out of the range I randomly picked.

 

[Synergy27]

Looking at the 2004 draft--there was Ovechkin at 1. and Malkin at 2. and then Gretzky shocked everyone at 5. by reaching for Blake Wheeler. I remember loads of people and the the experts being stunned by that one. The rest of the top 10 including Montoya either busted or underwhelmed and there were some really good players from that draft but the first round is chock full of busts and guys who underwhelmed. Of the three Finns Tukkonen and Nokelainen came with big expectations and Korpikoski was kind of the third wheel but turned out to be the best of them.

Man, that Finn line was something else that year. As was the sure to bust but fun to watch Robbie Schremp.

 

[ElLeetch]

Man, that Finn line was something else that year. As was the sure to bust but fun to watch Robbie Schremp.

its amazing how they all bombed.

 

[kovazub94]

TBH, I’d hold the team more responsible for picking Kravtsov than Lias due to surrounding circumstances.

It felt that 2017 selections was hastily rushed (yeah, I know) after Gorton and Co had been surprised / frustrated that all of the prospects they hoped to be available at 7 were gone from the board. My only question here is since they obviously scouted Chytil, why did they pass on Necas?

In 2018 on the other hand, Kravtsov has always been their target guy and very highly ranked as we saw when Dobson and Wahlstrom unexpectedly “dropped” and were available at 10.

 

[NYSPORTS]

Ok. We need VK to be a top 6 player or to become an asset that helps in getting one.

i agree, he does. All this talk about “playing with men” and statistically comparing him to NHL stars, hype it up etc. Now a chart gets pulled out the sky as if some knew the odds on him even being a Top 6 forward were/are minimal. Good lord, might as well shut down the Nils Lindqvist hype.

 

[Levitate]

TBH, I’d hold the team more responsible for picking Kravtsov than Lias due to surrounding circumstances.

It felt that 2017 selections was hastily rushed (yeah, I know) after Gorton and Co had been surprised / frustrated that all of the prospects they hoped to be available at 7 were gone from the board. My only question here is since they obviously scouted Chytil, why did they pass on Necas?

I don't think it works that way...even if they're surprised or frustrated about who got taken, they're not scrambling to make up their minds about someone else, they have a list they'll work down...If they only made a list a few guys deep and had to scramble to come up with who they were going to pick then the whole management and scouting staff need to be fire yesterday because that's just plain mismanagement.

In 2018 on the other hand, Kravtsov has always been their target guy and very highly ranked as we saw when Dobson and Wahlstrom unexpectedly “dropped” and were available at 10.

Nothing wrong with the Kravtsov pick so far at this point? He didn't jump into the NHL at 19 years old are we really holding him to be a bust now? Wahlstrom's not doing a ton. Dobson is playing but when I've watched him I've been underwhelmed (not sure he's really ready for the NHL).
I think Kravtsov kinda rushed himself and to some extent we probably got overexcited based on some reports form people here.
Nothing wrong with giving him the time he needs to develop

 

[kovazub94]

I don't think it works that way...even if they're surprised or frustrated about who got taken, they're not scrambling to make up their minds about someone else, they have a list they'll work down...If they only made a list a few guys deep and had to scramble to come up with who they were going to pick then the whole management and scouting staff need to be fire yesterday because that's just plain mismanagement.



Nothing wrong with the Kravtsov pick so far at this point? He didn't jump into the NHL at 19 years old are we really holding him to be a bust now? Wahlstrom's not doing a ton. Dobson is playing but when I've watched him I've been underwhelmed (not sure he's really ready for the NHL).
I think Kravtsov kinda rushed himself and to some extent we probably got overexcited based on some reports form people here.
Nothing wrong with giving him the time he needs to develop

With respect to the bolded, while I agree that there was the list (obviously) , I don't think at that point the order was "set" cut & dry as with those prospects that had been taken by then.

Re. Kravtsov, I just wanted to clarify that I had zero intention to imply that there's anything wrong at this point (other than posters wishing he was already an NHL all-star). I was saying that if we were to judge Gorton's front office on these two picks - I'd be harsher in judging 2018 than 2017, that's all.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

TBH, I’d hold the team more responsible for picking Kravtsov than Lias due to surrounding circumstances.

It felt that 2017 selections was hastily rushed (yeah, I know) after Gorton and Co had been surprised / frustrated that all of the prospects they hoped to be available at 7 were gone from the board. My only question here is since they obviously scouted Chytil, why did they pass on Necas?

In 2018 on the other hand, Kravtsov has always been their target guy and very highly ranked as we saw when Dobson and Wahlstrom unexpectedly “dropped” and were available at 10.

I can see what you mean. Kravtsov was their 2nd highest rated forward in that draft after Svechnikov

 

[kovazub94]

I can see what you mean. Kravtsov was their 2nd highest rated forward in that draft after Svechnikov

Yeah, even if take this statement with a pound of salt, I'm' sure they were already expecting that Svech, Tkachuk and Zadina would be off the board.

 

[Tawnos]

Yeah, even if take this statement with a pound of salt, I'm' sure they were already expecting that Svech, Tkachuk and Zadina would be off the board.

I think the Red Wings were shocked Zadina was available even for them.

 

[Edge]

Yeah, even if take this statement with a pound of salt, I'm' sure they were already expecting that Svech, Tkachuk and Zadina would be off the board.

Maybe/maybe not.

There were quite a few people who noted that if Kravtsov put the pieces together, he could be one of the best players in the 2018 draft --- especially given time to cook.

It's quite possible, even plausible, that the Rangers rated Kravtsov's D+5 abilities higher than the other forwards in the draft.

I say that because a lot of rankings aren't based on who the best player is on draft day, it's based on who the best player is 5 or 10 years later.

I also think sometimes we assume there are these huge gaps between player ratings. And I can tell you from experience that sometimes they almost look like track and field differences. One guy is a fraction better, or just slightly ahead.

That's why the difference between 1 and 4 in a draft could be gigantic, while the difference between 4 and 10 could be reasonably small.

 

[kovazub94]

Maybe/maybe not.

There were quite a few people who noted that if Kravtsov put the pieces together, he could be one of the best players in the 2018 draft --- especially given time to cook.

It's quite possible, even plausible, that the Rangers rated Kravtsov's D+5 abilities higher than the other forwards in the draft.

I say that because of rankings aren't based on who the best player is on draft day, it's based on who the best player is 5 or 10 years later.

I also think sometimes we assume there are these huge gaps between player ratings. And I can tell you from experience that sometimes they almost look like track and field differences. One guy is a fraction better, or just slightly ahead.

That's why the difference between 1 and 4 in a draft could be gigantic, while the difference between 4 and 10 could be reasonably small.

Possibly, but this is not here or there to verify. My point was that Kravtsov was their locked #1 choice at their spot and so there was very little "last minute" discussion when they were put on time, while I bet it wasn't the case for Lias vs possible alternatives.

 

[Edge]

Possibly, but this is not here or there to verify. My point was that Kravtsov was their locked #1 choice at there spot and so there was very little "last minute" discussion when they were put on time, while I bet it wasn't the case for Lias vs possible alternatives.

I would agree with that.

The Rangers loved the US kids that year, but they had Kravtsov ahead of them. When he was up, it was an easy decision for them.

I don't think there was that kind of lust for Andersson. I know Pettersson was the clear target, I think Glass was option B for them. I thought Vilardi could've been a target, but I think the injuries scared them off. To that extent, I still don't know what Vilardi's future holds.

But you're correct in the sense that we could be comparing their 7th ranked prospect in a weaker draft to their third ranked prospect in a deeper one. And that gap as to how they rated both players, as we discussed, could've been far bigger than a difference of just several draft slots.

For example, Kravtsov could've been a kid they rated an 8.5, while Andersson scored an 8.

 

[NYSPORTS]

The Rangers loved the US kids that year, but they had Kravtsov ahead of them. When he was up, it was an easy decision for them.

.

i thought the Rangers may have passed on a Mike Bossy when Wahlstrom went to the Isles. The kid might turn out to be Pavel Brendl.

 

[Levitate]

i thought the Rangers may have passed on a Mike Bossy when Wahlstrom went to the Isles. The kid might turn out to be Pavel Brendl.

Still just 2 years out, tough to know for sure what we or the Isles have. I think we sometimes still have unrealistic expectations for kids drafted in the top half of the draft...even though they might be top 10 that doesn't mean they're going to jump into the NHL when they're still teenager.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Still just 2 years out, tough to know for sure what we or the Isles have. I think we sometimes still have unrealistic expectations for kids drafted in the top half of the draft...even though they might be top 10 that doesn't mean they're going to jump into the NHL when they're still teenager.

Look at how long it takes kids in the 5-20 range to become NHL regulars. Kreider, drafted 19th overall in 2009, wasn't an NHL regular until the 2013-14 season despite his crazy few games in 2012.

Granlund, drafted 9th overall, played 3 full seasons in Liiga before even coming over to North America.

Tarasenko, drafted 14th overall was in the KHL for 3 full seasons after his draft.

Kadri played for Toronto but wasn't really a contributor until his D+4. Same with Brayden Schenn.

 

[Tawnos]

Look at how long it takes kids in the 5-20 range to become NHL regulars. Kreider, drafted 19th overall in 2009, wasn't an NHL regular until the 2013-14 season despite his crazy few games in 2012.

Granlund, drafted 9th overall, played 3 full seasons in Liiga before even coming over to North America.

Tarasenko, drafted 14th overall was in the KHL for 3 full seasons after his draft.

Kadri played for Toronto but wasn't really a contributor until his D+4. Same with Brayden Schenn.

It’s why I was super interested to see what happened with Andersson this coming season, but I think Covid really messed that up.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It’s why I was super interested to see what happened with Andersson this coming season, but I think Covid really messed that up.

Unfortunately, yes. But Hayes and Kuznetsov only made the NHL in their D+5 for various reasons so there's hope

 

[Barnaby]

I think many get ahead of themselves. I’m still hopeful for VK but obviously it’s disappointing hearing all offseason how the Calder Trophy was going to be a two horse race between Kakko and VK like we were going to be watching a Mantle/Maris race. Then you see Lias look woefully unprepared and Kravstov struggling in the AHL after people pointing out that he had a better KHL scoring rate to Tarasenko and Ovechkin. Kakko showed flashes at least.

I also find it fascinating that Ranger draft apologists are acting like striking out on consecutive top ten picks in a rebuild is very excusable. Sure, not every pick is going to hit their max ceiling but potentially walking away after striking out on consecutive top ten picks is a recipe for disaster especially amidst a rebuild. You’re looking for future core players and quality players on ELC’s. Fortunately, this team won two lottery’s amidst years of poor luck, otherwise this might be a MUCH bigger issue.

I’m not saying VK is finished or anything - he’s still a kid. However, there is certainly some cause for concern.

 

[broadwayblue]

Lot for Kravtsov to prove. He's still young but it would be nice to see strong progression.

 

[dshea19]

I have no worries about VK. It is still too early. He started off poorly and left, but came back and did the right things. I wouldn't worry about his numbers in the AHL. He was playing with a bunch of guys who are grinders and can't shoot. I went to a Checkers v Wolfpack game. You could tell that the tools and skill are there and that none of the guys he plays with can see the game the way he does and convert on his passes. I felt bad for him.

Also, the Rangers were very happy with his play during this recent camp. I really think that as he adds adult muscle and gets in the reps in NA, he will be just fine. Then it really becomes an issue of him becoming a guy who rivals Kakko, a very good 2nd line winger, or a 2nd/3rd tweener. He is still young, but he is trending in the right direction.