Vegas Could Wheel and Deal NHL Defensemen

[Dabeast]

This is the first time I've heard someone say that a player doesn't need to be protected due to injury. Clarkson has a NMC - which means unless he waives it (he probably would), he needs to be protected.

I'm pretty sure if a player with a NMC has a career ending injury he is exempt. If you use the expansion draft tool on capfriendly it shows Clarkson as exempt.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

 

[Curufinwe]

This is the first time I've heard someone say that a player doesn't need to be protected due to injury. Clarkson has a NMC - which means unless he waives it (he probably would), he needs to be protected.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

If Clarkson has to be protected, so will Clowe.

Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

CapFriendly has incorporated the injury exemption for players like that into their Expansion draft.

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft

Injured Players

Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed the previous 60+ consecutive games do to an injury, do not meet the criteria set forth by the league in respect to the minimum exposure requirements for players, and in certain cases these players may even be deemed as exempt from the Expansion Draft selection process.

 

[beowulf]

Yeah, the assumptions are a bit much. I don't like that we're supposed to assume that teams just allow themselves to lose key players. Let's face it, Anaheim would move Fowler before they lost him in the draft. You can't afford to just give away a 24 year old top pairing defenseman. You especially can't afford to give him away to a division rival. That's what Vegas will be. Anaheim doesn't want to be seeing Cam Fowler on the ice against them. They know better than anyone how good he is.

Even if we head into it trying not to assume that Anaheim will make Bieksa waive(or buy him out), that's just not good management. If it really got to that point, just for the sake of argument, they'd move him for good picks and prospects.

Indeed, and unless he totally flops this season, how can someone suggest that Matt Murray would be left unprotected after he just led the Pens to a Cup?

 

[Jeti]

From what I recall, they have to protect three of their defenseman (Suter/Scandella/Spurgeon/Dumba/Brodin). If they move Brodin, they'd still lose one of their defensemen. They either keep all five or trade two IMO.

Also, not going to click on the article but wanted to see what people thought of the Senators expansion protection. The first five forwards are pretty much locks for protection while the last two are who I think will be protected.

Turris / Ryan / Stone / Brassard / Hoffman / Pageau / Dzingel
Karlsson / Phaneuf / Ceci
Anderson

This would leave the following notable players exposed: Methot, MacArthur, Lazar, Smith and Wideman. Who do you pick if you're Las Vegas? My bet is Methot but I wouldn't be surprised to see Lazar claimed.

Hypothetically, if your list is correct, I'd assume Vegas takes Lazar over Methot. Younger players will be more attractive for them and they'll have plenty of #4 D to choose from.

 

[Mr Misty]

Hypothetically, if your list is correct, I'd assume Vegas takes Lazar over Methot. Younger players will be more attractive for them and they'll have plenty of #4 D to choose from.

I believe there is some merit to the idea behind the article (but don't intend to read it), namely that Vegas can maximize value by taking more defensemen. There are too many forwards out there as is, and creating 13 or 14 new jobs via expansion isn't really going to have an impact on trade values. Meanwhile there is always a long list of teams that need another 2nd pairing option.

Essentially they take n 2nd pairing defensemen and trade n - 6 into the new market of n teams that just had a 2nd pairing hole open up on their bluelines. Simple supply and demand mechanics should allow a new team to secure a good haul of futures or exempt/protected forwards.

In the example given take Methot and trade Klein to Ottawa for Lazar+.

 

[indigobuffalo]

The goal of the expansion draft is to build a legitimate SC contender out of the gate. They won't be looking to wheel and deal for picks to get 24 picks in 2017-18.


Gotta disagree completely with the author.

And Anaheim won't expose Fowler.

We will definitely see some movement prior to the deadline.

And as for garnering so many draft picks, isn't LV guaranteed the highest seeded lottery position in 2017+18 regardless of how they finish?

They aren't too worried about the "future".

And 30 expansion draft picks are not all going to be for veterans, many will be for prospects so this will be a very accelerated build.

Should be exciting to see this team assemble itself.

 

[deckercky]

We will definitely see some movement prior to the deadline.

It'll be interesting - there'll surely be some movement, but:
1.) Selling teams will still need to expose players; and
2.) Buying teams will likely have to expose decent players if they acquire extra pieces.

The truth is that some solid (but not exceptional) players will be exposed, and the likely result is that Vegas starts with a pretty good goaltender and incredible defensive depth that they can move around the league to the highest bidder.

 

[Riptide]

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

If Clarkson has to be protected, so will Clowe.



CapFriendly has incorporated the injury exemption for players like that into their Expansion draft.

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft

Unfortunately that's not quite what the rules say.

* Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

Says they cannot be used to meet the exposure requirements (so say a goalie missed 60 games this season, they cannot be the goalie exposed in the draft). But neither does it say that the player is exempted from being protected. I can see how one would look at that and assume that's the case, but that's not quite what it says (even if that's the how the NHL decides to implement it).

That said, there's really no reason why those players would not waive their NMC - as there's no chance they'd be taken.

 

[Riptide]

The goal of the expansion draft is to build a legitimate SC contender out of the gate. They won't be looking to wheel and deal for picks to get 24 picks in 2017-18.

And as for garnering so many draft picks, isn't LV guaranteed the highest seeded lottery position in 2017+18 regardless of how they finish?

They aren't too worried about the "future".

The goal of the expansion draft is to give the team a reasonable base from which to start playing with in the 17/18 season. It's also justification to the new owners as to why the NHL charged them 500 million to join. Previous expansion teams paid 80m and got to pick **** (and then sucked for a decade). LV gets to pick quality and will (if all goes well) only suck for several years.

You're fooling yourself if you believe this will be the case. As for getting more draft picks, LV will absolutely attempt to do so. If you think they're not "worried about the future" then I should probably stop here (but I won't because I can't resist and bc I'm paid by the hour). LV absolutely has to be worried about the future - and even more so then any other team in the league. Columbus, Florida, Carolina, Arizona or any other team that's struggling today still has 2-5 years worth of prospects in their system who going forward still have the potential to help their franchise. And more importantly their fans base is already established. They have a bad season, and they're still going to get 10k+ STH renewing their tickets as long as things look bright, and because of their past drafts they can always point to that as a selling point for the future. LV doesn't have that luxury. Sure they'll get a grace period for maybe 3 seasons. After that things had better be on the rise to the point where they're pushing for the playoffs (or beyond) on a regular basis or things will get really tough for them.

And my personal thoughts is that even if everything goes great for LV... it's still likely going to take 4-5 years before they're a team worth talking about (with regards to their on ice abilities). If they mess up a draft (especially one of the first two drafts), that's going to really set them back. They may do what FLA did and make the playoffs prior to that, but the only way they'll sustain any success is if they can quickly build up their prospect pool (aka draft picks).

 

[Crede777]

Says they cannot be used to meet the exposure requirements (so say a goalie missed 60 games this season, they cannot be the goalie exposed in the draft). But neither does it say that the player is exempted from being protected. I can see how one would look at that and assume that's the case, but that's not quite what it says (even if that's the how the NHL decides to implement it).

That said, there's really no reason why those players would not waive their NMC - as there's no chance they'd be taken.

This is a case where we defer the literal language of the rule to the intention of the rule which is to not force teams to use a protection slot on a player whose career is potentially over.

 

[Viqsi]

This is a case where we defer the literal language of the rule to the intention of the rule which is to not force teams to use a protection slot on a player whose career is potentially over.

But but but but but I WANT COLUMBUS TO BE SCREWED DAMNIT


EDIT: It's kind of funny how this "literal interpretation of the rules" stuff ONLY ever comes up when it's Clarkson and Columbus. Clowe and the Devils? Nope. Horton and the Leafs? Nope. I suppose one could excuse Franzen and the Wings, since he doesn't have an NMC, or Pronger and the Coyotes since that contract ends after this year...

 

[RichBaster]

Says they cannot be used to meet the exposure requirements (so say a goalie missed 60 games this season, they cannot be the goalie exposed in the draft). But neither does it say that the player is exempted from being protected. I can see how one would look at that and assume that's the case, but that's not quite what it says (even if that's the how the NHL decides to implement it).

That said, there's really no reason why those players would not waive their NMC - as there's no chance they'd be taken.

Actually re-read that last sentence which states:

Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

Its likely the NHL will not require teams to protect those injured players even if they have a NMC (it doesnt say will definitely but does say "may" which indicates the league, team & PA likely already agreed to this).

 

[Curufinwe]

It serves no purpose for the league to force a team like the Devils to protect Ryan Clowe. They've already suffered enough from his injury.

 

[Doug Gilmour]

The writer of the article is going to be very disappointed come the end of the expansion draft. Many of those named will be protected or traded and then protected by their new team.

I love how he also names teams who be calling about D-men from Vegas instantly. Do some research and look into the pipelines for those teams first before making those bold statements.

 

[Pennaduck]

The goal of the expansion draft is to give the team a reasonable base from which to start playing with in the 17/18 season. It's also justification to the new owners as to why the NHL charged them 500 million to join. Previous expansion teams paid 80m and got to pick **** (and then sucked for a decade). LV gets to pick quality and will (if all goes well) only suck for several years.

You're fooling yourself if you believe this will be the case. As for getting more draft picks, LV will absolutely attempt to do so. If you think they're not "worried about the future" then I should probably stop here (but I won't because I can't resist and bc I'm paid by the hour). LV absolutely has to be worried about the future - and even more so then any other team in the league. Columbus, Florida, Carolina, Arizona or any other team that's struggling today still has 2-5 years worth of prospects in their system who going forward still have the potential to help their franchise. And more importantly their fans base is already established. They have a bad season, and they're still going to get 10k+ STH renewing their tickets as long as things look bright, and because of their past drafts they can always point to that as a selling point for the future. LV doesn't have that luxury. Sure they'll get a grace period for maybe 3 seasons. After that things had better be on the rise to the point where they're pushing for the playoffs (or beyond) on a regular basis or things will get really tough for them.

And my personal thoughts is that even if everything goes great for LV... it's still likely going to take 4-5 years before they're a team worth talking about (with regards to their on ice abilities). If they mess up a draft (especially one of the first two drafts), that's going to really set them back. They may do what FLA did and make the playoffs prior to that, but the only way they'll sustain any success is if they can quickly build up their prospect pool (aka draft picks).

I agree with what you are saying. Vegas would be foolish to try to build their team from the players they get to draft. Sure some of them will become core pieces, particularly some young RFAs I am sure they will get in the draft, but a lot of those players that look to be exposed are going to done their current contracts in a year or two after Vegas drafts them.

Assuming by some miracle Vegas does get to select a Cam Fowler or a Marc Methot, does anyone believe these players will re-sign when their current contracts expire? They will be UFA, and will look for the best deal out there, which may or may not come from Vegas. It's a risky move to try to bank on building a team on assets that may not be there long term.

If they tried to build their team like this it would be, at best, a one and done playoffs appearance followed by a lengthy rebuild. They are far better off just trading most of the players they select for picks/prospects, retaining a few nice RFA players to build around, and focus on getting as many 1st and 2nd round picks as possible over the next two or three years.

 

[leaflover]

I was listening to NHL satellite radio earlier today and they mentioned something about a site that was set up (I guess) to build an expansion team. Was anybody else listening to that? My signal cut out as I was entering a canyon and the segment was over when it game back.
It may have just been something McPhee had created to help him and his staff piece a team together but it sure would be fun to try for yourself.

 

[uncleben]

I was listening to NHL satellite radio earlier today and they mentioned something about a site that was set up (I guess) to build an expansion team. Was anybody else listening to that? My signal cut out as I was entering a canyon and the segment was over when it game back.
It may have just been something McPhee had created to help him and his staff piece a team together but it sure would be fun to try for yourself.

I'm not too sure, but CapFriendly has an expansion tool now

 

[leaflover]

I'm not too sure, but CapFriendly has an expansion tool now

That may be what they were referring to. Either way it sounds interesting and i'll check it out.
Thanks.

 

[indigobuffalo]

I was listening to NHL satellite radio earlier today and they mentioned something about a site that was set up (I guess) to build an expansion team. Was anybody else listening to that? My signal cut out as I was entering a canyon and the segment was over when it game back.
It may have just been something McPhee had created to help him and his staff piece a team together but it sure would be fun to try for yourself.

I'm pretty sure that's why they hired the creator of General Fanager.

There are so many simulations to run, figuring out who to pick. You have to consider each selection from so many angles.

A lot of GMa will hope the expansion draft affords them cap relief by having Vegas take a higher cap hit player, so McPhee would need to do the leg-work to see if BPA is the best choice or if there are strategic benefits to selecting other options.

 

[leaflover]

I'm pretty sure that's why they hired the creator of General Fanager.

There are so many simulations to run, figuring out who to pick. You have to consider each selection from so many angles.

A lot of GMa will hope the expansion draft affords them cap relief by having Vegas take a higher cap hit player, so McPhee would need to do the leg-work to see if BPA is the best choice or if there are strategic benefits to selecting other options.

Right. From what I heard it was a very thorough program that literally covered every angle of players/salaries etc. an expansion team should consider.
I suspect if they hired somebody to develop a program like this it will remain top secret and for Knights?? management eyes only.

 

[Mr Misty]

Right. From what I heard it was a very thorough program that literally covered every angle of players/salaries etc. an expansion team should consider.
I suspect if they hired somebody to develop a program like this it will remain top secret and for Knights?? management eyes only.

None of this is a secret, many people could produce an accurate expansion draft tool.

 

[KPower]

Las Vegas will be a garbage team.

The league gave the 30 teams too much time to plan a strategy.

 

[vipernsx]

I laughed and stopped reading when I saw that Zadorov would be left unprotected.

Lost me at...

Consider talented prospects .....Griffin Reinhart (Edmonton)

...talk about clueless

 

[leaflover]

None of this is a secret, many people could produce an accurate expansion draft tool.

Of course.
However, I really doubt Las Vegas shares their strategy with everyone and anyone though. Pretty good chance they'll keep their strategies to themselves, don't you think?