Value of Andrew MacDonald

[redbull]

this board's love for "the next prospect" is unbelievable at times.

what has ANYONE in this organization shown that make Andrew MacDonald even remotely expendable? It wasn't too long ago that Aaron Ness and Ty Wishart were knocking on the door.

MacDonald's been a warrior for this team and overachieved since he got into the organization. He's on the last year of, arguably, the best contract in hockey (from a team/cap's perspective, anyway) and at the thought he will expect to be paid "fair market value" - he's suddenly replaceable?

It was 2010-11 when the Islanders top minute defensemen were:
Andrew MacDonald, James Wisniewski, Travis Hamonic, all over 21min....then:

Martinek 20+
Eaton 20+
Mottau 20+
Hillen 18+
Jurcina 18+
Wishart 16+
Katic, Gervais, Reese.

MacDonald (+9) and Hamonic (+4)were the only players playing 20+ games who weren't a minus defenseman.
MadDonald led all NYI defensemen in TOI, +/-, Points, 2nd to Hamonic in Goals.

I know he's not going to be Duncan Keith but seriously, some of the comments on this thread will lead one to believe he's another Bruno Gervais. Even at $4MM a season, which is what he'll command on the open market, it will be money well spent for most organizations.

Side note: James Wisniewski made $14mm over the past two seasons (pro-rated due to lockout) and will make another $19mm over the next four years, $5.5mm cap hit....the EXACT same cap/term as our very own John Tavares. #sobering

 

[seabass45]

this board's love for "the next prospect" is unbelievable at times.

what has ANYONE in this organization shown that make Andrew MacDonald even remotely expendable? It wasn't too long ago that Aaron Ness and Ty Wishart were knocking on the door.

MacDonald's been a warrior for this team and overachieved since he got into the organization. He's on the last year of, arguably, the best contract in hockey (from a team/cap's perspective, anyway) and at the thought he will expect to be paid "fair market value" - he's suddenly replaceable?

It was 2010-11 when the Islanders top minute defensemen were:
Andrew MacDonald, James Wisniewski, Travis Hamonic, all over 21min....then:

Martinek 20+
Eaton 20+
Mottau 20+
Hillen 18+
Jurcina 18+
Wishart 16+
Katic, Gervais, Reese.

MacDonald (+9) and Hamonic (+4)were the only players playing 20+ games who weren't a minus defenseman.
MadDonald led all NYI defensemen in TOI, +/-, Points, 2nd to Hamonic in Goals.

I know he's not going to be Duncan Keith but seriously, some of the comments on this thread will lead one to believe he's another Bruno Gervais. Even at $4MM a season, which is what he'll command on the open market, it will be money well spent for most organizations.

Side note: James Wisniewski made $14mm over the past two seasons (pro-rated due to lockout) and will make another $19mm over the next four years, $5.5mm cap hit....the EXACT same cap/term as our very own John Tavares. #sobering

And a reminder: they were plus defensemen on the 4th worst team in the league.

All of this negativity is due to how he and Hamonic played early this season but it's still ridiculous.

 

[bigd]

I'm not saying it's likely, I honestly don't expect him to stay healthy at this point, but if he does I fully expect him to outplay MacDonald. He's probably our 2nd best defensive prospect outside of Reinhart, IMO. The way he's played with Hamonic in the past(WJC and AHL) is the reason he'll be on that top pairing. They have complimented each other extremely well in the past.

I like MacDonald. He's a solid minutes eater who can slot in anywhere and be effective. That said I don't think anyone expects him to be on our top pairing that much longer. If I had to pick anyone from within our system to eventually take that spot, it would be de Haan. Reinhart is probably the only other option, but IMO his future is next to Pulock, most likely on the 2nd pairing. I think Reinhart will at some point play next to Visnovsky on that 2nd pairing for at least one season, and then Pulock will eventually replace Vis when his contract expires.

Perhaps you think it's extremely unlikely because of de Haan's injury history, and you're probably right, but if you don't think he'll have a shot at that level even if he's healthy the entire year, then I think you are underrating de Haan as a prospect. IMO, he has Ryan McDonagh written all over him.

Ryan McDonaugh You are extremely overating our prospects. I certainly don't see him on the first pairing anytime soon.

 

[seabass45]

What does everyone see A-Mac's role being, ideally? I agree that he'd be better off on the second pairing, but even so, as a solid #4, his market value is between $3-$4 million. He's definitely in the top 20 of potential UFA defensemen in a more crowded market next year, with the cap probably going up. He'll be 28 at the start of his next contract, and assuming he stays healthy this year, he should be able to get at least five years. There have been much worse contracts given out to UFA defensemen.

 

[blinkman360]

Ryan McDonaugh You are extremely overating our prospects. I certainly don't see him on the first pairing anytime soon.

I don't think so. If anything de Haan is extremely underrated around here. The fact he's been injured so often has made people think he's some mediocre prospect, even when healthy. It couldn't be further from the truth.

Like I said before, when healthy, he's easily our 2nd best prospect. I'm not going to be completely naïve and think that he's magically going to stay healthy for the rest of his career, or even long enough to establish an NHL career. I understand that's a long shot, but still the dismissal of CdH is mind boggling.

The kid is the real deal. It's just a matter of staying on the ice.

 

[CREW99AW]

What does everyone see A-Mac's role being, ideally? I agree that he'd be better off on the second pairing, but even so, as a solid #4, his market value is between $3-$4 million. He's definitely in the top 20 of potential UFA defensemen in a more crowded market next year, with the cap probably going up. He'll be 28 at the start of his next contract,ij and assuming he stays healthy this year, he should be able to get at least five years. There have been much worse contracts given out to UFA defensemen.

I cannot see Snow giving up the young talent, to land a top pairing defenseman.

I think we are going to see McDonald slide down the depth chart, only after more talented d-men come thru Bridgeport.

 

[Darth Milbury]

this board's love for "the next prospect" is unbelievable at times.

what has ANYONE in this organization shown that make Andrew MacDonald even remotely expendable? It wasn't too long ago that Aaron Ness and Ty Wishart were knocking on the door.

MacDonald's been a warrior for this team and overachieved since he got into the organization. He's on the last year of, arguably, the best contract in hockey (from a team/cap's perspective, anyway) and at the thought he will expect to be paid "fair market value" - he's suddenly replaceable?

It was 2010-11 when the Islanders top minute defensemen were:
Andrew MacDonald, James Wisniewski, Travis Hamonic, all over 21min....then:

Martinek 20+
Eaton 20+
Mottau 20+
Hillen 18+
Jurcina 18+
Wishart 16+
Katic, Gervais, Reese.

MacDonald (+9) and Hamonic (+4)were the only players playing 20+ games who weren't a minus defenseman.
MadDonald led all NYI defensemen in TOI, +/-, Points, 2nd to Hamonic in Goals.

I know he's not going to be Duncan Keith but seriously, some of the comments on this thread will lead one to believe he's another Bruno Gervais. Even at $4MM a season, which is what he'll command on the open market, it will be money well spent for most organizations.

Side note: James Wisniewski made $14mm over the past two seasons (pro-rated due to lockout) and will make another $19mm over the next four years, $5.5mm cap hit....the EXACT same cap/term as our very own John Tavares. #sobering

Bang on.

I wish I could have made this argument as convincingly as you have done.

 

[duster19]

An NHL team has 4 center slots. The Islanders have 3 because Tavares is a given on the first line. I'm guessing if they were to trade MacDonald for Statsny that he would not be a 4th line player so Cizikas is a moot point. Unless there is a second trade Nielsen is getting one of the other two center roles. That leaves one open center position for Statsny long term. The Islanders top two prospects are both centers, Strome and Nelson, Bailey although comfortable at the wing now is a capable center who could fill in short term, they have Regin signed then for short term call ups / prospects the Islanders have Anders Lee and Johan Sundstrom.

That gives the Islanders 9 players capable of playing NHL minutes at the center position this season and all but Regin have long term potential on the roster.

As far as MacDonald if you dont want to consider him the most consistent on the blue line thats fine but he does play well over 20 minutes a night against the other teams best players. Crosby, Ovechkin, Staal, Gaborik, Jagr, Nash, Giroux all these guys are in our division now. I would feel better with Strome, Nelson, Bailey, Lee or Regin eating up 2nd / 3rd line minutes than to replace MacDonald with deHaan, Hickey, Mayfield, Pokka or Ness.

We definitely have a different opinion of what depth is. I'm talking legit NHL centers. Nelson, strome, lee, sunstrom have played a combined 3 NHL games (all as wings), bailey was moved from c because he was under performing. So your left with regin, czikas, Nielsen and JT. To me, that is not very deep at a position I consider very important. I'd argue LW and RW are deeper at the NHL level.

Amac is a decent dman. I wouldn't make him into anything more. Hamonic and Vis are better defencemen. This team would have a much better def if he was playing bottom pair minutes and bringing in a legit dman to play with hamonic.

 

[seabass45]

We definitely have a different opinion of what depth is. I'm talking legit NHL centers. Nelson, strome, lee, sunstrom have played a combined 3 NHL games (all as wings), bailey was moved from c because he was under performing. So your left with regin, czikas, Nielsen and JT. To me, that is not very deep at a position I consider very important. I'd argue LW and RW are deeper at the NHL level.

Amac is a decent dman. I wouldn't make him into anything more. Hamonic and Vis are better defencemen. This team would have a much better def if he was playing bottom pair minutes and bringing in a legit dman to play with hamonic.

We could try Lubo and Hamonic together too. Problem is that Cappy is stubborn about switching things up.

 

[bigd]

We could try Lubo and Hamonic together too. Problem is that Cappy is stubborn about switching things up.

The problem is we have too many left D's and Lubo is the only left D that can play on the right side. So Lubo really needs to stay on the second pairing with either Strait or Hickey. I'm expecting it to be Strait and Lubo as the second pairing and a third pairing rotation depending on the opponent. The only other right D is Carkner and I don't see him in the top 4 at all unless we have numerous injuries. Not many left D can play both sides equally well at an NHL level.

 

[blinkman360]

The problem is we have too many left D's and Lubo is the only left D that can play on the right side. So Lubo really needs to stay on the second pairing with either Strait or Hickey. I'm expecting it to be Strait and Lubo as the second pairing and a third pairing rotation depending on the opponent. The only other right D is Carkner and I don't see him in the top 4 at all unless we have numerous injuries. Not many left D can play both sides equally well at an NHL level.

Exactly. I honestly expect Carkner to be the #7, so Hamonic will probably end up being the only RHD in our starting lineup. Vis needs to play the right side. Donovan will probably play the right side on the 3rd pairing.

We should be in decent shape a few years from now though. Mayfield, Pulock, and Pokka should all be in the NHL or NHL-ready by then. Not to mention the lower level guys like Russo, Graham, and Burroughs. Realistically, we'll probably only need one of those six to pan out. Two would be perfect though.

 

[bigd]

Exactly. I honestly expect Carkner to be the #7, so Hamonic will probably end up being the only RHD in our starting lineup. Vis needs to play the right side. Donovan will probably play the right side on the 3rd pairing.

We should be in decent shape a few years from now though. Mayfield, Pulock, and Pokka should all be in the NHL or NHL-ready by then. Not to mention the lower level guys like Russo, Graham, and Burroughs. Realistically, we'll probably only need one of those six to pan out. Two would be perfect though.

I expect Carkner to be playing on the 3rd pairing and Donovan and Hickey rotating as his partner at least to start the season. Has Donavan played the right side much in BP?

 

[PWJunior]

I expect Carkner to be playing on the 3rd pairing and Donovan and Hickey rotating as his partner at least to start the season. Has Donavan played the right side much in BP?

Agreed. Carkner wasn't healthy and missed a lot of time. What was an apparent groin strain turned out to be a more serious hip injury. At least it's a good thing it wasn't the knee that has plagued him for a while. He's reportedly fully recovered and ready to go. I like the size and snarl he brings to a relatively soft blue line. I think he's a viable 3rd pairing d-man for us.

 

[CREW99AW]

Dee Karl quoted Snow in a recent column, that looked at the isles defense. I'm trying to recall the exact quote. It was along the lines of quality defensmen don't grow on trees, you have to develop them.

I would guess that Snow values Andrew McDonald, a lot higher then fans in this thread. Kind of reminds me of the comments about Bailey, before he got his five yr extension.

 

[redbull]

Agreed. Carkner wasn't healthy and missed a lot of time. What was an apparent groin strain turned out to be a more serious hip injury. At least it's a good thing it wasn't the knee that has plagued him for a while. He's reportedly fully recovered and ready to go. I like the size and snarl he brings to a relatively soft blue line. I think he's a viable 3rd pairing d-man for us.

I thought the Islanders started playing dominant hockey in the final 4-5 weeks of the season largely because of Visnovsky-Streit-Hickey and their ability to start very quick transitions. Streit was good last year and he'll be missed, hopefully Donovan can replace some of what Streit brought offensively.

As fill-ins, Carkner, Martinek and Finley were pretty good for the Islanders and overall, they had the best defense they've had in a long time, and the fewest injuries.

The quick transition gave the Pens fits in the playoffs and the Islanders were tied or leading, after two periods, in 42 games last year, which is outstanding. What was very noticeable is how effective Bailey-Nielsen-Okposo were late in the season and with quick-first-pass defensemen out there, that line seemed to have the puck the whole shift and rarely gave up scoring chances.

Most of Tavares' goals last year were off the transition game as well, since that line was terrible 5on5 and rarely had sustained offensive zone pressure.

I'd lean towards quick-skating and smart-decision type defensemen rather than the big, slow, crease-clearing types that rarely help a speed-first transition game - but I can see a need for a guy like Carkner in the lineup (aside from the whole left-dman right-dman aspect that I believe is largely overblown)

Strait is one player that fits in nicely because he's very good defensively, very physical (though tends to take dumb penalties at times) yet he's a pretty good skater and smart puck mover as well. He's easy to play with and could fit with any partner.

I think the Isles have a lot of flexibility with the defense this season, even without any big additions (possibly more depth ala Martinek would be nice). I don't believe Finley was as bad as many think. Carkner is not as bad as I'd thought when he was acquired. I'm very optimistic about both Donovan and deHaan as well so hopefully the Isles can stay healthy because that defense is KEY to their overall game, their transition game. They aren't going to catch many teams off guard this season, won't see as many back-up goalies either.

Love summer. But can't wait for training camp.

 

[bigd]

I thought the Islanders started playing dominant hockey in the final 4-5 weeks of the season largely because of Visnovsky-Streit-Hickey and their ability to start very quick transitions. Streit was good last year and he'll be missed, hopefully Donovan can replace some of what Streit brought offensively.

As fill-ins, Carkner, Martinek and Finley were pretty good for the Islanders and overall, they had the best defense they've had in a long time, and the fewest injuries.

The quick transition gave the Pens fits in the playoffs and the Islanders were tied or leading, after two periods, in 42 games last year, which is outstanding. What was very noticeable is how effective Bailey-Nielsen-Okposo were late in the season and with quick-first-pass defensemen out there, that line seemed to have the puck the whole shift and rarely gave up scoring chances.

Most of Tavares' goals last year were off the transition game as well, since that line was terrible 5on5 and rarely had sustained offensive zone pressure.

I'd lean towards quick-skating and smart-decision type defensemen rather than the big, slow, crease-clearing types that rarely help a speed-first transition game - but I can see a need for a guy like Carkner in the lineup (aside from the whole left-dman right-dman aspect that I believe is largely overblown)

Strait is one player that fits in nicely because he's very good defensively, very physical (though tends to take dumb penalties at times) yet he's a pretty good skater and smart puck mover as well. He's easy to play with and could fit with any partner.

I think the Isles have a lot of flexibility with the defense this season, even without any big additions (possibly more depth ala Martinek would be nice). I don't believe Finley was as bad as many think. Carkner is not as bad as I'd thought when he was acquired. I'm very optimistic about both Donovan and deHaan as well so hopefully the Isles can stay healthy because that defense is KEY to their overall game, their transition game. They aren't going to catch many teams off guard this season, won't see as many back-up goalies either.

Love summer. But can't wait for training camp.

I don't know what happened to Strait with taking those penalties in the playoffs because if past history shows anything, he's not a highly penalized player. I wonder if that ankle bothering him made him a step slower. When a defenseman makes his pivot every second counts if you are defending a guy like Crosby. Anyway he should be all healed by now. We will see if he can keep it under control this season although you don't want him becoming less physical.

 

[Snapshotgoal]

Agreed. Carkner wasn't healthy and missed a lot of time. What was an apparent groin strain turned out to be a more serious hip injury. At least it's a good thing it wasn't the knee that has plagued him for a while. He's reportedly fully recovered and ready to go. I like the size and snarl he brings to a relatively soft blue line. I think he's a viable 3rd pairing d-man for us.

I think you nailed it! Carkner is an important piece to our team. He's strong and not afraid to pinch in. If you go over his tape last season, he rarely got beat. It may not have look pretty but he punished anyone in front of the net. I look forward to seeing a healthy Carkner next season.

 

[duster19]

I thought the Islanders started playing dominant hockey in the final 4-5 weeks of the season largely because of Visnovsky-Streit-Hickey and their ability to start very quick transitions. Streit was good last year and he'll be missed, hopefully Donovan can replace some of what Streit brought offensively.

As fill-ins, Carkner, Martinek and Finley were pretty good for the Islanders and overall, they had the best defense they've had in a long time, and the fewest injuries.

The quick transition gave the Pens fits in the playoffs and the Islanders were tied or leading, after two periods, in 42 games last year, which is outstanding. What was very noticeable is how effective Bailey-Nielsen-Okposo were late in the season and with quick-first-pass defensemen out there, that line seemed to have the puck the whole shift and rarely gave up scoring chances.

Most of Tavares' goals last year were off the transition game as well, since that line was terrible 5on5 and rarely had sustained offensive zone pressure.

I'd lean towards quick-skating and smart-decision type defensemen rather than the big, slow, crease-clearing types that rarely help a speed-first transition game - but I can see a need for a guy like Carkner in the lineup (aside from the whole left-dman right-dman aspect that I believe is largely overblown)

Strait is one player that fits in nicely because he's very good defensively, very physical (though tends to take dumb penalties at times) yet he's a pretty good skater and smart puck mover as well. He's easy to play with and could fit with any partner.

I think the Isles have a lot of flexibility with the defense this season, even without any big additions (possibly more depth ala Martinek would be nice). I don't believe Finley was as bad as many think. Carkner is not as bad as I'd thought when he was acquired. I'm very optimistic about both Donovan and deHaan as well so hopefully the Isles can stay healthy because that defense is KEY to their overall game, their transition game. They aren't going to catch many teams off guard this season, won't see as many back-up goalies either.

Love summer. But can't wait for training camp.

I agree with a lot of things you said. The islanders re definitely a transition hockey team that pushes their dman into the play. It is a huge reason the score a lot of goals.

However, a couple things strike me.
1. A team that takes the lead 42 times into the 3rd period and only wins a total of 24 games is very concerning. Maybe we are young and need to learn to win or maybe we don't have a back end that can close out games.

2. For a budget hockey team, is it really a good idea to try and play an offensive, wide open game. Generally speaking, players who score points cost money. So either we need to pay players or prepare for a revolving door.

 

[Quicklime]

I agree with a lot of things you said. The islanders re definitely a transition hockey team that pushes their dman into the play. It is a huge reason the score a lot of goals.

However, a couple things strike me.
1. A team that takes the lead 42 times into the 3rd period and only wins a total of 24 games is very concerning. Maybe we are young and need to learn to win or maybe we don't have a back end that can close out games.

2. For a budget hockey team, is it really a good idea to try and play an offensive, wide open game. Generally speaking, players who score points cost money. So either we need to pay players or prepare for a revolving door.

To the first, agreed, though I think with camaraderie spiking as the team gels with these younger quality players and if last year's playoffs have the correct effect, they'll play harder from the start and the GAA will go down some as long as the goaltending can hold up. Many of these guys are below 25, had leadership on their developmental teams and are improving. (I'm thinking of Cizikas most of all here, rated as an A-level prospect on Hockey's Future.)

To the second, I think the revolving door is part of "The Plan" - while I'd rather ice the best team possible instead of tossing kids parachutes and pushing them out of the plane, what if a guy like Ryan Pulock plays himself onto the roster ahead of schedule? At this juncture, it should place more pressure on guys like deHaan, Hickey or Strait rather than someone more proven like McDonald.

There's something new in this organization that hasn't been here in decades - competition to make the roster full-time. I've used the "Agoge" reference before - this isn't a free agency piecemeal roster with a short half-life (Peca/Yashin days) - that's how I believe training camp will play out, as there are finally more players to compete for spots than there are spots available. There's greater overall incentive to be a part of what was started last year, as things keep trending upward. The core of the team is now locked up for a long enough time to where there are better options to survive a bit of a revolving door on defense. (Though we need more forward prospects - Strome, Nelson and Lee are all there is 'chambered.')

This isn't to say it won't be a blow if A-Mac left, though - even as I see 5 options push for replacing him - Reinhart, Pulock, Pedan, Mayfield, Pelech. I'm guessing A-Mac gets something in the neighborhood of a $3M/3 year deal, making things more dangerous for players like Strait and Hickey first.

 

[bigd]

To the first, agreed, though I think with camaraderie spiking as the team gels with these younger quality players and if last year's playoffs have the correct effect, they'll play harder from the start and the GAA will go down some as long as the goaltending can hold up. Many of these guys are below 25, had leadership on their developmental teams and are improving. (I'm thinking of Cizikas most of all here, rated as an A-level prospect on Hockey's Future.)

To the second, I think the revolving door is part of "The Plan" - while I'd rather ice the best team possible instead of tossing kids parachutes and pushing them out of the plane, what if a guy like Ryan Pulock plays himself onto the roster ahead of schedule? At this juncture, it should place more pressure on guys like deHaan, Hickey or Strait rather than someone more proven like McDonald.

There's something new in this organization that hasn't been here in decades - competition to make the roster full-time. I've used the "Agoge" reference before - this isn't a free agency piecemeal roster with a short half-life (Peca/Yashin days) - that's how I believe training camp will play out, as there are finally more players to compete for spots than there are spots available. There's greater overall incentive to be a part of what was started last year, as things keep trending upward. The core of the team is now locked up for a long enough time to where there are better options to survive a bit of a revolving door on defense. (Though we need more forward prospects - Strome, Nelson and Lee are all there is 'chambered.')

This isn't to say it won't be a blow if A-Mac left, though - even as I see 5 options push for replacing him - Reinhart, Pulock, Pedan, Mayfield, Pelech. I'm guessing A-Mac gets something in the neighborhood of a $3M/3 year deal, making things more dangerous for players like Strait and Hickey first.

You never know how Hickey and Strait will fare after a full 82 game season in the NHL. Maybe they play so well that they make it more dangerous for Amac. We'll have to wait and see.