Unsustainable shooting %'s - Who can sustain it?

[benfranklin]

Last season we saw only 6 players shot 20% or higher (50GP min):

Player	GP	G	S	S%
Sam Reinhart	82	57	233	24.5
Dakota Joshua	63	18	84	21.4
Simon Holmstrom	75	15	72	20.8
Anthony Mantha	74	23	113	20.4
Brayden Point	81	46	227	20.3
Nils Hoglander	80	24	120	20

So far this season (10GP+, 15+ shots), a whopping 56 players:

Player	GP	G	S	S%
Brayden Point	11	7	19	36.8
Adam Gaudette	10	6	17	35.3
Matt Duchene	11	7	20	35
Ryan Donato	10	6	19	31.6
Jonathan Huberdeau	11	5	16	31.3
Ivan Barbashev	12	7	23	30.4
Jordan Eberle	12	6	20	30
Cole Caufield	12	10	34	29.4
Leon Draisaitl	11	8	29	27.6
Alex Laferriere	12	8	29	27.6
Paul Cotter	14	6	22	27.3
Tim Stützle	11	6	22	27.3
Eeli Tolvanen	12	4	15	26.7
Joel Kiviranta	12	4	15	26.7
Sam Reinhart	13	10	38	26.3
Nic Dowd	10	4	16	25
Alexis Lafrenière	10	5	20	25
Nikolaj Ehlers	11	7	29	24.1
Tom Wilson	10	6	25	24
Stefan Noesen	14	5	21	23.8
Nick Paul	11	4	17	23.5
Dylan Larkin	11	7	30	23.3
Chris Kreider	10	6	26	23.1
Alex DeBrincat	11	5	22	22.7
Drake Batherson	11	5	22	22.7
Kirill Kaprizov	10	7	31	22.6
Connor McMichael	10	7	31	22.6
Craig Smith	10	4	18	22.2
Brandon Hagel	11	6	27	22.2
Nico Hischier	14	10	45	22.2
Gabriel Vilardi	11	4	18	22.2
Aliaksei Protas	10	4	18	22.2
Claude Giroux	11	5	23	21.7
Mats Zuccarello	10	5	23	21.7
Brock Boeser	10	5	23	21.7
Troy Terry	10	5	23	21.7
Ross Colton	10	8	37	21.6
Brett Howden	12	6	28	21.4
Fabian Zetterlund	13	6	28	21.4
Tage Thompson	12	7	33	21.2
Tomas Hertl	12	4	19	21.1
Rasmus Andersson	11	4	19	21.1
Dylan Strome	10	4	19	21.1
Josh Norris	11	4	19	21.1
Leo Carlsson	10	4	19	21.1
Nikita Kucherov	11	9	43	20.9
Mark Stone	12	5	24	20.8
Matthew Knies	12	6	29	20.7
Artemi Panarin	10	7	34	20.6
William Nylander	12	8	39	20.5
Kyle Connor	11	9	44	20.5
Kevin Hayes	13	3	15	20
Joel Edmundson	10	3	15	20
Mark Scheifele	11	6	30	20
Pavel Buchnevich	12	4	20	20
Pavel Dorofeyev	12	7	35	20

Click to read more...

 

[NyQuil]

Josh Norris is one of those guys who shoots at 14% in an off season and 17-20% in a good season.

There are a few Sens on the list but he’s the guy that I’d be most confident in sustaining his shooting percentage.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Draisaitl, Norris, Scheifele, Reinhart, and Kaprizov are the ones I'm most confident in sustaining.

 

[Chainshot]

I think it's just who Reinhart is, that he puts himself into great position and has excellent accuracy so staying above 20% seems like something he will still do.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Perfect case of sample size.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No one will sustain much above 20. I didn’t look closely at the list, but like a Matthews or Pastrnak might be able to sustain somewhere in the 20’s. If it’s some third line guy, prepare for a big cold streak.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Kaprizov is inflated by 2 empty-netters I think.

 

[benfranklin]

Kaprizov is inflated by 2 empty-netters I think.

Good call. Im going to look into those.

 

[Dust]

Point and Draisaitl are the 2 highest active career % shooters at 18.5 and 18.3, so I'd bet heavily on those 2 to be near the top. Nobody will be in the 30% range, but they could be mid or low 20's by the end of the season.

 

[dgibb10]

The guys on my team can 100% sustain it because *insert bullshit reason here*. They just have that dog in them

 

[NyQuil]

The guys on my team can 100% sustain it because *insert bullshit reason here*. They just have that dog in them

That’s pretty confident of you.

 

[dgibb10]

That’s pretty confident of you.

Sources say they changed their diet in the offseason and are in the best shape of their lives

 

[Clint Eastwood]

I think it's just who Reinhart is, that he puts himself into great position and has excellent accuracy so staying above 20% seems like something he will still do.

Yeah 82 games last year, a full playoff run with 10 total goals, and a hot start this season? I'm not saying he'll score 57 again, but I think he's proven to be an elite forward in this league.

 

[NyQuil]

Sources say they changed their diet in the offseason and are in the best shape of their lives

Giddy up!

 

[benfranklin]

Good call. Im going to look into those.

Adjusted for Empty net goals

23-24:

Player	GP	G	S	S%	ENG	Adjusted
Sam Reinhart	82	57	233	24.5	4	23.14%
Dakota Joshua	63	18	84	21.4	3	18.52%
Simon Holmstrom	75	15	72	20.8	0	20.83%
Anthony Mantha	74	23	113	20.4	0	20.35%
Brayden Point	81	46	227	20.3	1	19.91%
Nils Hoglander	80	24	120	20	0	20.00%

24-25:

Player	GP	G	S	S%	ENG	Adjusted
Brayden Point	11	7	19	36.8	0	36.84%
Adam Gaudette	10	6	17	35.3	0	35.29%
Matt Duchene	11	7	20	35	1	31.58%
Ryan Donato	10	6	19	31.6	1	27.78%
Jonathan Huberdeau	11	5	16	31.3	0	31.25%
Ivan Barbashev	12	7	23	30.4	0	30.43%
Jordan Eberle	12	6	20	30	0	30.00%
Cole Caufield	12	10	34	29.4	0	29.41%
Leon Draisaitl	11	8	29	27.6	0	27.59%
Alex Laferriere	12	8	29	27.6	0	27.59%
Paul Cotter	14	6	22	27.3	1	23.81%
Tim Stützle	11	6	22	27.3	2	20.00%
Eeli Tolvanen	12	4	15	26.7	0	26.67%
Joel Kiviranta	12	4	15	26.7	0	26.67%
Sam Reinhart	13	10	38	26.3	1	24.32%
Nic Dowd	10	4	16	25	1	20.00%
Alexis Lafrenière	10	5	20	25	0	25.00%
Nikolaj Ehlers	11	7	29	24.1	0	24.14%
Tom Wilson	10	6	25	24	0	24.00%
Stefan Noesen	14	5	21	23.8	0	23.81%
Nick Paul	11	4	17	23.5	0	23.53%
Dylan Larkin	11	7	30	23.3	1	20.69%
Chris Kreider	10	6	26	23.1	1	20.00%
Alex DeBrincat	11	5	22	22.7	0	22.73%
Drake Batherson	11	5	22	22.7	0	22.73%
Kirill Kaprizov	10	7	31	22.6	3	14.29%
Connor McMichael	10	7	31	22.6	0	22.58%
Craig Smith	10	4	18	22.2	0	22.22%
Brandon Hagel	11	6	27	22.2	1	19.23%
Nico Hischier	14	10	45	22.2	0	22.22%
Gabriel Vilardi	11	4	18	22.2	0	22.22%
Aliaksei Protas	10	4	18	22.2	0	22.22%
Claude Giroux	11	5	23	21.7	0	21.74%
Mats Zuccarello	10	5	23	21.7	0	21.74%
Brock Boeser	10	5	23	21.7	0	21.74%
Troy Terry	10	5	23	21.7	0	21.74%
Ross Colton	10	8	37	21.6	0	21.62%
Brett Howden	12	6	28	21.4	1	18.52%
Fabian Zetterlund	13	6	28	21.4	0	21.43%
Tage Thompson	12	7	33	21.2	0	21.21%
Tomas Hertl	12	4	19	21.1	0	21.05%
Rasmus Andersson	11	4	19	21.1	0	21.05%
Dylan Strome	10	4	19	21.1	0	21.05%
Josh Norris	11	4	19	21.1	0	21.05%
Leo Carlsson	10	4	19	21.1	0	21.05%
Nikita Kucherov	11	9	43	20.9	2	17.07%
Mark Stone	12	5	24	20.8	0	20.83%
Matthew Knies	12	6	29	20.7	0	20.69%
Artemi Panarin	10	7	34	20.6	1	18.18%
William Nylander	12	8	39	20.5	1	18.42%
Kyle Connor	11	9	44	20.5	0	20.45%
Kevin Hayes	13	3	15	20	0	20.00%
Joel Edmundson	10	3	15	20	0	20.00%
Mark Scheifele	11	6	30	20	0	20.00%
Pavel Buchnevich	12	4	20	20	1	15.79%
Pavel Dorofeyev	12	7	35	20	0	20.00%

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Point will because he has Kucherov attached to his hip for 60 minutes every game.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

Reinhart has a lot of shots so far, Point tends to shoot from high danger areas, and, given that both shot a high percentage last year, I'd say it's possible for both.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Caufield as the goalies have given up a lot of weak ones.

He's got a wicked shot, but some of them he doesn't even get everything behind it and finds away, so I imagine those will die down.


The PP% some teams have will go down, too and likely be the same for some of the players listed here.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Drai cause German engineering.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

Reinhart has a lot of shots so far, Point tends to shoot from high danger areas, and, given that both shot a high percentage last year, I'd say it's possible for both.

My thoughts as well.

Point did it last season, is off to an insane start this season, and has shot over 20% three times in his career already.

Reinhart's shot a total of 19.2% over the last five seasons (including his last season in Buffalo), so he's got a pretty consistent record at this point of shooting at a clip of close to 20%.

 

[Bank Shot]

The Vancouver Canucks guys will repeat because Tocchet has that super secret system for scoring on a high percentage of shots.

 

[Random schmoe]

I don't see any of the Caps players - Strome, Protas, McMichael, Wilson, Dowd - maintaining the pace.

Dowd probably has the best chance. He was at 19.7% last season and 21% in 2022-23. Being used mostly defensively though, he doesn't take many shots, only 61 and 62 the previous two seasons.

McMichael probably has the best shot, most pure goal scoring ability, of all of those players, but even when he was near goal per game in juniors his shooting percentage was around 16.6%.

 

[GAGLine]

Kreider finished with a 20.2 shooting percentage in 2021-22 and 19.6% in 2020-21. Most of his shots come from within 5 feet of the net, many on deflections, which would naturally lead to a higher shooting percentage. I can see him finishing the year at 20+%.

Panarin has turned into a volume shooter since last year (303 shots last year vs previous career high of 228), so his shooting percentage is unlikely to remain that high. He scored 49 goals last year and had a career high shooting percentage of 16.2%.

Laf is shooting less than he did last year (2.65 shots per game last year vs 2 this year) but scoring at a higher per game rate (28 goals last year vs a 37-goal pace this year), inflating his shooting percentage. His shot totals are down due to only having 6 shots over the last 5 games. I assume he'll pick it up again, but I don't expect it will significantly affect his scoring rate, which means his shooting percentage is likely to go down.

 

[DFC]

Point will end up around 20%. That play from Kucherov to Point in the slot is money. If Kucherov makes the pass, Point scores, and that will float his S% the same way it always does.

 

[JPT]

I think Duchene actually goes up to 40%