Tyler Dellow on hitting: 11-12 NYR had most road hits

[1994sec311]

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5617

Even teams that hit a lot tend to do better when they get out-hit than when they hit. The Rangers led the league in road hits last year (ie. they were likely the most physical team in the NHL) and did better home and away when being out-hit. Ditto the Penguins, who were second in road hits. The Blues and Kings (third and fourth) are inconclusive, as they each did better in one locale when outhitting and another when being outhit. The only other top ten teams in road hits (which I’m using as a sort of proxy for physicality) who did better when being outhit in one of home or away were the Leafs and Flames. Nobody did better when outhitting both home and away.

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[GrizMint]

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5617

Even teams that hit a lot tend to do better when they get out-hit than when they hit. The Rangers led the league in road hits last year (ie. they were likely the most physical team in the NHL) and did better home and away when being out-hit. Ditto the Penguins, who were second in road hits. The Blues and Kings (third and fourth) are inconclusive, as they each did better in one locale when outhitting and another when being outhit. The only other top ten teams in road hits (which I’m using as a sort of proxy for physicality) who did better when being outhit in one of home or away were the Leafs and Flames. Nobody did better when outhitting both home and away.

Interesting. Hits are the most arbitrary stat in the game. Every home team scorer, scores differently. So comparing one team to another isn't a solid indicator, because one team might award 25% more hits to both the home and away team.

However, in this case, it is nice to see the rangers over a large sample, with different scoring officials lead the league. How are we doing this year on the road? Any direct correlation between hits on the road and Gf/GA on the road?

 

[1994sec311]

Interesting. Hits are the most arbitrary stat in the game. Every home team scorer, scores differently. So comparing one team to another isn't a solid indicator, because one team might award 25% more hits to both the home and away team.

However, in this case, it is nice to see the rangers over a large sample, with different scoring officials lead the league. How are we doing this year on the road? Any direct correlation between hits on the road and Gf/GA on the road?

Thanks. His stuff is generally very good. His point about hitting generally is that hitting for its own sake has a correlation with losing. He thinks the stats show you should hit to separate a man from the puck , but not just for its own sake, because there are cost opportunities with hitting.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Dellow is my favorite hockey writer bar none. I've actually developed a minor interest in the Oilers as a result of reading all his posts.

This was a really good article. Interesting that the Rangers kind of bucked the trend and were the exception to the idea that hitting has no correlation with winning.. I think some of that is probably MSG scorer bias which is notorious among all the advanced stats writers.

 

[GrizMint]

Thanks. His stuff is generally very good. His point about hitting generally is that hitting for its own sake has a correlation with losing. He thinks the stats show you should hit to separate a man from the puck , but not just for its own sake, because there are cost opportunities with hitting.

After taking a quick look at the article, I think the next step is to really look at hits per zone. While separating the puck is certainly the best part of an average hit, it isn't the only perk, especially in the offensive zone.

Almost have to make the distinction, Offensive Hits, Netural Zone hits, Defensive Zone hits.

While hits in the defensive zone can be game changers, (like Staals huge hit to Matt Stajan)... high hit totals reflect having poor puck possession time, or being pinned down.

When you think the offensive zone, you have to be happy with hits because you are trying to put pressure on, force bad plays and keep them on their heels even if you don't seperate the puck because you have plenty of time to recover.

Neutral Zone depends entirely on the teams system. (Rangers don't get hit too often because they dump 99%, but also don't hit often because they collapse) Wouldn't mind stepping up more often against the Penguins and faster teams to try and slow them down.

With the way the team has been playing this year, even before the article, I would have thought if the Rangers out hit the other team 30 to 15, it was because they were running around without the puck. I am just shocked with last year because I felt we had so many good games we won, where we smoked the other team in the hit department. (At least on the stat sheet)

 

[1994sec311]

Dellow is my favorite hockey writer bar none. I've actually developed a minor interest in the Oilers as a result of reading all his posts.

This was a really good article. Interesting that the Rangers kind of bucked the trend and were the exception to the idea that hitting has no correlation with winning.. I think some of that is probably MSG scorer bias which is notorious among all the advanced stats writers.

Agreed, he's great. Regrets if I missed it, but what part of the analysis are the NYR the exception to? His point is that you do better when you get out-hit than you do when out-hitting the other team. That was true with respect to the NYR as well, both in home and road games.

 

[1994sec311]

....
While hits in the defensive zone can be game changers, (like Staals huge hit to Matt Stajan)... high hit totals reflect having poor puck possession time, or being pinned down. ...

Yeah, that's a good point I hadn't thought of . I wonder if Dellow has addressed that the out-hitting/losing relationship could be correlation and not cauusation. He's good enough that I'm sure he has, but I must have skipped over it/not seen it.