Proposal: Trouba Mega Thread Part VI

[nyr__1994]

I think in terms of value, that's an excellent offer. The Jets really need to improve on defence though, and adding a forward is not really the best case scenario for them.

And I understand where the not being excited about adding another forward is coming from, but who else is going to offer a rookie LD that is pushing for top 4 minutes and a top 6 forward that can can play any position and both PP and PK? And they are both cost controlled?

Remember, both of these players are currently playing top minutes in the NHL already with room to grow.

If the Jets are hung up on only taking back d-men, the offer gets worse and you are looking at Skjei and one of Holden or Klein coming over as well.

Once you start adding more and more pieces it becomes a video game trade and you wind up with something like Miller Skjei and Klein for Trouba and Dano.

 

[haveandare]

The team doesn't want 80 cents. They want a dollar and they have every right to wait until they get that dollar.

Maybe when Trouba is worth 80 cents they'll change their minds and except that 80 cents.

That time isn't here though.

So any team offering their 80 cents can keep it. The Jets will keep their dollar for now.

Trouba's value is dropped by his sitting out, being unsigned, and having a Dec 1 date attached to the whole thing. If his value as a player in normal circumstances is a dollar, he's worth ~80 cents now because of the situation.

Say a team has the exact LH equivalent of Trouba, but the player is signed and playing. Why would they trade that player for Trouba? It wouldn't make any sense to do that.

The situation lowers his value period and sitting out a year would lower it much, much more.

 

[cneely]

And I understand where the not being excited about adding another forward is coming from, but who else is going to offer a rookie LD that is pushing for top 4 minutes and a top 6 forward that can can play any position and both PP and PK? And they are both cost controlled?

Remember, both of these players are currently playing top minutes in the NHL already with room to grow.

If the Jets are hung up on only taking back d-men, the offer gets worse and you are looking at Skjei and one of Holden or Klein coming over as well.

Once you start adding more and more pieces it becomes a video game trade and you wind up with something like Miller Skjei and Klein for Trouba and Dano.

I understand that both players have significant value. For the Jets, I think they would much rather upgrade to a better defenceman (not that Skjei is bad certainly), and drop the forward.

I'm not really sure what could be out there to fit the bill....

 

[cneely]

Trouba's value is dropped by his sitting out, being unsigned, and having a Dec 1 date attached to the whole thing. If his value as a player in normal circumstances is a dollar, he's worth ~80 cents now because of the situation.

Say a team has the exact LH equivalent of Trouba, but the player is signed and playing. Why would they trade that player for Trouba? It wouldn't make any sense to do that.

The situation lowers his value period and sitting out a year would lower it much, much more.

This keeps getting stated again and again like its an unarguable fact. Trouba is what he is, a top 3 22 year old defenceman. Why would his value drop because he isn't playing currently.

The only recent example we have of a player who sat out an entire year in a contract dispute was Michael Peca, and he returned 2 recent top 10 picks who had decent starts to their career. Connolly had 34 then 41 points before he was 20, and Pyatt was coming off a decent rookie year. Sitting out didn't seem to hurt Peca's value.

 

[aj8000]

Trouba's value is dropped by his sitting out, being unsigned, and having a Dec 1 date attached to the whole thing. If his value as a player in normal circumstances is a dollar, he's worth ~80 cents now because of the situation.

Say a team has the exact LH equivalent of Trouba, but the player is signed and playing. Why would they trade that player for Trouba? It wouldn't make any sense to do that.

The situation lowers his value period and sitting out a year would lower it much, much more.

Supply and demand, he is worth 1.20 and if we let him sit out the year, he will be worth 1.40. Kind of like whiskey gets more expensive the longer it sits.

 

[haveandare]

I understand that both players have significant value. For the Jets, I think they would much rather upgrade to a better defenceman (not that Skjei is bad certainly), and drop the forward.

I'm not really sure what could be out there to fit the bill....

Despite "not needing" wingers, the Jets have maybe 3 quality wingers from what I can see in Wheeler, Laine and Ehlers. I think it's pretty safe to say that Miller would be an upgrade on every other winger they have. Look what the Rangers are doing with forward depth even matched with a d corps that is mostly garbage.

I know WPG has a bunch of wingers at lower levels of development that they think are going to come up and take over and maybe they will but Miller is an upgrade on most of their current wingers by far. If someone else comes up in a year or two and they make the right amount of noise, you can move them or move Miller to get help in other places.

 

[MikeRahl]

Trouba's value is dropped by his sitting out, being unsigned, and having a Dec 1 date attached to the whole thing. If his value as a player in normal circumstances is a dollar, he's worth ~80 cents now because of the situation.

Say a team has the exact LH equivalent of Trouba, but the player is signed and playing. Why would they trade that player for Trouba? It wouldn't make any sense to do that.

The situation lowers his value period and sitting out a year would lower it much, much more.

You would make the trade because you are trying to field the best team possible. It doesn't matter what Trouba's situation is on the Jets, when he gets to your team he is signed.

If your need is a RHD, and you feel Trouba would the perfect fit, and you have a player that the Jets would accept 1-1 for Trouba... you wouldn't make that deal? Out of spite or just because?

With that attitude in exchanging goods and services I think you actually are a closet Winnipegger.

 

[haveandare]

This keeps getting stated again and again like its an unarguable fact. Trouba is what he is, a top 3 22 year old defenceman. Why would his value drop because he isn't playing currently.

The only recent example we have of a player who sat out an entire year in a contract dispute was Michael Peca, and he returned 2 recent top 10 picks who had decent starts to their career. Connolly had 34 then 41 points before he was 20, and Pyatt was coming off a decent rookie year. Sitting out didn't seem to hurt Peca's value.

His value is lower because he's a problem for WPG and everyone knows it. Plus any team that trades for him is going to have to sign him and he's going to have to essentially start high level training and playing in November rather than over the summer. Someone who can step in today with a contract already done and a normal training camp and start to the season under their belt is worth more than the same exact player who still needs to be signed and hasn't been playing or practicing with NHLers.

Peca was traded fifteen years ago . Whatever happened then shouldn't be the point as much as the fact that have to reach back a decade and half to find an example of a player sitting out a whole year. There's a reason for that - sitting valuable players for a whole year is a horrible idea.

 

[cneely]

Despite "not needing" wingers, the Jets have maybe 3 quality wingers from what I can see in Wheeler, Laine and Ehlers. I think it's pretty safe to say that Miller would be an upgrade on every other winger they have. Look what the Rangers are doing with forward depth even matched with a d corps that is mostly garbage.

I know WPG has a bunch of wingers at lower levels of development that they think are going to come up and take over and maybe they will but Miller is an upgrade on most of their current wingers by far. If someone else comes up in a year or two and they make the right amount of noise, you can move them or move Miller to get help in other places.

We've been having this discussion already for 2 days in this thread.

Yes, Miller would be an upgrade over some of their forwards. There is no doubt, but the Jets greater need is on defence. Their forward depth is fantastically better than their defensive depth which is one injury away from having Mark Stuart play a top 4 role.

 

[wintersej]

Keep building that strawman.

To repeat, the Jets ask per Elliotte Friedman is an "elite, young player with term or team control". 99.999% of the supposed offers of fair value here fail to meet the team's ask.

The ask is high because it replaces the loss; that represents a fair return, and especially versus a bunch of offers that are reliant upon either futures the Jets do not need or players they do not need. Hope that helps.

It is interesting that Jets fans only accept certain inputs (Friedman) but not others (Kyp) when saying what WPG is asking for and willing to accept.

 

[haveandare]

Supply and demand, he is worth 1.20 and if we let him sit out the year, he will be worth 1.40. Kind of like whiskey gets more expensive the longer it sits.

Except unlike whiskey he's a human being who is going to be relied on to play a very difficult game at the highest level imaginable, and his skills (which determine his value) will diminish over time.

If you think a young player missing an entire year of NHL hockey makes him more valuable, you're living in an absolute fantasy.

 

[lomiller1]

QoC is a garbage stat and I know you know that.

I only brought it up to dismiss the claim that Perreault faced weaker competition.

BTW it’s not meaningless, it’s just over large samples the difference is so small between most NHL players that it generally doesn’t impact possession numbers or scoring rates very much.

 

[haveandare]

We've been having this discussion already for 2 days in this thread.

Yes, Miller would be an upgrade over some of their forwards. There is no doubt, but the Jets greater need is on defence. Their forward depth is fantastically better than their defensive depth which is one injury away from having Mark Stuart play a top 4 role.

So, take Miller as an upgrade for now and trade someone who you'd think would have filled the spot he's taken down the road for a better D. Use Skjei and that new D and now you have two players between injury and Mark Stuart as well as an immediate forward upgrade.

 

[cneely]

His value is lower because he's a problem for WPG and everyone knows it. Plus any team that trades for him is going to have to sign him and he's going to have to essentially start high level training and playing in November rather than over the summer. Someone who can step in today with a contract already done and a normal training camp and start to the season under their belt is worth more than the same exact player who still needs to be signed and hasn't been playing or practicing with NHLers.

because he's a problem? So the Jets should trade him for 80 cents on the dollar because he's a problem? Chevy doesn't agree, and the Jets are thankful for that.

He's 22. Getting in shape shouldn't be a problem.

Peca was traded fifteen years ago . Whatever happened then shouldn't be the point as much as the fact that have to reach back a decade and half to find an example of a player sitting out a whole year. There's a reason for that - sitting valuable players for a whole year is a horrible idea.

Fair enough. It doesn't happen often, and I don't expect it to happen in this case either. I do expect, however, that Chevy will get fair value.

 

[cneely]

It is interesting that Jets fans only accept certain inputs (Friedman) but not others (Kyp) when saying what WPG is asking for and willing to accept.

What is Kypreos saying?

 

[haveandare]

You would make the trade because you are trying to field the best team possible. It doesn't matter what Trouba's situation is on the Jets, when he gets to your team he is signed.

If your need is a RHD, and you feel Trouba would the perfect fit, and you have a player that the Jets would accept 1-1 for Trouba... you wouldn't make that deal? Out of spite or just because?

With that attitude in exchanging goods and services I think you actually are a closet Winnipegger.

You're always trying to field the best team possible, not just in the scope of this one trade, and assets spent needlessly on one deal are assets that can't be spent again.

If your need is RHD and you have a player with the exact same value as Trouba if he were under normal circumstances you wouldn't make that deal because your player is signed and playing and has no timeline attached to their ability to play for the entire year like Trouba does. Your player has full value and Trouba does not. Therefore, you'd ask for something more that you could use later to keep building your team.

 

[cneely]

Except unlike whiskey he's a human being who is going to be relied on to play a very difficult game at the highest level imaginable, and his skills (which determine his value) will diminish over time.

If you think a young player missing an entire year of NHL hockey makes him more valuable, you're living in an absolute fantasy.

He's 22. His skills are not diminishing. FWIW, going back to the Peca example, he sat out a year, and came back with the best offensive year of his career.

 

[cneely]

So, take Miller as an upgrade for now and trade someone who you'd think would have filled the spot he's taken down the road for a better D. Use Skjei and that new D and now you have two players between injury and Mark Stuart as well as an immediate forward upgrade.

So make the trade I want, and then just flip the pieces you don't need later.

 

[Montecristo]

You would make the trade because you are trying to field the best team possible. It doesn't matter what Trouba's situation is on the Jets, when he gets to your team he is signed.

If your need is a RHD, and you feel Trouba would the perfect fit, and you have a player that the Jets would accept 1-1 for Trouba... you wouldn't make that deal? Out of spite or just because?

With that attitude in exchanging goods and services I think you actually are a closet Winnipegger.

What team out there has 3 top end young cost controlled LHD and 0 young top end RHD currently in the NHL? What team trades away a valuable piece of their current team for an unsigned player who might cost more than their current player and has a headache of an agent just for the hopes he'll bring as much to their team as the guy they traded. Subban was a headache for Montreal for whatever reason. They got fair return for him in shea Weber but they gave up valuable future prime years of subban for the remaining few left in shea Weber. So it's like if we say Jacob trouba will be like a jay bouewmeester (prime bouwmeester) one day. But right now he's a headache so you trade him for giordano. In all liklihood giordano helps your team more the next 2 years and is more valuable than trouba is the next 2 years. That doesn't mean it's a fair trade. Winnipeg gets fleeced in that deal. Right? Because in 3 years giordano will stink and trouba still has 7 prime years left. So when was the last time a talented unsigned malcontent was traded away and the team got a fair 1-1 even value swap? No one will trade away troubas exact LHD signed counterpart for unsigned trouba. Prospects, young d with less potential, young forwards, picks. That's likely what Winnipeg will have to choose from if they decide they will trade him.

I'll be stunned if Zach werenski or Noah hanifin get moved for trouba

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Supply and demand, he is worth 1.20 and if we let him sit out the year, he will be worth 1.40. Kind of like whiskey gets more expensive the longer it sits.

This is probably the single worst analogy I've ever seen used on these boards.


The longer he sits out, the less value he gets. The complete opposite of what you seem to think.

 

[cneely]

You're always trying to field the best team possible, not just in the scope of this one trade, and assets spent needlessly on one deal are assets that can't be spent again.

Exactly. Just like Trouba is an asset for the Jets and they don't want to spend needlessly.

If your need is RHD and you have a player with the exact same value as Trouba if he were under normal circumstances you wouldn't make that deal because your player is signed and playing and has no timeline attached to their ability to play for the entire year like Trouba does. Your player has full value and Trouba does not. Therefore, you'd ask for something more that you could use later to keep building your team.

Trouba is a free agent, and has the right to speak to any team he wants. I would expect that if / when he gets dealt, he will already have a deal in place with his new team.

 

[cneely]

What team out there has 3 top end young cost controlled LHD and 0 young top end RHD currently in the NHL? What team trades away a valuable piece of their current team for an unsigned player who might cost more than their current player and has a headache of an agent just for the hopes he'll bring as much to their team as the guy they traded. Subban was a headache for Montreal for whatever reason. They got fair return for him in shea Weber but they gave up valuable future prime years of subban for the remaining few left in shea Weber. So it's like if we say Jacob trouba will be like a jay bouewmeester (prime bouwmeester) one day. But right now he's a headache so you trade him for giordano. In all liklihood giordano helps your team more the next 2 years and is more valuable than trouba is the next 2 years. That doesn't mean it's a fair trade. Winnipeg gets fleeced in that deal. Right? Because in 3 years giordano will stink and trouba still has 7 prime years left. So when was the last time a talented unsigned malcontent was traded away and the team got a fair 1-1 even value swap? No one will trade away troubas exact LHD signed counterpart for unsigned trouba. Prospects, young d with less potential, young forwards, picks. That's likely what Winnipeg will have to choose from if they decide they will trade him.

I'll be stunned if Zach werenski or Noah hanifin get moved for trouba

Johansen for Jones kinda fits that bill.

 

[Hunter368]

It is interesting that Jets fans only accept certain inputs (Friedman) but not others (Kyp) when saying what WPG is asking for and willing to accept.

Are you comparing Friedman to Kyp?

Friedman is among the best in the biz, Kyp......is not.

 

[Montecristo]

I only brought it up to dismiss the claim that Perreault faced weaker competition.

BTW it’s not meaningless, it’s just over large samples the difference is so small between most NHL players that it generally doesn’t impact possession numbers or scoring rates very much.

Whatever advanced stats that exist out there can all tell me Perrault is better than Marchand. I still won't accept that Perrault is better than Marchand. Because perrault is not better than Marchand

 

[cneely]

This is probably the single worst analogy I've ever seen used on these boards.


The longer he sits out, the less value he gets. The complete opposite of what you seem to think.

Again, based on what logic, and what examples do you have to prove that out?

I just don't see it. Anything can happen. Injuries, rookies not working out, etc. Trouba's value may actually go up once GM's have had a chance to assess their rosters.