Proposal: Trouba Mega Thread Part VI

[Gump Hasek]

To recap the thread for anyone who hasn't read through...

Non Jets fans- We'll offer you fair value for Trouba.

Jets fans- Ok, but all your offers are terrible. All we want is Connor McDavid or PK Subban. But wait, PK Subban might not even be as good as Trouba, because Trouba can win 4 or 5 Norris trophies by the time he's PK's age. You'll have to throw in 4 first round picks with PK if you want Trouba...

Non Jets fans- That's crazy.

Jets fans- We have a farm team! and it's amazing! We don't make any trades unless we want to! We're going to make Trouba sit unless we get the (irrational) return we expect!

Keep building that strawman.

To repeat, the Jets ask per Elliotte Friedman is an "elite, young player with term or team control". 99.999% of the supposed offers of fair value here fail to meet the team's ask.

The ask is high because it replaces the loss; that represents a fair return, and especially versus a bunch of offers that are reliant upon either futures the Jets do not need or players they do not need. Hope that helps.

 

[Montecristo]

Keep building that strawman.

To repeat, the Jets ask per Elliotte Friedman is an "elite, young player with term or team control". 99.999% of the supposed offers of fair value here fail to meet the team's ask.



The ask is high because it replaces the loss; that represents a fair return, and especially versus a bunch of offers that are reliant upon either futures the Jets do not need or players they do not need. Hope that helps.

I guess the continued reluctance to meet the ask on this board is running parrelel with the reluctance to meet the ask in real life. How many years will Winnipeg let trouba rot before lowering the ask. If the ask never comes than Winnipeg and trouba are worse off right? Sometimes it's better to exchange a dollar for 80 cents than it is to crumple up that dollar and throw it away

 

[Curufinwe]

MDZ + Sanheim still seems like the best offer I've seen.

 

[North]

I guess the continued reluctance to meet the ask on this board is running parrelel with the reluctance to meet the ask in real life. How many years will Winnipeg let trouba rot before lowering the ask. If the ask never comes than Winnipeg and trouba are worse off right? Sometimes it's better to exchange a dollar for 80 cents than it is to crumple up that dollar and throw it away

The team doesn't want 80 cents. They want a dollar and they have every right to wait until they get that dollar.

Maybe when Trouba is worth 80 cents they'll change their minds and except that 80 cents.

That time isn't here though.

So any team offering their 80 cents can keep it. The Jets will keep their dollar for now.

 

[Montecristo]

The team doesn't want 80 cents. They want a dollar and they have every right to wait until they get that dollar.

Maybe when Trouba is worth 80 cents they'll change their minds and except that 80 cents.

That time isn't here though.

So any team offering their 80 cents can keep it. The Jets will keep their dollar for now.

Right. So I'm asking when will the price drop. Next offseason? Beginning of next year? 2 years from now? And that dollar your keeping is currently worth 0 cents to you. You're hoping someone will pay you a dollar for your unusable dollar

 

[Aavco Cup]

The team doesn't want 80 cents. They want a dollar and they have every right to wait until they get that dollar.

Maybe when Trouba is worth 80 cents they'll change their minds and except that 80 cents.

That time isn't here though.

So any team offering their 80 cents can keep it. The Jets will keep their dollar for now.

A local Winnipeg radio guy phrased it the best IMO.

The Jets don't want four quarters for a Loonie ($1)

 

[allan5oh]

Great stuff, and I hear you.

My take is however this -- and I could be wrong for sure -- I think you guys are overrating your current roster and farm. I just don't see a bunch of very valuable players worth protecting and I just don't see an overfull farm not counting the players already in the NHL.

See that's where you're making a mistake. You're assuming we are saying this is a playoff team or a contender. That's not what we're saying. If we make the playoffs this year it will be a surprise. Most Jets fans see this as a development year.

I saw Joel Armia the first time in 2009, I know who he is. I am not a very big fan. Ok player, but not a great fit in today's game IMO and I don't think he is the type who can like help make a line special on a contender.

Have you seen him this year? He's been put into a different role and is thriving. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the first to play on the top 6 when there's an injury. He's been our best player in some games. His board work and stick are amazing at getting the puck, he's also getting 2-3 steals a game. If he was playing with better linemates he would have many more points, but they lack finish.

Shawn Mattias is in the same mold for me.

An acceptable player, we brought him in mostly because of his PK abilities not his scoring.

Drew Stafford brings a lot of energy, but to be honest he also lacks a lot of things in his game.

We know that and he is the most likely to be traded at the deadline even if we're in a playoff spot

A 6'6 forward like Adam Lowry just don't do much for me given how the game is looking.

Another guy that may just be trade bait. He played amazingly well against Kesler in the playoffs. Last year was a down year.

I really like Connor, but like to me is a bit of a poor man's Teevu Teravainen if you get what I mean. Or "poor man's" is a bad choice of words, more like in the same mold as TT. Will need some time. Probably will become a good player. But not a lock to become a good player, also a kid that really needs to be put in the same environment.

Agreed, he will likely go down to the Moose soon. No issue as we have talent down there.

Wheeler is getting older.

He's still one of the most dangerous wingers in the game.

Little has a ton of miles on his body.

With the emergence of Scheifele this isn't much an issue.

When you claim that JT Miller only would be a marginal upgrade over what you got, I just don't think you are right. Right or wrong, go and check the Rangers board, JT Miller is NYR's Nikolaj Ehlers, just 3 years longer into his development path. JT has pwned a U18 WJC. Been very good on a team that won a U20 WJCs. He came in as an optimistic puck hog who skated eights around everyone before crashing into someone or something. Then got a few years of tough love and has shaped up his 2-way game, and now is starting to find that mix.

Right or wrong, go and check the Rangers board, Chris Kreider is NYR's Mark Schleife. And Kreider has been just sick this season.

Back to the Little injury of last season Scheifele has produced the most points in the NHL. Number one.

And I never proposed that Winnipeg should trade Trouba for forwards, I did include Brady Skjei in my proposal.

He won't be traded for forwards, but Skjei is an option as part of a package.

 

[mondo3]

While the initial rumor was the Chevy wanted a roster D player for Trouba, I think the expansion draft requires the Jet's to choose an expansion protected player, as otherwise they'd likely be losing the new player, as they already have to protect Enstrom, Byfuglien, and Myers.

 

[zsam]

To recap the thread for anyone who hasn't read through...

Non Jets fans- We'll offer you fair value for Trouba.

Jets fans- Ok, but all your offers are terrible. All we want is Connor McDavid or PK Subban. But wait, PK Subban might not even be as good as Trouba, because Trouba can win 4 or 5 Norris trophies by the time he's PK's age. You'll have to throw in 4 first round picks with PK if you want Trouba...

Non Jets fans- That's crazy.

Jets fans- We have a farm team! and it's amazing! We don't make any trades unless we want to! We're going to make Trouba sit unless we get the (irrational) return we expect!

Please stay away from "recapping" in the future ... you are not doing a good job ...

 

[tbcwpg]

To recap the thread for anyone who hasn't read through...

Non Jets fans- We'll offer you fair value for Trouba.

Fair value in a vacuum, maybe, but not fair value in a "Hey, we know you need a d-man as a primary return, but we'll just offer 2 good forwards and a d prospect. Trouba wants out so you just take what you can get.

Jets fans- Ok, but all your offers are terrible. All we want is Connor McDavid or PK Subban. But wait, PK Subban might not even be as good as Trouba, because Trouba can win 4 or 5 Norris trophies by the time he's PK's age. You'll have to throw in 4 first round picks with PK if you want Trouba...

A bit hyperbolic, but I do think some Jets fans are expecting a return that isn't going to come.

Non Jets fans- That's crazy.

Jets fans- We have a farm team! and it's amazing! We don't make any trades unless we want to! We're going to make Trouba sit unless we get the (irrational) return we expect!

Winger prospect depth is a strength. I don't think the Jets will trade Trouba just because - they will do it to improve the organization and shore up positions of weakness, not add to positions of strength. A 2nd line C or a top 4 d-man will probably have to be the primary return, and they will have to be at that level now, not maybe in a couple of years they will. Also, the expansion draft has to be taken into account, a package that includes multiple players that would have to be protected is not going to be attractive in the least.

You can use all the hyperbole you want, but the Jets aren't in a position where they must trade Trouba by Dec 1 or else - Trouba needs to sign by Dec 1 or he isn't playing. The deadline is all on him.

 

[buggs]

Right. So I'm asking when will the price drop. Next offseason? Beginning of next year? 2 years from now? And that dollar your keeping is currently worth 0 cents to you. You're hoping someone will pay you a dollar for your unusable dollar

Not quite right. The dollar is only currently unusable in Winnipeg. It becomes unusable by everyone else after December 1st, but not until then. (I suppose it's fair to say the dollar is unusable in Canada, if rumors about Trouba not being willing to move to another Canadian franchise are true)

The price will likely drop sometime around the draft next year or shortly after. Possibly a little before if the expansion draft occurs prior to the draft since the Jets may not want to protect a player that isn't coming back. But as of right now I think the Jets are comfortable punching back at Overhardt/Trouba for the stunt they're pulling. Morrissey's solid play has allowed them to handle the situation thus far without too much grief. So the Jets will continue to look for that dollar for at least the next month.

There's a small possibility that a team may tank during the remainder of the season at some point as well and may opt to take Trouba as an unplayable asset in much the same way Buffalo did with Kane. Will lightning strike twice? I doubt it, but it's a possibility though I don't think there's the same excitement about the draft that there was when McDavid/Eichel came into the league.

But right now you have an agent and a player trying to circumvent the CBA. Winnipeg, like many other Canadian teams and certain less desirable American teams needs the CBA to be adhered to so that assets don't walk away for whatever reason tickles their fancy at a specific moment in time. RFAs exist to give teams a limited amount of control over an asset so that they can be competitive. Unfortunately for the league they desperately need the Canadian teams to be in the league because they account for roughly 60% of the money generated by the league. For those teams to remain viable they need to have that protection. Winnipeg is very clearly one of those teams as it appears on many NTC lists I'm sure. If Chevy caves and takes $0.80 on the dollar he sends a clear message to all the RFAs he'll have under his tenure going forward - play hardball with me and you win. He can ill afford to do that. So a dollar remains a dollar. For now. How long it remains that way depends entirely on how angry Chevy/True North are about the situation.

 

[cobra427]

I suspect you're wrong and have it backwards again. Deadline?? What deadline is Chevy under? Trouba is under a deadline, not Chevy. What's the difference to Chevy? Trouba isn't playing now, what's the difference if he isn't playing on Dec 2?

And you have it backwards with the GM doing the favour. Chevy is not going to trade Trouba for less than he's worth, just to help out another GM. He just won't do it. I suspect when Trouba is traded the return will be excellent, and all the naysayers will disappear from the thread.

I'm still waiting for you to provide proof of a players' value dropping the longer you wait. So tell me, what is Trouba's value now and what will it be in a week. The way you're talking it seems like it is a pretty linear drop. So, you must have a chart or something?? Or is it something you're making up?

Chevy will be helping the Jets by trading Trouba not another GM. Trouba is worth what he is worth based on the offers received. Chevy might think he is worth more, Jets fans might think he is worth more, but he is only worth the best offer received. If Trouba does not play in the NHL for a year, do you really think an idle player is worth more a year later then he is now? If he is forced to sign, he might be Turris (one example), not play hard and tank the return even more.

Chevy can talk tough all he wants but he has to make a move and the rest of the NHL knows his hand. I know he was concerned about Meyers return which might be why he didn't move Trouba in the summer, looks like a mistake now. He will still get a good return in the next few weeks just not great or what it could have been in the summer.

 

[mondo3]

You can use all the hyperbole you want, but the Jets aren't in a position where they must trade Trouba by Dec 1 or else - Trouba needs to sign by Dec 1 or he isn't playing. The deadline is all on him

If there was no expansion draft, that would be true. As I just mentioned a few posts ago, it would be easier for the Jet's if Trouba was traded for someone they could protect (unless Enstrom waives his NM clause).

 

[Stream*]

Right. So I'm asking when will the price drop. Next offseason? Beginning of next year? 2 years from now? And that dollar your keeping is currently worth 0 cents to you. You're hoping someone will pay you a dollar for your unusable dollar

Who says the price is going to drop? It's not like the demand for 22 year old RHD has dropped off and will only increase as teams realize what there team needs are.

 

[Whileee]

When are they not in Winnipeg?

When these key players they drafted / acquired by trade since 2011 are experienced enough to win...

Scheifele, Lowry, Armia (23)
Trouba, Hellebuyck (22)
Morrissey, Dano (21)
Ehlers, Lemieux (20)
Connor, Roslovic (19)
Laine (18)

I'd guess in the next 2-3 year years.

 

[Cheapshot]

Must say this will be very interesting to see how this works out. Will he sign a bridge deal just to get some games in and then be traded? Or will Chevy hold him out all year and diminish his value? Either way it will be interesting to see what he goes for and if Chevy really does get a comparable D for him. And wether or not that's comparable because he sat out or played games.

 

[DRC]

Must say this will be very interesting to see how this works out. Will he sign a bridge deal just to get some games in and then be traded? Or will Chevy hold him out all year and diminish his value? Either way it will be interesting to see what he goes for and if Chevy really does get a comparable D for him. And wether or not that's comparable because he sat out or played games.

30 thoughts:
8. Speaking of Trouba, there were some rumours last weekend he was considering a return to the Jets, but only on a short-term bridge deal. That was denied. We’re a month away from the deadline for him to sign and play this season.

I really think it's a 6 year or sit year

 

[Montecristo]

Who says the price is going to drop? It's not like the demand for 22 year old RHD has dropped off and will only increase as teams realize what there team needs are.

If the trade demands from Winnipeg aren't met by 2018-19 and trouba still is unsigned. Winnipeg will not budge off of their elite young controllable LHD of equal value but less money?

 

[nyr__1994]

If there was no expansion draft, that would be true. As I just mentioned a few posts ago, it would be easier for the Jet's if Trouba was traded for someone they could protect (unless Enstrom waives his NM clause).

Brady Skjei is a young LD that is exempt from the expansion draft, is cost controlled on his ELC, has one more year after this one. In his first full NHL season (this one) is currently pushing Marc Staal for top 4 minutes and running the 2nd PP unit.

Sounds like he fits what the Jets are looking for as far as D-men go. The question becomes what needs to be added? I think if there was an offer for Miller and Skjei proposed by the NYR that a deal would have been made already. Miller is currently at a PPG pace this season, is generating scoring chances left and right and can play any F position.

As an NYR fan, I hesitate at giving up both of those players in a deal for Trouba, and I think 'peg fans would hesitate at that package as well. Does that mean the value is there? Maybe....

 

[Gump Hasek]

30 thoughts:
8. Speaking of Trouba, there were some rumours last weekend he was considering a return to the Jets, but only on a short-term bridge deal. That was denied. We’re a month away from the deadline for him to sign and play this season.

I really think it's a 6 year or sit year

Exactly. Why reward them with a short-term contract that would require further future dealings with the agent?

Sign this deal or sit. That way we control the disposition of our asset, not you.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Fair value in a vacuum, maybe, but not fair value in a "Hey, we know you need a d-man as a primary return, but we'll just offer 2 good forwards and a d prospect. Trouba wants out so you just take what you can get.



A bit hyperbolic, but I do think some Jets fans are expecting a return that isn't going to come.



Winger prospect depth is a strength. I don't think the Jets will trade Trouba just because - they will do it to improve the organization and shore up positions of weakness, not add to positions of strength. A 2nd line C or a top 4 d-man will probably have to be the primary return, and they will have to be at that level now, not maybe in a couple of years they will. Also, the expansion draft has to be taken into account, a package that includes multiple players that would have to be protected is not going to be attractive in the least.

You can use all the hyperbole you want, but the Jets aren't in a position where they must trade Trouba by Dec 1 or else - Trouba needs to sign by Dec 1 or he isn't playing. The deadline is all on him.

Skjei+Hayes/Miller. Skjei is LH defensemen, first round pick in his first NHL season, expansion except. MIller and Hayes are both young, bridge deals, RFA´s in two seasons, Hayes scored 45 points or something in his rookie year, Miller scored 22 goals last season. Both can play 2nd line center. Miller 9 points in 9 games so far, Hayes 6 points in 9 games. Both play center and wing and can play on pk and pp.

 

[cneely]

Chevy will be helping the Jets by trading Trouba not another GM. Trouba is worth what he is worth based on the offers received. Chevy might think he is worth more, Jets fans might think he is worth more, but he is only worth the best offer received. If Trouba does not play in the NHL for a year, do you really think an idle player is worth more a year later then he is now? If he is forced to sign, he might be Turris (one example), not play hard and tank the return even more.

Chevy can talk tough all he wants but he has to make a move and the rest of the NHL knows his hand. I know he was concerned about Meyers return which might be why he didn't move Trouba in the summer, looks like a mistake now. He will still get a good return in the next few weeks just not great or what it could have been in the summer.

You say on one hand that he is only worth what is offered, and then in the next paragraph state "the rest of the NHL knows his hand". This is the problem. I think the rest of the NHL is trying to see if Chevy will blink and are making offers that may not be full fair market value. Chevy's job for the Jets is to hold out as long as it takes to make sure that he gets fair value, and other teams are very aware that he is not willing to take less than fair value just for the sake of making a move.

 

[cneely]

Brady Skjei is a young LD that is exempt from the expansion draft, is cost controlled on his ELC, has one more year after this one. In his first full NHL season (this one) is currently pushing Marc Staal for top 4 minutes and running the 2nd PP unit.

Sounds like he fits what the Jets are looking for as far as D-men go. The question becomes what needs to be added? I think if there was an offer for Miller and Skjei proposed by the NYR that a deal would have been made already. Miller is currently at a PPG pace this season, is generating scoring chances left and right and can play any F position.

As an NYR fan, I hesitate at giving up both of those players in a deal for Trouba, and I think 'peg fans would hesitate at that package as well. Does that mean the value is there? Maybe....

I think in terms of value, that's an excellent offer. The Jets really need to improve on defence though, and adding a forward is not really the best case scenario for them.

 

[Hunter368]

To recap the thread for anyone who hasn't read through...

Non Jets fans- We'll offer you fair value for Trouba.

Jets fans- Ok, but all your offers are terrible. All we want is Connor McDavid or PK Subban. But wait, PK Subban might not even be as good as Trouba, because Trouba can win 4 or 5 Norris trophies by the time he's PK's age. You'll have to throw in 4 first round picks with PK if you want Trouba...

Non Jets fans- That's crazy.

Jets fans- We have a farm team! and it's amazing! We don't make any trades unless we want to! We're going to make Trouba sit unless we get the (irrational) return we expect!

This is pure fiction. The problem often is with offers, that posters feel like Chevy is in a position of weakness (which he's not) and will be forced to take 50 cents on the dollar (which is wrong).

Then you get offers that don't take a single consideration into our needs, posters just offer us what they feel they can spare on their team. This also will not be received well.

If you want an offer to be taken seriously then put in thought into what our needs are and offer us value for value. If you don't do this your offer won't be received well.

We know exactly what Trouba is and isn't, he isn't PK.....Trouba is a 22 year old RFA rha that currently is a #2/3 Dman with #1 potential. We own his rights for a min of 4 more years and is very valuable.

So make real offers, that take into account our needs, offer value for value and your offer will be seriously considered.

 

[Hunter368]

Skjei+Hayes/Miller. Skjei is LH defensemen, first round pick in his first NHL season, expansion except. MIller and Hayes are both young, bridge deals, RFA´s in two seasons, Hayes scored 45 points or something in his rookie year, Miller scored 22 goals last season. Both can play 2nd line center. Miller 9 points in 9 games so far, Hayes 6 points in 9 games. Both play center and wing and can play on pk and pp.

IMO Miller & Skjei is at least a reasonable offer, not sure if Chevy would take it or not but at least it's reasonable IMO.