Proposal: Trouba Mega Thread Part VI

[CaptainChef]

We should get this done, Trouba to Detroit for Dekeyser + Cholowski + 2017 2nd

Doubt this is the best offer on the table, but its close. Make that a 2017 1st and I'd do it.

 

[Coach Parker]

The main pieces on the Jets are

Laine - Scheifele- Wheeler
Ehlers - Little

Morrissey - Buff
Enstrom - Myers

There is one spot open there in the Top 6. Some of the players you have waiting in the wings... Armia, Roslovic, Connor, Dano, Lemeiux, Petan.

Why would you trade a piece like Trouba, for someone who isn't an immediate upgrade over one of the 6 listed, or someone who is going to slot in on the defense.

The Jets don't have a juggernaut team, but they have lots of mid-level depth... why would you trade a marquee piece (which Trouba is), just to create more of a log jam there?

To be clear, I don't think Spooner is the perfect fit for the Jets as to what they want in return. Having said that, would you be surprised to hear me say that I would bet you that if the trade did go down (we can bet vCash or simple sportsman's bet) that by the time the last ten games of the season come up, Spooner would be in Little's spot on the second line with Ehlers? I would be betting that Little would be down to the third line and Spooner and Ehler's chemistry would be too good to split up.

Again, I think the prospect trade without Spooner above seems to make more sense for Jets fans than including Spooner.

 

[Coach Parker]

Anaheim changed no one and went from dead last to first. Powerplays go up and down like that all the time. Players who are only ok 5v5 usually are not going to change a powerplays fortunes like that.

All things considered I'd rather use the more talented players like the ones I mentioned above. Spooner just wouldn't be in the Jets plans for powerplay time going forward, they'd be doing everything to get their younger players clicking there instead.

I decided to check their GAR scores (Goals above replacement, kind of like the WAR stat from baseball) to validate my eye test and interpretation of their numbers. I threw throw in a couple other players for reference

Even strength GAR/60 (to normalize for min played)
PATRICE.BERGERON 0.46
MATHIEU.PERREAULT 0.36
BRAD.MARCHAND 0.33
BRYAN.LITTLE 0.20
RYAN.SPOONER 0.1
ADAM.LOWRY 0.09

Lowry's score is nearly the same even though he's 2 years younger and like I suggested it mostly comes down to Spooner being a bit better offensively while Lowry is better defensively. Spooner scored well on the PP but like I said I don't see him there on the Jets so it's an non issue as far as trades go. He may help Boston, but he would not be a major piece for the Jets.

I can't believe this isn't a troll job. Can you put thos same stats up there for Spooner vs. Kane? I mean if we are going to compare players that have HALF the points of the other guy, let's double Spooner's points and pick some stats out!

 

[drw02]

Doubt this is the best offer on the table, but its close. Make that a 2017 1st and I'd do it.

I'd do a 1st so long as we get some lottery protection. Say top 5 protected just in case Wings season gets rocky.

 

[CaptainChef]

I can't believe this isn't a troll job. Can you put thos same stats up there for Spooner vs. Kane? I mean if we are going to compare players that have HALF the points of the other guy, let's double Spooner's points and pick some stats out!

I think you're a little high on Spooner. No doubt his offensive stats are good, but he really sucks at possession stats. I know that hero charts aren't the do all & end all of comparisons, but have a look at Perrault vs Spooner if you don't buy the GAR stats that were presented.

As for your bet that Spooner would take over Little's spot at 2C, not in your life. Little is very good -- well deserving of the 1C spot he held until this year. Sure Spooner & Ehlers might click big time, but to say Spooner would overtake Little in a year is totally unrealistic.

http://public.tableau.com/shared/BZGQJ5B7F?:display_count=yes

 

[Montecristo]

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/10/28/testing-and-final-remarks/



Not really Perreault is one of the most underrated players in the NHL. I'm more surprised at how far the two of them were ahead of Little.

Perreault been one of the leagues elite possession players over the last few years and one of only a handful of players that really moves the needle for on ice shooting %. The main drawback with him is that he's somewhat injury prone. Perreault shot about 10 percentage points below his career average this year, but the model here is working off expected goals. As long as he's getting shots from good locations, which he was, it doesn't care.

Marchand is one of the best players in the NHL. Perrault may be underrated (probably is considering I view him as just a 40~ point 3rd liner) But he isn't a top 20 forward in the NHL the way Marchand is.
Either way trouba has a .183 GAR. Whatever kevan Miller has is probably higher than trouba (couldn't find any weird stats on Bruins players) and if that's the case than the stat is bogus because I'm led to believe trouba is good.

 

[Montecristo]

I think you're a little high on Spooner. No doubt his offensive stats are good, but he really sucks at possession stats. I know that hero charts aren't the do all & end all of comparisons, but have a look at Perrault vs Spooner if you don't buy the GAR stats that were presented.

As for your bet that Spooner would take over Little's spot at 2C, not in your life. Little is very good -- well deserving of the 1C spot he held until this year. Sure Spooner & Ehlers might click big time, but to say Spooner would overtake Little in a year is totally unrealistic.

http://public.tableau.com/shared/BZGQJ5B7F?:display_count=yes

How about Lowry vs spooner. Who's the better player to you? And those stats are far from the be all end all. they are imperfect. They think kevan Miller is a top pairing defenseman in 2 categories. A top 4 dman in 4. That alone tells you the stat is imperfect if you watch 2 minutes of kevan Miller you'd know he isn't more than a 6

 

[Coach Parker]

I think you're a little high on Spooner. No doubt his offensive stats are good, but he really sucks at possession stats. I know that hero charts aren't the do all & end all of comparisons, but have a look at Perrault vs Spooner if you don't buy the GAR stats that were presented.

As for your bet that Spooner would take over Little's spot at 2C, not in your life. Little is very good -- well deserving of the 1C spot he held until this year. Sure Spooner & Ehlers might click big time, but to say Spooner would overtake Little in a year is totally unrealistic.

http://public.tableau.com/shared/BZGQJ5B7F?:display_count=yes

Oh, I know Little is better than him and I love the guy. What I'm saying is that Spooner's chemistry with Ehlers and their speed would be too good to pass up. Perhaps that means Ehler's and Spooner on a third line together I don't know. What I was betting was a chemistry there that would surprise enough for Little to be moved down.

We will never know unless the trade happens but if it does I'll engage in that wager with you.

P.S. Taking your trade proposal to the Bruins board for reactions (the Zboril, Lauzon and 1st one).

 

[Pia8988]

How about Lowry vs spooner. Who's the better player to you? And those stats are far from the be all end all. they are imperfect. They think kevan Miller is a top pairing defenseman in 2 categories. A top 4 dman in 4. That alone tells you the stat is imperfect if you watch 2 minutes of kevan Miller you'd know he isn't more than a 6

 

[Montecristo]

What's that mean?/trouba vs kevan Miller and what's that mean,

 

[CaptainChef]

Oh, I know Little is better than him and I love the guy. What I'm saying is that Spooner's chemistry with Ehlers and their speed would be too good to pass up. Perhaps that means Ehler's and Spooner on a third line together I don't know. What I was betting was a chemistry there that would surprise enough for Little to be moved down.

We will never know unless the trade happens but if it does I'll engage in that wager with you.

P.S. Taking your trade proposal to the Bruins board for reactions (the Zboril, Lauzon and 1st one).

Good luck with that -- I'm sure you'll get blasted just like I would if I took that proposal to the Jets board lol.

 

[CaptainChef]

What's that mean?/trouba vs kevan Miller and what's that mean,

Looks pretty realistic to me. Its showing Lowry to be better defensively, but on the whole you wouldn't expect him to be better than Spooner

 

[aufheben]

If advanced stats are imperfect, what are fan opinions?

 

[Montecristo]

If advanced stats are imperfect, what are fan opinions?

Depends on the fan

 

[Paradise*]

Just like every player, every fan is an individual. Imperfect.

 

[Montecristo]

Just like every player, every fan is an individual. Imperfect.

I'm more of a goals/assists guy. More sabremetrics less analytics.

Like every game trouba doesn't play he has a 0% chance to help Winnipeg win...sabremetrics.

Every game Adam mcquaid does play he has a 0% chance to help team win. Sabremetrics

 

[Paradise*]

I'm more of a goals/assists guy. More sabremetrics less analytics.

Like every game trouba doesn't play he has a 0% chance to help Winnipeg win...sabremetrics.

Every game Adam mcquaid does play he has a 0% chance to help team win. Sabremetrics

Goals win games.

 

[Pia8988]

What's that mean?/trouba vs kevan Miller and what's that mean,

Spooner is much better offensively, especially playmaking. Lowry is better at suppressing opponents from getting chances, but not great in that department.

 

[MikeRahl]

To be clear, I don't think Spooner is the perfect fit for the Jets as to what they want in return. Having said that, would you be surprised to hear me say that I would bet you that if the trade did go down (we can bet vCash or simple sportsman's bet) that by the time the last ten games of the season come up, Spooner would be in Little's spot on the second line with Ehlers? I would be betting that Little would be down to the third line and Spooner and Ehler's chemistry would be too good to split up.

Again, I think the prospect trade without Spooner above seems to make more sense for Jets fans than including Spooner.

I'd be willing to to look at that if they end up at the same time. I think the likelihood of Ehlers and Spooner on the same (2nd) line would probably not come to pass, as I would expect that the Jets would play their young, offensive dynamo with a more defensive minded center (especially if the other wing ends up being Laine or Connor. I haven't seen Spooner enough to know if he is that guy... but the HERO chart someone posted doesn't seem to point to that.

Advanced Stats are interesting, obviously they are a hard sell because boiling things down to shot attempts and zone starts leaves a lot of information still on the table. Baseball is nice and clean because it essentially boils down to a whole whack of 1 vs 1 opportunities. Basketball is nice because there are so many counting stats. Football is nice because there is only so much each player can do against what they are lined up against, it is obvious when someone screws up play over play.

With Hockey there is so much, what were the rest of the defense doing, what was the goalie doing, so many small things that are hard to directly quantify. I don't doubt that they are going to get there but right now they are just one tool in the tool box.

 

[MikeRahl]

Goals win games.

Not giving up any goals wins games

 

[lomiller1]

Marchand is one of the best players in the NHL. Perrault may be underrated (probably is considering I view him as just a 40~ point 3rd liner) But he isn't a top 20 forward in the NHL the way Marchand is.

Perreault and Marchand have nearly identical P/60 over the last 5 years. The gap in their total points is largely a function of differences in min and games.

Either way trouba has a .183 GAR. Whatever kevan Miller has is probably higher than trouba (couldn't find any weird stats on Bruins players) and if that's the case than the stat is bogus because I'm led to believe trouba is good.

not doing the rates since the online tool is a PITA and it only makes a difference when there is a big difference in min played
Last year
Among NHL D-men Trouba ranks:
32 for Pure GAR (no penalties) with 6.26
18 for Even Strength GAR at 5.25

So basically towards the bottom end of #1 D.

JT Miller is on the 4th page of F at 40 per page, so somewhere is the 140ish range. Basically a second line guy.

Prior to that J.T. Miller was essentially a replacement level player (4th line type) while Trouba ranks in the mid 50's among D. (low end of top pair D)

 

[cobra427]

You like to keep repeating this nonsense even though you can't provide even one example of it actually happening and most hockey insiders disagree with you. We know you're agenda is to justify that 7th round pick you'll finally, graciously agree to offer us.

Just try to understand, while it may work that way in your mind, it doesn't work that way in real life. Trouba's value has not dropped at all to NHL GM's. They all know a prime piece like Trouba will cost them dearly.

If Trouba were already signed to a multi year contract and nobody knew he wanted out, then you would be correct. Chevy would have time to make a deal and Trouba could actually get better on the ice. A performing young player under contract, when you don't have to move him, is worth more money. Who said anything about a 7th?

Trouba has been for sale for months, and the Jets face a dead line. Every GM knows this fact. Why would another GM break up his team to over pay for Trouba and bail Chevy out of a jam? Nobody will do him any favors. The return will still be good just not great like it could have been this summer.

I know what Chevy is saying and what he is telling the media and what they are repeating. I would say the same thing if I was him. It is window dressing, not reality. I suspect when he is traded in the next few weeks, the return will be decent but Jets fans will hate it.

 

[Coach Parker]

Good luck with that -- I'm sure you'll get blasted just like I would if I took that proposal to the Jets board lol.

The only time trade value is close is when both sides think they are overpaying. In the end it's usually the people who take a second to look at the value and needs of the other teams that have a pretty solid assessment.

 

[Montecristo]

Perreault and Marchand have nearly identical P/60 over the last 5 years. The gap in their total points is largely a function of differences in min and games.





not doing the rates since the online tool is a PITA and it only makes a difference when there is a big difference in min played
Last year
Among NHL D-men Trouba ranks:
32 for Pure GAR (no penalties) with 6.26
18 for Even Strength GAR at 5.25

So basically towards the bottom end of #1 D.

JT Miller is on the 4th page of F at 40 per page, so somewhere is the 140ish range. Basically a second line guy.

Prior to that J.T. Miller was essentially a replacement level player (4th line type) while Trouba ranks in the mid 50's among D. (low end of top pair D)

The problem with p/60 is that players with limited ice time and good numbers get even better numbers when had their minutes increased they likely would have more minutes against other teams top lines. I think there was a year Brett Connolly was like top 10 in g/60 with 12 goals. The more minutes perrault plays doesn't translate into an equal uptick in points. I like this stat. Points vs points. It's an oldie.

 

[lomiller1]

The problem with p/60 is that players with limited ice time and good numbers get even better numbers when had their minutes increased they likely would have more minutes against other teams top lines. I think there was a year Brett Connolly was like top 10 in g/60 with 12 goals. The more minutes perrault plays doesn't translate into an equal uptick in points. I like this stat. Points vs points. It's an oldie.

Perreault didn't play "limited min" per game difference between the two is only about 2.5 min, less in recent years. QoC is very similar as well whether you measure it by ToI, CF% or xGF%

The biggest difference is injuries, Perreault has played about 50 less games over the last 5 seasons.