Proposal: Trouba Mega Thread Part VI

[Dijock94]

I think the biggest development has been Morrissey. I can see Chevys demands changing and that now he would prefer a younger LHD in a package instead of a 1 for 1 swap. Obviously this younger LHD wouldn't be as good.

If McDonagh is off the table do you think a trade to the Rangers could get done? A package involving Skjei? He's expansion exempt. Maybe Skjei Miller and Klein?

 

[Gump Hasek]

Trouba market value: this summer>last month>now>November 29th>next summer. If Trouba is not playing, his trade value goes in one direction daily.

There you go speaking in definitive terms again - sans a final result or even any knowledge of the true quality of any offers at any point in time. Injuries could occur that drive up his value to others. That is one way his value increases from today. Here is another. What we know: Trouba's real market value reportedly is $5.5 million per year over 6 years (the amount the Jets are prepared to offer, per Dreger). It doesn't appear that the Jets are proactively trying to trade him, per McKenzie. Signed for a 6-year term he would carry much more value in trade than he does today. It seems there are a variety of ways his value could increase from this date in fact after all.

Or, alternatively, he sits and rots and the Jets move forward regardless and this is revisited at a much later date... and the scenario repeats itself.

 

[Paradise*]

If McDonagh is off the table do you think a trade to the Rangers could get done? A package involving Skjei? He's expansion exempt. Maybe Skjei Miller and Klein?

I'd probably do this deal. I'd trade Klein at some point, most likely the TDL. I'm sure he'd land the Jets at least a 2nd + on top of the rest of that offer.

Of course I'd like a 1 for 1, but I'm not counting on it.

 

[Hunter368]

I'd probably do this deal. I'd trade Klein at some point, most likely the TDL. I'm sure he'd land the Jets at least a 2nd + on top of the rest of that offer.

Of course I'd like a 1 for 1, but I'm not counting on it.

Agreed. The very good play of Josh might lead Chevy in this direction. IMO Trouba will land a very good young forward (example Miller) plus a LHD prospect (example Skjei) and maybe a pick (depending on other pieces involved). Shocked if it's a one for one LHD

 

[broc]

Trouba market value: this summer>last month>now>November 29th>next summer. If Trouba is not playing, his trade value goes in one direction daily.

Holy crap, well if that holds true, we'll be lucky to get a 3rd round pick for him!

 

[lomiller1]

Strenuously disagree. Boston had been horribad on the PP for years. Then they added Spooner. Then the PP became very good. Occam's Razor on that one.

Anaheim changed no one and went from dead last to first. Powerplays go up and down like that all the time. Players who are only ok 5v5 usually are not going to change a powerplays fortunes like that.

All things considered I'd rather use the more talented players like the ones I mentioned above. Spooner just wouldn't be in the Jets plans for powerplay time going forward, they'd be doing everything to get their younger players clicking there instead.

I decided to check their GAR scores (Goals above replacement, kind of like the WAR stat from baseball) to validate my eye test and interpretation of their numbers. I threw throw in a couple other players for reference

Even strength GAR/60 (to normalize for min played)
PATRICE.BERGERON 0.46
MATHIEU.PERREAULT 0.36
BRAD.MARCHAND 0.33
BRYAN.LITTLE 0.20
RYAN.SPOONER 0.1
ADAM.LOWRY 0.09

Lowry's score is nearly the same even though he's 2 years younger and like I suggested it mostly comes down to Spooner being a bit better offensively while Lowry is better defensively. Spooner scored well on the PP but like I said I don't see him there on the Jets so it's an non issue as far as trades go. He may help Boston, but he would not be a major piece for the Jets.

 

[cobra427]

There you go speaking in definitive terms again - sans a final result or even any knowledge of the true quality of any offers at any point in time. Injuries could occur that drive up his value to others. That is one way his value increases from today. Here is another. What we know: Trouba's real market value reportedly is $5.5 million per year over 6 years (the amount the Jets are prepared to offer, per Dreger). It doesn't appear that the Jets are proactively trying to trade him, per McKenzie. Signed for a 6-year term he would carry much more value in trade than he does today. It seems there are a variety of ways his value could increase from this date in fact after all.

Or, alternatively, he sits and rots and the Jets move forward regardless and this is revisited at a much later date... and the scenario repeats itself.

Yes, an injury could make another team more interested but that is a long shot. That team would need to have cap space and be willing to send a core piece to the Jets, not likely. None of us need to see or know the quality of the offers. When a young 2nd pairing RHD is available for 4 months now, Chevy has had to receive multiple offers, and those offers determine market value. It is not like they have to move him quickly for fear of an offer sheet. they have had plenty of time. Market value is what it is.

5.5 at 6 years is speculation until he signs that contract or Chevy says that was the offer. Lindholm is better and just got 5.25 mill for 6 years. Trouba will get less than that and he isn't signing a 6 year deal with the Jets, that would be crazy for both parties now. The Jets don't have to actively be looking to move him, the world knows he is available and will call with offers. Your right, he could sit and rot, that will teach him, except you will get even less next summer.

 

[Gump Hasek]

You continue to speak in definitive terms despite lacking either a conclusion or even any corroborating input data as to the quality of trade offers at any point in time. You also have no idea what will happen in the future and as such are speaking out your backside. Any myriad of things could happen, including his trade value increasing from this point, counter to your persistent daily claim that it will fall.

 

[WesMcCauley]

If McDonagh is off the table do you think a trade to the Rangers could get done? A package involving Skjei? He's expansion exempt. Maybe Skjei Miller and Klein?

If Mcdonagh is off the table? Are you even serious? Mcdonagh is worth ALOT more than Trouba, not very likely that Trouba turns into as good of a player Mcdonagh is.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Agreed. The very good play of Josh might lead Chevy in this direction. IMO Trouba will land a very good young forward (example Miller) plus a LHD prospect (example Skjei) and maybe a pick (depending on other pieces involved). Shocked if it's a one for one LHD

Miller has 9 points in 9 games now, scored 22 goals last season, Skjei is looking great, first year in the NHL and Klein is a solid top 4D on a good deal. I think Klein+Skjei+Miller is overpaying by a good amount. Cant afford losing 3 players that good for Trouba. He isnt that good and i like Trouba alot.

 

[Dijock94]

If Mcdonagh is off the table? Are you even serious? Mcdonagh is worth ALOT more than Trouba, not very likely that Trouba turns into as good of a player Mcdonagh is.

It's been stated that was the ask from Winnipeg.

 

[RangerBlues]

Skjei, Miller and Klein?!?!?!
Ar folks smoking banana peels?????

 

[Dijock94]

Skjei, Miller and Klein?!?!?!
Ar folks smoking banana peels?????

Why? What would you consider realistic? Because you are not getting Trouba for Skjei straight up. And you need to clear enough cap to sign Trouba.

 

[aufheben]

Anaheim changed no one and went from dead last to first. Powerplays go up and down like that all the time. Players who are only ok 5v5 usually are not going to change a powerplays fortunes like that.

All things considered I'd rather use the more talented players like the ones I mentioned above. Spooner just wouldn't be in the Jets plans for powerplay time going forward, they'd be doing everything to get their younger players clicking there instead.

I decided to check their GAR scores (Goals above replacement, kind of like the WAR stat from baseball) to validate my eye test and interpretation of their numbers. I threw throw in a couple other players for reference

Even strength GAR/60 (to normalize for min played)
PATRICE.BERGERON 0.46
MATHIEU.PERREAULT 0.36
BRAD.MARCHAND 0.33
BRYAN.LITTLE 0.20
RYAN.SPOONER 0.1
ADAM.LOWRY 0.09

Lowry's score is nearly the same even though he's 2 years younger and like I suggested it mostly comes down to Spooner being a bit better offensively while Lowry is better defensively. Spooner scored well on the PP but like I said I don't see him there on the Jets so it's an non issue as far as trades go. He may help Boston, but he would not be a major piece for the Jets.

Where do you find these?

Miller has 9 points in 9 games now, scored 22 goals last season, Skjei is looking great, first year in the NHL and Klein is a solid top 4D on a good deal. I think Klein+Skjei+Miller is overpaying by a good amount. Cant afford losing 3 players that good for Trouba. He isnt that good and i like Trouba alot.

Skjei, Miller and Klein?!?!?!
Ar folks smoking banana peels?????

Are you guys serious? What am I missing in Brady Skjei that everyone seems to be head over heels for? He's a good prospect but I wouldn't even think twice about packing Miller and Skjei for Trouba.

 

[Montecristo]

Anaheim changed no one and went from dead last to first. Powerplays go up and down like that all the time. Players who are only ok 5v5 usually are not going to change a powerplays fortunes like that.

All things considered I'd rather use the more talented players like the ones I mentioned above. Spooner just wouldn't be in the Jets plans for powerplay time going forward, they'd be doing everything to get their younger players clicking there instead.

I decided to check their GAR scores (Goals above replacement, kind of like the WAR stat from baseball) to validate my eye test and interpretation of their numbers. I threw throw in a couple other players for reference

Even strength GAR/60 (to normalize for min played)
PATRICE.BERGERON 0.46
MATHIEU.PERREAULT 0.36
BRAD.MARCHAND 0.33
BRYAN.LITTLE 0.20
RYAN.SPOONER 0.1
ADAM.LOWRY 0.09

Lowry's score is nearly the same even though he's 2 years younger and like I suggested it mostly comes down to Spooner being a bit better offensively while Lowry is better defensively. Spooner scored well on the PP but like I said I don't see him there on the Jets so it's an non issue as far as trades go. He may help Boston, but he would not be a major piece for the Jets.

Did your stat that had perrault rated higher than Marchand raise any red flags to you about the legitimacy of your stat?

 

[Snowman]

Trouba market value: this summer>last month>now>November 29th>next summer. If Trouba is not playing, his trade value goes in one direction daily.

You like to keep repeating this nonsense even though you can't provide even one example of it actually happening and most hockey insiders disagree with you. We know you're agenda is to justify that 7th round pick you'll finally, graciously agree to offer us.

Just try to understand, while it may work that way in your mind, it doesn't work that way in real life. Trouba's value has not dropped at all to NHL GM's. They all know a prime piece like Trouba will cost them dearly.

 

[drw02]

We should get this done, Trouba to Detroit for Dekeyser + Cholowski + 2017 2nd

 

[Flyerfan52]

.

I also don't like just eliminating secondary assists as if no secondary assist counts towards a goal scoring opportunity.

2nd assists are very important. Whining to the scorer & refs for those got Dionne a scoring title over Gretzky 1 year.

 

[Paradise*]

We should get this done, Trouba to Detroit for Dekeyser + Cholowski + 2017 2nd

Rather let him sit.

The last place I send him to is Detroit.

 

[Flyerfan52]

Trouba market value: this summer>last month>now>November 29th>next summer. If Trouba is not playing, his trade value goes in one direction daily.

Maybe not his market value but his bank account gets smaller with every game missed. So does his agent's $s from the final take.
The ball is in Trouba's court. Make all the excuses he wants but there is no sympathy in Wpg. (& after his rejection of overtures fro Canadian based teams) probably none in other Canadian cities.
Let him miss a year if needed. 1/2 way through the season he can't make up the $s in Europe.
Like Stevie Y with Drouin Chevy isn't going to blink.

 

[WinnipegWinter*]

There you go speaking in definitive terms again - sans a final result or even any knowledge of the true quality of any offers at any point in time. Injuries could occur that drive up his value to others. That is one way his value increases from today. Here is another. What we know: Trouba's real market value reportedly is $5.5 million per year over 6 years (the amount the Jets are prepared to offer, per Dreger). It doesn't appear that the Jets are proactively trying to trade him, per McKenzie. Signed for a 6-year term he would carry much more value in trade than he does today. It seems there are a variety of ways his value could increase from this date in fact after all.

Or, alternatively, he sits and rots and the Jets move forward regardless and this is revisited at a much later date... and the scenario repeats itself.

Well said

 

[lomiller1]

Where do you find these?

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/10/28/testing-and-final-remarks/

Did your stat that had perrault rated higher than Marchand raise any red flags to you about the legitimacy of your stat?

Not really Perreault is one of the most underrated players in the NHL. I'm more surprised at how far the two of them were ahead of Little.

Perreault been one of the leagues elite possession players over the last few years and one of only a handful of players that really moves the needle for on ice shooting %. The main drawback with him is that he's somewhat injury prone. Perreault shot about 10 percentage points below his career average this year, but the model here is working off expected goals. As long as he's getting shots from good locations, which he was, it doesn't care.

 

[Confucius]

If she can't qualify for Medical school in Canada, she likely won't be qualifying at good schools in the US, either.

It's not like Trouba can get a trade to, say, DRW, and than she can apply for and automatically get into Michigan. That's a good school.

Sounds like he is making up excuses not to be in WPG, maybe western Canada, possibly all of Canada. Whether the excuses are good ones or not, this scenario is heading in only one direction.

Trade the bloody guy for max value. IMO, Jets are nuts to insist on a young, similarly talented LHD in return. They are limiting their their return.

I may be wrong but I think there is at least one school in the U S that if you pay enough they'll take you. Not saying they'd graduate you but they would accept you. I have a nephew who graduated university with very average grades. For a lark he applied to several med schools in the U S. Surprised as heck one school somewhere in Georgia would have accepted him for 250,000. That was about 5 years ago.

 

[Coach Parker]

5v5 the last 2 full seasons (2014 – 2016)
Spooner has 42 points and 33 primary points. Lowry has 34 points and 29 primary points. Spooner has more PP points but he isn’t getting a lot of PP time here.

Over that same period Spooner has a -3.5 Rel CF% and compared to Lowry’s -0.6. Even if he edges out Lowry it’d be for a 4th line role because Little and Perreault have the 2 and 3 spots. I don’t see him generating a lot of offence playing between Thorburn and Tanev.

Cherry pick stats all you want to suit this argument but even fellow Jets fans with knowledge wouldn't argue that Lowry and Spooner are comparable. Spooner is a much better player than Lowry. Much better.

 

[Coach Parker]

I really think there's a deal to be made with Boston. Seems like most Jets are just so-so with Spooner, however, and most Bruins aren't keen on trading Carlo (and if he's playing as well as Morrissey right now, how can you blame them).

If you can trade up to a top 4 of:
Krug - Trouba
Chara - Carlo
wouldn't that be the ultimate? That's what you have depth for in an organization, so you can make these trades.

Jets have been after a top line LHD, but that very likely won't happen. Alternatively, I'd be keen on them getting some depth on D (and maybe a future D-man with at least potential to have the upside that Trouba has).

Here's a possibility to consider that allows you guys to greatly enhance you defense, while keeping your forward strength. What would you think of this:

Zboril (LHD prospect)+ Lauzon/McAvoy (RHD? prospect) + 1st.

I know this digs somewhat into your defensive depth (plus I know that many fans in Wpg would object to just getting prospects in a deal). For sure, this is a step down from the OP (Spooner + Carlo + 1st), but maybe something that meets our future needs better, and allows us to go 3D + 7F for the expansion draft.

Thanks for reading and responding. You are 100% correct in the assessment that the ultimate goal is to push Chara and Carlo down to second pairing minutes and begin pairing Krug and Trouba together for the next half decade or so.

So the price comes up and I'd expect Chevy to push for that. Bruins fans love the draft picks Sweeney has made (not keen on the trades though) and Zbroil, Lauzon and a 1st is a steep, steep price. Steep enough to make Sweeney sit and wait but I believe by not including Carlo and McAvoy in the deal it would be ultimately done.

The reason: Chevy knows that the pressure is on Sweeney this year to make the playoffs and most of us believe a top pairing RHD pushes them into that wildcard spot.

High-priced deal, but once again one Chevy can hold out for and demand and Sweeney can make only because of the glut of picks he used the last year to stock the cupboard.