Proposal: Trouba Mega Thread Part VI

[lomiller1]

You guys just need to get a grip, like seriously. Your team is not perfect. Would that be so effin horrible to admit?

No one said it was perfect and even if we were it wouldn’t make you saying “Ehlers tops out as a 3rd liner†or “Scheifele will never be as good Backes†“Little is only a third line C†“Kyle Connor won’t be a top 9 forward†any less nonsensical.

Historically the Jets have been a good 5v5 team with bad goal-tending and problems with special teams but we think the pieces to fix this are already in place so our main flaw is that we are very young and need a D to do what Trouba can. Dylan McIlrath is not that D.

 

[tbcwpg]

My view is that Armia, Matthias, Perrault (!?), Stafford, Lowry, Tanev and the likes just aren't that good hockey players, not just good fits in the game today.

I have seen plenty of Petan and Dano. Look I have been wrong many times before, but I am faaar from sold on those two. Not saying that neither have potential, but I definitely wouldn't have them on like a top 50 prospect list. Just my humble opinion.

Hence I just think that JT Miller and Chris Kreider could help Winnipeg a lot in its quest to become a contender in this league. Please, don't take me the wrong way, I am not trying to stir things up. That is just my honest opinion.

Besides that there is a great need at LD too for sure. But somehow I also think you guys are overstating that hole too. When like Pittsburgh loose Malkin and Crosby at the same time, they are still tough to play against. Most teams play well even if they for a stretch loose like their top 2 LDs, their top 2 centers and so forth. Sure the LD position is not strong, but I think the biggest problem is the roster being a bit too weak.

And lastly, I would never say that Winnipeg should jump on whatever offers Gorton makes for Trouba, I actually think some team eventually will ant up and pay what Cheevy asks. Just gets annoyed at the "we have no needs talk".

Armia has been great this year but is a middle 6 forward at best - good to go between the 1st and 2nd lines. He has been great this year, a bit snakebitten in front of goal, but still one of the most effective forwards on the team. Perreault is a game changer, but I feel he's a bit streaky and is prone to injury - that said, he's an effective "middle 6" guy.

JT Miller and Kreider are good forwards - I like the Rangers so I might watch them a little more than the average Jets fan, but the issue with your original proposal is that it's not just adding Miller and Kreider, it's taking away Ehlers so they're really only filling one hole.

I think the issue that's being taken with your posts is that you underrate the Jets players and prospects. It's a young team, and is not a contender this year, but there's no point creating holes that don't need to be created - ie. trading Ehlers (who's better than a 3rd liner).

Throwing in McIlrath added no value. So it's basically Trouba and Ehlers for Kreider, Miller, and Skjei, which is not a great value trade for Winnipeg.

 

[Hunter368]

Armia has been great this year but is a middle 6 forward at best - good to go between the 1st and 2nd lines. He has been great this year, a bit snakebitten in front of goal, but still one of the most effective forwards on the team. Perreault is a game changer, but I feel he's a bit streaky and is prone to injury - that said, he's an effective "middle 6" guy.

JT Miller and Kreider are good forwards - I like the Rangers so I might watch them a little more than the average Jets fan, but the issue with your original proposal is that it's not just adding Miller and Kreider, it's taking away Ehlers so they're really only filling one hole.

I think the issue that's being taken with your posts is that you underrate the Jets players and prospects. It's a young team, and is not a contender this year, but there's no point creating holes that don't need to be created - ie. trading Ehlers (who's better than a 3rd liner).

Throwing in McIlrath added no value. So it's basically Trouba and Ehlers for Kreider, Miller, and Skjei, which is not a great value trade for Winnipeg.

Agreed, plus Miller and Kreider both need to be protected I believe.....where as Ehlers doesn't. Major point if I'm correct. Rangers fan can confirm, but I know Kreider does, not 100% on Miller

 

[Montecristo]

Lowry’s first season was 2014, Spooner already had 27 games played at the start of the 2014 season. Total TOI difference between the two is ~400 min in Lowry’s favor but Spooner played 200 more min 5v4. If you go back to the 2012 and include those 27 games (Spooner is 2 years older so that puts them at the same starting age)5v5 Lowry has 17 G 34 P and 29 Primary points. Spooner has 11G 47P and 35 Primary points. Spooner has a little bit larger lead but most of that is secondary assists.

I never said Spooner wasn’t capable of being offensively productive, I just don’t think he’d produce significantly more for the Jets than Lowry does and the numbers bare this out.. Lowry got 0.05 PPG from Powerplay and secondary assists in that period while Spooner got 0.28. Their strength points per game are not that far apart and that's more relvanent because Spooner probably wouldn't get as much PP time here.

Why wouldn't he get power play time in Winnipeg? Boston had the 7th best power play in the NHL last year and spooner had 17 points of the 48 goals scored. Only krejci Bergeron and Krug outscored him on the pp with 25 points from Bergeron and 19 from krug and 18 from DK Winnipeg had the worst power play last year. His best skills are accentuated on the power play. He would have tied the team lead for PP points in Winnipeg last year.

I also don't like just eliminating secondary assists as if no secondary assist counts towards a goal scoring opportunity.

YOUR numbers bear out they are equal after slashing every number to the contrary out of the equation.

All of the numbers together clearly put spooner in a different class of offensive player than lowry

 

[New User Name]

With all the excuses coming out for why Trouba wants out how can anyone believe them. To me it's obvious he just doesn't want to play in Canada. We've seen the same crap with MLB and NBA players.

As a Canadian, that hurts, but there's plenty of Canadian players that don't want to play here too. Stamkos had a chance to come home but didn't. (in fact I truly believe he used Leafs fans and the organization to try to get more money from Tampa) Heck, Toews or Crosby could have played out their contracts and come home, but neither did. Though, two players did do that and ironically they weren't Canadian. Parise and Suter, both Americans decided to go to their home state and you know, I think that's great. Loyalty to their home state and their family there trumped everything.

Jacob should have just said you know I don't hate Canada but I'm just not comfortable playing here and would prefer to play in the US.

Yeah, he would have taken a lot of **** for it but at least you'd have to respect him more than the silly excuses we've heard.

I'm not a Jets fan but I hope this resolves itself soon and the Jets get good value for him.

 

[Trxjw]

Agreed, plus Miller and Kreider both need to be protected I believe.....where as Ehlers doesn't. Major point if I'm correct. Rangers fan can confirm, but I know Kreider does, not 100% on Miller

Kreider and Miller both need to be protected from expansion.

 

[WaveRaven]

I don't know anymore.

Maurice's original comment: I look forward to Jacob walking back into this room.

Chevy's comment: We view Jacob as an important part of this team going forward.

Then, it's come through Lawless and now Bob McKenzie that there is a 6 year, $5.5 million per year offer on the table.

I think the Jets, and TSN likely know something more than they're saying publicly, that maybe he's not really that averse to signing.

Just my two cents of course.

Apparently they aren't taking offers and aren't interested so its just TNSE trying to win the PR battle.

 

[cneely]

First of all, this is not a Winnipeg board, please respect fans of other teams too. If you don't want to read a post, don't reply to it. Put me on ignore or whatever.

And no, everyone is not saying that. You are your friends are. And I didn't expect anything else from you guys to be honest lol (for obvious reasons).

Just look at how many people are claiming that Winnipeg:
-does not need additional forwards,
-that there is no room for improvements at any other position than LD,
-that any other potential hole on the roster will be filled by kids,
-that only really players like Gotisbhere or Hedman and the likes makes sense in a trade for Trouba,
and so on and so on and so on.

I stay out of these type of discussions unless it gets waaay too far out of hand and I know I am right, and this is just one of those cases.

Like sorry to burst you guys' illusions. There are so many knowledgeable Winnipeg fans at this place, but no discussions can get going due to a number of people trying to police this place to make sure that nobody discuss anything they don't like.

Facts are just that there are a ton of holes on Winnipeg's roster, if the goal is to become a contender, far from every of those wholes will be filled through the current farm.

You guys just need to get a grip, like seriously. Your team is not perfect. Would that be so effin horrible to admit?

LOL.

I'm not even a Jets fan, and I have no idea what you are trying to accomplish here.

Yes, the team has holes, every team does. They are loaded with forward prospects, and have pretty much nothing in the pipeline on defence. Outside of Josh Morrissey and last year, Logan Stanley, the Jets have not selected a single defenceman before the third round in the last 4 drafts.

They have a glaring hole at defence. They were building the team defence around Trouba, and made moves (picks) that figured into that plan. For them, the only return that makes sense, is a young top 4 defenceman. That's their plan.

 

[aj8000]

With all the excuses coming out for why Trouba wants out how can anyone believe them. To me it's obvious he just doesn't want to play in Canada. We've seen the same crap with MLB and NBA players.

All the reasons you are hearing are likely not true. The truth is Trouba does not want to be in Canada and is trying to do an end run around the CBA.

If I am reading the tea leaves properly, there is a good chance that he will not be traded before December 1, and there is a good chance he will also remain unsigned and sit out.

 

[cneely]

This is a franchise that has been around since 1999. It has never won a single Play-off game. Not one. Its off to a bad start again. No part of the team really is looking any good.

Help me out, who are the top prospects not already in the NHL: Petan, Comrie, Dano and ?.

Just saying, please cut down on the attacks on people saying that more positions than LD can be improved. If you don't agree, well respectfully say that and expand on your view. Every time I visit this thread I only find attacks by the same Jets fans trying to police it and shut down all fans from other teams not understanding their own best.

Petan, De Leo, Roslovic, Dano, Comrie, Lemieux, Spacek, Lipon, Harkins.

You are on a sight called Hockeysfuture, it's not that hard to research:
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/teams/winnipeg-jets/

You'll notice one position missing from that top 9. Not a single defenceman.

 

[Hunter368]

Kreider and Miller both need to be protected from expansion.

Thought so, another reason not to trade Ehlers in any trouba deal with Rangers.

 

[lomiller1]

Why wouldn't he get power play time in Winnipeg?

He’s not the player that drives that success IMO. Forwards in WPG that slot in ahead of him now or in the near future include Laine, Scheifele, Wheeler, Ehlers, Connor, Perreault, Little.

Lowry is actually getting time there this year as a net front guy, which is worth a try because he generates a lot of in close shots 5v5. It’s looked really good but actual production remains to be seen. Even if Lowry doesn’t work out there, it’s not a role I see Spooner in.

I also don't like just eliminating secondary assists as if no secondary assist counts towards a goal scoring opportunity.

Second assists are highly variable and generally not as good an indicator of how good a player is offensively. In this case you can probably attribute a lot of Lowry’s low total to Burmistrov and Thoburn being his most common linemates. Most players point totals drop significantly playing with these two. For context, Ehlers had a stretch with 1 point in 18 games while he was in that same spot. IMO Spooner doesn’t do much better.

 

[wintersej]

He’s not the player that drives that success IMO.

Strenuously disagree. Boston had been horribad on the PP for years. Then they added Spooner. Then the PP became very good. Occam's Razor on that one.

I can understand you arguing that Spooner isn't what WPG needs, but your Lowry comparison isn't making you look like an objective reasonable poster.

From 2014-15 to 16-17 season.

5 on 5 P/60

Wheeler: 2.22
Scheifele: 1.99
Spooner: 1.92
Lowry: 1.03

5 on 4 P/60
Spooner: 3.95
Scheifele: 3.81
Wheeler: 3.34
Lowry: 2.24

edit: and I totally agree on primary vs secondary assists. Spooner finished 9th in the NHL amongst all forwards in 5 on 5 primary assists last year. With Hayes and Beleksey as his most common linemates. In only 15 minutes a game.

 

[allan5oh]

This is a franchise that has been around since 1999. It has never won a single Play-off game. Not one. Its off to a bad start again. No part of the team really is looking any good.

Help me out, who are the top prospects not already in the NHL: Petan, Comrie, Dano and ?.

Just saying, please cut down on the attacks on people saying that more positions than LD can be improved. If you don't agree, well respectfully say that and expand on your view. Every time I visit this thread I only find attacks by the same Jets fans trying to police it and shut down all fans from other teams not understanding their own best.

I think you're missing the point. There's many variables here such as:

- Waivers
- Salary cap
- Upcoming expansion draft
- The team is young with lots of rookies

Let's look at the forward position:

Little
Stafford
Wheeler
Perreault
Scheifele
Matthias
Armia
Lowry
Ehlers
Laine

That's 10 players who are either on one ways with nobody being overpaid, or players who need waivers, or players who should be playing with the big club. Let's look at the next group:

Connor
Dano
Burmistrov
Thorburn
Tanev
Copp

That's another 6 forwards. These guys are either waiver exempt and could be sent to the moose (like Copp or Dano who don't really belong there) or maybe aren't quite performing up to snuff. Tanev has been impressive for a rookie and Connor is getting used to the game after a mere 9 games. I'd say out of the 16 guys Thorburn and
Burmistrov just aren't that good. Both have contracts ending this year.

So that's 16 forwards not including guys like Petan, De Leo, Lemieux, Roslovic who all deserve a look this year. We're up to 20 freaking guys. Now consider waivers , the salary cap, and expansion next year (we might only be protecting 4 forwards, Scheifele, Wheeler, Little and Perreault) why would we spend assets to pick someone up that may not improve this group and would get picked up in the expansion draft? That's very poor asset management. We'd much rather see what we have. On the pro side in the past 8 months we've added Dano, Roslovic, Laine, Connor, Matthias, Tanev, Lemieux.

Why on earth would we spend assets for a marginal upgrade when we don't even know what we have? The player we acquire would also likely be exposed in the expansion draft. We are content with the current situation although Thorburn being on the big club is a bit of a joke.

We also have a decent amount of amateur forwards considering how many turned pro last summer.

On to Defense:

Right side:

Buff
Trouba*
Myers
Postma

With Trouba that's probably the best right side in hockey. But he's holding out. Postma is also a UFA after this year and will likely walk.

Left side:

Enstrom
Morrissey
Chiarot
Stuart

Much different left side. Morrissey has been a really nice surprise for us and Enstrom has been playing his best hockey in years. But beyond that Chiarot and Stuart are #7 guys at best. Let's look at the non nhl pros:

Strait*
Kostalek
Melchiori*
Kichton*
Hill (AHL contract)
Stoykewych (AHL contract)
Baker (AHL contract)

* cleared waivers a few weeks ago

Probably one of the worst AHL D cores. I see a VERY high chance of less than 30 NHL GP in the future of this entire group combined. Morrissey leaving really hurts the Moose very badly.

Goalies:

Hellebuyck - Goalie of the future
Hutchinson - Signed for the expansion draft
Pavelec - UFA and buried on the Moose
Comrie - Excellent prospect
Phillips - Lukewarm about him
Berdin - USHL goalie of the week, recently made 59 saves in a game

No need to upgrade. Again the cost would be too high (negatively affect Hellebuycks development, expansion draft considerations, etc.). If we pick up a UFA goalie do we send down Hellebuyck or put Hutchinson on waivers? If someone claims Hutch that means we might have to expose Hellebuyck. If we send down Hellebuyck that cuts into his NHL development and Comries AHL development. The cost is too high! If the goalie we pick up is contracted beyond this season that means their cost is high and guess what? We will lose them to the expansion draft.

Also consider the Jets drastically changed their defensive zone coverage (now its man to man) and how young the team is, there's just no point in upgrading any spot except one : LHD. The current depth there is very bad and it wouldn't cost much to get an upgrade on Stuart or Chiarot.

You're welcome.

 

[Paradise*]

Personally I don't want Spooner as part of a Trouba deal, but he's also being severely underrated. He's definitely an upgrade on Lowry (not even the same class). He's great on the PP, which has looked pretty underwhelming besides Laine. IMO he's an upgrade on the fragile Perreault and better than anyone in our bottom 6.

You may not like the deal (I'm not the biggest fan), but being ignorant towards Spooner doesn't change the fact he's a quite young NHL player. I suggest you actually watch his game more than the 1 or 2 times the Bruins play the Jets.

 

[compan]

Any leads on this saga?

 

[aj8000]

Any leads on this saga?

None, nada zilch, zero etc etc etc

 

[allan5oh]

Any leads on this saga?

I think the biggest development has been Morrissey. I can see Chevys demands changing and that now he would prefer a younger LHD in a package instead of a 1 for 1 swap. Obviously this younger LHD wouldn't be as good.

 

[cobra427]

We all understand your opinion, panic trade Trouba asap. Thankfully Chevy and ownership disagree.

For the record I do believe he will be traded before Dec 1st. No clue if it's for lhd or BPA or package, but it will be a good haul either way. As I've stated I don't think Chevy has even been seriously listening to offers yet since Sept announcement (best offers will be placed in last two weeks since Sept announcement). I do think Chevy was listening to offers around the draft but winning the lottery likely complicated his plans (and others perhaps). Around draft was best time to trade him, but fate changed that.....not complaining about getting Laine

Who said anything about panic trade? A trade would have been done the first chance they had this summer if they panicked. Waiting until the end of November might not be smart.

 

[aj8000]

I think the biggest development has been Morrissey. I can see Chevys demands changing and that now he would prefer a younger LHD in a package instead of a 1 for 1 swap. Obviously this younger LHD wouldn't be as good.

Personally, I do not see Chevy changing his tune for the time being. I think they will let him sit out rather than trade him especially since he is attempting to control where he gets traded. If the teams he wants to play for do not meet Chevy's demand, Trouba will likely get to sit at home and watch the NHL from his couch this year.

 

[cobra427]

Well according to Bobby Mac, Chevy has already made his choice, so the ball is in Trouba's court. Chevy won't trade Trouba unless he gets proper value in return. Trouba can either sign with the Jets or sit out the year. There is no option where the Jets take a loss of value by making a bad trade. It isn't going to happen.

The only option for the Jets is to add a Trouba level player. Whether that's Trouba or an equivalent player is yet to be determined. My guess is that it will be Trouba

Trouba market value: this summer>last month>now>November 29th>next summer. If Trouba is not playing, his trade value goes in one direction daily.

 

[Hunter368]

I think the biggest development has been Morrissey. I can see Chevys demands changing and that now he would prefer a younger LHD in a package instead of a 1 for 1 swap. Obviously this younger LHD wouldn't be as good.

Agreed. The very good play of Josh I'm guessing will allow Chevy to a younger lhd package or a combo of young lhd & very good forward.

 

[aj8000]

Who said anything about panic trade? A trade would have been done the first chance they had this summer if they panicked. Waiting until the end of November might not be smart.

There are hints starting to filter out that the Jets will not trade him before December 1 unless their terms are met. I am starting to get the feeling that they will let him sit out the year if he does not eventually agree to play for the jets.

 

[aj8000]

Trouba market value: this summer>last month>now>November 29th>next summer. If Trouba is not playing, his trade value goes in one direction daily.

And your point is? Maybe they see more value in making a stand. If Trouba is refusing trade destinations, it would likely not hurt the Jets to let him sit for a year to come to his senses. If he doesn't, let him sit again. In the end, it would be no different than 75% of the drafted players that last only a few years (if they even make it) in the NHL before washing out.

Personally, I really do not care which direction his trade value is perceived to be going. Thank you for your concern for the well being of the Winnipeg Jets

 

[cneely]

Trouba market value: this summer>last month>now>November 29th>next summer. If Trouba is not playing, his trade value goes in one direction daily.

People keep saying this. Can you explain to me your rationale with examples?