Trevor Timmins Part II

[ProspectsFanatic]

Our forward depth from the last couple of draft is probably the worst in the league.

Click to read more...

 

[Artaud]

Fowards are indeed weak. Habs seem to like to draft fast defensemens lately.

 

[jfm133]

Our forward depth from the last couple of draft is probably the worst in the league.

No picks in the first two rounds on forwards. We took two D in first round and no second rounder. What are you expecting?

 

[montreal]

continue from,


http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2008333

 

[jfm133]

Continue to overlook the fact that 6 top-90 picks out of 12 were taken away from him between in the 2008-2011 window.

The same way, when we will analyse the 2012-2015 window, we will have to remember he had 14 picks in the top-90, instead of the normal 12, and a top-3 pick. Looking at it now, even though it's too early, I think the crop will be Galchenyuk, Hudon, McCarron, DeLaRose, Lekhonen, Andrighetto, Scherbak, Lernout and Juulsen. I think they will all become NHLers. Not all in Momtréal, because we don't have enough room to take them all. Some will become trading chips, some like Andrghetto and Hudon we may end up losing for nothing, waivers or expansion draft. Also, Fucale is still a legetimate prospect, but too early to call on him. Goalies are a race of their own.

But let's say I am wrong with 9 players making it, at least 6 will make it. So 2 out of 6, or 6 out of 14. Galchenyuk, McCarron, DeLaRose, Lekhonen, Scherbak and Juulsen are the safe bets I think. They will all be on the roster in two years from now.

Sergachev will also be there. But trades can happen.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Thing is...how do people keep giving excuses to Timmins and keep saying how we should stop evaluating him and start looking at what the other teams are doing and yet you are giving what Timmins didn't have....how about what the Rangers didn't have? How about what the top teams in the league didn't have since their picks were later than us. How does that work actually? Praise Timmins all over, excuse him for what he wasn't able to do, yet not do the same exercice for the others? So Trevor had nothing to work with, but the others had 6 1st rounders every year? If only Timmins would be seen as a mortal, nobody would have any problems with it. The day that people started to bring up how he was the best or top 3, then, just be ready to get some criticisms about it. 'Cause at one point, you can't have it both ways. You can't see Timmins as the best because of his ability to find gems in later rounds (Halak, Streit, Grabs...) and then whine that poor him he only had late picks. Yes, he didn't have a lot to work with. A lot like a LOT of teams too.

So why do we keep talking about 2008-2011? Because look at what he has done in the past and hope to see something close to that repeat itself. And nobody can include 2012 and up 'cause it's too soon to tell. Though, 2012, it's Galchy and maybe Hudon. But then, do we praise him for Galchy? Or do we NOT praise him based on the fact that nobody praises teams that can draft top 5? Again, how does that work, if Chicago doesn't deserve praise for Toews...why should we for Galchy? People will say 'cause he wasn't scheduled to go that early, yeah, well depends what you look. Quite a few lists had him at that exact spot. Some others didn't. But it wasn't, let say, out of the reservation type of pick....THAT I'll give Timmins all the respect for the Price pick based on the fact that I don't care if it's top 5, it's a pick nobody had seen coming. As far as 2013, it is too soon. Lehkonen might be the only top 6 player out of that list. Still, you will have another NHL'er in Mac. But that should be it.

But Timmins will be reevaluated. People keep talking about the lack of picks during that 2008-2011....well it's not something that we didn't have in 2012 and 2013. 8 picks in the top 65.

I find it hard to evaluate Timmins when we've got poor development happening at both the NHL and AHL levels. And nobody's accountable right now.

If it's Timmins who's to blame? Okay fire him. Then let's see if the coaches can develop players under a new guy. If it's not Timmins then fire the coaching staff. DO SOMETHING though. Don't just sit there and watch as prospects don't develop the way we'd hoped.

Timmins had a great track record up until a few years ago when the new guys came in. That leads me to believe the problem is not with him.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I can't see how you can give credit for late round steals, they're essentially pure luck.

Brendan Gallagher in the 5th round? Great! Except they felt Tinordi, Mark MacMillan, and Morgan Ellis were better prospects. Pure fluke that Gallagher was left at 147 overall.

First and second rounds is where a scouting department should be judged. Thats where you're making the tough decisions.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I can't see how you can give credit for late round steals, they're essentially pure luck.

Brendan Gallagher in the 5th round? Great! Except they felt Tinordi, Mark MacMillan, and Morgan Ellis were better prospects. Pure fluke that Gallagher was left at 147 overall.

First and second rounds is where a scouting department should be judged. Thats where you're making the tough decisions.

If you're cherrypicking one player, I agree. But when you're judging a scout on a body of work and he consistently picks out late round steals then it's more than luck.

 

[le_sean]

Well at least he didn't draft Frederick Gauthier. That guy sucks.

 

[jfm133]

I can't see how you can give credit for late round steals, they're essentially pure luck.

Brendan Gallagher in the 5th round? Great! Except they felt Tinordi, Mark MacMillan, and Morgan Ellis were better prospects. Pure fluke that Gallagher was left at 147 overall.

First and second rounds is where a scouting department should be judged. Thats where you're making the tough decisions.

Completely false. A scouting department is judged on the quality of the whole list. Sometime they will pick a guy later because they think he will likely still be there.

You often look good in part out of the mistakes of other teams. I am sure they had Bitten and Mete much higher on their list this year than where they were able to pick them, but they were lucky that nobody picked them before.


That being said, there will always be a part of luck involved on a single pick of a 17 years old player. Even a top-10, ask Edmonton. But overall, if you have a good average on the long run, it's not because of luck. Timmins have a very good average given where he was allowed to pick over 14 years now.

 

[Frank Drebin]

If you're cherrypicking one player, I agree. But when you're judging a scout on a body of work and he consistently picks out late round steals then it's more than luck.

We don't give credit to the development of these late round steals? I mean, how can it not be lucky that your 4th pick turns out better than your second? If you knew that player was going to be good you would have picked him higher than the bust before him. Maybe there is some skill to it, maybe they have a list of longshots that they don't want to waste high picks on, which is better than other teams lists of longshots.

 

[Habs Icing]

Timmins had a great track record up until a few years ago when the new guys came in. That leads me to believe the problem is not with him.

What new guys are you talking about? MB's team? Everyone knows it takes 4 to 5 years to see what you really have in a draft. MB's first draft was 2012. Add 4 years to that and it brings us to 2016. So we can only assess the first year that MB was on the job. It wasn't a great draft for us but it wasn't a bad one either. It looks like we're going to get Chucky and Hudon from that draft. With MB's second draft it is still too early but it looks like we might get 4 - with an outside chance of getting more than 4 - NHLers. With the third and later drafts the jury is still out. And this leads you to believe the problem is with the new guys. Pray tell us how you came to that conclusion.

Because I see the problem with the 08 to 11 drafts. And MB was nowhere near this team then despite what you may think. It was our good friends Gauthier & Gainey. In those draft years we had a combination of those two depleting the organization of draft picks and of Timmins making a couple of miscalculations with Tinordi & Leblanc. But that happens to the best of scouting staff.

But I'm really interested in hearing your reasons for blaming the new guys whose first draft should only start to show results this year at the earliest.

 

[feds91]

Ill try my best to do an all Timmins team

G: Price, Halak, Fucale
D: McDonagh, Subban, Streit, Emelin, Beaulieu, Sergachev, Y. Weber, Juulsen, Tinordi, Mete
F: Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Grabovski, White, Lehkonen, Andrighetto, Hudon, Reway, McCarron, Scherbak, De la Rose, Bitten, Gregoire, Kostitsyn, Kostitsyn, Chipchura, Lapierre

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We don't give credit to the development of these late round steals? I mean, how can it not be lucky that your 4th pick turns out better than your second? If you knew that player was going to be good you would have picked him higher than the bust before him. Maybe there is some skill to it, maybe they have a list of longshots that they don't want to waste high picks on, which is better than other teams lists of longshots.

Of course they didn't KNOW that Gallagher was going to be great. Nobody knows if a guy like Alexandre Daigle (as sure a pick as there's ever been) is going to be a superstar and better than Pronger.

Scouting groups are there to research players and have picks ready for later rounds. If you have talented people there then you're going to have better success than other teams will. Here's some of the players TT got 2nd round and later:

Lappierre
Halak
Emelin
Streit
Grabovski
S Kostitsyn
Latendresse
White
Subban
Gallagher

Pretty good list of getting NHL players in later rounds. However, the homeruns have come fewer and farther between in recent years. Some of it may be "luck" drying up but I think development has something to do with it.

 

[scrubadam]

Of course they didn't KNOW that Gallagher was going to be great. Nobody knows if a guy like Alexandre Daigle (as sure a pick as there's ever been) is going to be a superstar and better than Pronger.

Scouting groups are there to research players and have picks ready for later rounds. If you have talented people there then you're going to have better success than other teams will. Here's some of the players TT got 2nd round and later:

Lappierre
Halak
Emelin
Streit
Grabovski
S Kostitsyn
Latendresse
White
Subban
Gallagher

Pretty good list of getting NHL players in later rounds. However, the homeruns have come fewer and farther between in recent years. Some of it may be "luck" drying up but I think development has something to do with it.

Thats the one guy since 07. 9 years later.

So compare his first 4 years to his last 4 years and you might notice a difference no?

Pleks used to get 20 goals consistently. Last 2 years not even close. But is it a fair argument to say but 3 or 4 years ago he scored 20 over and over again. To keep pointing to his point totals 4 years ago to justify his production today? Same with DD 60 pts in 2011 so lets forget the last 4 years of futility because of that one year of 60 pts. Sorry if I am a "what have you done for me lately" type but thats professional sports.

But by all means fire Sly. Hopefully thats the problem because if not the next 10 yeas are not going to good for the habs.

 

[scrubadam]

Ill try my best to do an all Timmins team

G: Price, Halak, Fucale
D: McDonagh, Subban, Streit, Emelin, Beaulieu, Sergachev, Y. Weber, Juulsen, Tinordi, Mete
F: Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Grabovski, White, Lehkonen, Andrighetto, Hudon, Reway, McCarron, Scherbak, De la Rose, Bitten, Gregoire, Kostitsyn, Kostitsyn, Chipchura, Lapierre

Solid in nets.

Decent top 4 but weak bottom pairing.

Horrible forward group.

LOL sounds pretty much like the habs today.

 

[DAChampion]

I like him but It's silly to credit Timmins for Mete and Bitten.

We don't yet know if they're good picks.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

No picks in the first two rounds on forwards. We took two D in first round and no second rounder. What are you expecting?

I expect it to be bad, not almost inexistent.

 

[Stive Morgan]

Hey don't forget about Michael Pezzetta guys

 

[Frank JT]

That's why we need a really good draft in june 2017...

 

[Whitesnake]

I find it hard to evaluate Timmins when we've got poor development happening at both the NHL and AHL levels. And nobody's accountable right now.

If it's Timmins who's to blame? Okay fire him. Then let's see if the coaches can develop players under a new guy. If it's not Timmins then fire the coaching staff. DO SOMETHING though. Don't just sit there and watch as prospects don't develop the way we'd hoped.

Timmins had a great track record up until a few years ago when the new guys came in. That leads me to believe the problem is not with him.

I'm not about firing him. I'm juset about trying to make him more mortal. If somebody needs to be canned it's Lefebvre. No question. And maybe the entire freakin staff in the AHL. Then, maybe look at your entire scouting group, though I think it's been done a little based on the few guys that left by themselves and so on. Still, I don't think we've got the best for the Q. All remains to be seen....but they haven't found anything tangible...and they haven't been able to sell their stuff for players that would have deserved it. Like Mathieu Joseph for example. Though, I,m honest, he wasn't on my radar too. But that Vejdemo pick better work out....all great to go out of left field, but you have to succeed when you do those types of picks. 'Cause it's either you know things people don't.....or you actually don' t know things people do.

And going back again to this "but why do you guys exclude 2007....", well geez....this is being done EVERY SINGLE day for EVERY single stats. Why do people say "He hasn't scored a goal in 10 games....why do you not mention the hat trick he had at game 11? And so on. So when the point you want to make is about a trend....you need to choose the trend based on the opinion you have. See 2007 draft will always be seen maybe as one of the best draft by a single team in the history of drafts. Yet....let say we don't find any NHL'ers for the next 5 years....would people STILL go back with...."well...sure...BUT WE HAD THAT GREAT 2007 DRAFT!!!!!!"?

Again, yes we did have that great draft. And what Timmins was able to do despite 2 mistakes between 2003-2007 was one of the beset head scouting work in the history of head scouting......but we are past that right now and the lack of prospects we have and the lack of guys in the lineup we have that are drafted material, is due because of our lack of succeess in the draft since that 2008 draft.

But I'm not at firing him. 'Cause for that to happen, you need a very good candidate to replace him.....surely not convinced Shane Churla is the type of guy I want. If he's behind the Crisp and Pezzetta type of picks.....it is SURELY not the type of guy I want to rule our draft.

 

[Whitesnake]

I like him but It's silly to credit Timmins for Mete and Bitten.

We don't yet know if they're good picks.

True. But I think we are able to differentiate what it looks like and what it will be. Just like I had no problem crediting Timmins for this incredible 2012 draft. Which in the end will happen to be dissapointing, not because of the Galchy pick of course...but because 2012 was seen as great because of the rest of it and those guys didn't do anything. Hudon maybe....but we'Ll see. Just like 2013 was seen and still, for some, as incredibly sexy and the credit do go to Timmins for making it sexy...remains to be seen how valuable it will really be. But even though it makes little sense to declare a winner 2 minutes after a draft is done, it's still happening. But everybody knows it's just an exercice and not exactly the reality.

But you are right if people talk about those picks as if they are already known as great NHL'ers. They are not. Not yet. So let's credit him for making sexy picks. WE need to know if they are going to be great picks now.

 

[DAChampion]

I'm not about firing him. I'm juset about trying to make him more mortal. If somebody needs to be canned it's Lefebvre. No question. And maybe the entire freakin staff in the AHL. Then, maybe look at your entire scouting group, though I think it's been done a little based on the few guys that left by themselves and so on. Still, I don't think we've got the best for the Q. All remains to be seen....but they haven't found anything tangible...and they haven't been able to sell their stuff for players that would have deserved it. Like Mathieu Joseph for example. Though, I,m honest, he wasn't on my radar too. But that Vejdemo pick better work out....all great to go out of left field, but you have to succeed when you do those types of picks. 'Cause it's either you know things people don't.....or you actually don' t know things people do.

And going back again to this "but why do you guys exclude 2007....", well geez....this is being done EVERY SINGLE day for EVERY single stats. Why do people say "He hasn't scored a goal in 10 games....why do you not mention the hat trick he had at game 11? And so on. So when the point you want to make is about a trend....you need to choose the trend based on the opinion you have. See 2007 draft will always be seen maybe as one of the best draft by a single team in the history of drafts. Yet....let say we don't find any NHL'ers for the next 5 years....would people STILL go back with...."well...sure...BUT WE HAD THAT GREAT 2007 DRAFT!!!!!!"?

Again, yes we did have that great draft. And what Timmins was able to do despite 2 mistakes between 2003-2007 was one of the beset head scouting work in the history of head scouting......but we are past that right now and the lack of prospects we have and the lack of guys in the lineup we have that are drafted material, is due because of our lack of succeess in the draft since that 2008 draft.

But I'm not at firing him. 'Cause for that to happen, you need a very good candidate to replace him.....surely not convinced Shane Churla is the type of guy I want. If he's behind the Crisp and Pezzetta type of picks.....it is SURELY not the type of guy I want to rule our draft.

It is always incorrect, for every stat, to choose the trend based on the opinion you have.

 

[Whitesnake]

It is always incorrect, for every stat, to choose the trend based on the opinion you have.

Then it's always incorrect to choose a trend. Period. 'CAuse what makes you exclude or include periods?

In the end, a trend is just that. It is not indicative of how overall great or bad somebody is. Just that he has more or less success during a certain period. If people would not feel threaten by it....it would be easier to talk about it.

 

[Habs Icing]

But I'm not at firing him. 'Cause for that to happen, you need a very good candidate to replace him.....surely not convinced Shane Churla is the type of guy I want. If he's behind the Crisp and Pezzetta type of picks.....it is SURELY not the type of guy I want to rule our draft.

You make some good points. But Timmins had a fantastic first 5 years with 17 NHLers selected and then an atrocious 4 years after that with only 2 NHLers drafted. It's way too early to make judgements on the drafts after 2011. So will the real Trevor Timmins please stand up.

As with all complex situations there are many reasons for this discrepancy. But in my view Pierre Gauthier has to be a major reason for what happened between 08 and 11. He was hired in 03 as head Pro Scouting and we were the laughing stock of the league when it came to pro scouting. Gainey promoted Gauthier to assistant GM on the merits of that horrible pro scouting job Gauthier performed. That was late in 06.

Before the 08 draft I can remember hearing on antichambre that Gauthier had asked Timmins to change the way he approached the draft. He wanted Timmins going into the draft with a list of just 60 names. Gauthier maintained you don't need more than 60. That's one major reason for the 08 to 11 draft results.

Gainey & Gauthier unloading high draft picks was another. Gauthier also whittling the scouting staff to a skeleton crew was yet another. Timmins being divided between scouting and developing was still another reason. And Timmins screwing up on the Tinordi and Leblanc picks yet another. That last reason could be because of the lack of resources given to him by the miser Gauthier. And then again it could just be mistakes that Timmins made. Every head scout makes mistakes.

My instincts tell me Timmins was working for an idiot during the 08-11 period and we are seeing the results of it today. Unfortunately the results for the drafts from 2012 till the present will unfold only years from now.