Management Travis Green [Head Coach]

[Micklebot]

Bottom six definitely needs to start chipping in.

A little more luck at the front and little better goaltending and we can rattle off a large amount of wins

Pinto is really struggling, between him and Sanderson that's a lot of scoring we expected gone.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Pinto is really struggling, between him and Sanderson that's a lot of scoring we expected gone.

I would like to know what the bottom 6 xG is.

The power kill??

 

[PlayOn]

Agree mostly with what you are saying. But, it would be nice to find a high end skill forward that could play & think the game at the same level as Stutzle. That might have to come via the draft I suppose given that the Senators are small market Canadian team.

I also think we need another high end defenseman. Zub has already been injured a lot and I’d wonder if that will continue. I guess that could eventually be Yakemchuk (1 year, 2 years, x years).

The other thing is it would be really refreshing to hear Senator fans & team talk about much higher goals than just barely squeaking in to the playoffs. It seems like the high end of our ambitions and goals is to be a mediocre team (around .500). I understand why it boils down to this given history, but’s its rather sad to have such low expectations. We spend so much time scraping the advanced stats to find a glimmer of hope, but in the meantime our win/loss record leaves a lot to be desired.

Yeah I absolutely agree with all of this. For us to be a true contender Yakemchuk has to hit and we need to find Stützle a winger.

Expectations will rise as their performance does. At this point we haven’t seen the playoffs for seven years, I think just getting in is satisfactory. But I don’t think that means every year thereafter there will be comfort with just clawing our way in. Gotta start somewhere though.

 

[PlayOn]

I read your posts. You make some valid points, but are leaving off basic math.

in the 3 point era. A true 0.50 record is around 90 points at years end. Suggesting that at game 27, they needed to be at 29 or 30 points, just to be a true 0.500 team.

they are at 26...That alone is concerning. They are unable to play 0.50 in terms of pure wins and loses.

They finished 7th from the bottom last year. That earns them a favorable first 1/4 of the season schedule. You can see this by the 2 games against Anaheim. Games against Utah, Buffalo, Detroit, and the other low finishing teams from last year. They have yet to really go through the leagues upper teams from last season.

From roughly games 22 to games 65 will be against the top 1/3 and middle 1/3 from last year. It could mean a continuation of the sub 0.500 pure win/loss.

The World Juniors are coming. They will be on the road for about 3 weeks. All the while playing against tougher opponents than those they faced October to late November. That could guarantee a below 0.500 win/loss.

Come season's end, this team may just be at the 80-85 point mark.

meanwhile the 10 or so teams above them, have 6 that were last year's elite, so their schedule gets easier. And 4 were mid table, their schedule remains as balanced as it has been since the start. So all 10 could in fact improve on their results to date.

This team should have been and needed to be at 30-31 points, just to be a bubble team.

The problem with this is the assumption that the Sens can’t improve from game 5 to game 30 to game 60.

I think there’s often a desire to see it all click for the team one day and then they never look back. I don’t think that’s how anything happens, so then every time we lose it becomes some sort of confirmation bias that we haven’t learned. But if you watch this team they are slowly getting better over time. Whether they make the playoffs or not this year I don’t know, I think it goes without saying though they need to continue to iron out the kinks and get better if that’s going to happen.

 

[PlayersLtd]

I read your posts. You make some valid points, but are leaving off basic math.

in the 3 point era. A true 0.50 record is around 90 points at years end. Suggesting that at game 27, they needed to be at 29 or 30 points, just to be a true 0.500 team.

they are at 26...That alone is concerning. They are unable to play 0.50 in terms of pure wins and loses.

They finished 7th from the bottom last year. That earns them a favorable first 1/4 of the season schedule. You can see this by the 2 games against Anaheim. Games against Utah, Buffalo, Detroit, and the other low finishing teams from last year. They have yet to really go through the leagues upper teams from last season.

From roughly games 22 to games 65 will be against the top 1/3 and middle 1/3 from last year. It could mean a continuation of the sub 0.500 pure win/loss.

The World Juniors are coming. They will be on the road for about 3 weeks. All the while playing against tougher opponents than those they faced October to late November. That could guarantee a below 0.500 win/loss.

Come season's end, this team may just be at the 80-85 point mark.

meanwhile the 10 or so teams above them, have 6 that were last year's elite, so their schedule gets easier. And 4 were mid table, their schedule remains as balanced as it has been since the start. So all 10 could in fact improve on their results to date.

This team should have been and needed to be at 30-31 points, just to be a bubble team.

Have you looked at our last 15 games of the season...?

 

[Micklebot]

I would like to know what the bottom 6 xG is.

The power kill??

Name	G/82	A/82	pts/82	ixG 5v5
Tim Stutzle	29.28571429​	76.14​	105.43​	3.61​
Drake Batherson	35.14285714​	58.57​	93.71​	4.32​
Brady Tkachuk	41​	49.79​	90.79​	6.93​
Josh Norris	35.14285714​	20.50​	55.64​	4.37​
Claude Giroux	20.5​	32.21​	52.71​	2.29​
Adam Gaudette	39.48148148​	6.07​	45.56​	2.75​
Jake Sanderson	2.928571429​	41.00​	43.93​	0.93​
Thomas Chabot	2.928571429​	35.14​	38.07​	2.5​
Nick Jensen	2.928571429​	29.29​	32.21​	1.48​
Ridly Greig	6.56​	16.40​	22.96​	2.92​
Nick Cousins	9.461538462​	9.46​	18.92​	4.13​
Mike Amadio	5.857142857​	11.71​	17.57​	4.61​
Noah Gregor	10.69565217​	7.13​	17.83​	3.2​
Jacob Bernard-Docker	4.555555556​	13.67​	18.22​	0.55​
Shane Pinto	4.1​	8.20​	12.30​	2.5​
Artem Zub	0​	14.91​	14.91​	0.26​
Tyler Kleven	2.928571429​	2.93​	5.86​	0.81​
Travis Hamonic	0​	3.04​	3.04​	1.29​
Perron	0	0.00​	0.00​	1.65​

 

[Beech]

Have you looked at our last 15 games of the season...?

yes, I have.

the NHL, as with other leagues, work on a very simple scheduling method

1) the league is divided into 3. Top 10-11 teams, bottom 10-11 teams, middle 10-12 teams. Based upon last year's finish.
2) Games 1-21/22 are against your peer group primarily. When you play teams above your group, it is often at your arena and not theirs.

The goal is to ensure that by game 21/22 all teams are the same. So 0.500 wins/loses, but a tad above it, points wise, thanks to OTL. Ideally the best team in the division is at 30 points and you slide down 1-2 points a position. So by team 8 in your division you are at 20 points. Team 4 is at 25 points and everyone is within ear shot and hope!

3) Games 22-65 are the guts. A low finishing team from the previous season, must now start playing top 1/3 and middle 1/3. And they may/almost certainly will, travel. Top 1/3 teams start playing a slightly easier schedule. Middle 1/3 are largely unaffected.

Now we start seeing the cream rise. Top teams start pulling away, middle teams remain, bottom teams start falling.

4) Games 66-82 server a dual purpose a) rivalries. So Ottawa against MTL, Toronto, Boston, etc. build up the rivalry to pack the arena. Especially if Ottawa is out of the playoffs. b) return to an easy schedule for the bottom feeders, to give hope for next year. Hopefully they pack on the points and the fans base thinks, "okay wait until next year".

It is very straight forward. It is why you have to be careful of results and understand what is happening.

The Ottawa Senators schedule is as predictable as the sun rising.

Notice Boston and their success of late. Edmonton. A few others. The schedule has eased off a tad.
Buffalo, Detroit, etc. sinking like a stone. They are now in games 22-65!!!!

 

[Golden_Jet]

yes, I

the NHL, as with other leagues, work on a very simple scheduling method

1) the league is divided into 3. Top 10-11 teams, bottom 10-11 teams, middle 10-12 teams. Based upon last year's finish.
2) Games 1-21/22 are against your peer group primarily. When you play teams above your group, it is often at your arena and not theirs.

You made that up.

Also Vegas, Colorado, Rangers, Toronto, Boston, Carolina, we’re on the road in the first 17 games. There is no pattern.

 

[PlayersLtd]

yes, I have.

the NHL, as with other leagues, work on a very simple scheduling method

1) the league is divided into 3. Top 10-11 teams, bottom 10-11 teams, middle 10-12 teams. Based upon last year's finish.
2) Games 1-21/22 are against your peer group primarily. When you play teams above your group, it is often at your arena and not theirs.

The goal is to ensure that by game 21/22 all teams are the same. So 0.500 wins/loses, but a tad above it, points wise, thanks to OTL. Ideally the best team in the division is at 30 points and you slide down 1-2 points a position. So by team 8 in your division you are at 20 points. Team 4 is at 25 points and everyone is within ear shot and hope!

3) Games 22-65 are the guts. A low finishing team from the previous season, must now start playing top 1/3 and middle 1/3. And they may/almost certainly will, travel. Top 1/3 teams start playing a slightly easier schedule. Middle 1/3 are largely unaffected.

Now we start seeing the cream rise. Top teams start pulling away, middle teams remain, bottom teams start falling.

4) Games 66-82 server a dual purpose a) rivalries. So Ottawa against MTL, Toronto, Boston, etc. build up the rivalry to pack the arena. Especially if Ottawa is out of the playoffs. b) return to an easy schedule for the bottom feeders, to give hope for next year. Hopefully they pack on the points and the fans base thinks, "okay wait until next year".

It is very straight forward. It is why you have to be careful of results and understand what is happening.

The Ottawa Senators schedule is as predictable as the sun rising.

Notice Boston and their success of late. Edmonton. A few others. The schedule has eased off a tad.
Buffalo, Detroit, etc. sinking like a stone. They are now in games 22-65!!!!

Hmmm, never heard of the strength of competition broken up into phases of the season like that. You sure? Post a link.

Regardless, my point was that the last 15 games of our season are by and large vs weaker competition. So just pointing out the error in your claim that scheduling was an uphill battle from here on out. We end with a pretty favourable schedule for a bubble team which could be the difference between playoffs and not.

 

[LiseL]

Don't tell Vegas. Different circumstances but .. impressive none the less

What was the most impressive about Vegas was how they hoodwinked so many GM's during the expansion draft, and now, how ruthless they are. But it doesn't hurt that they are considered a premiere destination by most players in the league. Even if Ottawa became a contender, we'll never attract as many UFAs as Vegas.

 

[Micklebot]

What was the most impressive about Vegas was how they hoodwinked so many GM's during the expansion draft, and now, how ruthless they are. But it doesn't hurt that they are considered a premiere destination by most players in the league. Even if Ottawa became a contender, we'll never attract as many UFAs as Vegas.

What's unfortunate is that Phaneuf didn't consider them enough of a premiere destination to waive his NMC so that we could protect Methot.

 

[Big Muddy]

Yeah I absolutely agree with all of this. For us to be a true contender Yakemchuk has to hit and we need to find Stützle a winger.

Expectations will rise as their performance does. At this point we haven’t seen the playoffs for seven years, I think just getting in is satisfactory. But I don’t think that means every year thereafter there will be comfort with just clawing our way in. Gotta start somewhere though.

I think this year is an ideal time to jump up to the divisional seed level. Several teams we are fighting with in the playoff race are just struggling to be .500 level teams. Boston has regressed.

If we have the talent we think we have and have talked about, and decent goaltending (Ullmark is going to have to play a LOT of games), then this season is prime time in my mind. I don’t see any formidable competitors or obstacles to reach that goal. The only exception is TBL possibly who are still decent and haven’t regressed too much. But the team has to perform and be more consistent. IMO, destiny is in our hands and the divisional seed opportunity is there.

 

[Beech]

You made that up.

Also Vegas, Colorado, Rangers, Toronto, Boston, Carolina, we’re on the road in the first 17 games. There is no pattern.

okay Dude, keep drinking their Coolaide.

We debate this every year. Whether you choose to believe or not, I don't care.

I have heard this from people for the better part of 25 years.

Leagues safe guard this, because the last thing they need, is fans knowing this truth.

Once a low finishing team from an earlier season is 3-4 points out after game 20-22, the last thing the NHL or the other leagues need is to have people recognize that the schedule gets harder and they are finished. You now have 60 games, some 28-30 at home that you have to sell. Imagine 16 teams, half your league! And fans saying "Goodbye, we will drop in on you next year".

The NHL and all leagues live and die by "you say there is a chance!". It is how you get 19,000 fans and 190,000 media audience.

GO pedal your hype BS to others. Those that drink the Coolaide, keep drinking it and watch April come by.

Just remember, The Kids were Alright in 2019.. 6 years ago or will be 6 real soon.

 

[Golden_Jet]

okay Dude, keep drinking their Coolaide.

We debate this every year. Whether you choose to believe or not, I don't care.

I have heard this from people for the better part of 25 years.

Leagues safe guard this, because the last thing they need, is fans knowing this truth.

Once a low finishing team from an earlier season is 3-4 points out after game 20-22, the last thing the NHL or the other leagues need is to have people recognize that the schedule gets harder and they are finished. You now have 60 games, some 28-30 at home that you have to sell. Imagine 16 teams, half your league! And fans saying "Goodbye, we will drop in on you next year".

The NHL and all leagues live and die by "you say there is a chance!". It is how you get 19,000 fans and 190,000 media audience.

GO pedal your hype BS to others. Those that drink the Coolaide, keep drinking it and watch April come by.

Just remember, The Kids were Alright in 2019.. 6 years ago or will be 6 real soon.

You just have to look at the schedule, to figure it out.
A couple of SOS schedule list had the Sens in top 10, of tough schedules to start, for the first 15-20 games or so.

If you don’t believe the SOS lists, including points percentages of opponents as one of the factors, I don’t care either.

 

[Loach]

You just have to look at the schedule, to figure it out.
A couple of SOS schedule list had the Sens in top 10, of tough schedules to start, for the first 15-20 games or so.

If you don’t believe the SOS lists, including points percentages of opponents as one of the factors, I don’t care either.

Just get a tinfoil hat. He'll make sense then.

 

[Micklebot]

yes, I have.

the NHL, as with other leagues, work on a very simple scheduling method

1) the league is divided into 3. Top 10-11 teams, bottom 10-11 teams, middle 10-12 teams. Based upon last year's finish.
2) Games 1-21/22 are against your peer group primarily. When you play teams above your group, it is often at your arena and not theirs.

The goal is to ensure that by game 21/22 all teams are the same. So 0.500 wins/loses, but a tad above it, points wise, thanks to OTL. Ideally the best team in the division is at 30 points and you slide down 1-2 points a position. So by team 8 in your division you are at 20 points. Team 4 is at 25 points and everyone is within ear shot and hope!

3) Games 22-65 are the guts. A low finishing team from the previous season, must now start playing top 1/3 and middle 1/3. And they may/almost certainly will, travel. Top 1/3 teams start playing a slightly easier schedule. Middle 1/3 are largely unaffected.

Now we start seeing the cream rise. Top teams start pulling away, middle teams remain, bottom teams start falling.

4) Games 66-82 server a dual purpose a) rivalries. So Ottawa against MTL, Toronto, Boston, etc. build up the rivalry to pack the arena. Especially if Ottawa is out of the playoffs. b) return to an easy schedule for the bottom feeders, to give hope for next year. Hopefully they pack on the points and the fans base thinks, "okay wait until next year".

It is very straight forward. It is why you have to be careful of results and understand what is happening.

The Ottawa Senators schedule is as predictable as the sun rising.

Notice Boston and their success of late. Edmonton. A few others. The schedule has eased off a tad.
Buffalo, Detroit, etc. sinking like a stone. They are now in games 22-65!!!!

I guess they forgot to tell the Schedulers Sens were a bottom feeder last year, as our toughest part of the schedule was in games 1-21 with our opponents average pts% from last year being a 96 pts pace. It gets easier for the middle at 92 pts pace and then craters in the final 66-82 games at an 83 pts pace.